UK Declares Independence From The EU!

[Firn]

An interesting facet of Brexit is that it is a lot easier to roughly determine it's overall long-term economic effect - a clear negative for it's potential GDP. In the short run a heavily devalued pound might weigh more then counteracting negatives. The again quite a few things in life are subject to the supposed paradox, among them life's end as in the long run we are all dead.


As with many recent stories it makes always fun to explore them, trying to make sense of it, predicting effects. Brexit is one of those big life experiments which will be keenly watched and result in a lot of studies and papers.

[davidbfpo]

So far the reaction of the two main parties has been almost bewildering, hardly what is needed today - either as the loyal opposition or the government.

In many respects after a hiatus following the Referendum it has been "business as usual" as the "knives come out", notably Boris Johnson's unexpected exit from running as a Conservative Party leader and the mass departure of Jeremy Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet.

Yes there is dismay about the result, although to date there have been two small evening protests outside Parliament and today 30k marched in London.

The on-line petition calling for a new referendum, with new rules:

We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum.

Link:https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

Media-wise it appears to have slid from the foreground, partly as so many bogus signatures were added - including 26k from North Korea. Just checked and it shows 4,098,243 signatures.

I have yet to hear any political leader calling for a second referendum, but with som much reporting I could have missed that.

[davidbfpo]

Three interesting comments:

1) Cited in part:

the love affair between Cameron and Xi appears to be on the rocks following Britain’s decision to leave the EU and the Prime Minister's resignation

Which also wonders if George Osborne's demise is significant, which IMHO some inside "The Beltway" will be very happy about. Link:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...-of-its-lustre

2) From a left wing academic viewpoint an explanation why. It ends with:

One could even argue that, being in the EU but outside of the Eurozone, Britain has had the best deal of any member state during the 21st century. This has been abandoned. Meanwhile, nations that might genuinely describe themselves as ‘shackled’, have suffered such serious threats to their democracy as to have unelected Prime Ministers imposed upon them by the Troika, and have had their future forcibly removed thanks to the European Union, might look at Brexit and wonder.

Link:http://www.perc.org.uk/project_posts...ogy-of-brexit/

3) Explains why Sheffield helps to understand the vote in a Labour "heartland":

Fortunately, there’s one part of the country which can help us to make sense of the bigger picture: the city of Sheffield. Sheffield’s referendum vote was similar to the national one in a couple of ways.

Link:https://theconversation.com/sheffield-what-happened-in-this-city-explains-why-britain-voted-for-brexit-61623?

[OUTLAW 09]

3 Russian Scenarios of Collapse of European Union, Best for Moscow
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com...ind-of-eu.html …

[OUTLAW 09]

UK major political parties still do not get the EU and Article 50.....UK must trigger Article 50 before any negotiations can even take place and the UK plan they will resent will only be able to contain how they envision detangling 40 years of laws, court and trade regulations and on how they plan to exit "their passport for financial services.".....AND the date they will formally exit....

Once they formally exit then and only then will the UK be able to focus on trade deals and other items such as free movement of EU citizens inside UK and those Brits living in EU.....

What is it about UK political parties that have been in the EU for 40 years and yet still do not apparently understand how it functions...

"Progressive parties must aim to make any Article 50 deal part of a 2nd referendum or general election.."
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...P=share_btn_tw …

[OUTLAW 09]

'Reverse Greenland', anyone? Scots eye post-Brexit EU options
http://reut.rs/29eGvSS

John Micklethwait writes that Britain's liberal, trading revival that began in 1979 may have now crumbled in 2016.
http://bloom.bg/29epQ1v

UK was known by EU member states to be a constant blocking force when EU wanted to make changes...this might in fact have been largely true....

Gove promising to curb exec pay - plans vague, but strangely similar to what EU tried 2012-2014 (against uk opposition)

[OUTLAW 09]

Well worth reading......UK would do well to listen to Merkel as she is about their only friend right now in the EU............she is one of a few top EU leaders that believes the UK will not trigger Article 50 when it becomes extremely clear what the true costs are NOT the so called lies spread by all Leave groups....

Sunday Times Foreign @STForeign
Merkel to London... Is anybody there?
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/04...0-bcc24f53f55e …

Henry Kissinger is said once to have asked despairingly whom he should call if he wanted to speak to Europe. Now it is the Continent’s own politicians who are complaining that the line to Britain has gone dead in the meltdown since the referendum.

“The Brits must now come forward and say what they want,” Jens Spahn, deputy to Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, told The Sunday Times last week. “We cannot start contemplating any new relationships before the old has ended. The sequence of things is clear: the first step is negotiating the exit, and this will take years;…

WHAT is interesting is that the vote to leave was basically an "advisory vote" to Parliament as a Constitutional change vote would have required 2/3rds to vote for it and this is in fact a Constitutional change when 40 years worth of merged EU/UK laws and regulations must be changed back to UK standards.....

So in fact Parliament can still say on it's own...not to leave.....as they can state yes we respect the vote but it was not a vote for Constitutional changes....

THAT is why UKIP and some of the Leave leaders/groups such as BoJo wanted an immediate Article 50 triggered...then there is no going back as they are afraid the public will eventually realize this was only an advisory vote....not a binding Constitutional change vote.....

Actually confirms this........

May on @peston: "no absolute deadline" on Article 50.

Gosh.

AND the pain is starting to sink in..finally....one might say and a tad to late....

Britain's upstart banks face a bumpy ride through Brexit fall-out
http://reut.rs/29qjxoI