Strategy in the 21st Century

[Bill Moore]

My initial thoughts on implications related to Kagan's book are a combination of revisionist history, the prevailing dumbing down of the West due the toxic impact of social media, and the deliberate actions of Russia and others to undermine our institutions and values has blinded a significant portion of the West's population to the dangers that lurk around the corner if we fail to maintain a leadership role in shaping the international order and frankly imposing norms that facilitate security and prosperity. I'm not arguing that our history should not be critical of our past, frankly we have an ugly past when he compare our actions to the ideas we promote. History and the media should hold us accountable; however, there is a larger context that gets lost in our excessive self-criticism. It would be a hell of lot of worse of Putin, Xi, Castro, Maduro, or some Iranian Supreme leader was guiding the international order.

U.S. power is not declining so much as other powers are increasing their power relative to the U.S., so our ability to impose and shape the order is increasingly limited, UNLESS our allies and partners stand with us to protect and advance common interests. Admittedly, the strategic error of invading and occupying Iraq has cost us considerable credibility and influence. While we must learn from that event, it is not an excuse for us to retreat from the world, or our allies and partners not stand with us against significant and growing threats to the international order that benefit our interests. Communicating the risk of failure to do so is imperative.

Another complication is the administration's America First national strategy theme. Every nation looks after its interests first, but the way this is communicated calls into question our will to police and enforce the order. If we don't, no one else will, but other powers will establish regional hegemonic influence and impose their own order increasing the risk of conflict and economic disruption. If you get past the rhetoric, it is clear the U.S. is still leading, but we need our words to align with our actions.