Syria in 2016: an exchange on what to do

[mwe12]

BTW, mwe12, I find it outright ironic you're complaining about all the 'Islamist groups in Syria', and in next sentence cite al-Jazeera, which in turn is citing the leader of the Islamic Front - an Islamist group in control of the first place in Syria (insurgent-held Eastern Ghouta) where free elections were held in nearly 70 years...

Citing Qatar state TV, to get info out of the horses mouth, is no more an endorsement of that vile terrorist supporting regime, than citing Sputnik or RT is of harboring a man-crush towards bare-chested Russian manlets. Single handledly doubled their clicks based on the fall of AJA.

If an American tried to join the IF they would also end up a federal prisoner.

...yup, and that's so precisely because people are so '100% sure' about that illusion that all these are 'Islamist groups' and there is 'only a handful of secular pro-democracy people'...

Well my friend that is the reality of it. There is minimal public support (and no public campaign) to help these guys, despite years of an aggressive media campaign and the MSM carrying water for them, including the use of the term "moderate." Really a remarkable story as to between horrible beliefs, massacres, beheadings, civilians in cages, suicide bombers, and AQ, these guys (and their GCC/Turkish supporters) basically discredited themselves.

They would have been good to have learned from the PKK as to how to hide the smell and at least pretend.

on Jan 25, 2016 4:14pm EST
Related: World
Attack targeting Ahrar al-Sham group in Syria kills 23, monitor says
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mi...-idUSKCN0V31FV

A suicide bomber driving a fuel truck killed at least 23 people on Monday when he blew himself up at a checkpoint run by the Islamist group Ahrar al-Sham in Syria's northern city of Aleppo, a monitoring group said.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that four of the group's commanders, other members of the group and four civilians are believed to be among those killed.

It said that the attack in the city's Sukari neighbourhood destroyed three nearby buildings and wounded dozens of people. More were believed to be buried under rubble. Ahrar al-Sham officials were not immediately available for comment.

In addition, a Russian air strike killed 12 people, including a local commander of the group, in the northwestern province of Idlib, the monitoring group said. It was not immediately clear where the warplane struck. The Observatory said it targeted the commander's house, but rebel sources said it struck an office of the group.

(Reporting by Mariam Karouny; Editing by Larry King)

[mwe12]

===

https://www.rt.com/news/330085-syria...a-deir-ez-zor/
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Supported by Russian war planes, Syrian government troops have been successful in defeating Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) militants in Latakia province. In the past 24 hours, more than 92 square kilometers (35 square miles) of territories were regained from terrorist groups. The Syrian Army has regained control over 28 towns, including the strategically important town of Rabia in Latakia.

Having lost their advantage in western parts of the country, IS command has now decided to concentrate its forces on trying to seize the city of Deir ez-Zor, the largest city in the eastern part of Syria, the Russian Defense Ministry said. Up to 2,000 heavily armed militants have been redeployed by IS to the region, the ministry added, citing data received from Syrian opposition and the information center in Baghdad.
.............
Nearly 500 terrorist targets in Syria have been hit by Russian airstrikes in Syria over the course of three days, starting from Friday, the Defense Ministry reported.

Russian military aviation conducted 169 sorties between January 22-24, supporting the ground offensive of the Syrian Army and patriotic opposition forces from the air, Lieutenant General Sergey Rudskoy, chief of the main operations department of the Russian General Staff announced on Monday.

From 70 to 100 sorties to target terrorists in the country are carried out on a daily basis, the ministry added.

Terrorist command center destroyed by Syrian army backed by Russian air group World January 26, 21:35 UTC+3 The operation was of major importance since the city of Sheikh Maskin was surrounded by a number of commanding hills that could be used to control roads used by terrorists to supply material © Alexander Elistratov/TASS Archive Read also Lavrov: Russian air group's operation turned the tide in Syria LATAKIA, January 26. /TASS/. Syria’s government army backed by militias and Russia’s air group has destroyed a command center and control posts of terrorist organizations in the country’s southwestern provinces, Brigadier General Ali Maihoub, the official spokesman for the Syrian Armed Forces told reporters on Tuesday. "On Tuesday morning, Syrian army units in collaboration with militia groups and support from the Russian air group and the Syrian Air Forces took control over Sheikh Maskin and northern suburbs of Daraa. The area of the deployment of the 82 brigade and the Alish height were taken under control as a result of successful tactical actions," he said, adding that a command center and control posts of terrorist organizations had been destroyed and serious damage had been done to their weapons and manpower. He said the operation was of major importance since the city of Sheikh Maskin was surrounded by a number of commanding hills that could be used to control roads used by terrorists to supply material and to ensure security of areas adjacent to the international highway linking Damascus and Daraa. Russia’s aerospace forces launched pinpoint strikes against the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra targets in Syria on September 30 after the Federation Council upper parliament house unanimously approved President Vladimir Putin’s request for the use of the armed forces against terrorists in Syria. The Russian air group in Syria comprises more than 50 warplanes and helicopters, including Su-34 and Su-24M bombers, Su-25 attack aircraft, Su-30SM fighters and Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters. Air strikes are delivered at military hardware, communications centers, transport vehicles, munitions depots and other terrorist infrastructure facilities. The military operation is conducted at the request of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Russia has repeatedly said it does not plan to take part in any ground operations in Syria.

More:
http://tass.ru/en/world/852412

[mwe12]

What would you suggest them to do - especially since your president (and not only him, of course: all the Western governments) is so hapily ignoring the fact that the JAN is supported by such 'most important non-NATO allies' like Qatar and Turkey (the same ones, BTW, that already turned Libya into a mess)?

I'm suggesting we let Russia/Assad/Hezbollah/Iran/PKK flatten JAN/IF/FSA/ISIS - and bleed themselves and the backers of those groups out in the process. And we (America) should drone strike ISIS/IF/JAN in the process.

...and exactly how do you want to know there are 'new Taliban' in Syria...?

When asked about Ahrar al-Sham’s relationship with al-Qaeda in Syria, Aboud made clear that their disagreement was not fundamental: “They, like other Islamic groups, my brother, we meet with them in points and disagree on other points and militarily meet in matters of tactics and disagree with them on other tactics… We may agree with them that Islam is the adjudicator of our work and we may disagree on some points.”

When asked how the post-Assad regime would be selected, Aboud endorsed anything other than democracy: “The method of selecting a ruler varies in the Islamic state. There are those like today’s monarchies, for example, where the king appoints his successor, and also there are those where leaders are selected by senior nobles and wise men, and there are those consulted by citizens. All these methods are legitimate and nothing is wrong with them.”

But he described “democracy” as a “sword hanging on everyone that Western powers want… Democracy is to control people via people according to what they think of rules. We say that we have a Divine system prescribed for his Caliph and slaves… It is the system where the rule is for the pure Islamic law. Allah’s law is complete, and you need only consider the texts and derive rules.”
- See more at: http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns....bqSYXtta.dpuf

How often?

http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=41672

The dead are : 792 civilians ( 180 children, and 116 women ), 496 men and young men, 655 IS, and 924 rebels and Jabhat al-Nusra including non-Syrian militants.

End of last year from a pro-terrorist/insurgent source. That seems pretty busy to me. Two terrorists for every "civilian" (which don't seem to have all that many women among them).

If so: mind explaining what 'Islamic State' (aka IS formerly ISIS/ISIL) was ever there in Latakia?

Flattening JAN/FSA/IF is perfectly fine. Would have been pretty dumb to ignore them.

Nope. He's not genocidal - if you prefer to ignore the number of his victims.

He is not genocidal even with those numbers.

Instead, he's such a lovely character that I would recommend people like you to try living under his rule - for a week or so, at least.

Wouldn't want to live under the IF/JAN either.

So, Iranian nukes are not important any more; and that lovely clique in Tehran - that, just BTW, is teaching the entire neighbourhood how to oppress and terrorise own population first and foremost - are now best friends, right?

Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia... Axis of Saints there.

=========
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/25/politi...rts/index.html

Al-Nusra is "much more dangerous to the U.S. than the ISIS model in the long run," according to the authors of a report labeling both groups "existential" threats. The report was released last week by the Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute.

The report criticizes the administration's ISIS-centric strategy, saying, "Any strategy that leaves Jabhat al-Nusra in place will fail to secure the American homeland."
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In fact, Kagan warned that al Qaeda's Syrian branch represented a longer-term and more intractable threat than ISIS and that targeting al-Nusra would be more difficult than targeting the other group, both of which take advantage of the chaos of the Syrian civil war to expand their reach.

"Al-Nusra is quietly intertwining itself with the Syrian population and Syrian opposition. ... They are waiting in the wings to pick up the mantle of global jihad once ISIS falls," she said.

RELATED: What is al Nusra Front?

Peace talks between the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and select rebel groups are tentatively scheduled to begin this month in Geneva, Switzerland, with the United States hoping that a resolution to the conflict will curtail the power of ISIS and other terror groups.

Al-Nusra, like ISIS, won't be participating in the talks, but the report argues that al-Nusra is "a spoiler that will almost certainly cause the current strategy in Syria to fail."

The State Department has said that over 35,000 foreign fighters from 100 countries have traveled to Syria to participate in the conflict and that the al-Nusra Front attracts the second-most foreign fighters, ranking only behind ISIS, according to Nick Heras of the Center for a New American Security.

Al-Nusra emerged in late 2011 during the early days of the Syrian civil war and was initially largely made up of battle-hardened Syrians who had traveled to Iraq to fight U.S. troops during the American engagement there.

It has emerged as one of the most effective groups fighting the Syrian regime and currently controls swaths of northwestern Syria. The group holds "coercive power" over several opposition groups, serving as a sort of "kingmaker," Heras said.

Al-Nusra does "not have the same capacity as ISIS, but its greatest usefulness is as a base of operations" to other elements of al Qaeda that may seek to strike Western targets," Heras said.
....
Kagan said she believes al-Nusra has made a tactical decision not to attack the West for the time being.

"Right now, al-Nusra has decided not to overtly host attack cells because the al Qaeda leadership's priority is preserving success in Syria and avoiding being targeted by the U.S.," she said.

But she explained that the report still treated it as a larger threat than ISIS because, "We define a threat as having the capability and the intent. ... The capability is already there, and in time the intent will be as well."

http://syriadirect.org/news/rebel-in...heikh-miskeen/
..
Last Monday, Syria Direct reported on the rise of intra-rebel tensions between Harakat al-Muthanna al-Islamiya, of salafi-jihadi leanings, and two FSA affiliates over accusations that the former had engaged in a series of “kidnappings, assassinations and intimidation,” culminating in the abduction of the head of the Daraa Provincial Council.

The fear, said a local activist at the time, is that recent accusations “will affect the ongoing Sheikh Miskeen battles,” seeing as Harakat al-Muthanna has a strong military presence on the Sheikh Miskeen front.

That fear appears to have materialized. Harakat al-Muthanna blocked the passage of an FSA-affiliated Jaish al-Yarmouk convoy headed for Sheikh Miskeen on January 17, according to an announcement circulated by Jaish al-Yarmouk on Facebook.

Aside from that convoy incident, little more is known about the circumstances of the infighting repeatedly referenced by opposition media and citizen journalists.

In a video released Monday by the pro-opposition Nabaa Media Foundation, one Daraa resident condemned the feuding brigades for “chasing each other down” all the way to “the Jordanian fence,” indicating that clashes had reached the border.

Civilians and rebel soldiers who appeared in the Nabaa Media Foundation video were united in their demand for rebel brigades to put up a united front against the regime advance.

....

[mwe12]

In what fashion is FSyA a 'terrorist organization'? In what fashion is IF a 'terrorist organization' - especially for you, an American (if you are really one)? What kind of terrorist operations against the USA have they undertaken?

They are aligned with AQ, share the same beliefs, same goal (just right now on a national scale), also massacre civilians, and use civilians as human shields. That they haven't got around to giving us our next 9/11 is irrelevant.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...ical-state.php

Indeed, a representative of Ahrar al Sham, Labib Al Nahhas, published two op-eds in Western newspapers in recent weeks. The first appeared in the Washington Post on July 10, while the second was published in the Daily Telegraph (UK) on July 21. Both pieces contain obvious fictions. And both were intended to mislead a Western audience into thinking that Ahrar al Sham is something other than an extremist or jihadist group.

Nahhas wrote in the Post, for instance, that his organization has “been falsely accused of having organizational links to al Qaeda and of espousing al Qaeda’s ideology.” This claim does not pass the most basic smell test. Ahrar al Sham fights alongside the Al Nusrah Front, al Qaeda’s official branch in Syria, on a day-to-day basis. Al Nusrah and Ahrar al Sham have formed coalitions throughout the country to battle their common enemies, especially the Assad regime and the Islamic State. The two groups are blood brothers, a fact that has been recognized by some of Ahrar al Sham’s own leaders.

Moreover, Ahrar al Sham has been seeded with senior al Qaeda operatives. Ayman al Zawahiri’s top representative in Syria was Abu Khalid al Suri. A longtime al Qaeda operative, al Suri was killed in February 2014. In addition to serving al Qaeda, al Suri was also one of Ahrar al Sham’s most influential leaders.

After al Suri was killed, presumably at the hands of the Islamic State, Zawahiri released a glowing eulogy in which he described al Suri as his “advisor.” Other known al Qaeda jihadists have joined and led Ahrar al Sham as well.

While Ahrar al Sham has tried to hide some of these connections, its praise for Mullah Omar is difficult for its apologists to explain away.

Omar’s Taliban state, which Ahrar al Sham holds up as an example of a true Islamic emirate, was as radical as they come. Long before the Islamic State celebrated gory executions in its propaganda, the Taliban gained worldwide infamy for its brutality. The Taliban and al Qaeda have modified their approach to waging jihad by attempting to build more popular support for their cause. But their end goals remain unchanged. And Ahrar al Sham’s praise for this adjustment in tactics shows that it has also adopted a more gradual model for inculcating its beliefs into Syrian society. The Al Nusrah Front, which openly adheres to al Qaeda’s manhaj (methodology), is following a similar path.

http://www.juancole.com/2015/07/wash...s-taliban.html

The Free Men are closely allied with the open al-Qaeda affiliate, the Support Front (Jabhat al-Nusra). This is not a mere alliance of convenience. They have formed joint operation offices. They coordinate closely militarily. They have a common rubric in Idlib Province of the Army of Conquest (Jaysh al-Fath).

When the two groups of holy warriors and their allies took over the city of Idlib this summer, they conquered 18 villages north of that city largely inhabited by members of the esoteric Shiite Druze religion. The Free Men leadership gave control of the Druze villages to al-Qaeda, which promptly began stealing their property and killing them when they objected. Some 23 were massacred.

The al-Qaeda oppression of the Druze, enabled by the Free Men, tempted many members of that group to get off the fence and support the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad. In Israel, members of the Druze minority pressured the Israeli government to attack al-Qaeda so as to protect the Syrian Druze. (Israel appears to have an alliance of convenience with al-Qaeda in the Golan Heights against their common foe, the Lebanese Hizbullah, and brings wounded anti-regime fighters fighters over the border into Israel for treatment. Druze in the Israeli-held Golan rioted and attacked these wounded jihadis recently, alleging that the injure who were being transported in an Israeli ambulance were al-Qaeda).
...
One of the founders of the Free Men was Hasan Aboud, who in 2013 told an Egyptian newspaper that secularism would not be allowed and tried to assure its readers that “the rejection of democracy” does not mean domination, but rather consultation.

So, what's different between what you suggest and what Oblabla is doing ?

Shouldn't have given TOWs or allowed US export items to be sent there. And we should be drone striking JAN/IF.

How do you want to know who is Daesh, who is IF, and who is JAN - if you have no HUMINT sources in field?

We can hellfire the Taliban without supporting AQ.

What do you know about the IF so to be able to say you don't want to live under them?

See above.

By side that this information is completely obsolete, that plenty of up-to-date information has been posted in this thread meanwhile - indicating Russians have murdered nearly 2000 Syrian civilians, and SOHR cannot explain how they came to the conclusion that Russians have killed as many Daesh.... how do you want to know it was Russians that have killed as many Daesh - especially if your information comes from what you consider a 'pro-terrorist' source?

It's called a party admission. Even handicapping it a bit the VKS seems to have a better ratio of dead civilians to dead terrorists than the IDF managed in Lebanon.

Even with all the yellow journalism about ore dead civilians than ISIS, the Russians are killing more other terrorists than either and almost twice as many terrorists as civilians.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-fighters.html

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, more than 1,000 civilians have been killed during Russia’s four month bombing campaign. By comparison, the strikes had killed 893 Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil) fighters, and 1141 militants from other factions, the monitoring group said.

In dumbest possible fashion, definition of genocide is 'intent to systematically eliminate a racial, ethnic, religious, linguistic, cultural or national group'. So, if Assad - upon instruction from the IRGC (a terrorist organization by definition of your own government), with help of Hezbollah (a terrorist organization by definition of your own government) and PFLP-GC (a terrorist organization by definition of your own government), and with support of Russia (at best described as a 'hybrid autocracy') - is systematically destroying Sunni Arab population of Syria, how do you define what is he and his allies doing?

They are fighting in a civil war against an enemy who seems to really like hanging out with/hiding behind women and children. Would be a bit like accusing the 8th air force of genocide, and even then the USAAC managed to kill far more civilians from the air, here it is a deliberate misuse of the term.

You mean: you want to 'flatten' people who are fighting for their freedom (see FSyA and IF)? But you are against 'flattening' the oppressive dictatorship that provoked them to start an armed uprising, that has incarcerated dozens of thousands of them and murdered hundreds of thousands of them - and that on the top of that is also cooperating with (at least) three major terrorist organizations, all of which are staunchly anti-USA, all anti-Israel, all anti-democracy, all anti-pluralist, and one activelly working on development of WMDs?

Yeap. I am safer as an American with the anti-Assad forces six feet deep and their camps/infrastructure destroyed, than I am with the having a state/safe areas. Really remarkable that our allies created and funded such groups.

The hundred of thousands number also includes dead SAA/NDF/BPM and terrorists.

...all provided you're really a citizen of the USA... then why is your government selling them arms worth dozens of billions - and that every single year? Why is your government - and your military - supporting their military operations in Yemen? What is making such actions 'right'?

Lobbying, money and lack of foresight in the US government. JANs chief funder wants 72 F-15s. KSA is perfectly ok doing what the Russians are doing as long as it is done in Yemen by the; the same people who are demanding we put up a NFZ in Syria.

And? What does that report says to you so you can gauge how dangerous is JAN for you?

Being part of AQ is quite enough.