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Thread: UK Declares Independence From The EU!

  1. #181
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    London property deals worth $650m collapse after #Brexit.
    http://on.ft.com/299JBVG

    So complete coincidence then that there's been a massive rise in racist attacks & abuse in the wake of Leave's win?

    In the Tory laundry basket, Michael Gove is the dirtiest item | Marina Hyde
    http://gu.com/p/4ndqm/stw

    New Statesman ‏@NewStatesman · 4h4 hours ago

    Boris Johnson peddled absurd EU myths – and our disgraceful press followed his lead, writes @mfletchertimes http://www.newstatesman.com/politics...s-followed-his
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-01-2016 at 05:40 PM.

  2. #182
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    May: "rights of EU migrants to remain in the UK will be in play in the talks," i.e. Europeans could be thrown out

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...adsom-gove-may

    Axis of Tory leadership contest has tilted harder to leave

    In her statement, May set down some difficult markers for Brussels. She made clear that the UK will not trigger article 50, which starts the negotiations with the EU, until the turn of the year, months after the leadership elections, a timeline that will displease the commission. Brussels wants the talks to start immediately a new leader is in place in September, and will not even allow informal talks to begin until article 50 is triggered. May argues that the government needs longer to work out its negotiating position. If the markets abhor a vacuum, tough.

    In a further effort to reassure the leavers, she promised there will be no backdoor route back into the EU, saying there will be no second referendum, something some Brussels diplomats and some in the Obama administration still crave. An early election was also dismissed, so it does not look as if she feels the need to seek further democratic legitimacy once a deal has been struck. “Brexit means Brexit,” she said.

    The only glimpse of flexibility was when she said there was clearly no mandate for a deal that involves accepting free movement of people as it had worked hitherto. That leaves her free to argue that an emergency brake on free movement might be a compromise that satisfies Brussels and gives the UK access to the single market.

    Finally, she explicitly identified some cards that she may have in a tough negotiating hand. She said the rights of EU migrants to remain in the UK will be in play in the talks, implying that without a deal, tens of thousands of Europeans could be thrown out of the UK.

    Gove, Fox and Leadsom will point to her lengthy pro-remain speech in the referendum campaign to show she is liable to relent on free movement to get access to a single market.

    For some Brexiters it was significant, too, that May has spoken of an initial deal, suggesting that an interim Norway deal may be required and that her priority was to to maintain the single market.

    In her single referendum campaign speech, May ridiculed the whole architecture of the Brexit negotiations.

    “The reality is that we do not know on what terms we would have access to the single market,” she said. “We do know that in the negotiations we would need to make concessions in order to access it, and those concessions could well be about accepting EU regulations over which we would have no say, making financial contributions just as we do now, accepting free movement rules. It is not clear why other EU member states would give Britain a better deal than they themselves enjoy.”

    She also foresaw the threats, now emerging from Paris, about the threat to the City of London from Brexit by losing its right to passport euro trade deals. “If we were not in the European Union, there would be little we could do to stop discriminatory policies being introduced, and London’s position as the world’s leading financial centre would be in danger. The banks may be unpopular, but this is no small risk: financial services account for more than 7% of our economic output, 13% of our exports, a trade surplus of almost £60bn – and more than 1 million British jobs.”

    She also seemed to understand how hard and perilous it would be to secure a bilateral trade deal with the EU. “We would have to replace 36 existing trade agreements we have with non-EU countries that cover 53 markets. The EU trade deals Britain has been driving – with the US, worth £10bn per year to the UK, with Japan, worth £5bn a year to the UK, with Canada, worth £1.3bn a year to the UK – would be in danger of collapse. And while we could certainly negotiate our own trade agreements, there would be no guarantee that they would be on terms as good as those we enjoy now.”
    She does not seem to believe that if she restricts EU citizens then the UK citizens will not have their rights protected as well.........

    AND there are far more Brits in the EU than EU citizens inside UK.....

    BUT WAIT.......she seems to have completely forgotten that the EU has a say in all of this.......

    Juncker toes Brussels line on Brexit: "No negotiation whatsoever before notification."
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-01-2016 at 06:28 PM.

  3. #183
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    Brussels ‏@ftbrussels

    Brexit — ‘We want to be Big Scotland’

    http://on.ft.com/296alCV

  4. #184
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    https://piie.com/research/united-kingdom

    Brexit Is a Disastrous Experiment in Deglobalization
    C. Fred Bergsten (PIIE)
    July 1, 2016

    Brexit is an experiment in deglobalization. As the pound tanks and British politics implode, investment will dry up and the entire United Kingdom will almost certainly plunge into recession. The country may well break apart as Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland desperately seek to avoid the experiment. The outcome should dramatically discourage other Europeans, the United States, and anyone else contemplating their own versions of deglobalization.

    The European Union (EU), albeit at the regional level, represents the most ambitious foray into globalization in human history. It has essentially eliminated national borders in economic terms, creating a truly single market and even a common currency for most of its 28 members (though not the United Kingdom). It interacts as a single unit with the rest of the world on trade and some other economic issues.

    Like all globalization, and technological advance and other dynamic economic change, the EU provides substantial overall benefits for each of the participating countries while imposing adjustment costs on a minority within each. For the United States, for example, the benefit-cost ratio of globalization has been found to be about 20:1. By withdrawing from the EU, if they actually go ahead with it, Britain will give up many of the gains it has been enjoying, mainly in terms of unfettered access to the world’s largest market, while recovering a few of the modestly offsetting losses that apparently motivated the “leave” vote. Its competitive position in Europe, and vis-à-vis Europe in the rest of the world, will fall sharply. As a result, investment in Britain by both domestic and especially foreign firms will also fall sharply.

    No country has ever succeeded economically without integrating into the world economy. Those that have rejected globalization have failed miserably: Compare North Korea with South Korea and the Soviet Union with China. The failure of the Middle East as a region can be largely traced to its deglobalization in a globalizing world.

    Britain will of course continue to participate actively in the world economy even after Brexit. At the margin, however, and whatever new trade agreements it may be able to negotiate, the country will be withdrawing from globalization and moving against the tide of history. Companies that vote with their investment capital, and entrepreneurs and skilled workers who vote with their feet, will go elsewhere. Scotland, Northern Ireland, and maybe even Wales will make every effort to escape these inevitable implications.

    Some observers believe that Brexit will encourage and maybe even promote the success of anti-globalization forces elsewhere, including the United States. The opposite outcome is far more likely as the impact of the British experiment becomes apparent. The economic toll will encompass recession, possibly steep in the short run, and eroding competitiveness and real incomes over time. In this unique case, political dissolution is probable too. It is highly unlikely that anyone else will want to emulate Britain’s revealed preference for self-immolation.
    RealTime Economic Issues Watch
    Brexit: Is the Financial System Ready?
    Sebastian Ring (PIIE)
    June 30, 2016

    “Some market and economic volatility can be expected as this process unfolds. But we are well prepared for this.” Those were the words of Mark Carney(link is external), governor of the Bank of England, following the UK referendum on EU membership last Friday. As PIIE President Adam Posen previously argued, those words were well chosen. There has been contingency planning at both the Bank of England and the UK Treasury. Stress tests reveal that UK commercial banks have relatively robust capital buffers against unexpected shocks.

    That Brexit was an unexpected shock is a puzzle. Everybody knew that the UK referendum was coming, and the polls had been close for a long time. The initial reaction in the financial markets was severe. Why, then, did the risk of a potential UK exit from the European Union not feature more prominently in recent financial stability reports published by the world’s leading central banks and other institutions charged with monitoring global finance for signs of vulnerability?

    From a selection of 11 major financial stability reports, six omit the risk of a Brexit completely, perhaps most notably the International Monetary Fund’s Global Financial Stability Report of April 2016. It is especially odd given that the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, the companion document, mentions the referendum in the executive summary. While neither report included Brexit in the baseline scenario, it is not clear what we are to make of the difference between the two assessments. Other financial stability reports that omit the risk of Brexit include the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report of December 2015, Bank of Italy’s Financial Stability Report of April 2016, and the 2015 Annual Report to Congress issued by the US Office of Financial Research in December 2015.

    When Brexit is mentioned, it is usually in a brief comment, bundled with uncertainty around the US presidential election, as in the European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review of May 2016. The Bank for International Settlements’ March 2016 report mentioned Brexit only in passing, saying that it had been partially priced into commodities but that “shifting expectations of monetary policy, the evolution of borrowing costs in major currencies, and further credit-fueled stimulus in China” were the underlying factors for financial turbulence in early 2016.

    Financial stability reports are a ubiquitous feature of the post-2008 landscape. Only seven out of the 11 institutions surveyed here even published financial stability reports before the 2008 financial crisis. The reports are a response to the increased demand for continuous monitoring of the banking, financial, and payment systems with an eye to preventing the next financial crisis. They provide a platform for policymakers to explain concerns about financial stability to a wider audience, and they allow institutions to account for financial risks facing trading partners and other countries.

    Table 1 below summarizes the view on Brexit risks in all the financial stability reports surveyed. Only the central banks of Sweden and Denmark considered Brexit as a risk worthy of mention in the executive summary.

    Once again, this limited sample does not suggest that the institutions surveyed have not done their contingency planning. It is just odd that Brexit isn’t mentioned in several of the most recent, major financial stability reports. And since those reports are framing documents that give the public insight into the collective thinking of policymakers, it begs the question whether Brexit simply was not on the stability guardians’ minds. Maybe, like many other economists trained in rational decision making, they simply thought voters would come around and vote to remain in the European Union—or that the shock of a Brexit would be small or easily contained.

    Whatever their reasoning, the result was an unexpected shock to the financial system, which will have consequences that we cannot yet predict. In such a situation, it is comforting to learn that the Bank of England is well prepared. Meanwhile, it is time to prepare for the next shock. Not all risks come with a three-year-long announcement.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-01-2016 at 06:52 PM.

  5. #185
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    Default Brexit: demonising VS analysis

    When attempting to dull and overpower the senses, demonisers typically avoid hard issues and instead buttress their interests by using contrived targets and emotive language. But demonising is a poor substitute for analysis. That was clearly demonstrated by two recent items on the ASPI site.

    For clever demonising see
    http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/rise-democracy-europe/
    For rational analysis see
    http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/den...rexit-divorce/

  6. #186
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    Quote Originally Posted by Compost View Post
    When attempting to dull and overpower the senses, demonisers typically avoid hard issues and instead buttress their interests by using contrived targets and emotive language. But demonising is a poor substitute for analysis. That was clearly demonstrated by two recent items on the ASPI site.

    For clever demonising see
    http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/rise-democracy-europe/
    For rational analysis see
    http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/den...rexit-divorce/
    48% agree there should be another General Election to vote on EU plans (only 23% disagree).


  7. #187
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    Everyone for themselves...."little Europe"....

    Our current cover story: Everyone for themselves – Little Europe: The return of the past
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1100852.html

    This is @Freedland on blistering form. On just how despicable Boris is and what a disaster #Brexit will be.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...in-over-brexit

    The hints at Michael Gove's coming knifing of the Etonians can be found in this 2014 @FT profile.
    http://app.ft.com/cms/s/90d3f85a-3f7...71e8140b0.html

    How to Crash #Putin's #Brexit Party
    https://lnkd.in/eZr-Y2c
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-02-2016 at 10:04 AM.

  8. #188
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    For all Ukraine's dysfunction, its civil society and elite have a better understanding of what EU negotiations entail than UK Tories do

    AND they are in the middle of a Russian war of aggression and has lost Crimea.....

  9. #189
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    British politics now has a big dose of Syriza-thinking towards negotiations - "respect our democratic mandate". That's not how it works

    Greece is a study in how EU states will hazard their own economic interest & beggar a nation to face down 'populism' https://twitter.com/duncanweldon/sta...73193055825921

    After #Brexit, NI would face an annual loss of c. €1 billion and a 3% decline in GDP, according to NI Assembly Enterprise Committee report.

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    Interesting note by @drjennings on the decline of "representative parliamentary democracy."
    https://sotonpolitics.org/2016/07/01...ary-democracy/

    THIS goes to my comments that the UK PM and Parliament parties has basically for 40 odds years ignored......"the rule of law, good governance and transparency"......

    WHILE claiming to be "a unique and the oldest democracy"...the question is THEN why not go back to "the so called ballot box" and ask the civil society what they want for leadership ...but simply changing out the "so called leaders" until 2020 is not democracy.....it is a "political coup" via so called "democracy"......driven by egos.....not the rule of law and good governance and in full transparency...not lies, lies and more lies used to misled a large segment of the UK civil society...

    What sort of arrogance dictates Irish & Danes can have 2nd referendums on EU but we British cannot. Irish & Danes knew they made a mistake.
    We Brits cannot figure out if we have actually made a mistake or not......as our house burns down around us.....

    Gove: "I could not be Prime Minister, I'm not equipped to be Prime Minister, I don't want to be Prime Minister."

    BUT WAIT...being PM gets a house, servants, airplane, chef and other benefits and an increase in salary......NOW I want to be PM.....

    AND best of all...with no election to worry about...SOLID job security until at least 2020...
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-02-2016 at 10:58 AM.

  11. #191
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    This is the best explainer yet of why arguing "they'll back down - it's in their interests" is likely to be wrong https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...lf-immigration

    Imagining that Britain’s European partners will produce concessions to facilitate a U-turn is wishful thinking – the EU is too weak and too rattled by populist forces to be able to make that kind of manoeuvre without setting itself on a course to self-destruction. The EU will prefer to ensure its own survival as a project rather than risk suicide by handing Britain unprecedented exemptions from its founding principles, such as freedom of movement
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-02-2016 at 11:11 AM.

  12. #192
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    Extraordinary: paper that campaigned for Brexit says its leading spokesman is a bufoon and a bluff. And dangerous.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-HASTINGS.html

    SO exactly just where was this so called UK MSM outlet when Leave supporters were lying and lying and this MSM outlet never seemed to "see" it.....

  13. #193
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    Maybe UK political leaders and their parties just need some small assistance in figuring out how good governance, the rule of law and transarency works in a democracy.....

    Navy SEALs explain how your ego can destroy everything http://read.bi/298HumE

  14. #194
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    An interesting facet of Brexit is that it is a lot easier to roughly determine it's overall long-term economic effect - a clear negative for it's potential GDP. In the short run a heavily devalued pound might weigh more then counteracting negatives. The again quite a few things in life are subject to the supposed paradox, among them life's end as in the long run we are all dead.


    As with many recent stories it makes always fun to explore them, trying to make sense of it, predicting effects. Brexit is one of those big life experiments which will be keenly watched and result in a lot of studies and papers.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  15. #195
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    Default A comment from someone "in country"

    So far the reaction of the two main parties has been almost bewildering, hardly what is needed today - either as the loyal opposition or the government.

    In many respects after a hiatus following the Referendum it has been "business as usual" as the "knives come out", notably Boris Johnson's unexpected exit from running as a Conservative Party leader and the mass departure of Jeremy Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet.

    Yes there is dismay about the result, although to date there have been two small evening protests outside Parliament and today 30k marched in London.

    The on-line petition calling for a new referendum, with new rules:
    We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum.
    Link:https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    Media-wise it appears to have slid from the foreground, partly as so many bogus signatures were added - including 26k from North Korea. Just checked and it shows 4,098,243 signatures.

    I have yet to hear any political leader calling for a second referendum, but with som much reporting I could have missed that.
    davidbfpo

  16. #196
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    Default Worth reading

    Three interesting comments:

    1) Cited in part:
    the love affair between Cameron and Xi appears to be on the rocks following Britain’s decision to leave the EU and the Prime Minister's resignation
    Which also wonders if George Osborne's demise is significant, which IMHO some inside "The Beltway" will be very happy about. Link:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...-of-its-lustre

    2) From a left wing academic viewpoint an explanation why. It ends with:
    One could even argue that, being in the EU but outside of the Eurozone, Britain has had the best deal of any member state during the 21st century. This has been abandoned. Meanwhile, nations that might genuinely describe themselves as ‘shackled’, have suffered such serious threats to their democracy as to have unelected Prime Ministers imposed upon them by the Troika, and have had their future forcibly removed thanks to the European Union, might look at Brexit and wonder.
    Link:http://www.perc.org.uk/project_posts...ogy-of-brexit/

    3) Explains why Sheffield helps to understand the vote in a Labour "heartland":
    Fortunately, there’s one part of the country which can help us to make sense of the bigger picture: the city of Sheffield. Sheffield’s referendum vote was similar to the national one in a couple of ways.
    Link:https://theconversation.com/sheffield-what-happened-in-this-city-explains-why-britain-voted-for-brexit-61623?
    davidbfpo

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    3 Russian Scenarios of Collapse of European Union, Best for Moscow
    http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com...ind-of-eu.html

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    UK major political parties still do not get the EU and Article 50.....UK must trigger Article 50 before any negotiations can even take place and the UK plan they will resent will only be able to contain how they envision detangling 40 years of laws, court and trade regulations and on how they plan to exit "their passport for financial services.".....AND the date they will formally exit....

    Once they formally exit then and only then will the UK be able to focus on trade deals and other items such as free movement of EU citizens inside UK and those Brits living in EU.....

    What is it about UK political parties that have been in the EU for 40 years and yet still do not apparently understand how it functions...

    "Progressive parties must aim to make any Article 50 deal part of a 2nd referendum or general election.."
    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...P=share_btn_tw

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    'Reverse Greenland', anyone? Scots eye post-Brexit EU options
    http://reut.rs/29eGvSS

    John Micklethwait writes that Britain's liberal, trading revival that began in 1979 may have now crumbled in 2016.
    http://bloom.bg/29epQ1v

    UK was known by EU member states to be a constant blocking force when EU wanted to make changes...this might in fact have been largely true....

    Gove promising to curb exec pay - plans vague, but strangely similar to what EU tried 2012-2014 (against uk opposition)
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-03-2016 at 10:17 AM.

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    Well worth reading......UK would do well to listen to Merkel as she is about their only friend right now in the EU............she is one of a few top EU leaders that believes the UK will not trigger Article 50 when it becomes extremely clear what the true costs are NOT the so called lies spread by all Leave groups....

    Sunday Times Foreign @STForeign
    Merkel to London... Is anybody there?

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/04...0-bcc24f53f55e


    Henry Kissinger is said once to have asked despairingly whom he should call if he wanted to speak to Europe. Now it is the Continent’s own politicians who are complaining that the line to Britain has gone dead in the meltdown since the referendum.

    “The Brits must now come forward and say what they want,” Jens Spahn, deputy to Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, told The Sunday Times last week. “We cannot start contemplating any new relationships before the old has ended. The sequence of things is clear: the first step is negotiating the exit, and this will take years;…
    WHAT is interesting is that the vote to leave was basically an "advisory vote" to Parliament as a Constitutional change vote would have required 2/3rds to vote for it and this is in fact a Constitutional change when 40 years worth of merged EU/UK laws and regulations must be changed back to UK standards.....

    So in fact Parliament can still say on it's own...not to leave.....as they can state yes we respect the vote but it was not a vote for Constitutional changes....

    THAT is why UKIP and some of the Leave leaders/groups such as BoJo wanted an immediate Article 50 triggered...then there is no going back as they are afraid the public will eventually realize this was only an advisory vote....not a binding Constitutional change vote.....

    Actually confirms this........

    May on @peston: "no absolute deadline" on Article 50.

    Gosh.


    AND the pain is starting to sink in..finally....one might say and a tad to late....

    Britain's upstart banks face a bumpy ride through Brexit fall-out
    http://reut.rs/29qjxoI
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-03-2016 at 10:29 AM.

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