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Thread: Yemen in 2016-2018: an intractable war?

  1. #141
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    Default Don't Politicize the Failed Yemen Raid

    Don't Politicize the Failed Yemen Raid

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  2. #142
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Back to The Egyptian-Yemen War for a moment

    Citing Post 135 in part
    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    Some nitpicking here:
    This is simply nonsense.

    For most of that war, the Egyptians had about 40,000 troops deployed in Yemen. It was only for a short while in 1964 they deployed more, and then their logistics system proved barely able of supporting as many. As anybody writing assessments of this kind should know: keeping 70,000 combat troops supplied in a country where there is very little water to find and even less food to buy, and most of roads are under constant insurgent attacks, is anything but easy.

    Whatever, crucial point is: in military sense, Egyptians were not defeated. For them, the war ended with a 'disengagement' similar to that of the USA from Vietnam, in September-October 1967.
    Readers may find an old, closed thread in the Historians arena useful: 'The Egyptian-Yemen War', where there are more references and a SME chimes in:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=2567
    davidbfpo

  3. #143
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    Oh, that list contains a few 'would be nice to have' publications...

    Here a few additional sources of reference:

    - ANDERSSON, L., Svenskarna I Jemen (De Tog Flyget Till Medeltiden: Svenskarna i Jemen), (Uppsala, Z-frlaget, 2008)
    ISBN 978-91-633-1930-3

    - COOPER, T. & Nicolle, D., Arab MiGs, Volume 3 (Houston, Harpia Publishing LLC, 2012)
    ISBN 978-0-9825539-9-2

    - COOPER, T., Nicolle, D., & Nordeen, L., Arab MiGs, Volume 4 (Houston, Harpia Publishing LLC, 2013)
    ISBN 978-0-985455415

    - DRESCH, P., A History of Modern Yemen (Cambridge University Press, 2010)
    ISBN 0-521-79482X

    - FAWZY, Major-General M., The Three-Years War (in Arabic), (Beirut: Dar Mustakbal al-Arabi, 1998)

    - FERRIS, J., Soviet Support for Egypts Intervention in Yemen, 1962-1963, Journal of Cold War Studies, Volume 10, Number 4, Fall 2008, pp5-36 (Article)

    - FLINTHAM, V., Air Wars and Aircraft: A Detailed Record of Air Combat, 1945 to the Present (London: Arms and Armour Press, 1989)
    ISBN 0-85368-779-X

    - GINDY, F. el-, Egyptian Eagles over the Golan (in Arabic), (Cairo, al-Hayah al-Misriyah al-Ammah lil-Kitab, 1992)

    - GREEN, W., and FRICKER, J., The Air Forces of the World (London, MacDonald, 1958)

    - HART-DAVIS, D., The War That Never Was: The True Story of the Men Who Fought Britain's Most Secret Battle, (London, Century, 2011)
    ISBN 9781846058257

    - LARON, G., Stepping Back from the Third World, Soviet Policy toward the United Arab Republic, 1965-1967, Journal of Cold War Studies, Volume 12, Number 4, Fall 2010, pp99-118 (Article)

    - MENAHIM, Major General K. al-, Egyptian Wars in Modern History (in Arabic), (Beirut: Dar Mustakbal al-Arabi, 1990)

    - NICOLLE, D., 'Arabian Texans: T-6s, Harvards etc. With Middle East Air Arms', AirEnthusiast Magazine, No.97, January/February 2002

    - NORDEEN, L., and Nicolle, D., Phoenix over the Nile (Washington, Smithsonian, 1996)
    ISBN 1-56098-826-3

    - OKASHA, Maj-Gen M., Conflict in the Sky: the Egyptian-Israeli Wars, 1948-1967, (Cairo: Ministry of Defence, 1976)

    - PIVKA, O. v., Armies of the Middle East (Leicester, Blackfriars Press Ltd., 1979)

    - PUCIK, M., Vvoz zbran a pecilnej techniky do zujmovch krajn bvalej ČSSR v sedemdesiatych rokoch, Apolgia magazine (exact volume unknown)

    - SCHMIDT, D. A., Yemen: The Unknown War (London, The Bodley Head Ltd. 1968)
    SBN 370-00411-6

    - STAFRACE, C., Arab Air Forces (Carrollton, Squadron/Signal Publications Inc.)
    ISBN 0-89747-326-4

    - VYHLIDAL, M., Československ pomoc při vstavbě vojenskho kolstv v arabskm světě v letech 1948 1989 (in Czech), (Brno, Filozoficka fakulta Masarykovy University, 2010. 100 s. Magisterska diplomova prace/thesis, 2010)

    - ZDEK, P. and Sieber, K, Československo a Blzk vchod v letech 19481989, stav mezinrodnch vztahů, (Prague, 2009)
    ISBN 978-80-86506-76-0

    http://www.radfanhunters.co.uk/

    Following developments in Yemen since, say, 2004, is a little bit harder - or at least I found it that way: found no serious studies of military developments, only plenty of usual MSM articles.

    Namely, I'm currently working on a volume covering aerial warfare - and then primarily operational deployment history of (in chronological order) Egyptian, Saudi, North Yemeni, South Yemeni, and then the united Yemeni air forces - in Yemen between 1962 and 2015. To a significant level based on interviews with Egyptian, Yemeni and Saudi participants, this is to be published by Helion, later this year.

  4. #144
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    What happened the night a U.S. commando was killed in combat, the first such death of Trump's presidency
    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...cid=spartandhp
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  5. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdamG View Post
    What happened the night a U.S. commando was killed in combat, the first such death of Trump's presidency
    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...cid=spartandhp
    Again just more confirmation that this raid was driven by Trump...Bannon and Flynn AND strangely supported by the SecDef trying for a "quick win" for the news cycle in order to depict Trump and hard at work fighting IS/AQ.....

    NOTICE that even after the first reports of this raid failure Trump trumpeted "it was highly successful"...since then silence on his part as well as Bannon and Flynn....

    I was one of the first pointing out that I had an exact copy of the video from Iraq 2006/2007 and it was just plain old open source materials....

    QUOTE
    Trump dined the next day with an expanded team, including Mattis, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Joseph Dunford and various military and administration officials, among them Vice President Mike Pence, chief strategist Steve Bannon, National Security Advisor Michael Flynn and CIA Director Mike Pompeo.

    CENTCOM and the new SecDef urgently need to understand just how they failed and WHY....

  6. #146
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    CrowBat...any confirmation of this attack....from Russian sources.....


    Russian media citing Arabic media reports of Scud missile attack on Riyadh, emanating from Yemen. Any confirmation?
    http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/new...are-er-riyadu#
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-06-2017 at 02:52 PM. Reason: Moved from Syria thread.

  7. #147
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Seems Houthi/Saleh reporting about this war is increasingly turning into a lame copy of Russian reporting about Syria.

    According to the spokesman for the (Houthi/Saleh) Missile Forces, the last night they should've targeted a military base in al-Mazamiyyah, outside Riyadh.

    That's about 1,200km away from Yemen.

    But, local sources deny to have at least heard some kind of an explosion, and there is simply no kind of confirmation for Houthis/Saleh really firing any kind of a missile at Saudi Arabia.

    Thus, I doubt there was any.

    Certainly enough, Houthis/Saleh have assembled three Burkan-1s from several old Scuds, and all three were spent back in October. These had a range of about 600 kilometres, and - as could be expected from such an improvisation like they were - proved anything but 'reliable'.

    A fourth Burkan-1 was assembled in January this year and fired on the 31st. But, while Houthis/Saleh claimed this 'killed 80 mercenaries' on Zuqar Island in the Red Sea, the other side didn't find that attack even worth mentioning.

    Of course, there is always a chance of the Missile Force assembling another - and even longer-ranged - example from bits and pieces of various other Scuds left from earlier times; perhaps even examples partially destroyed during earlier Saudi-led air strikes on Camp Bild ar-Rus (former major base of the Missile Batteries Group). But, that's unlikely to result in a particularly effective piece of military machinery (especially not one capable of reaching 1,200km away).

    Overall, the momentum is clearly against Houthi/Saleh and it's certain they are desperate for any kind of success. That's the reason for ever more fantastic claims: first that with 'missile strike that destroyed a Saudi warship' - which then turned out to have been an attack by a remote-controlled or a suicide boat - that barely damaged the ship in question.

    (Here that attack as captured on the video system of the warship in question:
    https://www.alarabiya.net/ar/2017/02...8A%D8%A9-.html. Attached is a photo of the frigate, taken two days ago as she was returning to the port of Jeddah for repairs.)

    Actually, the Houthi/Saleh coalition is running out of money to pay their combatants, there are rumours about infighting between the Houthis and the Saleh-loyalists. Houthis have also imposed a strict ban on all sorts of cell-phones, digital cameras etc., in order to prevent any kind of reporting about what's going on on different battlefields, meanwhile.

    They know they are losing this war, and there's no way they can win it any more.
    Attached Images Attached Images

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    The "Yemeni Missile Forces" reveal their "Vulcano 2" ballistic missile that they say struck a military base outside Riyadh on Sunday.

    Announced by #Yemen Defence Ministry : New ballistic missile called [ Burkan-2 ] (Volcano-2). One hit #Saudi capital Riyadh : 5 more ready.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-06-2017 at 06:50 PM.

  9. #149
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    VIDEO: New footage emerges of suicide boat hitting Saudi naval ship.....

    https://www.alarabiya.net/ar/2017/02...8A%D8%A9-.html

    Not a #Yemen "suicide boat" on #Saudi navy frigate : Remote-controlled drone torpedo craft with explosives from a 2,000kg Russian sea mine.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 02-06-2017 at 06:50 PM.

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    All commercial ships reminded to keep AIS & other civilian beacons on at all times in transit Gulf of Aden & Red Sea off #Yemen.

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    Yemen is the first battleground in Trump's confrontation with Iran
    http://read.bi/2jURZiM

  12. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    Overall, the momentum is clearly against Houthi/Saleh and it's certain they are desperate for any kind of success. That's the reason for ever more fantastic claims: first that with 'missile strike that destroyed a Saudi warship' - which then turned out to have been an attack by a remote-controlled or a suicide boat - that barely damaged the ship in question.

    (Here that attack as captured on the video system of the warship in question:
    https://www.alarabiya.net/ar/2017/02...8A%D8%A9-.html. Attached is a photo of the frigate, taken two days ago as she was returning to the port of Jeddah for repairs.)

    They know they are losing this war, and there's no way they can win it any more.
    That's an outstanding video clip, Tom. I saw the Houthi/Saleh video and it was hard to tell what hit the ship, but your clip from onboard the frigate indicates that it was some sort of UUV, and a relatively unguided one at that. I would imagine that torpedoes would produce less of a wake...

  13. #153
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    What's almost 'amazing' is that the vehicle in question didn't change course: it went straight in. The Saudi skipper appears to have accelerated away, thus evading a direct hit: I would say the vehicle actually detonated in the wake.

    *************

    BTW, here another of beautiful examples at how when it comes to Yemen, our decision-makers are fed a diet consisting of mix of truths and literal 'no-information': after having cashed at least €50,000 for its 'work' (and perhaps two times as much), the European Union Institute for Security Studies issued the 4-page paper Whatever happened to Yemen's Army.

    The first two pages are excellent (well, down to such details like that the Republican Guards eventually consisted of 22 brigades, not of 9, as stated in that paper). Especially the diagram on page 2 is really useful for everybody's orientation. It explains the reasons for rifts that ripped the Yemeni military apart in period 2011-2015.

    However, the rest is shockingly useless. For a paper issued in April 2015, it can only be described as a blissful failure to analyse precisely the topic it's discussing: what happened with Yemen's Army.

    Namely, had the ladies and gentlemen of the EUISS paid attention, they would have discovered that 60% of that military has sided with the Houthis - which in turn is the primary reason why the Saudi-led military intervention failed to dislodge 'the Houthis' from so much of Yemen until this very day.

    In turn, the EUISS could've issued a timely warning of a prolonged war - and thus for all the problems specific EU governments are meanwhile facing due to their arms sales to the Saudis & Co.

  14. #154
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Via an e-briefing from MSF a first-hand report on the humanitarian situation:https://www.msf.org.uk/article/yemen-going-warzone-no-adventure?
    davidbfpo

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    What's almost 'amazing' is that the vehicle in question didn't change course: it went straight in.
    Sounds like me on hip-hop night

  16. #156
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    Yemen #Houthis lost port town al-Mukha
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=13...5920&z=13&m=b#

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    The war in Yemen: 40 photos of the conflict pitting Iran-allied Houthis against a Saudi-led Sunni Arab coalition
    http://reut.rs/2ks3QUe

  18. #158
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    Sorry but can't hear nor see this with 'Iranian-backed Houthis', 'Iranian proxies' etc. any more. Really, that's just plain nonsense.

    It was already back in April 2015 that US SOCOM officers that used to serve in Yemen, have declared the entire Saudi-led operation for a 'bad idea', and clearly stated:

    "These constant reports that the Houthis are working for the Iranians are nonsense, but the view is right out of the neocon playbook,” he said. “The Israelis have been touting this line that we lost Yemen to Iran. That’s absurd. The Houthis don’t need Iranian weapons. They have plenty of their own. And they don’t require military training. They’ve been fighting Al-Qaeda since at least 2012, and they’ve been winning. Why are we fighting a movement that’s fighting Al-Qaeda?”
    Instead, Trump's and his odballs are now babbling about a 'major confrontation with Iran in Yemen' and 'defence against terrorism' and whatever else - and this at the time that 'Vice President' and 'Deputy Supreme Commander' of Hadi's 'Yemen government' - namely Major-General Ali Mohsen - is well-known for having close ties to jihadists and Moslem Brotherhood already since late 1980s, and direct links to the AQAP since this was established (in 2009).

    Perhaps they could first show some evidence for at least one IRGC thug in Yemen: eight years since such claims were published for the first time (by Saudis and by Israelis), it would be about the time to do so.

  19. #159
    Council Member CrowBat's Avatar
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    And another Emirati base is about to emerge on the Horn of Africa, this time in Somaliland:
    Somalia's breakaway northern territory of Somaliland has said the United Arab Emirates can establish a military base in its territory.

    The Emirati government in January submitted a formal application seeking permission from the Somaliland government to open a military base in the port town of Berbera.

    The parliament of Somaliland on Sunday approved the UAE plan. The plan is controversial and the neighboring countries of Ethiopia and Djibouti are opposed to it, according to local reports.

    In Sunday's vote 144 lawmakers were in favor of the military base, two voted against and two abstained. Nine others opposed to the base shouted against President Ahmed Silanyo and were led out of the chamber by soldiers. Silanyo had spoken in favor of the base, saying it would create jobs in Somaliland.

    The UAE government is planning to establish a naval base with warships that would be used to attack Shia Houthi fighters fighting the government in Yemen, according to a Somaliland official who insisted on anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the press.

    Speaking at the parliament session, Somaliland's president said that the military base would benefit Somaliland most and help create jobs.

    The plan follows a multimillion dollar, 30-year contract for UAE's international ports operator, DP World, to manage Somaliland's largest port, Berbera.
    ...
    What DailyStar missed is that the purpose of the same will be for the Emiratis to fight the AQAP in Yemen, though.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-13-2017 at 08:29 AM. Reason: fix link and copy to somaliland thread

  20. #160
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    ...before somebody starts to scream about 'total war between Saudi Arabia and Emirates in Yemen'...

    Yesteday, a group of disgruntled members of the al-Hizam al-Amni - an UAE-set-up security service for Hadi, primarily responsible for defence from AQAP - opened fire at an UAEAF AH-64 Apache helicopter underway near the Aden IAP.

    Media then reported that the 'Saudis opened fire at Emiratis' - which is pure BS.

    Actually, the crew of the Apache in question returned fire and knocked out one of HA's vehicles. Perhaps killed three of dummies that fired at it (that's unclear). Those responsible for opening fire (including the head of the HA in Aden) were then arrested and Hadi meanwhile ordered the HA to be integrated into the Ministry of Interior.

    It appears the entire affair was provoked by usual practices of such Yemeni 'generals' like Hadi, Ali Mohsen and others - though introduced and then happily spread by nobody less but Saleh, already back in early 1980s - along which commanders are pocketing pays of their troops. They do this so that they report their units at 100% of their authorised strength, while actually keeping them at anything between 50 and 70%. Thus they can pocket pays for between 30 and 50% of troops that are not there (so-called 'phantom troops'). Whenever one of thugs considers his cut for not enough then he goes further and out of, say, 12 monthly vages he should pay his their troops, he usually pays only 10.

    BTW, all of this is why nobody really knows the actual troop strength of all the Yemeni military branches, parties etc.

    ...some lovely allies there, Trump wants to fight for...

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