UK Declares Independence From The EU!

[Azor]

Then....if that were the case then why did they yell immediately for funding relief knowing the UK budget can never pick up 60-70B Pounds per year as the same demands will coming in from other areas as well.

The subsidy is GBP 60 million not billion, and again this works out to roughly GBP 112 annually per person. As I mentioned in my previous comment, there will be winners and losers from Brexit, but I believe that the overall long-term impact can be beneficial.

Secondly, you have not factored in the massive loss to both the FTSE 100 and 250 and the 250 is still falling today and those are mainly Brit companies and the 12-13% loss in the Pound...The amounts clawed back from the EU will go largely to cover these and the coming financial loses....and will not be available to cover the economy. With the lowering of the sovereign rating by Moodys...that added an additional 4B Pounds to debt service per year as well and the lowering by S&P to negative will hinder greatly any investment made by outside companies...and it will make it hard for the UK to raise funds going forward...

The financial markets loathe uncertainty and short-term losses in both the LSE and GBP were to be expected. The equity and foreign exchange losses are not permanent, nor do they indicate that the BoE or Treasury will have to intervene with a bailout.

What Moody's did was lower the outlook on the UK's debt, but affirmed its rating of AA1. Note that Moody's lowered the UK's debt rating to AA1 from AAA in 2013, when the UK's membership in the EU was not in question, which was the case in 2015. Moody's also lowered the ratings on US and France as well in 2013.

The GBP $4 billion that you refer to is clearly speculative in nature, and I would caution that UK debt is denominated in GBP, which as you noted has fallen precipitously against the USD and EUR since the referendum outcome. Therefore, the debt would be lower in real terms.

There will be an impact on the City of London's financial sector, although the size and scope remains to be seen. Certainly, the EBA and FSA had already been locking horns, and there has been a sense that the sector has profited by EU interactions at the expense of the rest of the British economy.

Scotland's First Minister has made noises about another secession referendum, although the Scottish Parliament has no authority to conduct one without assent from Westminster.

Having said that let's look at the national breakdown:

• England comprises roughly 83.50% of the UK's population, but provides 86.50% of its GDP and tax revenues. In return, England receives 3% less in government spending per capita than the UK average
  
• Scotland comprises 8.20% of the UK's population and GDP, 8.00% of its tax revenues and receives 15.50% more government spending per capita than the UK average
  
• Northern Ireland comprises 2.90% of the UK's population and 2.50% of its GDP, but provides only 2.10% of its tax revenues. In return, Northern Ireland receives 23.75% more in government spending per capita

Overall, assuming that there can be an equitable way to share the North Sea oil and gas, and assuming that Scotland and England can come to an amicable security arrangement, a Scottish secession would benefit England. Comparatively speaking, England is the driving force of the British economy and is more productive by any measure than the other constituent nations.