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Thread: Yemen 2016 onwards: an intractable war?

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  1. #1
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Ah yes, and regarding the 'revelation' of Nikki Haley's prop... erm... press-conference about 'Iranian weapons for Houthis', yesterday, here the photos:
    https://www.dvidshub.net/feature/iranianviolations

    Summary: one spare part from Shahid Bagheri Industries (no surprise: much of Yemeni missile stock was damaged during early air strikes by the Saudi-led coalition), few tactical UAVs, and some advice. But, and that's 100% sure, no deliveries of entire weapons.

  2. #2
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Latest news from the Red Sea coast is that another Houthi counterattack - one launched from Najiba - should've reached the area of Yakhtul. The latter is a minor port on the Red Sea. Because of this, the Houthis claim that they've cut off the supply routes of the Emirati/Hirak advance in direction of Hodeia, i.e. all the troops further north (in the Khukha area). The Hirak should've lost some 20 KIA and one of its colonels injured.

    Now, I'm not entirely buying this: the Houthis are foremost excelling at propaganda. But, some of their social media was publishing photos where one can see the sea, 'far in the distance'. Thus it's possible that they're at least threatening the coastal road.

    *******************

    In Beyhan, the Hirak and the YNA have captured al-Ulya and an-Naqub today - amit what appears to have been quite a 'manoeuvring' battle, which ended with most of the Houthis enveloped.

    Map below shows:

    - Red: Hirak
    - Blue: YNA
    - Green: Houthis

    *****************

    Ah yes and: on 18 April 2017, the Emirati Pantsyr SAMs should've shot down a RSLF UH-60 Black Hawk, in the Marib area, killing 12 crewmembers and troops on board, including two colonels.
    Attached Images Attached Images

  3. #3
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    This might be more of evidence for at least Hezbollah involvement in Yemen, than all the Trump admin and the Saudis have provided so far: it turned out some Jordanian volunteer, named Nasser Ali Ismail Tawfiq Ayad, from Madaba Governorate, was killed on 12 December 2017.

    Rumour has it, he was with Hezbollah in Yemen.

    This is the first known 'foreign volunteer' KIA on the Houthi side in this war.

  4. #4
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    The Saudi-led coalition is back to pounding Houthi positions all over northern Yemen with full force (and, at least along all the reports from such 'highly-dependable' and 'independent' sources like various news-agencies in Iran, Cuba, Hizbollah in Lebanon and Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen: killing scores of civilians).

    That, of course, it not flashy enough to catch attention of our glorious MSM, and thus remains largely unreported in English - although eagerly exploited for pro-Houthi propaganda.

    The 'story of the day' thus remains the discussion over 'Iranian supplied missiles', based on Haley's press-conference from three days ago. Meanwhile, the Houthis slam US charges that Iran is arming them. They are some very proud people, and have repeatedly - and clearly - said that all the missiles in question are locally manufactured. Thus, they expect the amateurs (like Trump & Co KG GesmbH certainly are, at least in comparison to the Houthis), and people in need of some fresh air (see: the Pentagon) to stop denying their achievements.

    Now, as far as I can say, the Houthis are really right. The last big missile fired at Saudi Arabia - the Burkan-2H that hit the Riyadh IAP after it was missed by four PAC-3s - had fins:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKFE1f1lu6s



    Plus, the UN said it had a skin made of aluminium - instead of steel, like in the case of North Korean and Iranian missiles.

    From my POV, the situation is like this: the Burkan-2H that hit Riyadh IAP was the last - or one of the last - intact 'chassis' of some Hwasong-6 damaged early during the war. Or at last the last one they were able to repair - by now. The Missile Force repaired and stretched the chassis, then lightened it by using aluminium plates for skin - all of this on advice (probably: written instructions) smuggled in from Iran. That plus a smaller warhead enabled its longer range. The advice resulted in specific markings (not all of which are identic with those on Qiams, contrary to US claims), and the new shape of the front section.

    Under given circumstances (foremost the blockade of the Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen), that makes far more sense to me than any stories about 'missile smuggled to Sana'a in pieces'. The Scud/Hwasong/Qiam is simply too large to be 'disassembled and smuggled' via Oman just like that.

    But, spare parts, and written instruction are small enough.

    That would also explain why the Houthis didn't fire any further Burkan-2s ever since: all the time during the second half of 2015, and for most of 2016, they were firing several such missiles a week. But now they fire perhaps one a month. Reason? They're out of such missiles (or at least down to the few last examples). Like in the case of Qaher-2s, they're running their stocks dry. On the contrary, if they could smuggle entire missiles from Iran, then they would bring in more of the same - i.e. fire additional ones at Saudi Arabia - like they did while they still had missiles.

    ...and like they do with the few remaining Qaher-2Ms (V-755s from the S-75M/SA-2 system). For example, according to Col Aziz Rashid (spokesperson of the Missile Force) the last night the Houthis fired a Qaher-2 at the 'Southern Command Centre' in Jizan, in Saudi Arabia.

    That said, the video of the Kh-55/Soumar was probably smuggled in from Iran (too).

  5. #5
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Quite strange actually, to read reports like this one in the wake of Haley's 'Iranian missiles show': Coalition forces destroy ballistic missile workshops in Yemen

    Namely, that report cites attempted firing of another Qaher-2M, on 16 December:

    ...from the desert of the Midi district, northeast of Hajjah province towards Saudi territory at dawn on Saturday (December 16, 2017). Sources said it fell in a desert area of the Directorate without any material or human damage.
    Returning to the original legend, the reporter then says:
    Military sources in the fifth military zone, confirmed that the missile launched by the Houthis at dawn was a Russian-made Volga air defense missile, with Iranian modifications, dubbed by the Houthis “The Destroyer”, according to what was published by the ‘Scene of Yemen’ website.
    So, the missile is the V-755, but 'with Iranian modifications'... :roll:

    ...this must be the most mis-managed PR-campaign in the history of modern warfare: at least I can't stop wondering, why to hell is Riyadh paying billions to all the possible think-tanks in the USA and the UK...?

    ****************

    Anyway, the war goes on at a higher pace than for most of the last two months. If my quick count of all the reported air strikes for yesterday is correct, some 60 were flown, including 19 against Hardadh and Midi in Hajjah, at least three on Sa'ada, 4 on Nihm, and more on Hodeida area. The Houthis 'responded' by a single Zelzal DIY-rocket fired in Jawf. Heaven only knows if this even worked...

    Air strikes on the port of Khukha (see my summary from two days ago) turned out to be my misunderstanding of Sputnik's mixing of reports about attacks on the port of Hodeida (and destruction of 'cranes used for delivering food') with reports about 1-2 air strikes on a village outside Khukha. I.e. it turned out there was no Houthi counterattack there as such: rather a raiding party ambushing whatever vehicles were moving in the area. This was then tracked down and repeatedly hit by UAEAF fighter-bombers and helicopters - in response to which the Houthis insta-claimed civilian casualties.

    Of course, the Houthis and Iranians claim 'dozens of Saudi-paid mercenaries' killed in every single engagement, and 'US-Saudi air strikes killing civilians'. Indeed, one of most absurd of their ideas published in this war so far, was that it was the US Ambassador to Yemen that 'incited' the Houthis to kill Saleh.

    I mean... really... :roll:

  6. #6
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Another 'Iranian missile' - i.e. Burkan-2H - fired in direction of Riyad: Yemen rebel ballistic missile 'intercepted over Riyadh'
    The Saudi-led coalition battling Yemen's Houthi rebels says it has intercepted a ballistic missile near Riyadh, Saudi state media report.

    Witnesses in the Saudi capital posted videos on social media showing a cloud of smoke in the air and there were no immediate reports of any damage.

    The Houthi movement's al-Masirah TV said rebel fighters had fired a Burkan-2 missile at the Yamama Palace.
    ...
    Yemen's Houthis say missile targeted meeting of Saudi leaders, at the Royal Palace.

    Guess, Trump Admin and the Saudis are now convinced that the IRGC is teleporting these from Tehran straight to Sa'ada - probably in a conspiracy with the crew of USS Enterprise (NCC-1701)...

    BTW, the Houthis fired another Qaher-2M in direction of Saudi and YNA positions in the Jawf province, too.

  7. #7
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    ...and here the video of the interception of the newest Burkan-2H.

    For those who might wonder, 'why so many Patriots'?

    Contrary to what all the possible experts, Riyad and the White House are claiming, Burkans are no 'Iranian-made Qiams'.

    They're de-facto 'DIY-Scuds': most are malfunctioning shortly after the start (the first detonated directly above Sa'ada, shortly after launch, just for example). At least as many are failing on re-entry, tumbling upside down, falling apart etc. Their wreckage is confusing fire-control systems of PAC-2/3s, and that's why then so many interceptors are fired in return: each one or two for 'one big chunk of the wreckage'.

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