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Thread: Syria in 2016 (April-June)

  1. #2061
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    https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/...o-kill-itself/

    Is the Islamic State About to Kill Itself?

    By Kyle Orton (@KyleWOrton) on June 7, 2016

    The Associated Press reported on Sunday that after a senior Islamic State (IS) commander was struck down by the international coalition in March it set off a witch-hunt inside the organization that led to the killing of thirty-eight IS jihadists at the hands of their own leaders. By AP’s account, IS is now consumed with internal suspicion. The story has some problems, however.

    Speaking to “Syrian opposition activists, Kurdish militia commanders, several Iraqi intelligence officials and an informant for the Iraqi government who worked within IS ranks,” AP reports the 30 March drone strike, which killed an IS commander, Abu Hayjaa al-Tunsi, in northern Raqqa, was the trigger for the internal hunt for spies. It is not inconceivable that there are spies within IS—indeed, ever since Fadel al-Hiyali (Abu Muslim al-Turkmani, Haji Mutazz) and Junaid Hussain were killed in August 2015 it has seemed rather likely IS was penetrated by the Coalition.

    Abu Hayjaa was killed as he drove from Raqqa to Aleppo, presumably under Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s instructions, to take up the post of military emir of northern and eastern Aleppo—covering Azaz and IS’s strongholds of al-Bab and Manbij, which is now under attack by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the front group for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). When Tarkhan Batirashvili (Abu Umar al-Shishani), the photogenic Chechen whose centrality to IS had been much-exaggerated, was hit by a U.S. airstrike on 4 March, which killed him ten days later, he was travelling to Shadadi to bolster IS against the SDF in that area. Given that the SDF is the U.S.’s primary ally in the anti-IS war, this is suggestive.

    The other recent losses for IS: the caliph’s deputy Abd al-Rahman al-Qaduli (Abu Ali al-Anbari, Abu Alaa al-Afri), Abu Sarah al-Ansari, Shaker al-Fahdawi (Abu Waheeb), and the inexplicably-unmentioned Amr al-Absi (Abu al-Atheer) likewise suggest that there are traitors in the ranks.

    What it doesn’t suggest is what is claimed by SOHR’s director, Rami Abdurrahman, that “some IS fighters began feeding information to the coalition about targets and movements of the group’s officials because they needed money after the extremist group sharply reduced salaries in the wake of coalition and Russian airstrikes on IS-held oil facilities earlier this year.” It is unlikely that IS fighters have decided to supplement their income by helping kill some of their comrades; they have to know IS’s internal security apparatus would detect such a thing.

    Likewise it is dubious that “after [al-Fahdawi’s] killing, IS killed several dozen of its own members in Anbar, including some mid-level officials, on suspicion of informing on his location, and other members fled to Turkey, the two intelligence officials said. … Some of the suspects were shot dead in front of other IS fighters as a lesson, the Iraqi officials said.” The Iraqi government is by now notorious for spreading disinformation about IS, and this fits very much into that mould. A random massacre of its members is not how IS is going to respond to the real problem of infiltration.

    Both Abdurrahman and a Syrian opposition activist, Bebars al-Talawy, claim—more plausibly—that, after Abu Hayjaa was killed, IS sent Iraqi and Chechen security officials to investigate, which led within days to the arrest and killing of twenty-one IS members, including a senior North African commander, and the arrest and transfer of more fighters to Iraq, where seventeen of them were killed and thirty-two expelled from the organization. This seems much more like a targeted purge, and could well be related to counter-intelligence, actual or potential, or it could be a religio-political matter.

    According to AP, non-IS members were also caught up in this wave of killings, Abdul-Hadi Issa among them. Issa was taken into the main square in Tabqa on 8 May, accused of spying, stabbed in the heart, and then shot in the head while the knife was still in his body.

    Paranoia leading to internal cannibalization is exactly how a group like IS would die. A historical precedent would be Sabri al-Banna (Abu Nidal), who killed off his own organization in a frenzied panic about spies. AP quotes Sherfan Darwish as saying that this process has now begun within IS: “There is chaos [in IS-held areas]. Some members and commanders are trying to flee.” Darwish was the spokesman for Burkan al-Firat, which has now been folded into the SDF and is thus saying what would be expected of him. There is no evidence that IS is approaching collapse because of these internal suspicions, and certainly not because of the decapitation strikes.

    The speech by Taha Falaha (Abu Muhammad al-Adnani) on 21 May asked:

    Were you victorious when you killed Abu Musab [al-Zarqawi], Abu Hamza [al-Muhajir], Abu Umar [al-Baghdadi], or Usama [bin Ladin]? … No. … Or do you, O America, consider defeat to be the loss of a city or the loss of land? Were we defeated when we lost the cities in Iraq and were in the desert without any city or land? And would we be defeated and you be victorious if you were to take Mosul or Sirte or Raqqa or even take all the cities and we were to return to our initial condition? Certainly not!

    Falaha was correct. IS’s strategic depth is in the deserts, where it survived and plotted its revival after the Surge-and-Sahwa: from their bases out of reach of the government IS could wage the campaign of assassination against the Sahwa—the “war of the silencers“—and the shift in politics in Baghdad toward sectarian authoritarianism gave IS a cause it could use to return to the Sunni population centres and become, within five years of its defeat in 2008, stronger than ever. The occupation of Sunni cities by the PKK and IRGC-run Shi’a militias will give IS the ability to return sooner than that this time around, even if they can be dislodged.

  2. #2062
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    Jabhat al-Nusra religious official Abdul Razzaq al-Mahdi accuses #IS of protecting #Assad in Damascus.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrowBat View Post
    You're welcome.

    Would like to observe, that the point of the entire exercise was trying to find out, and then explaining how the Russians think - i.e. how are their top political and military leaders thinking in regards of their air force - and why they do things the way they do. Not to acuse anybody.

    Anyway, this resulted in a write-up of about 30,000 words, then in a 1.800 words 'resume', from which a 1.000-words article was distilled.

    So, sadly, few useful explanations are missing, as are all the references. In turn the latter is now used by an entire brigade of Russo-trolls to (literaly) bitch about it.

    Particularly interesting is that nobody serious is actually complaining about the message and content of that article as such (on the contrary, several representatives of various NGOs active in Syria concluded that there's nothing good they can expect coming their way in the next few days, weeks etc.). The 'pearl' of an exception was Sergey Chernyshov, who's complaining,

    Actually, the only one who didn't do any fact-checking is he, then Tiyas AB is half-way between Homs and Palmyra, but certainly nowhere near Aleppo.

    Plus, not only that earliest reports cited destruction of Ka-52s, and that it's 'Mi-24s' only since publication of STRATFOR's article: ever since that accident (it was no attack) there are no Russian Ka-52s to be seen anywhere around Syria.

    In another instance (Twitter) a well-known IRGC-troll (banned from several aviation forums after declaring himself a 'part of elite rulling over undereducated masses'), complained I've been paid by Qatari and Turkish think-tanks. ...until somebody from Turkey advised him there's not a single Turkish think-tank capable of running such studies... then the 'Messiah' deleted all of his related posts.

    After such experiences, can't but admit: sometimes I find it really scarry to see in what sort of 'world' are we living nowadays.
    CrowBat.....You should see sometimes the mass of Trojan attempted hacks my system intercepts daily and sometimes hourly and I work Tor heavily and why I do not tip toe into the Twitter world....or anything on social media outside of here. I have had two attempted breakins in the last few weeks which is concerning especially since most absolutely do not know my home address and I am not in the German Police Residence Register compliments of the German government---so it was not some crazy teenagers out for a lark and my neighbors defintely watch my residence since we have had many a beer together and the closest one is a senior German cop and they were all surprised by the attempts.....

    It is brutal "out there these days"....

    I recently read a Russian article that Russia now views social media as part and parcel of their "political war with the West" and that says alot.

    Really do value your input ......

    Right now we really have a massive multi fronted war ongoing with multiple players and it is getting hard to maintain the overview.....AND IMHO we are not to far from this thing exploding into a major Sunni Shia conflict as the players are positioning themselves nicely for one....and if one of the players makes the wrong move the West is in some serious trouble....even Putin as well has his internal jihadist weakpoint....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-07-2016 at 06:55 PM.

  4. #2064
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    Michael Weiss ‏@michaeldweiss

    Some of us warned about the Avigdor factor in Israeli politics a while back:
    http://www.the-american-interest.com...e-middle-east/

    Haaretz.com Verified account
    ‏@haaretzcom

    Putin: Will start talks to add Israel to Eurasian Economic Union's free trade agreement
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-07-2016 at 06:59 PM.

  5. #2065
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    Mocking Putin Got Me Sent to Twitter Gulag
    http://thebea.st/1tdIFH6

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    AND what are the massive statistics for their support to FSA that is heavily involved in fighting IS and Assad on multiple fronts NOT just one....?????

    Latest @CJTFOIR tally for #Manbij offensive vs #ISIL #ISIS: 108 fighting positions, 31 vehciles, 17 hvy wpns, 2 wpns caches destroyed

  7. #2067
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    My latest: Footage surfaces of Iranian IRGC fighter embedded with Iraqi forces near Fallujah
    http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...r-fallujah.php

  8. #2068
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    AleppoIsBurning At least 40 #Russia|n airstrikes hit Hayan, Hraytan & Anadan in the last several hours! They’re burning everything!

    Intense #Russia|n airstrikes with cluster, incendiary & standard bombs targeted Anadan in north rural #Aleppo after sunset today

    More footage of criminal #Russia|n airstrikes targeting Anadan in north rural #Aleppo w/ incendiary munitions today
    https://youtu.be/dKOujwgO-sc
    https://youtu.be/AluobzMpchQ

    The LCC documented 94 martyrs in #Syria today, including 12 children & 10 women
    38 martyrs in Aleppo
    34 in Deir Ezzour
    8 in Daraa
    6 in Idlib
    5 in Homs
    3 in Hasaka


    Aleppo: Despite endless airstrikes Syrian Rebels inflicts losses on Assad regime
    http://fb.me/1lA0A6h3x

    There you have it, documented evidence that Shia militias are torturing & even killing Sunnis fleeing Fallujah
    http://bit.ly/1RWbn3a

    “@ForeignPolicy: Hamas is ready for war with Israel. @dpatrikarakos reports.
    http://atfp.co/1t5U4Iv
    pic.twitter.com/VlAUWJDr1C”

    Helicopter drops "explosive barrels" on the Hanano suburb of Aleppo today
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Im4bU8siE_s

    First video of a barrel bomb shoved out the rear of a helicopter for a while, Russia claimed they stopped it
    https://twitter.com/JohnArterbury/st...56432990359552
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-07-2016 at 07:27 PM.

  9. #2069
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    Huge explosions heard & reports #Israel|i airstrikes targeted Assad/Hezbollah ammo warehouses near 19th Reg in Qutayfah, #Damascus, #Syria

    SDF has captured Mankubah on outskirts of Manbij after #ISIS withdrew, clashes now reported inside Manbij

    SDF control Almankubah bridge clashes reach the city from northern side

    Assad-forces in #Aleppo's Handarat moved again into IED ambush

    Syrian Reporter on ground Shadi Hulwe DENIES ANY REPORTS of #SAA advancing to #Infantry_School

    ISIS militants handed #Aleppo Infantry School to Regime forces, and withdrew toward Fafin & Tall Shair.

    It was a TOS-1 the rocket launcher destroyed by an ATGM a few days ago?
    http://en.censor.net.ua/video_news/3...tonation_video

    Russia warplanes raining Opposition-held cities in #Aleppo with deadly/banned phosphorus bombs.

    Fires rage in Anadan, a suburb of north Aleppo, following an incendiary bomb attack this evening

    Iran announces the deaths of 3 more IRGC members near #Aleppo.

    It's 10 days now that Turkish-backed rebels are not able to retake 2 tiny villages between #Azaz & #Marea from #ISIS

    And this while #ISIS lost 50 villages to #SDF and #Assad's allies 2 hours drive away.
    Something is rotten in the state of Syria.

  10. #2070
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    CrowBat...how in the heck did the CENTCOM and US SOF fall for this.....


    Pro-#Assad/#Iran Al Mayadeen TV embedded with #SDF at the #Manbij front ...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ap2L...ature=youtu.be

    US and friends insist, SDF push is led by Sunni Arabs.
    Pro-YPG tweeps claim, 90% YPG forces.
    Who fools us here??
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-08-2016 at 05:11 AM.

  11. #2071
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    Romantic pic?!
    Anadan, north of Aleppo.
    A mosque, a water tower and a Russian WP attack.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKOujwgO-sc

    Another perspective on the same attack on the Idlib province town.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqzEHv-3EHo

    MaaratAlNuman
    Girl killed, several ppl wounded in suspected #Russian cluster bomb attack.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YZqMyiatAA

    Reports saying #ISIS militants withdrew from Hudhud village toward Tall Yasti, due to #SDF advances.

    Hama: ISIS kill 7 Assad regime fighters in surprise attack
    http://bit.ly/1Ux1n23

    SDF now capture Mankouba from ISIS. Looks like ISIS hoping they will eventually stall or overstretch themselves

    Quneitra: Rebels destroy Assad regime bulldozer
    https://youtu.be/X4wf8XWMP7k

    Assad regime Brig General Ghassan Beshara killed by rebel TOW in Latakia. He was killed with a number of fighters

    Assad regime general Mader Jouriya killed by rebel TOW in Latakia

    Opposition "Furqan Brigades" announce to start new battle to control new areas in #Quneitra, South of Syria.

    HashdShaabi militias flags + pro-#Iran sectarian posters found in Qal'ajiyah, after #HashdShaabi militias withdrew.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-08-2016 at 05:20 AM.

  12. #2072
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    On the left is Abu Ilyas Shishani of Ajnad al-Kavkaz killed recently in #Latakia #Syria, right is Abu Bakr

    AND Iran is not pushing an sectarian agenda....in both Syria and Iraq....
    Iran has also dispatched Ayyub al-Rubaie (Abu Azrael) to #Fallujah, militia commander who burns and carves bodies.

    Iraqi FM: Qassem Suleimani (US-designated terrorist) is "advising" Baghdad's troops, world should be grateful.

  13. #2073
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    Main Areas Where Russian Air-forces attacking by deadly bombs in North of #Syria
    HD https://goo.gl/fJtXLr

    YPG/#Kobane-scenario" now for #FSA in #Azaz/northern #Aleppo pocket:
    nearly wiped out by #Daesh- then the resurrection

    Rebels finishing off #ISIS pockets around #Marea this morning, N. #Aleppo. Note DIY armour https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhSdMkCMb3Y

    Kafr Ghan under FSA control

    Yahmul,Jarez,Kafrah has been taken by FSA,after ISIS withdrew

    Seems #Daesh abandon entire Quweiq Plain in northern #Aleppo
    So far only #FSA fill the vacuum

    ISIS withdrew from Sawran,Talalin,Yani Yaban,Barisha,Ghazl,and unconfirmed reports that FSA reached Ihtimalat

    Breaking. Acc. to activists, Rebels are for the first time at the gate of major #ISIS town of Ihtimalat, N. #Aleppo.
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36....247257&z=13&m

    Daesh retreated from a dozen villages in northern #Aleppo so far
    Tactical withdrawal to reinforce #Raqqa & #Manbij front ?!

    Daesh drive vehicle bomb into regime-convoy on road to #Raqqa
    btw Khirbet Zeidan & Anbaj villages
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...06236&z=12&m=b
    Anti-Isis rebel group in Marea, Mu'tasim Brigade, received another shipment of US supplies:

    So ya ... looks like SDF/YPG withdrew from Sheikh Issa without a fight.
    Politics politics politics ...

  14. #2074
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    CrowBat....here is the move you indicated would happen...coming out of Turkey......

    Here we go.
    Rebels just retook 3 villages with minimal force.
    + hundreds of fresh rebel forces arriving fr. Turkey
    .

    Daesh retreated from 6 villages in northern #Aleppo since morning

    FSA reconnected Azaz and Mare towns after exelled #IS from Kaljinrin, Kafr Kalbin, Niyara, Qarah Kubri and few other positions north Aleppo

    FSA retook Qarah Kubri & Yani Yaban (Al-Judaydah) from #Daesh i northern #Aleppo

  15. #2075
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    CowBat..this hit seemed to have triggered that recent massive explosion that took out a major ammo dump and one HDQs....

    Seems rebels destroyed TOS-1 (+Regime-HQ) in #Aleppo some days ago

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkS7vNFoEpI

    Just after the explosion one saw a number of missiles cook off....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-08-2016 at 05:05 PM.

  16. #2076
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    Syrian rebels break Islamic State siege in northwest - monitor
    http://reut.rs/24yDmgD

    Airstrike hit makeshift hospital in city center of #Aleppo
    10 dead so far
    https://youtu.be/EtVYJvNFk_U

    Two thirds of ~3,000 Regime/Russian strikes on N. #Aleppo last 2 weeks focused on Haritan & Kafr Hamra

    Failed #Russia'n airstrikes hit #Assad-forces positions in Cement factory in southern #Aleppo
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=36...44368&z=16&m=b

    Putin drop Phosphorus bombs on #Syria's #Aleppo
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6Jc0QOOJ6w
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plKIlR7L7Lg

    Footage
    Terror beyond imagination.
    #Russia burns residential area in #Anadan with WP.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6Jc0QOOJ6w

    All Rebels in #Marea (besieged since 2 weeks by IS/SDF) merge under Moutasem leadership. 2nd US ammo airdrop last night
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-08-2016 at 05:20 PM.

  17. #2077
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    Daesh drive vehicle bomb into regime-convoy on road to #Raqqa
    btw Khirbet Zeidan & Anbaj villages
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...06236&z=12&m=b

    Footage
    Happy rebels after pushing #ISIS out of #Jibrin.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3p2V6yn-t9w

    East #Aleppo - #SDF #Manbij offensive situation map (8 June 2016) / HD map :
    http://www.agathocledesyracuse.com/archives/790

    First reports: #FSA re-entered #Dudiyan.
    All towns north west of #Dabiq expected to be under #FSA control by tomorrow (if it's no trap!!!).

    Footage
    #Huraytan shortly ago.
    Heavy air strikes on the almost-emptied town.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UDr6kwdQ1k

    Current #FSA / rebels area north of #Aleppo after #ISIS withdrew thousands of fighters.
    Expect it to grow.

    Footage
    Cluster ammunition used by #Assad/#Russia in #Hayyan, some km N-W of #Aleppo.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NIr65f3dds

    Footage
    Cluster ammunition used by #Assad/#Russia in #Hayyan, some km N-W of #Aleppo.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NIr65f3dds

    The White Helmets
    ‏@SyriaCivilDef
    2 unguided bombs (suspected barrel bombs) in Al Shaar area. 15 killed & a hospital destroyed

    Footage
    Horror in #Aleppo city after several #Assad regime barrel bomb attacks.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFTIJYzp_nI

    Footage
    (Empty) school in #Huraytan hit by air strikes.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QD4xQNF43_0

    Big things to happen as #ISIS collapses.
    Report of 7 FSA factions uniting under "Pentagon project" Mutassim Brigade.

    Breaking
    Massacre in #Aleppo's Sha'ar neighbourhood as #Assad choppers drop barrel bombs.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPKswj02HOQ

    BREAKING
    #ISIS withdraws from more than 10 villages and towns around #Sawran!!
    All fighters on the way to #AlBab, #Manbij and #Tabqah.

    Footage
    Happy children in village, liberated by #SDF from #ISIS.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8U2KJmL9aQ

    The luxury when you have US special forces on your side: Just look at something long enough.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahq-X_KqeRA

    Burning #inferno after #Aleppo suburb hit by #Russian WP attack.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2A6NDvwP4TY
    (ignore the logo)
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-08-2016 at 05:16 PM.

  18. #2078
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    NO WORD by #EU / #US governments on #Russia's ongoing WP terrorism around #Aleppo.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6Jc0QOOJ6w

    Footage
    More #Russian White Phosphorus attacks on rural #Aleppo towns.
    Every few hours now!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIYvt68m00E

  19. #2079
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    Map. Today's update of the situation in #Manbij as #YPG/#SDF continue their offensive.
    HD - http://www.mediafire.com/convkey/831...24dg4617zg.jpg

  20. #2080
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    CrowBat....did you catch this.....??

    Russian nuclear plane flies over rebel-held Idlib in Syria miles from Turkey
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-n...arebar_twitter

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