Don't Send a Lion to Catch a Mouse

[John T. Fishel]

Tom and others,

The full cite is "Insurgency & counterinsurgency: Toward a New Analytical Approach" in SMALL WARS & INSURGENCIES, Vol 3 No 3 winter 1992, Frank Cass, London.

"43 Internal Conflicts Involving Western Powers 1945 -1983"
1. Chinese Revolution Ph V 1945 -49
2. Vietnamese War for Independence 1945 -54
3. Israel War for Independence 1945 - 49
4. Indonesian War for Independence 1945 - 47
5. Algerian Troubles 1945
6. Greek Civil War 1945 - 49
7. Madagascar Uprising 1947
8. Malaya 1948 - 60
9. Huk Rebellion 1948 - 54
10. Colombia (La Violencia) 1948 - 53
11. Mau Mau 1952 - 56
12. Shifta Insurgency Eritrea 1946 - 52
13. Morocco Indepandence 1952 -56
14. Cyprus 1955 -59
15. Guatemalan Coup 1954
16. Algeria 1954 - 62
17. Vietnames Reunification Ph I 1954 - 62
18. Cameroon Civil War 1960 - 61
19. Cuba 1956 - 59
20. Spanish Morocco 1957 - 58
21. Muscat-Oman 1957 -59
22. Togoland 1957
23. Jordan 1958
24. Angola 1960 - 75
25. Venezuela 1961 -64
26. Bay of Pigs 1961
27. Vietnamese Reunification Ph II 1962 - 73
28. Brunei 1962
29. Guinea Bissau Ind Ph I 1962 -66
30. Oman 1965 - 75
31. Aden 1964 -67
32. Rafdan 1964
33. Mozambique 1964 - 74
34. Aden Crisis 1966 - 67
35. Guatemala 1966 -68
36. Bolivia 1967
37. Equatorial Africa 1969
38. Argentina 1970 -80
39. Moros 1972 -83
40. Uruguay 1972 - 80
41. Namibia Ph I 1973 - 80
42. Nicaragua 1972 - 79
43. Central African Empire 1979

Although there can be some argument, my count of these has 14 cases where the Western Power was on the losing end of the conflict. 14 of 43 (33%).

[Tom Odom]

John

I would add the following to the list:

Congo 1960-1963: Belgium, US, UN: Government and UN "win"

Subset Katangan Secession: Belgium versus Congo, US, and UN: Congo win

Congo 1963-1965 US, Belgium, Congo versus Simbas with some later PRC assistance: Congo win

Angola 1975-1977(?) US, Holden Roberto (FNLA), Zaire versus MPLA, Cuba, USSR: MPLA "win"

Zaire 1977-1978 (Shaba 1 and 2) France, Belgium, US, Morocco, Zaire versus East Germany, Angola; Zaire win

That would make the total 47 with 15 cases where the Western power lost.

Best

Tom