UK Declares Independence From The EU!

[OUTLAW 09]

Brexit campaign wipes website clear, sparking speculation it is hiding its promises

Man...the UK politics cannot get any worse than this......how are they to talk to an angry EU when they cannot even et their major parties in line..as everyone is trying to get a new job......

On Sky News the new Labour Treasury spokesman sats she can handle the job because "I have always had an interest in economics"!

[OUTLAW 09]

My 73 yr old Mum (who voted Remain) tells me people in her lunch club thought LEAVE meant, quite literally, voting to make immigrants leave.

[OUTLAW 09]

I heard it now a couple of times but don't think the 'Germany' cited all too often as a proxy for the whole EU will put economic self-interest before poltical necessitiy. Much of the same was said after the Russian invasion and Germany accepted the biggest losses of all big nations despite having arguably the most talked-about political relationship.

The political mood in the E(U) and many countries is quite bad for the (U)K. They bargained hard, extracted privileges, attacked the EU and after a divisive vote somehow expect the other sides to show cool 'pragmatism', which means mostly perserving UK self-interest while forgetting that some European self-interest is actually opposed to it. And now we have the saga of the article 50 and the political chaos in the (U)K.

It is somewhat amusing to hear so much about British democracy while there seems to be little regard for other people's democracy. In short Britain will also have to respect the terms under which the elected of other people might or might not give it access to their club.

All in all I hope that this mess will be handled smartly but there will be some pain, just as everybody with some sense said. For many, often perfectly understandable reasons to leave will trump the concerns and the pain. Others seem to have been unaware of the price they will have to pay.

I will maybe later write about the deeper economic implications, but it is important that some things should not be takes as given. Especially not the actions of many others.

Firn...your comments about the UK constantly pushing the EU to change in order to ensure UK self interests when the other 27 would largely agree on something...compromise has never been a mark of UK EU politics....

Example...the EU fully understands exactly how the UK talks and deals...so when Cameron delayed the article 50...they knew it was coming so the statements...get on it with and do not delay and then Cameron today in Parliament...I am going to the EU to see what we can do to start "pre negotiations".....ALL designed to basically delay the article 50 trigger and try to get a better talks deal.

Merkel's response this evening from Berlin .....THERE will be NO pre negotiations...you are to come to us with your proposals and it is the 27 who will judge them and reduce if necessary as you the UK have no voice and basically are in the weaker "negotiations position because you are the one leaving".

Sad that politicians are playing with fire and apparently do not even see the fire.......

Also sad the Finance Minister even backs away from his own dire statements before the vote....now well not so bad.....as everything is crashing on the currency and trading markets.......how crazy is that????

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
"The Brexit lies are a gift for the far-right" Me in @spectator on the creation of an English stab-in-the-back myth http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06...right-britain/ …

BREAKING: S&P lowers United Kingdom sovereign credit rating to AA from AAA

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukrainian advice to the Brit Remain side..................


Brits who like to stay in the EU might wanna watch this and learn from the real experts.
https://youtu.be/DaUSz6QeLAk

[OUTLAW 09]

Bet BoJo and UKIP did not think this would ever happen after 40 years.......

English will not be an official EU language after Brexit: Senior MEP
http://fb.me/9lwOObNPx

Nick Clegg
✔ @nick_clegg We must elect a new government to decide country’s future. My article for today's @standardnews
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/co...-a3281686.html …

SO an interesting question ......was BoJo heading the Leave movement headed to a not so unseen "coup"......becoming PM without ever going through an election....????

You couldn’t make it up, you really couldn’t. Having told the nation repeatedly that with one bound we would be free to “take back control” of our own future, it turns out that the Brexiters haven’t the faintest clue about what the future holds. None. Zip. They have persuaded the nation to jump out of a plane without parachutes — and they have no idea how to avoid a crash landing.

FURTHER........

Worse still, what they did tell us about the future turns out to be false too: Nigel Farage now admits that the infamous claim that we would have £350 million a week to spend on the NHS should never have been made; Daniel Hannan asserts, with a straight face, that Leave never really claimed immigration should be significantly reduced; and Brexiters have assured the Northern Irish that there will be no checks at the new land border with the EU.

So there we have it: no money saved, no major cut in immigration, no control over our border with the EU.

Boy, would I feel double-crossed if I was one of the millions of people who voted for Brexit because I thought we would get all three. The wrath of betrayal which awaits Brexiters will make the anger directed at me over tuition fees look like a Sunday school picnic. Two big things immediately follow from this mountainous act of deception.

First, the victors must come before Parliament within the next week to tell us all what they want us to do next. Shrugging their shoulders and wittering about the need for time, as Boris Johnson has done, is intolerable. He, Michael Gove and Gisela Stuart — the leading Brexit MPs — have won. Now comes the responsibility of victory.

Continued.....

[OUTLAW 09]

David...this is the EU financial exit we will start seeing and IMHO it has started faster than I thought it would.....so the Romania story was not first of all denied by HSBC and then this came across and it concerns "the City passporting abilities" that is critical if the City is to survive this.....

First step in pulling the City's "passport"................

EU plans moving bank regulator from London as euro zone eyes City business
http://reut.rs/28YhcV3

What I think many on the UK failed to recognize is that for the EU UK has been demanding and demanding since day one....on virtually every bit of legislature that the EU has ever passed....then did not join the Euro and did not accept Schengen and the free movement of labor and on and on.....

What Cameron did not recognize is that the EU had reached it's limits on the last round of reform even after giving him a solid deal that no other EU has gotten largely supported by France and Germany.....then UK walks out.

Cameron seems to have completely overlooked comments coming out of Germany and the EU Commission that they had plans in place for the event UK left.

That is what we see now happening.....the EU wants
1. this to move quickly so that the financial markets calm down
2. set an example of how hard it is to leave and with what financial costs in order to block 11 other leave EU movements

And if the tones out of Berlin are mixed there is one though that sticks out...we will allow no member to destroy the EU and if one wants to leave so be it but at a heavy cost.

Germany alone will have to pick up 4B Euros of the UK monthly costs alone so they are no "happy campers"....so well those in the UK think Merkels tones are moderate....they only "sound moderate" for the public...

In some ways it now appears that Greece is far more stable than UK....and what is surprising is now Greece has fully and completely seen that the EU can and will kick them out of the Euro and EU if they do not finally go on with their reform efforts....so UK exiting has applied pressure now on Greece to finally do their reform efforts they only talk about in order to continue getting a bail out.

David......here it comes and as totally predicted.......

Thousands of London banking job cuts to start next week
http://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk...YqapcU.twitter …

Merkel ally: sure thing, UK, you can be in the single market, for a fee: the same one you pay today.
http://ln.is/www.bbc.co.uk/progra/VxGXV …

BUT with no voting voice on how your money is being spent.........

[OUTLAW 09]

Wonder how many in UK know this about their Labour leader......

Official Islamic agency IRNA praises #Labour #Jeremy Corbyn for "resisting pressure by warmongers" to resign. Corbyn is old ally of mullahs.

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Bet Leave did not calculate this ever happening.......
The drama expands.
#Brexit boosts calls for Australia to leave the Commonwealth.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...-commonwealth/ …

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UK credit rating down. Cost of UK debt up. 0.5% on £470 bn debt = £22 Bn. 2X our EU contribution to international money men. Taking control?

Global effect of the Leave....
Friday Brexit crash wiped out a record $2.1 trillion. Now what?
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/27/inve...gory=investing …

Brexit is dangerous because it is strengthening the forces already dragging the world economy down.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/28/up...l-economy.html …

S&P no longer see UK institutions as a strength. Cuts credit rating TWO notches. Worse than financial crisis

[OUTLAW 09]

Putin Using Western Values to Destroy Those Values and the West, Moscow Analyst Says
http://www.interpretermag.com/june-26-2016/#14357 …

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BBC News - Brexit: Gibraltar in talks with Scotland to stay in EU
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-...endum-36639770 …

[OUTLAW 09]

EU has now formally stated......

EU Council
✔ @EUCouncil #Brexit: how to trigger article50?Negotiations on #leave & future relations to start only after formal notification: http://ow.ly/RRkF301GGvJ

[Azor]

Then....if that were the case then why did they yell immediately for funding relief knowing the UK budget can never pick up 60-70B Pounds per year as the same demands will coming in from other areas as well.

The subsidy is GBP 60 million not billion, and again this works out to roughly GBP 112 annually per person. As I mentioned in my previous comment, there will be winners and losers from Brexit, but I believe that the overall long-term impact can be beneficial.

Secondly, you have not factored in the massive loss to both the FTSE 100 and 250 and the 250 is still falling today and those are mainly Brit companies and the 12-13% loss in the Pound...The amounts clawed back from the EU will go largely to cover these and the coming financial loses....and will not be available to cover the economy. With the lowering of the sovereign rating by Moodys...that added an additional 4B Pounds to debt service per year as well and the lowering by S&P to negative will hinder greatly any investment made by outside companies...and it will make it hard for the UK to raise funds going forward...

The financial markets loathe uncertainty and short-term losses in both the LSE and GBP were to be expected. The equity and foreign exchange losses are not permanent, nor do they indicate that the BoE or Treasury will have to intervene with a bailout.

What Moody's did was lower the outlook on the UK's debt, but affirmed its rating of AA1. Note that Moody's lowered the UK's debt rating to AA1 from AAA in 2013, when the UK's membership in the EU was not in question, which was the case in 2015. Moody's also lowered the ratings on US and France as well in 2013.

The GBP $4 billion that you refer to is clearly speculative in nature, and I would caution that UK debt is denominated in GBP, which as you noted has fallen precipitously against the USD and EUR since the referendum outcome. Therefore, the debt would be lower in real terms.

There will be an impact on the City of London's financial sector, although the size and scope remains to be seen. Certainly, the EBA and FSA had already been locking horns, and there has been a sense that the sector has profited by EU interactions at the expense of the rest of the British economy.

Scotland's First Minister has made noises about another secession referendum, although the Scottish Parliament has no authority to conduct one without assent from Westminster.

Having said that let's look at the national breakdown:

• England comprises roughly 83.50% of the UK's population, but provides 86.50% of its GDP and tax revenues. In return, England receives 3% less in government spending per capita than the UK average
  
• Scotland comprises 8.20% of the UK's population and GDP, 8.00% of its tax revenues and receives 15.50% more government spending per capita than the UK average
  
• Northern Ireland comprises 2.90% of the UK's population and 2.50% of its GDP, but provides only 2.10% of its tax revenues. In return, Northern Ireland receives 23.75% more in government spending per capita

Overall, assuming that there can be an equitable way to share the North Sea oil and gas, and assuming that Scotland and England can come to an amicable security arrangement, a Scottish secession would benefit England. Comparatively speaking, England is the driving force of the British economy and is more productive by any measure than the other constituent nations.

[Compost]

The Brexit forces have won the day and that should probably have been expected. The EU is an awkward construct intended to homogenise regional groups which do not share a common language and a common or adopted heritage.

And of course Cameron has to resign. He mistook supposed EU willingness to talk about problems as preparedness to modify the functioning of its antidemocractic socialist bureaucracy. The consequent reaction of the UK population was another historic though narrow win for common sense and assessment over fervour and wishful thinking.

The posturing of German Chancellor Merkel has been counter productive in three major areas. One was the continuous scheming in conjunction with fellow socialist French President Hollande to downgrade the involvement of the UK within the EU. Another disastrous ploy was encouragement in western Ukraine of the uprising against an unpopular but elected government in order to facilitate an eastward expansion of EU and NATO influence. The most recent was Merkel’s pretentious welcoming of border crossers and people smugglers into Europe.

In combination those initiatives have done more damage to the European community than contrived by any politician for decades. Merkel should have resigned after the Ukraine, and should now be dumped as incompetent. Hopefully the dumping will occur before the end of July 2016, and well before Cameron makes an honourable departure.

But regardless of what happens to those two, the EU is likely to continue for some period as a peculiar amalgam of inequalities and inequities before eventually becoming a workable federation of regional states. And for much or all of the interim it seems preferable to let the Europeans learn by experience in the same way as the UK and its constituent parts and previous colonies have done.

[Azor]

The Brexit forces have won the day and that should probably have been expected. The EU is an awkward construct intended to homogenise regional groups which do not share a common language and a common or adopted heritage.

And of course Cameron has to resign. He mistook supposed EU willingness to talk about problems as preparedness to modify the functioning of its antidemocractic socialist bureaucracy. The consequent reaction of the UK population was another historic though narrow win for common sense and assessment over fervour and wishful thinking.

The posturing of German Chancellor Merkel has been counter productive in three major areas. One was the continuous scheming in conjunction with fellow socialist French President Hollande to downgrade the involvement of the UK within the EU. Another disastrous ploy was encouragement in western Ukraine of the uprising against an unpopular but elected government in order to facilitate an eastward expansion of EU and NATO influence. The most recent was Merkel’s pretentious welcoming of border crossers and people smugglers into Europe.

In combination those initiatives have done more damage to the European community than contrived by any politician for decades. Merkel should have resigned after the Ukraine, and should now be dumped as incompetent. Hopefully the dumping will occur before the end of July 2016, and well before Cameron makes an honourable departure.

But regardless of what happens to those two, the EU is likely to continue for some period as a peculiar amalgam of inequalities and inequities before eventually becoming a workable federation of regional states. And for much or all of the interim it seems preferable to let the Europeans learn by experience in the same way as the UK and its constituent parts and previous colonies have done.

Absolutely on point, although I would say that Ukraine was about the EU vs. EEU. If NATO really was the issue, Greece, Italy, Germany or any other member sympathetic to Russia could have blocked Ukraine's accession, and Obama has been more concerned with police shootings than foreign policy.

[OUTLAW 09]

The subsidy is GBP 60 million not billion, and again this works out to roughly GBP 112 annually per person. As I mentioned in my previous comment, there will be winners and losers from Brexit, but I believe that the overall long-term impact can be beneficial.



The financial markets loathe uncertainty and short-term losses in both the LSE and GBP were to be expected. The equity and foreign exchange losses are not permanent, nor do they indicate that the BoE or Treasury will have to intervene with a bailout.

What Moody's did was lower the outlook on the UK's debt, but affirmed its rating of AA1. Note that Moody's lowered the UK's debt rating to AA1 from AAA in 2013, when the UK's membership in the EU was not in question, which was the case in 2015. Moody's also lowered the ratings on US and France as well in 2013.

The GBP $4 billion that you refer to is clearly speculative in nature, and I would caution that UK debt is denominated in GBP, which as you noted has fallen precipitously against the USD and EUR since the referendum outcome. Therefore, the debt would be lower in real terms.

There will be an impact on the City of London's financial sector, although the size and scope remains to be seen. Certainly, the EBA and FSA had already been locking horns, and there has been a sense that the sector has profited by EU interactions at the expense of the rest of the British economy.

Scotland's First Minister has made noises about another secession referendum, although the Scottish Parliament has no authority to conduct one without assent from Westminster.

Having said that let's look at the national breakdown:

• England comprises roughly 83.50% of the UK's population, but provides 86.50% of its GDP and tax revenues. In return, England receives 3% less in government spending per capita than the UK average
  
• Scotland comprises 8.20% of the UK's population and GDP, 8.00% of its tax revenues and receives 15.50% more government spending per capita than the UK average
  
• Northern Ireland comprises 2.90% of the UK's population and 2.50% of its GDP, but provides only 2.10% of its tax revenues. In return, Northern Ireland receives 23.75% more in government spending per capita

Overall, assuming that there can be an equitable way to share the North Sea oil and gas, and assuming that Scotland and England can come to an amicable security arrangement, a Scottish secession would benefit England. Comparatively speaking, England is the driving force of the British economy and is more productive by any measure than the other constituent nations.

Azor...so you clearly stating that in fact the billions wiped off of the FTSE 100 and 250 which the 250 is the most critical, international companies and now even Brit companies signaling now a major pull back on investment, with the fire sale of TaTa not even being thought about now due to lack of overseas bidders, the GBP dropping again today....will all only have short term effects?

The drops in both FTSEs effect Brit pensioners massively, and yes a cheaper pound and the BoE pushing the interest rate probably to zero makes the house owner happy as most mortgages are tracker mortgages but the cost of gasoline is rising as are the normal food products imported which UK is a gross importer...are going to impact the overall cost of living in a country with a low income majority which was the main support for leave.....and the low GBP will push short term exports...ALSO remember that most home owners see their house values as a long term pension plan...those have now dropped in value of roughly 12% and still falling....

Overall the economy hit will not be cleared for a long time to come....

BUT more importantly this is the critical point in all of this....

NOW the Conservatives are talking about the following EU negotiations plan.....

The so called "Norway model" meaning free access to the single market and so form of free movement.

BUT even Norway warned England that you still have to paid the EU membership fees and still have to allow free movement BUT have absolutely no voice in EU decision...meaning pay but no play.....

So was not the election all about taking back their country, not being ruled by Brussels seen as a supranational empire, was it not against free movement of labor and more importantly was it not against immigration....???

IF that was and still is the case then why kneecap your economy wiping out billons of savings and pensions AND then turnaround and say to the Leave voters...hey this is all we got from the EU....we can access the single markets BUT at the somewhat higher fees than before yearly fees and we will still have immigration and free movement.

Make sense to you????

So when does a country fire their entire political party system and start all over.....why do you think UKIP pushed so hard....??

BTW markets will fall another 2-3% on the FTSE 100 and probably another 4-6% on 250 today and the market traders are waiting to see if it breaks through 1.32 to the USD........just based on overnight trading it might in fact break through........if it breaks through then it will hit the estimated bottom value of 1.20 USD.....adding 15-20% increase in already raised gasoline price...although some really good currency trading see it at par value 1 to 1.

[OUTLAW 09]

Nick Clegg predicted the future with stunning accuracy
http://i100.io/AUcETQj

BREAKING
Japanese 40 year Bond falls to lowest level in history....

[OUTLAW 09]

What I do not see is much discussion on actual Russian non linear warfare being practiced in the UK prior to this vote...both money and info warfare.....

AND over a long number of years starting with UKIP.........

Referendum is the instrument of #Russian hybrid war; one was planned in #Ukraine in 2012 by #Putin’s pal #Medvedchuk
https://goo.gl/KP5UHk


Wall Street Journal
✔ @WSJ The European Commission has moved to focus on using French and German in communications, following the #Brexit vote http://on.wsj.com/296rdQ0
Sorry behind pay wall...

Even after epic drop, here's why the British pound is destined for more misery
http://cnb.cx/291ZwX5

[OUTLAW 09]

AND naturally from the best right wing Brit party...UKIP....

U.K.’s Nigel Farage: Obama behaved ‘disgracefully’ by campaigning against Brexit
http://politi.co/296UoCw

AND from the split does not know what it wants UK Conservative Party ..."we want to rejoin the EU after we left it"......

Jeremy Hunt Calls For Second EU Referendum
http://news.sky.com/story/1718563/je...-eu-referendum …

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....heads up as this goes along what I have been saying and it is from the UK FT......

Brexit in seven charts.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0260242c-3...9b15a8ee7.html …

BTW...the UK Finance Minister this morning announced exactly what will kill the UK economy long term......taxes are going to go up and in the end way up and public spending will cut...remember this is what the majority of the poor areas that voted to Leave were complaining about...the 40 yrs of a lack of public spending...well it is now going to get worse......far worse.....

Again to the cheers of UKIP...........