Kazakhstan

[Azor]

Putin's Next Potential Target: The Baltic States

Highly improbable. This is from the same Atlantic Council that is desperate for trans-Atlantic closeness, irrespective of differing US and Western European public opinion, and irrespective of the lack of Western (Continental) European contribution to NATO, which is now a US tripwire plus nuclear umbrella.

Putin has carefully chosen targets where he would find some degree of popular support due to various ties, and targets not protected by other great powers.

I guarantee you the Baltics are safe. The less conventional response NATO has there, the more NATO will rely upon nuclear deterrence. Narva isn't worth the gamble when Obama has no "flexible options".

Putin will strike next in Central Asia, if at all. Any country with a significant Russian minority contiguous to the Russian border is at risk. China has a vote, but it wants stability above all, and has its own irridentist claims on Taiwan.

Honestly, what will the EU do if northern Kazakhstan "secedes"?