Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
I wrote the below in response to a SWC member's question, what did I think today? Today I have read several good commentaries and may in time answer some of the points made here.

Greetings from a slightly bewildered UK, everyone expresses surprise at the referendum result. A friend in the Labour Party was at the count in Birmingham, they were all astounded and realise lots of re-thinking is needed.

I did not stay up through the night, but watched one hour of reporting at 0730hrs and watched David Cameron's statement.

What is really odd is that last night, after the polls had closed, Nigel Farage (UKIP) stated Remain had won by 4%. I did not watch the polls during the campaign.

I have for weeks thought that the Remain campaign could backfire. One, the electorate could use the referendum to bash all the politicians and the interventions of outsiders, big business and others was counter-productive. Then the Remain campaign stupidly relied on a mix of dire threats, notably economic forecasts and simply "trust us".

It was clear two weeks ago that the Labour Party, who had IMHO conducted a lacklustre campaign, were finding their supporters on the doorstep strongly opposed to Remain. Yes, immigration was one issue and more so in areas where there was little diversity or where recent immigration was concentrated.

Personally I wanted to Exit, even if those campaigning did not appeal to me. I have regretted for many years voting Yes in the 1975 Referendum, on remaining a member of the EEC.

Put simply I did not want to be part of a European super-state, which is the EU's over-riding objective. The EEC morphed into the EU and simply marched on-wards minus any democratic mandate, let alone accountability to the people. Nor has the EU been that successful, including in the security field - where it should not have ventured - and NATO is more than adequate, with faults.

My reasons are political, not economic, but it is quite clear the Euro has been destroying the economies of several Southern / Mediterranean members. There remains the prospect of one or more defaulting on loans, on a scale far greater than Greece.

Yes there will be a long-term price to pay. One that is not very clear; will the EU "play ball" or be hostile?

Domestically I am not convinced Scotland really wants to exit the UK. That could alter if the negotiations with the EU are painful. Northern Ireland is in far weaker position, in part due its precarious economy and the strength of the Unionist vote.

Who will be the next Conservative leader? I have no idea. A lot will depend on who the MPs think can win the next General Election, which now could be sooner rather than the scheduled 2020.

Finally I do rather like David Betz's (Kings War Studies) recent WoTR column and this passage in particular:Link: http://warontherocks.com/2016/06/why...it-i-cant-say/

Best wishes and thanks for reading.
David.....as someone who has watched the EEC, then the EC and then the EU everyone knew that the easy part is trade and a central currency and how has watched UK vote to join in and now out...there is one underlining point that is well forgotten by all those countries that have joined the original five then six.

It is all about the money....and that I mean is mainly the only reason older many members and the latest new members ever had when joining.

The EU Rural development fund has been basically used by a turnstile revolving credit card to draw in BILLIONs in rural aid funds which have either been wisely or unwisely used by the member states.

BTW UK is no different......look at the total shock about now funding being cut off....the UK was the largest single member drawing massive amounts of EU research/education funding.....that will go away as well now.......and BTW the pay masters always being Germany followed by France and the Dutch.

If one really looks a the collapse and resulting financial problems of Ireland, Spain, Portugal, some degree Italy and especially Greece.....that credit card mentality drove a massive real estate bubble that burst in 2008 leaving billions in bad debts to be paid at some time in the future by the Germans, French and Dutch via the ECB...and notice the real estate bubble was and still is in the UK and it has now burst with a 12% sudden fall in house prices yesterday with the fall of the Pound.

The second reason to join was the sheer volume of internal EU trading that was and has been building over the years.....UK now has to fight to get into that again but this time with tariffs on their products and the standardization of safety and food standards that has benefits all members.

Let's look at the UK argument not to join the Euro...after the massive fall yesterday it take 1.22 UK pounds to purchase a Euro...and with further falling the sovereign credit rating being lowered to negative and S&P dropping the credit rating to AA the Pound will be cheaper than the Euro.

Immigration....was a smokescreen and racist in the end....when I came to work with Cisco in 1995 in the UK I had to wait 3 months and Cisco paid a massive legal fee to get the permit......now if UK needed specialists and experts they flowed across the border from other EU countries and the UK Customs guy would always sheer at me when clearing through Customs and question always about my work and where I was the same when clearing through Calais.

As UK is aging as it Germany is ...you and Germany need immigrants simple as that or did you all think the current "British/German population" was going to reproduce faster than the aging...never happen.

A recent study done here in Berlin indicated that if they are successful in integrating those that came......payments into social security and retire funds will actually increase not decease and in the tax earning over the long run balances out the current initial costs of the 1.2M refugees.

In the US we have seen something similar...all the illegal Mexicans Trump complains about and all those other illegals...well every year the US Social Security gets roughly 12B USD paid into them without questions asked by them since the illegals always used false SSA numbers to get jobs...and in the end they cheat themselves out of small pension for this but it pays US SS pensioners and the US SSA does not complain in the least.

So when the EU steps up and states member states must do this and that they scream and say...but.....we do not want controls from Brussels ALL still holding out their hands for the massive flowing development funds...

Are there problems, yes there are but nothing that a growing multinational nation state has not seen before and they are easy in the end to fix.....but with a growing populist movement that is getting harder since many are in the EU Parliament....and they do not want the problems fixed because then they have nothing to complain about.

But for the UK it is sad because you have robbed an entire young generation ie those from 14-18 who saw the EU as their future--for jobs, travel, education etc.....that disappointment will never be overcome by any future UK government.

And the break up will be hard and the UK will pay for being the first one as the EU founders want to show the others that talk about leaving just how hard it will be on them.

Today here in Germany....the German FM stated "we will not allow anyone".....anyone meaning the UK tak Europe away from us....

So in the end for a coming decade of recession and slow growth if at all....for losing a truly massive amount of "free funding" for the coming decades.....for losing massive amounts of funding for research/education. losing the freedom of movement for both healthcare, jobs and travel......over 40 years of poor UK political central governance.....

Was it in the end really worth it.....sadly not....