Four quotes from the Vedantam article:

"...the likelihood of a great power winning an asymmetrical war went from 85 percent during 1800-1850 to 21 percent during 1950-2003."

"The more industrialized a powerful country becomes, the more its military becomes technologically powerful, the less effective it seems to be in an asymmetrical war."

"The rise of nationalism over the past two centuries and the revulsion that colonialism now inspires might also explain the declining ability of major powers to subjugate weaker nations."

"While the findings are of immediate interest because of the situation in Iraq, the social scientists are really trying to address a systemic issue: America has gotten stuck in the Hollywood notion that a military with ever more powerful armaments is a more effective military."


I would love to get a full copy of the report this article is based on. It opens up many questions. Least of all what has been the effect of the communications and transportation advancements: the speed of horse and sail 1800-1850 to the speed of airplanes, radios and digital sat com. Also what role has the change in sensabilities had on these operations (particularly to the US and Western Powers). For instance: In 1800 a white male could own slaves, and generally treat them worse than draft animals, a ships captain was omnipotent holding the right to life and death at sea, orders from the President to an Expeditionary force would cover six month blocks of time or more. Further the average in-country tour was measured in years not months. Colonialism, manifest destiny, superior races, civilizing effects, were all considered normal practice and accepted while genocide was not even heard of. The world was a fundamentally different place.

The thesis analogies are good to work with but they sound more like excuses as to why we (US) are not 'winning' today. Does the actual report offer anything remotely resembling a solution to the stated problem?

While I fully believe there is no cookie cutter answer to small wars, there are trends. There are successful tactical-operational and strategic actions that can bring about victory in small wars regardless of the size-strength and capability of a nation. But again as I have not seen the actual thesis yet I withold any further comment.