Photograph shows Jeremy Corbyn's pro-#Kremlin spin chief held in #Putin's iron grip at #propaganda summit https://twitter.com/LaurinaviciusM/s...99937075138560 …Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Polish Ambassador to the UK calls on British politicians to condemn post-ref hate-motivated attacks on migrants https://twitter.com/witoldsobkow/sta...35479112433664 …
108 #migrant splashes from @daily_express since Romania and Bulgaria joined in Jan 2014
David...this is the EU financial exit we will start seeing and IMHO it has started faster than I thought it would.....so the Romania story was not first of all denied by HSBC and then this came across and it concerns "the City passporting abilities" that is critical if the City is to survive this.....
First step in pulling the City's "passport"................
EU plans moving bank regulator from London as euro zone eyes City business
http://reut.rs/28YhcV3
What I think many on the UK failed to recognize is that for the EU UK has been demanding and demanding since day one....on virtually every bit of legislature that the EU has ever passed....then did not join the Euro and did not accept Schengen and the free movement of labor and on and on.....
What Cameron did not recognize is that the EU had reached it's limits on the last round of reform even after giving him a solid deal that no other EU has gotten largely supported by France and Germany.....then UK walks out.
Cameron seems to have completely overlooked comments coming out of Germany and the EU Commission that they had plans in place for the event UK left.
That is what we see now happening.....the EU wants
1. this to move quickly so that the financial markets calm down
2. set an example of how hard it is to leave and with what financial costs in order to block 11 other leave EU movements
And if the tones out of Berlin are mixed there is one though that sticks out...we will allow no member to destroy the EU and if one wants to leave so be it but at a heavy cost.
Germany alone will have to pick up 4B Euros of the UK monthly costs alone so they are no "happy campers"....so well those in the UK think Merkels tones are moderate....they only "sound moderate" for the public...
In some ways it now appears that Greece is far more stable than UK....and what is surprising is now Greece has fully and completely seen that the EU can and will kick them out of the Euro and EU if they do not finally go on with their reform efforts....so UK exiting has applied pressure now on Greece to finally do their reform efforts they only talk about in order to continue getting a bail out.
The drama continues,
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-br...-idUSKCN0ZC103
To Brexit or Regrexit? A dis-United Kingdom ponders turmoil of EU divorce
After Britain's historic vote to leave the European Union, there is no indication that a so-called Brexit will happen soon. It maybe never will.
Brexit: Pros and Cons
To Outlaw:
I've read your economic rationale for Remain, but I find it piecemeal and often anecdotal. Overall, it seems that Brexit may not be the disaster that Remain predicted; even in Cornwall, supposedly dependent upon EU subsidies, the cost would be ~£115 per year, which can easily be replaced by the UK's savings on EU contributions.
- The UK has a chronic and worsening trade deficit with the EU. In 2015, 54% of UK imports were from the EU (a steady weighting since 2000), while UK exports to the EU fell to 47% in 2015 (from 60% in 2000).*
In 2011, the UK's national contribution to the EU was 73% more than the EU spent on the UK.*
In 2013, the UK's national contribution was 115% more...*
From an anecdotal perspective, despite baffling anti-Polish sentiment in some small English towns, the main Leave concern with immigrants appears to be focused on the Roma or Gypsies who have been flooding into London's common areas and sleeping rough in addition to committing minor crimes. Leave supporters are rightly concerned that if Merkel accepts the migrants (who are migrants and not refugees) as citizens, then many will flood across the Chunnel. As it is, the Calais "jungle" is indicative of the UK's attractiveness to migrants vis-a-vis almost all other EU members. Ultimately, there will be winners and losers due to Brexit, and perhaps imports will cost more, but the UK should look further afield for export markets.
Then....if that were the case then why did they yell immediately for funding relief knowing the UK budget can never pick up 60-70B Pounds per year as the same demands will coming in from other areas as well.
Secondly, you have not factored in the massive loss to both the FTSE 100 and 250 and the 250 is still falling today and those are mainly Brit companies and the 12-13% loss in the Pound...I've read your economic rationale for Remain, but I find it piecemeal and often anecdotal. Overall, it seems that Brexit may not be the disaster that Remain predicted; even in Cornwall, supposedly dependent upon EU subsidies, the cost would be ~£115 per year, which can easily be replaced by the UK's savings on EU contributions.
The amounts clawed back from the EU will go largely to cover these and the coming financial loses....and will not be available to cover the economy.
With the lowering of the sovereign rating by Moodys...that added an additional 4B Pounds to debt service per year as well and the lowering by S&P to negative will hinder greatly any investment made by outside companies...and it will make it hard for the UK to raise funds going forward...
A view from "boots on the ground"
A view from the ground in a West Midlands town, by an Exit door-to-door canvasser:In my home town all but two wards went Leave, one better off Conservative, as per national trend and one where the block vote/leaders did the usual for Labour. Also Pakistani Muslims were for Leave in numbers, as well hence Birmingham result. Not fond of Eastern Europeans.
Labour shell shocked at the count, hence the meltdown today. Will Boris
call their bluff if the legislation to repeal the Europe Act is blocked
in Parliament. 1/3 Labour voters considering going elsewhere. Worse in
C2, D and E groups. Could be a rump of 150 seats.
People shaking our hands, asking for more leaflets, thumbs up on the
estates. Thanking us for what we are doing. I hope we give them some
thing back and have not led them up the garden path.
My socialist friends have been calling for years for the working class
revolution. Now they don't like it all and the mask starts to slip
amongst the bien peasant champagne socialists who purport to care about
the working classes. Thick, uneducated, racist, ignorant little
Englanders, fat, ugly, etc etc. Thing is they are not underclass, they
work and register to vote.
Also a dangerous moment. I do not blame the Eastern Europeans for
wanting a better life, I blame the elite's and all political parties.
No economic harmonisation before free movement. If I see any abuse or
backlash I will call it in.
Polls wrong as turnout filters set to General Election levels for C2, D and E. Higher turnout than normal GE in these groups because of immigration been the key issue for them.
Agree with all you say. It is Sovereignty, unelected commissioners,
biased German manufacturing, biased French agriculture and economic
hardship to club med for me.
Boris will get on the ballot of MP's no doubt and he will just walk it
when he and May are put to the membership.
Merkel will play ball, we are to important to German industry.
Scotland can do what they want, people are tiring of hearing about them
all the time.
The short term pain is worth it in the long run.
davidbfpo
Azor...was I right or was I right....there are some traders that indicate that the Pound will actually drop below a USD and the Euro...so yes some in the UK will argument that is great as it makes exports cheaper but the UK is an importer thus EVERYTHING will get more expense...BY how much..
BREAKING Pound slumps to new 30-year low against dollar (I remember the days when I had to pay 2.45 USDs for a single Pound and 3 DMs for a Pound)
By the value lost.....thus right now over 15% and climbing.....if it goes under the two then roughly 34-40% more expensive.
So in effect the savings from the EU are being eaten up as each day goes by..until you reach a negative return on investment and that is about ten days away if this pace keeps up......
Basic.....
Economics 101....and those in power did not see this coming...then they all need to be fired and right now....
So will the Ukraine actually eventually be replacing UK.....seriously think so...
Merkel says "screw Brexit, Steinmeier and Putin" and receives Ukrainian PM @VGroysman with full military honors. https://twitter.com/D_Stoliarchuk/st...78650547363840 …
I heard it now a couple of times but don't think the 'Germany' cited all too often as a proxy for the whole EU will put economic self-interest before poltical necessitiy. Much of the same was said after the Russian invasion and Germany accepted the biggest losses of all big nations despite having arguably the most talked-about political relationship.
The political mood in the E(U) and many countries is quite bad for the (U)K. They bargained hard, extracted privileges, attacked the EU and after a divisive vote somehow expect the other sides to show cool 'pragmatism', which means mostly perserving UK self-interest while forgetting that some European self-interest is actually opposed to it. And now we have the saga of the article 50 and the political chaos in the (U)K.
It is somewhat amusing to hear so much about British democracy while there seems to be little regard for other people's democracy. In short Britain will also have to respect the terms under which the elected of other people might or might not give it access to their club.
All in all I hope that this mess will be handled smartly but there will be some pain, just as everybody with some sense said. For many, often perfectly understandable reasons to leave will trump the concerns and the pain. Others seem to have been unaware of the price they will have to pay.
I will maybe later write about the deeper economic implications, but it is important that some things should not be takes as given. Especially not the actions of many others.
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
Some thoughts on Brexit (or the thoughts behind it) http://brownpundits.blogspot.com/2016/06/brexit.html
Understanding Brexit’s Security Implications
A short article by Professor John Schindler, the sub-title being:Link:http://observer.com/2016/06/understa...-implications/Britain’s leaving is a big deal for the European Union, but not for Britain’s security—or America’s
davidbfpo
Nothing about John.....but the UK military has been on life support for about the last 15 or so years actually ever since 1991....the AF and Navy are barely a shadow of their formers selves and the Army is struggling as well for any long term deployments and when the financial crisis deepens what tax monies are they going to get to improve all the services.....
To hunt Russian subs the French had to loan search ships and French and NATO have picked up some of the air defense patrolling......
There are three developments that actually many Leave voters failed to actually realize..
1. this vote was actually an "advisory" vote to Parliament thus actually non binding as only Parliament can make the final decision....
2.in order to actually have directed Parliament to conceded to the vote there had to be a binding addendum to the vote that namely only a vote of 2/3rds was needed to make any constitutional changes.
And changing hundreds if not thousands of UK laws passed in 40 years in multiple areas to match EU requirements and now need to be changed back......THAT is in the definition of "constitutional changes" that can only be done by Parliament not the voting masses.
3. LASTLY over 19,000,000 UK citizens living abroad were denied the right to vote on a extremely important advisory vote that in the end directly affects most of them.....
That is UK democracy hard at work......
Now UKIP and the Eurospetic wings of both major political parties are using basically an advisory vote to drive through basically what some might call in other democratic countries.....a coup.....
Bojo alias Boris " the terrible" the leading Euroseptic Conservative who pushed hard during the campaign against "freedom of movement as a serious threat to the UK economy and jobs"......
BUT surprise, surprise, surprise during an interview he held today...stated we will continue to accept EU citizens rights as they will support the rights of UK citizens in the EU countries......
BUT WAIT...that sounds very much like "Schengen rights and the right for free movement as the EU norm".........
So now did he actually lie, lie and lie even more with this demands that the UK has the right to control their borders and who comes in......
This morning on Sky a major UKIP MP also stated that we will determine who enters and who works here........
WHEN asked well why do you then expect the EU to allow UK citizens to continue to travel freely in the EU if we control them coming in......
He never did answer the question......BUT kept going back and stating ..it is in their best interests......BUT when told that is not how the EU handles non EU citizens.....he was silent....and avoided the answer...
But he and Bojo do not seem to fully understand EU requirements for non EU members......
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-27-2016 at 03:36 PM.
Agreed, but I expect his focus is on intelligence and pre-conflict work. Plus having the 'Special Relationship' enables US access to some strategic places, often islands e.g. Diego Garcia and skill sets the USA may not have.
davidbfpo
Brexit is Good News for Russia, but a Headache for NATO
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/26/...ache-for-nato/ …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-27-2016 at 03:43 PM.
And the dogs of racism have been unleashed by this.....National Police Chiefs Council online police reporting of hate crimes from Thursday to Sunday are UP by 57%.....
Hate to honestly say this as I have lived and worked in the UK for a number of years and this totally breaks the mold........
BUT WHY so focused on Poles who fought and died in WW2 for the "Battle of Britain"....
David...fully and completely agree although I think this connection is already deep and present....
My concern is this.....
"France is not enthusiastic about being left exposed as Europe’s sole nuclear power"
https://next.ft.com/content/11bde1d6...#axzz4CmLircDw …
Especially after they stated reluctance to turn over the MDS to NATO control......as they figured the UK would be in the mix nuclear wise if something goes seriously astray.....
FTSE 100 down again today 2.55% drop of over 6% in two days
FTSE 250 down again today 6.4% drop from the Friday drop of over 8%
FTSE 250 is critical as it reflects the actual major 250 Brit companies....so down on the whole of over 15%
Predictions of continued drops in both FTSE's....
GBP to USD at an historical 31 year low at 1.32 and set to go lower as the "market" knows the economy will now go into recession and are betting it will go lower...some predict to as low as equal to the USD 1 to 1......
Literally BILLIONS wiped out today on both FTSE's and the GBP dropping and that will not effect investment and jobs.....over the next 5-10 years????
Market specialists are saying the GBP to USD is to level at 1.20 and that is major if not a disaster for the economy......
Bond Markets......the UK bonds fell to just under 1% so not even worth buying UK bonds......
AND now the words of a "global recession" is bein g painted by market experts....all triggered by the vote and declared "rubbish" by the Leave side.....
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 06-27-2016 at 04:23 PM.
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