UK Declares Independence From The EU!

[Azor]

Azor...so you clearly stating that in fact the billions wiped off of the FTSE 100 and 250 which the 250 is the most critical, international companies and now even Brit companies signaling now a major pull back on investment, with the fire sale of TaTa not even being thought about now due to lack of overseas bidders, the GBP dropping again today....will all only have short term effects?

The June 24 selloff off of the FTSE 100 was not worse than in 1987 or 2008, although for the FTSE 250 only 1987 was worse. However, stock market crashes occur over a period of months and flash crashes, as we saw in January and February of this year across the major equity indices, represent more of a buying opportunity than an indicator of a major downturn or secular bear market. To be honest, we'll have to take stock of the situation, no pun intended, in 2-3 months.

Overall the economy hit will not be cleared for a long time to come...

The British economy will adjust and in the short-term it will cause pain and joy to different players, but the EU is not going to impose sanctions on exports to the UK because Brussels' socio-political re-engineering of Europe was rejected by the English; this is particularly true as various EU factions want to begin selling foodstuffs to Russia again.

NOW the Conservatives are talking about the following EU negotiations plan.....The so called "Norway model" meaning free access to the single market and so form of free movement. BUT even Norway warned England that you still have to paid the EU membership fees and still have to allow free movement BUT have absolutely no voice in EU decision...meaning pay but no play.....

The EFTA is not the same as the EU, and Schengen cannot be used for those seeking welfare benefits. Moreover, the UK had a unique opt-out to the Schengen Agreement despite EU membership. We do not know what the government after Cameron's will decide, but a separate free trade deal with the EU is possible, as was negotiated with Canada, Israel, etc.

So was not the election all about taking back their country, not being ruled by Brussels seen as a supranational empire, was it not against free movement of labor and more importantly was it not against immigration....???

Brussels has certainly overreached. The EU is a great idea if left as a Free Trade Area or Customs Union, but the bureaucrats in Brussels want to expand their power within the union and expand the union itself. The UK immigration system has been broken for decades, long before the Polish plumbers and the Roma beggars appeared. Brexit is but the first in a series of steps needed to control the borders and prevent the "rivers of blood" that Enoch Powell spoke of decades ago.

IF that was and still is the case then why kneecap your economy wiping out billons of savings and pensions AND then turnaround and say to the Leave voters...hey this is all we got from the EU....we can access the single markets BUT at the somewhat higher fees than before yearly fees and we will still have immigration and free movement

Again, you're making assumptions about the UK's tight spot with regard to future negotiations while ignoring all the Eurozone countries that want access to the UK's market. And by the UK's market, I mean the productive people in England rather than the vocal dependents in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

[OUTLAW 09]

Merkel: Whoever decides to leave eu family cannot keep privileges without keeping obligations

Boris Johnson’s first big statement after Brexit is made of half-truths, magical thinking, and outright lies
http://qz.com/717412 via @qz

[OUTLAW 09]

The June 24 selloff off of the FTSE 100 was not worse than in 1987 or 2008, although for the FTSE 250 only 1987 was worse. However, stock market crashes occur over a period of months and flash crashes, as we saw in January and February of this year across the major equity indices, represent more of a buying opportunity than an indicator of a major downturn or secular bear market. To be honest, we'll have to take stock of the situation, no pun intended, in 2-3 months.



The British economy will adjust and in the short-term it will cause pain and joy to different players, but the EU is not going to impose sanctions on exports to the UK because Brussels' socio-political re-engineering of Europe was rejected by the English; this is particularly true as various EU factions want to begin selling foodstuffs to Russia again.



The EFTA is not the same as the EU, and Schengen cannot be used for those seeking welfare benefits. Moreover, the UK had a unique opt-out to the Schengen Agreement despite EU membership. We do not know what the government after Cameron's will decide, but a separate free trade deal with the EU is possible, as was negotiated with Canada, Israel, etc.



Brussels has certainly overreached. The EU is a great idea if left as a Free Trade Area or Customs Union, but the bureaucrats in Brussels want to expand their power within the union and expand the union itself. The UK immigration system has been broken for decades, long before the Polish plumbers and the Roma beggars appeared. Brexit is but the first in a series of steps needed to control the borders and prevent the "rivers of blood" that Enoch Powell spoke of decades ago.



Again, you're making assumptions about the UK's tight spot with regard to future negotiations while ignoring all the Eurozone countries that want access to the UK's market. And by the UK's market, I mean the productive people in England rather than the vocal dependents in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Azor...you truly do not get exactly what is happening right now do you....listen to Merkel's comments today, listen to the EU Commissions President's statement today....

Look at the FT charts and then tell me...everything is fine and will work and it is all just going to be a "short time".......

Markets and large companies go where they can export and earn profits with limited interference AND they were based in the UK simply due to low salaries..and ease of exports into the EU with virtually little restrictions and tariffs.....do not think for a moment they will not move over time to Czech Republic or Poland where they are now based.

Do not think for a moment that investment wants a location where it cannot flow into and out of the EU with any restrictions...they will simply move to the EU ....so what is the impact of that on the Brit economy when it moves to the EU out of UK?

So go back a review the FT charts and tell me I am wrong......

What about the £350m a week sent to Brussels?

This figure — widely promoted by the Leave campaign — is not correct, as several Brexiters acknowledged after the polls had closed. When pushed, the Leave campaign accepts that Britain’s net contributions are much lower after the rebate secured by Margaret Thatcher and payments to farmers, poorer regions and science. Britain does, however, make net contributions to the EU budget of £8.5bn in 2015, about £163m a week. This will be saved once the UK had left the EU and Britain would get to choose how it spent the money currently allocated for farmers and others by common EU rules.

Alternative explanation
A net contribution of £8.5bn is roughly £1 out of every £100 the British government spends every year, so any savings will be small. The Institute for Fiscal Studies and others have pointed out that if leaving the EU implies slower growth, the net saving would be wiped out through lower tax revenues and higher benefit spending — even if the growth reduction was merely 0.6 per cent. The IFS estimated that if the economic assessments of Brexit were accurate, leaving the EU would cost UK taxpayers between £20bn and £40bn a year.

Assessment
There is no doubt that the effect of EU membership on national income was more important for the UK public finances than the annual membership fee. This is the dominant issue and a small hit would leave Britain’s public sector worse off.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....and this......

GBP continues to tumble against Ukraine's Hryvnia, one of least stable currencies in Europe and it continues to fall even now.....

GERMAN CARMAKERS in blow to LEAVE #Brexit "UK will have to accept free movement of EU citizens in return for access to the single market"

Pretty grim reading. This Is Just the Start of the Brexit’s Economic Disaster
http://nyti.ms/290SJxN

[OUTLAW 09]

After insulting the EU Farage then asks for its mercy
https://twitter.com/AncaGurzu/status/747724443548549120 …

After calling for a "grown-up" attitude, Farage says "most of you have never worked a day in your lives." He's been an MEP for 17 years.

After insulting, mocking EU lawmakers British Leave campaigner Farage calls for "grown-up" Brexit negotiations

The whole EP is literally laughing at Nigel Farage

Marine Le Pen, French far-right leader, supports Farage, says to EU parliament "the British told you where to get off"

Marine Le Pen, whose party received €50 million from Russia, claiming that EU forces their members to poverty

With no British Commissioner now present in Brussels, this is who is defacto speaking for us in European Parliament.

From Merkel in German who those in the UK ie UKIP........and even the Conservatives...........you cannot pick the cherries you want or not want..it will not be allowed......
Im #Brexit-Liveblog: #Merkel sagt, in den Verhandlungen mit London dürfe „Rosinenpickerei“ nicht geduldet werden.
http://faz.net/-gpf-8ii1i#GEPC;s30 …

Swedish PM: "Sounds like UK wants to cherry pick benefits of EU membership but that doesn't work. Leaving will have consequences."

[OUTLAW 09]

Light Brexit humor.......

Latest post-#BrexitVote scores:
Tories: -1 Leader
Labour: -33 Shadow ministers
Lib Dems: +7000 new members
Leave: -all campaign promises

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...............and the march to leave begins.........

Sir Richard Branson: Chinese investors quitting UK over Brexit vote - business live
http://trib.al/PRlcjyY

[OUTLAW 09]

The New York Times
✔ @nytimes "Well, that didn't take long." Brexit proponents' false promises crumble:
http://nyti.ms/290LLWC

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...............and the march to leave begins.........

Sir Richard Branson: Chinese investors quitting UK over Brexit vote - business live
http://trib.al/PRlcjyY

London start-up scene weighs threat of British Techxit
http://reut.rs/291Nzm3
Berlin has already started putting out feelers to the London startups....as the Berlin startup scene is now pulling strong EU and US VC monies.

Berlin eyes Britain’s tech talent | BBC News
http://buff.ly/294zaTC

Brexit Boon Seen for European Cities -SG's Oudea sees renewed opportunities for Paris -
http://bloom.bg/29elROz

[OUTLAW 09]

Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum
Once again, @NickCohen4: on the looming threat of a real British far-right
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06...right-britain/ …

The nationalist genie is now out of the bottle, writes @hugorifkind
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/th...f910d441e37ae8 …

“Unspeakable become speakable.“ #Brexit “opened up Pandora’s box” of resentment & suspicion. Nasty. And troubling.
http://gu.com/p/4mnev?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other …

[OUTLAW 09]

Financial Times
✔ @FT The Bank of England has injected £3.1bn of liquidity into UK banks after Brexit.
http://on.ft.com/2905y6H

The UK Government has shelved plans to sell RBS and Lloyds shares after Brexit
http://ind.pn/29bnMEC

[OUTLAW 09]

Under the rubric of ...what the heck...and this is an UK politician.....

Yesterday Boris set out his Brexit plan. Today his aides say we should dismiss it because he was tired. This is actually happening.

So he writes a rather sloppy article and then backpedals and backpedals and backpedals using the excuse "he was tired"...then do not write it to begin with....

Boris Telegraph y'day column was "written too quickly" and he's tired. Friends agree sloppy & sent mixed messages & will be vetted in future

[OUTLAW 09]

Financial Times
✔ @FT The Bank of England has injected £3.1bn of liquidity into UK banks after Brexit.
http://on.ft.com/2905y6H

The UK Government has shelved plans to sell RBS and Lloyds shares after Brexit
http://ind.pn/29bnMEC

After #Brexit, @ReutersGraphics looks at other cities where U.S. banks could set up shop:
http://reut.rs/297srsm

[OUTLAW 09]

Devastating call from German grandmother who says she hasn't left house in 3 days due to fear of Brexit xenophobia: https://www.buzzfeed.com/victoriasan...9N#.bwYNam5J4g …

[Bill Moore]

The June 24 selloff off of the FTSE 100 was not worse than in 1987 or 2008, although for the FTSE 250 only 1987 was worse. However, stock market crashes occur over a period of months and flash crashes, as we saw in January and February of this year across the major equity indices, represent more of a buying opportunity than an indicator of a major downturn or secular bear market. To be honest, we'll have to take stock of the situation, no pun intended, in 2-3 months.



The British economy will adjust and in the short-term it will cause pain and joy to different players, but the EU is not going to impose sanctions on exports to the UK because Brussels' socio-political re-engineering of Europe was rejected by the English; this is particularly true as various EU factions want to begin selling foodstuffs to Russia again.



The EFTA is not the same as the EU, and Schengen cannot be used for those seeking welfare benefits. Moreover, the UK had a unique opt-out to the Schengen Agreement despite EU membership. We do not know what the government after Cameron's will decide, but a separate free trade deal with the EU is possible, as was negotiated with Canada, Israel, etc.



Brussels has certainly overreached. The EU is a great idea if left as a Free Trade Area or Customs Union, but the bureaucrats in Brussels want to expand their power within the union and expand the union itself. The UK immigration system has been broken for decades, long before the Polish plumbers and the Roma beggars appeared. Brexit is but the first in a series of steps needed to control the borders and prevent the "rivers of blood" that Enoch Powell spoke of decades ago.



Again, you're making assumptions about the UK's tight spot with regard to future negotiations while ignoring all the Eurozone countries that want access to the UK's market. And by the UK's market, I mean the productive people in England rather than the vocal dependents in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Azor,

I agree with you, I'm not buying into the hysteria. In less than week After the Brexit referendum the fearmongers have described the end of Europe. Hardly, but there will be market adjustments. I'm buying into the fear. The EU is bigger than free trade, it is increasingly treading on areas of what should be state sovereignty. This is a wake up call, that theoretically presents an opportunity for needed adjustments.

[OUTLAW 09]

EP President
✔ @EP_President Waiting several months for purely internal party political reasons would be unacceptable. Would lead to prolonged uncertainty

Hollande almost willing UK out the door:"cannot imagine a British govt, no matter who it is, not respecting the choice of their own people"

[Firn]

Well if Brexit happens it will obviously not be the end of the world, indeed Europe has seen much worse and is still there and one of the richest areas of this world.

For everybody who wishes to inform himself there is a vast amount of studies, papers, comments about the implications of a Brexit. Ironically the only big advantage of a Brexit should be a Sterling devalued - due to a lack of confidence in the British economy. Much of Britain's economic fortune will depend on European decisions, which is of course one of those many ironies.


Perhaps the most important graph for the Treasury and why I don think that the stunning rating cut is just a small fish in this mess. Keep in mind that this act would be normally the news in the financial world - reminds me of a comment after the ref about a PM quitting being just headline number 3...








Keep in mind that this is part of a historic trend and that the 10Y Bund yield turned negative due to the flight to safety...

[OUTLAW 09]

All we hear on UK TV is talk about how the FTSE and GBP RALLIED......

Well the GBP gained a SINGLE cent....and the FTSE 100 on simply taking the cheap stocks only rose 2.7% and the FTSE 250 barely 3-4%

BUT the GBP has never been under 1.40 for longer than two days.....and the loses from Black Friday on both the FTSEs have not been regained at all.

The only real activity has been in buying cheap shares...so the markets are still waiting to see if the second shoe falls.

[OUTLAW 09]

Branson says Virgin Group loses third of its value after Brexit
http://reut.rs/292ot6v

[Azor]

Azor...you truly do not get exactly what is happening right now do you....

Actually when I'm looking at a sea of red on my screen and my livelihood is disrupted, I can tell you that I understand perfectly. Unfortunately, the market's desire for certainty is such that it would prefer the certainty of a Brussels-Moscow-Beijing triumvirate ruling over Eurasia than the uncertainty of democratic states.

...listen to Merkel's comments today, listen to the EU Commissions President's statement today...Look at the FT charts and then tell me...everything is fine and will work and it is all just going to be a "short time".......Markets and large companies go where they can export and earn profits with limited interference AND they were based in the UK simply due to low salaries..and ease of exports into the EU with virtually little restrictions and tariffs.....do not think for a moment they will not move over time to Czech Republic or Poland where they are now based. Do not think for a moment that investment wants a location where it cannot flow into and out of the EU with any restrictions...they will simply move to the EU ....so what is the impact of that on the Brit economy when it moves to the EU out of UK? So go back a review the FT charts and tell me I am wrong......

How do extremely short-term charts determine how businesses will allocate capital 5-10 years from now? What about the flip-side of that coin where EU firms demand a fair FTA with the UK in order to keep selling to British customers? If the UK economy was based upon exporting to the EU, than it has already been failing for the past 15+ years...

If France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the others want to subsidize the newer EU members of East-Central Europe so that they are more attractive to firms then that is their choice. Such a decision will not alleviate the problems in the PIGS economies nor France's unemployment. The UK has chosen not to do that.

What about the £350m a week sent to Brussels?

I have never quoted this figure. The figures I quoted however, indicated that the UK was a substantial net contributor to the EU far in excess of Thatcher-negotiated rebates or EU spending in the UK.

...on the looming threat of a real British far-right...

I'm trying to understand this. So, a country exercises its democratic rights and is given a hostile reception by a supranational entity that was not democratically established and this democratic decision is equated with the rise of Fascism, subservience to Russia and economic self-sabotage?

I am not surprised that the political and financial class who have their offshore funds are using thinly-veiled scare tactics to prompt a redo by electing a government that will not abide by the referendum.

I suppose the elite want to elect another people...