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Thread: Iraq in 2016

  1. #181
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    Northern and southern thrusts on Mosul have stalled, change in campaign plan coming. Read about it in review of operation Day 43.

  2. #182
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    Day 44 of Mosul Campaign.

  3. #183
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    Joel,

    Does the Iraqi state have enough trained manpower for a long "meat grinder" battle for Mosul?

    I assume from faraway that the Iraqi state would prefer not to use the Popular Militias.

    Given what has happened in Libya, in the battle for Sirte IIRC, it has taken a very long time to dislodge ISIS (a Post does refer to this on the Libya thread).
    davidbfpo

  4. #184
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    CTC's Sentinel has a long article by CNN's Tim Lister on the attack on Mosul:https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/the-m...to-the-horizon
    davidbfpo

  5. #185
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    Some Iraqi officers have started grumbling that political pressure led them to enter east Mosul without support. Also western, northern and southern fronts behind schedule and/or stalled. Read the summary here.

  6. #186
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    8,280 casualties in Iraq in November, most since June 2014 when IS swept through northern and central Iraq. Read about it here.

  7. #187
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    Quote Originally Posted by JWing View Post
    8,280 casualties in Iraq in November, most since June 2014 when IS swept through northern and central Iraq. Read about it here.
    Wars always seem to produce the most casualties during the initial and final phases.

    Remember when the Confederacy and the Third Reich knew that they were losing? Well, it didn't prevent them from fighting like demons to the end...

  8. #188
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    The question should be "Does the Iraqi State have sufficient CTS for a long "meat grinder" battle for Mosul?"

    In Baiji, Ramadi and Fallujah the CTS (ISOF) did the breach and initial clear, other forces did the conform and hold element. In Mosul at the moment the CTS is the force currently engaged in active offensive operations within Mosul. If the CTS culminates before ISIL forces in Mosul culminate, then the Iraqi campaign in Mosul is likely to culminate.

    CTS are a limited resource and take a comparatively long time to generate (6+ months for a CTS operator). There are other forces available, but they have not shown themselves as effective (although the Federal Police Emergency Response Division has some capable units and some Iraqi Army units performed well in Fallujah). The Hashd are a lesser known quality but after their experiences in Syria, Tikrit and Baiji are likely to have a degree of competence as well. Regardless of their competence they are not as competent as the CTS and so committal would very likely see a rise in Iraqi casualties rates as well as an increase in collateral damage.

    Then there are the political implications. Baghdad would prefer not to have the Hashd (Popular Militias) or Peshmerga committed into Mosul proper for a variety of political and practical purposes. Not only would their presence be unhelpful in assuaging Sunni fears, they might change to ethnic (a blunt term, but one that will suffice) balance or footprint on the ground and their use would enable them politically - at the expense of Abadi's government.


    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    Joel,

    Does the Iraqi state have enough trained manpower for a long "meat grinder" battle for Mosul?

    I assume from faraway that the Iraqi state would prefer not to use the Popular Militias.

    Given what has happened in Libya, in the battle for Sirte IIRC, it has taken a very long time to dislodge ISIS (a Post does refer to this on the Libya thread).
    Last edited by Red Rat; 12-02-2016 at 10:59 PM. Reason: Typo
    RR

    "War is an option of difficulties"

  9. #189
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    Review of Day 46 of Mosul Campaign.

  10. #190
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    Day 47 of Mosul campaign.

  11. #191
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    Agree with what RR said, but it's not just the Golden Division going through Mosul right now. It doesn't have the manpower to do that. They've been joined by elements of the 9th and 15th Divisions as well. More forces will probably be shifted there as well because the northern and southern fronts are completely stalled.

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    Day 48 of Mosul campaign review.

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    Review of Day 49 of Mosul campaign.

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    Day 50 of Mosul campaign.

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    Day 51 of Mosul campaign.

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    Review of Day 52 of Mosul campaign.

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    Day 53 of Mosul operation.

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    Important read. Iraqi intel officers say they have deal with Pres. Assad to fight IS in Syria after Mosul freed and want to bomb Raqqa.

    http://abcnews.go.com/International/...mosul-44080169

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    Day 54 of Mosul campaign.

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    Day 55 of Mosul offensive.

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