In Jan-Jun 2016 alone, #Ukraine lost 214 servicemen killed & 685 injured.
The "#ceasefire" in #Donbass long dead.
AND this does count the loses of the two front line "volunteer Regiments"......
Appears that the West cannot come to grips that Minsk 2 is long dead.....
Military expert: Russia tries to make Ukraine pass law on ‘special status’ of Donbas by increasing artillery fire
http://112.international/conflict-in...nbas-5921.html …
BUT UAF artillery responses have been limited to none in order to protect Minsk 2...at some point UAF is going to seriously return fire and they now have enough counter battery radars in place to be extremely effective when they open fire.
RS fighters in #Avdiivka's Promka, battle video, 21.04.2016
https://youtu.be/ttllAWULh_M
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-13-2016 at 10:43 AM.
OSCE showing its Russophile bias: Russian OSCE Appointee involved Russia’s Fake Crimea Referendum & War Propaganda
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1465595756 …
ATO spox: Hot spots in Donetsk sector: Donetsk airport, Horlivka areas and Luhanske village
ATO spox: Donetsk sec: hostile mortar attacks across front. Shelling of Putilivska mine decreased. Militants used IFVs by Zaitseve, Mayorsk
ATO spox: Militants fired from mortars, IFV by Luhanske. Total number shells fired in Donetsk sec: 159 mortar mines, 6 artillery projectiles
ATO spox: Mariupol sector: Hostile mortar shelling near Maryinka, Krasnohorivka.Several violations by Hnutove, Talakivka, Vodyane, Shyrokyne
ATO spox: Intelligence detected one flight of militant drone in Avdiivka area
ATO spox: Intelligence: Russia strengthens infowar capacities: Russian media is now working near Horlivka, Makiivka, Luhansk
ATO spox: Militants` center of information war in Novocherkask, Rostov region, RU, organized presence of RU journalists in the ATO area
ATO spox reports also "militant casualties". But RS fighters who die for #Ukraine not worthy to mention.
#Butovka
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/sta...93846541926400 …
Col. Lysenko: Enemy losses: 2 militants – KIA, 4 – WIA
ATO spox: Yesterday, 1 flight of enemy UAV was recorded near Avdiyivka
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-13-2016 at 10:57 AM.
Russian Su27s again over the Baltic.......
Latitude 67N SIGINT @Sigint67n
RUAF traffic in Baltic Sea consistent with Su27 fighter(s)
Donetsk on Jun 12 - Flashes of evening shelling
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8U3h_uO7HCk …
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/13-june...ing-shelling-- …
Fighting in Kuybishevsky district of Donetsk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jicc2CckfOI …
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/13-june...ict-of-donetsk …
AND we are off to the Russian shelling and ground attack games again tonight...AND fully supported by the Minsk 2 compliant Russia military
Marinka @666_mancer [vk]
18:26 skirmishes and seldom booms
18:43 battle intensified, booms became louder
19:05 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [fb]
"#Petrovka: booms become activer and stronger, panes vibrate in windows"
"Booms in #Marinka direction"
22:35 [#Yasynuvata] @GirkinGirkin Artillery started to work at #Promka
22:39 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza ...They started to shell more intensively
22:40 #Yasynuvata @GirkinGirkin "From the area of #Mineralne, 3 salvos went, so close, even panes vibrated"
22:41 #Horlivka #Stroitel @ahab9889 there have been few loud salvos from the south
22:45 #Yasynuvata @GirkinGirkin "I can see them shelling from the field, moto-dachas[?]"
22:50 Heavy outgoings from #Makiivka too.
Donetsk 22:50
Trudovska - powerful salvos.
https://twitter.com/rjpthjuljytwr/st...44484340879360 …
22:53 #Kostyantynivka @partizan201415 we can hear heavy ones again
22:54 #Avdiivka @tiamat007 One can hear heavy weapons from the southeast
23:10 #Makiivka @Shymanovski The horde men awoke
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-13-2016 at 08:24 PM.
"Combatting propagandists & trolls requires unmasking them and their tactics" - @STRATCOMCOE
http://www.stratcomcoe.org/framing-u...d-social-media …
DISASTER: Russia Raises Minimum Price for Vodka
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/busine...ka/572503.html …
Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-13-2016 at 09:10 PM.
Ukrainian fans in occupied Simferopol: "Glory to Ukraine!"
pic.twitter.com/QLXCBS9CJp
https://twitter.com/krymrealii/statu...099137/video/1 …
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/13-june...ory-to-ukraine …
To Outlaw 09
Outlaw:
I think we largely agree on Putin’s ambitions and the lack of confrontation from the West (although I see that NATO’s RRF has been tripled and 4,000 troops are to be in the East on a rotational basis), but I wanted to address Russia’s (dis)proportionate use of force under Putin. I would argue that under Putin’s leadership, the Russian military has become much more sensitive to avoiding collateral damage than in the past, and that Putin has deployed it relatively minimally, whereas former Russian (Yeltsin) and Soviet leaders (Khrushchev and Brezhnev) have had no qualms about using overwhelming force on an indiscriminate basis.
With respect to the collateral damage wrought but Russia’s military in Georgia and Donbas, the amount of damage should be viewed in the context of Soviet and Russian doctrine and prior operations. The Soviet Union was wantonly destructive in Hungary and Afghanistan, albeit much more restrained in Czechoslovakia, and Russia treated Chechnya as it did Afghanistan.
Russia acted disproportionately (and illegally of course) in Georgia, although this was in response to Georgia attempting to level a town without regard for civilians or Russian “peacekeepers”. Although Russian-supported Abkhaz and Ossetian militias committed ethnic cleansing in the wake of Russia’s advance south (principally expulsions), the collateral damage caused by Russian forces (e.g. Gori) was more to do with a lack of precision strike capabilities than with the intention of killing ethnic Georgian civilians. Roughly half of the Georgian civilian fatalities are attributable to Russian forces, and fewer Georgian civilians were killed by Russians than Ossetian civilians killed by Georgians. The military-to-civilian ratio of Russian kills in August 2008 was ~1.5:1, vs. 0.25:1 in First Chechnya and 0.57:1 in Second Chechnya. The operation was “clean” by Russian standards, and far less destructive than the dirty wars there that Yeltsin backed in the 1990s.
In Syria, Russia is assisting Assad and following his doctrine of attacking civilians in opposition-held areas and focusing on the FSA, IF and Nusra at the expense of Daesh. I have heard reports that the SyAAF has destroyed more rebel military targets per capita than the RuAF has…Nevertheless, we have yet to see flotillas of Russian strategic bombers conducting area bombing on rebel-held towns and cities in the manner of say Linebacker I and II, which Russia is fully capable of, although Russia has used cluster bombs and WP indiscriminately, and certainly communicated its displeasure over the Su-24 shootdown to the Turkmen tribes. On balance, Russia’s air campaign was largely symbolic and the real assistance has been the provision of advanced AFVs/artillery, crewing of these weapons by Russian SOF and most importantly the maintenance and repair of Assad’s AFVs. As with most wars, artillery is king in Syria.
The Donbas War is serious business, and Ukraine’s military losses there are analogous to Soviet losses in Afghanistan, on a monthly basis; even 29 KIA/MIA per month would be on par with Coalition losses in Afghanistan and Iraq. With respect to civilian casualties, (pro)Russian-inflicted fatalities are far more on the military than the civilian side, with a ratio of between 1.27 and 2.53 UAF soldier for every civilian killed. Yet Putin was capable of taking Kharkiv and Mariupol and carving out a land bridge to Crimea, but didn’t; nor was he wrong in claiming that he could take Kyiv in a matter of weeks. Of the Russian soldiers massed on Ukraine’s border, only 10% to 22.50% have rotated into Ukraine at any given time, and given the overwhelming advantage Russia has in airpower and artillery (including tactical ballistic missiles), one can say that the Kremlin has emphasized deniability over defeating Kyiv and has fought in Donbas with one arm behind its back. Now the “separatists” seem a much more unruly lot than the “polite” men of Crimea, and from what I gather this is because the Crimean Anschluss was directed from the Kremlin while Donbas was taken up by “clients” with Putin’s “acceptance”. Although this gives Moscow some distance from Donetsk/Luhansk, it makes central control more difficult to achieve and it is unlikely that the “separatists” will disarm and return to alcoholism and unemployment simply on the Kremlin’s say-so. If the Kremlin simply abandons these men, it might well face blowback from an armed and angry constituency along the lines of France’s OAS problem or the UK’s Loyalist problem in Northern Ireland.
Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling is disturbing and seems more pronounced than at any time during the Cold War. In addition to the provocative rhetoric, leaks and exercises, Russia has also increased its deployed warheads which is against the spirit of New START, albeit not a violation until February 2018. Russia has likely violated the INF Treaty (albeit the R-500 does not appear to be deployed in a nuclear variant) as well as the CFE Treaty and various OSCE agreements. With respect to the INF Treaty, I firmly believe that the US wants out as well in order to counter China’s growing arsenal of I/MRBMs, but it wants Russia to withdraw first.
From a perspective of behavior patterns, Putin telegraphed his red lines to T’bilisi and Kyiv, but not his actions, which he did with surprise and speed. Therefore, I find it unlikely that Putin has any real plans to invade any NATO member after having engaged in years of provocative rhetoric and actions that have all but signaled aggressive intent. It is more likely, in my opinion, that Putin is attempting to continue the Cold War for domestic purposes as well as attempting to deter possible Western intervention in Ukraine, Belarus, Central Asia or the Caucuses. I think there is a strong case to be made that Russia will minimize its footprint in Donbas and turn its attention toward Belarus and Kazakhstan, as well as the NKO hotspot in the Caucuses. Much will depend upon further NATO or EU enlargement, may put Moldova, Sweden, Serbia and Finland in the crosshairs.
Militants fired upon Butivka mine w/ large-caliber artillery from residential areas of occupied Donetsk, east of Spartak - ATO press center
Combined Rus-militant forces fired 40 times upon Ukr troops over last day. Equally intense in Donetsk & Mariupol sectors - ATO press center
Mayorsk 6:40AM
"We are staying at the checkpoint tow. Artemivsk. Shooting fr assault rifles."
"Who?"
"DNR soldiers"
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/sta...73403362734081 …
Ukrainian Ait Force: Low-level flights of Mi-8, Mi-24, Su-25, MiG-29, Su-27, An-26, Il-76
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDjn...ature=youtu.be …
Azor....I would argue that in eastern Ukraine the wanton destruction of towns and villages as well as critical civilian and industrial infrastructure was not by accident but deliberate along the lines of Grozny in the 2nd Chechen war.Originally Posted by Azor
Prior to invading eastern Ukraine Russian military spent days shelling Ukrainian towns and villages into dust as well as the larger one ie Debaltseve and continues to do that nightly all along the front line and lately as deep as 10kms past the front line.
Even if they pulled totally out of Donbas Ukraine would be on one heck of a rebuilding project for the next 20 years.
Syria is an all together different Russia...there Russia is punishing the civilian population for their support of FSA against Assad by literally bombing FSA and non FSA/JaF/JaN towns and villages literally into dust and districts in say Damascus resemble Grozny.
These attacks are largely terror in nature as they have not really hit FSA positions and are focused on causing as much civilian damage as possible as punishment hoping to turn the civil society against FSA and for Assad.
The extremely widespread use of cluster, WP and thermobaric weapons are a terrorizing agent and literally meant to burn down say Aleppo trying again to force the civilian population away from FSA.
The damage to critical civilian infrastructure is again deliberate and total and again while they are not flying carpet bombing attacks straight air strikes are basically enough to create the damage we are seeing daily.
Kill one doctor in a critical area hospital and you kill up to 1-2K civilians over time.....the use of starvation is being reinforced as well by Russia again as a terrorizing weapon hoping to break the Sunni population to support FSA. Destroy the only hospital and you can create upwards of 10K follow on civilian deaths....especially when under constant bombing.
Taken as a whole Russian operations in Syria as well as eastern Ukraine have the same hallmarks as the second Chechen war especially when they focused on Grozny....
Right now though Putin is playing the "last man standing game" as his economy is actually far worse off than he wants to admit and the sanctions are not coming off and the UAF is holding their own as is FSA......AND he is desperately trying to maneuver Obama and Kerry into some kind of deal especially in Donbas before Presidents change out with the chance of even harder responses from the US that has not be forthcoming from Obama...we see Obama trying to do the same when Rice uttered the recent comments she could envision something being done on eastern Ukraine by end of 2017....but Rice forgot to tell the Ukrainians who have a voice in this game as well..
This is an interesting article concerning Syria and Putin.......
Playing Tic-Tac-Toe with Putin
http://atfp.co/25Swld3
Would argue on the nuclear front that actually the US could have already pulled out of INF as they have clear evidence of Russian violations as well as with the New Start agreement because the Russians have an old saying..."what we deploy we do not redeploy" and since "you said nothing we assumed it was OK...."......but Obama does not want to rock the so called "dialogue he thinks he has with Putin" because of Syria and Iran.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-14-2016 at 01:01 PM.
Predictably, just before the #NATO Summit, #Putin orders snap drills to check mobilization readiness.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...f93_story.html …
They carry out daily attack after attack, destroy critical infrastructure, torture and kill POWs, shoot down an OSCE UAV with SAM10s, shoot at OSCE SMM patrols, steal entire factories and coal from eastern Ukraine and fail to implement a single point in Minsk 2.............
BUT then want this Minsk 2 point implemented........
Kremlin-backed militants demand amnesty, put hostage without arms or eyesight on trial
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/06/1...ight-on-trial/ …
Seriously doubt that will ever happen until Russia fulfills six of the critical points of Minsk 2 starting with a full and complete exchange of POWs... turning over control of the Ukrainian border to Ukraine and withdrawing her troops and mercenaries as required by Minsk 2...then just maybe amnesty will be granted........
Reference the Russian shoot down of MH17...appears a Reuters reporter is in need of some serious answers.........
.@Reuters correspondent Zverev declined to comment on hackers' disclosures he withheld info on Russian BUK presence/use during MH17 shooting
He should have realized the moment hackers revealed his name he was in trouble......
Emails indicated he knew the Russian BUK unit inovled and when they were withdrawn back into Russia from eastern Ukraine...now he is silent as a cricket....
Data from hacked Rus 1st channel show new info on Russian Buk #MH17
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/14-june...-show-new-info …
via @newsburko
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-14-2016 at 05:30 PM.
Russian artillery and ground attack war on again tonight as always.....
20:48 #Toretsk @blessmaster battle goes on, becoming louder
20:34 #Toretsk @gg_artem listening to very dense battle in the E/SE. Shots, landings by everything I can recognize - heavy MG, AGL, SA, BMP
20:34 #Novhorodske @subwayriwer Hits started to reach the village. It is intensifying
20:33 #Avdiivka @Cryion1 #Promka&forest further N,not too intense MG, smtms like a tank at point-blank range,round-explosion almost at once
20:48 #Avdiivka @Cryion1 Though the sound is too faint as for tank, probably 80mm BMP cannon or like that
20:38 #Marinka @666_mancer [vk] it begins, booms and skirmishes, so far not intense
20:28 #Horlivka @NovaGorlivka Battle in #Shyroka_Balka - explosions, tracers, smoke
20:18 #Toretsk @blessmaster Something new. Firing is merging in plangent hum, like they drag a heavy box
20:15 #Horlivka #Stroitel @ahab9889 Machine gun fire is heard coming fr/#Shyroka_Balka direction
OSCEmonitors recorded hits at Avdiivka coke-coal plant
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/14-june...iivka-cokecoal …
pic.twitter.com/z2pc5vQQy8
20:06 #Toretsk @serg4er Continue listening to the war, so far not too close
20:04 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza evening is becoming cheerful [=battle begins?]
20:00 #Telmanove @GirkinGirkin [vk?] one can hear war
19:44 #Horlivka @UA_Horlivka_ for about 30 min, one can hear booms coming fr/the area of #Vodobud - NE fr/us, before like plane's droning
19:37 #Horlivka @tgorlovka_news Now one can hear rounds/landings too, smwh in the N/NW
19:36 #Toretsk @blessmaster well, bit by bit it's getting noisy. So far not loud, but frequently kind of brattle reach here - far booms
19:28 #Novhorodske @untrikoy They started to pound somehow firmly...
18:15 #Novhorodske @untrikoy "Bitches pound"
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-14-2016 at 06:22 PM.
Russia's intelligence agencies, "steal assets from one another"
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...earch-on-trump …
Fighting increases after top Russian officials meet with the so-called DPR - Colonel Aleksandr
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/14-jun
21:49 #Stakhanov @yellowbtr Since around 21:00, sounds of active battle with use of artillery & heavy machine gun come from #Lomuvatka dir'n
22:04 #Avdiivka @LuftGanza artillery is working densely smwh, sound of 4 tubes battery, landings in the direction of #Pisky-#Krasnohorivka..
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-14-2016 at 07:21 PM.
2 KIAs and 1 WIA Ukr soldier reported from #Pavlopil (#Mariupol area)
https://inforesist.org/volonter-pod-...li-dva-boytsa/ …
EU Mythbusters
✔ @EUvsDisinfo Create anger in RU towards EU by raising expectations: pro-Kremlin tactics.
http://eepurl.com/b49Qc1
EU Mythbusters
✔ @EUvsDisinfo Worrying signs of increased pro-Kremlin disinformation on #Ukraine. Latest #DisinfoReview:
http://eepurl.com/b5JYK9
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-14-2016 at 07:51 PM.
Poroshenko instructed to prepare a plan for a general mobilization in the event of a full-scale invasion of Russia
https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/poroshen...465908019.html …
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