Russo-Ukraine War 2016 (July-September)

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia'n army - 1st army ever to go on vacation with full equipment.

Video of more of Putin's invaders captured near Shyrokyne Ukraine
http://buff.ly/29vLVqV

Albright at #WSEF16 - Putin's worldview is colored by toxic fictions
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-...-is-colored-by …

Mercenaries from the 9th Infantry Regiment stated that they were commanded by officers from the regular Russian army https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/...31348925313025 …

Russian Armed Forces TV ("Star"): In the event of war, "the Russian army would completely destroy NATO troops" http://tvzvezda.ru/news/vstrane_i_mi...81008-kwb4.htm …

[OUTLAW 09]

Oh look, an SVR-approved "think-tank" is pimping Trump's "genius" Russia adviser.
Nothing to see here, folks.

http://katehon.com/node/34124

[OUTLAW 09]

Kazakhstan calls on Russia to allow transit of Ukrainian goods
http://www.unian.info/economics/1407...ian-goods.html …

Strengthening the role of Europe and Germany in #NATO is becoming more important.
http://ceip.org/29vfb0H

[OUTLAW 09]

OSCE SMM Ukraine @OSCE_SMM
#OSCE’s Hug: Sharp increase in level of violence last week: No. of explosions tripled compared to previous week, reaching 3000+

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian party on tonight......

19:32 #Avdiivka @Cryion1 Artillery wakes up, single rounds once every 5-10 min

19:35 #Donetsk #railway station @TaylerRid Darkness hasn't fallen yet, and far artillery is already pounding

19:35 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [ok.ru]
#Putilovka:"just in fr/the street, #Spartak dir'n is fighting"
"#Shakhtarska can hear it fr/far off"

19:48 #Makiivka @PriestEtlau Booms are heard for more than an hour if you mean #Gvardeyka direction

20:00 #Donetsk #Severnyi @rjpthjuljytwr #Pisky direction is noisy

20:16 #Donetsk #ploschadka1 @rjpthjuljytwr For 5 min so far, they try to shoot UAV down involving heavy and small arms

20:20 #Horlivka [pro-RU source] @Julia__JM B attle began in #Zaytseve, one can sometimes hear loud explosions [fr/there]

20:34 #Donetsk @axilles666 #Marinka-#Trudovski: not active but constant shooting at [contact] line

OSCE’s Hug: 373 explosions recorded in Shyrokyne-Kominternove area last week – the highest figure there since last September

In mortar attack near Debaltseve after 6pm wounded 3 Ukrainian soldiers
pic.twitter.com/mvXKs7YDm4
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-...er-6pm-wounded …

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian party on tonight......

19:32 #Avdiivka @Cryion1 Artillery wakes up, single rounds once every 5-10 min

19:35 #Donetsk #railway station @TaylerRid Darkness hasn't fallen yet, and far artillery is already pounding

19:35 #Donetsk @rjpthjuljytwr [ok.ru]
#Putilovka:"just in fr/the street, #Spartak dir'n is fighting"
"#Shakhtarska can hear it fr/far off"

19:48 #Makiivka @PriestEtlau Booms are heard for more than an hour if you mean #Gvardeyka direction

20:00 #Donetsk #Severnyi @rjpthjuljytwr #Pisky direction is noisy

20:16 #Donetsk #ploschadka1 @rjpthjuljytwr For 5 min so far, they try to shoot UAV down involving heavy and small arms

20:20 #Horlivka [pro-RU source] @Julia__JM B attle began in #Zaytseve, one can sometimes hear loud explosions [fr/there]

20:34 #Donetsk @axilles666 #Marinka-#Trudovski: not active but constant shooting at [contact] line

OSCE’s Hug: 373 explosions recorded in Shyrokyne-Kominternove area last week – the highest figure there since last September

LifeNews: Putin asks Merkel and Hollande to influence Poroshenko to stop his provocations.
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-...e-to-influence …

Hug:Sides too close to each other:just few100 m between UA AF&“LPR” at Stanytsia Luhanska
pic.twitter.com/IGGFNfBGPn
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-...st-few-hundred …

Important: (PRO-)RUSSIANS crossed the #Minsk demarcation line.
Instead of pushing them back,#UKR established new CP.

OSCE’s Hug: along the Svitlodarsk-Debaltseve road 700% increase in no. of ceasefire violations compared to previous week

[OUTLAW 09]

Lukashevich:Unfortunately,Kyiv appears unwilling to implement Minsk & is playing for time
pic.twitter.com/jCxGuy46Yj
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-...s-unwilling-to …

SBU found two caches with ammunition in the area of ATO pic.twitter.com/ddYPzXvXyJ
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-...in-the-area-of …

Fields on fire near Mariupol
pic.twitter.com/oastE2k9Y2
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-...-near-mariupol …

[Azor]

...Putin is always seemingly underestimating the impact of his actions towards both Finland and Sweden...the Russians wonder why the public opinion swung against Putin..and for NATO membership...We have seen the same public opinion swing develop in Ukraine where at during the Maidan....the public polling was showing extremely low numbers wanting to join NATO but after Crimea and the invasion of eastern Ukraine and two solid years of constant fighting the latest polling's show a 78% in favor of now joining....Why would he be surprised by the sudden majority wanting to join NATO..if anyone is to blame it is Putin himself...

This is why I've been hesitant to refer to Putin as a chess master as the Western press is wont to do every time he does something surprising:

• The Kremlin has signaled its interest in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Crimea and Donbas since the dissolution of the Soviet Union
• No Russia watcher would predict that Russia would accept the withdrawal of the Black Sea Fleet from Crimea
• No Russia watcher would predict that Russia would ever allow Belarus or Ukraine to join NATO
• The accession of the Baltic republics and Operation Allied Force were very provocative for Russia, although the West did not comprehend it at the time

Therefore, I do not find Putin's strategic actions very surprising, even if he is tactically creative.

While Bush, Jr. sacrificed all foreign policy objectives in favor of the War on Terror, during Obama's tenure, the following has happened:

• Ukraine (most of it) has firmly joined the Western camp
• Russia no longer has access to Ukraine's important defense industries
• The SVR/GRU is out in Ukraine and Western intelligence is in
• Minsk is tacking westward
• Astana is tacking toward Beijing
• NATO ballistic missile defense continues under a new acronym
• Instead of causing trouble in the Middle East (Egypt) or Central Asia, Moscow is busy assisting clients and partners in Ukraine and Syria
• Russia's economy is damaged enough to defer the 2020 modernization plan without the need for an arms race

Not bad for a community organizer and speechwriter duo, no?

...was an intended leak to let Russia to understand this time around that NATO was taking a firm stand on a number of issues concerning Russia and her military......

I interpreted this as a warning against Russian incursions into NATO airspace by Tu-95s, etc. Basically, I understood that whereas before SACEUR would instruct Polish or Danish air defenses to await orders before firing, now local commanders can shoot down stray Russian aircraft if they feel threatened...

Putin knows fully well that their strategic ICBMs shields are not in any way effected nor their second strike ICBMs......

According to CSIS, it is reasonable to assume that a NATO BMD system based in East-Central Europe could whittle down Russia's second strike capability.

I am all for deploying advanced air defense systems to East-Central Europe in order to establish a NATO A2/AD zone, but I question the wisdom of NATO BMD/EPAA. If Iran is the threat, then why not establish the system in Turkey, Israel or in the Gulf States? Moreover, one would be hard pressed to explain how Iran has the intent, let alone the capability to conduct significant strikes on European NATO members. Lastly, isn't Aegis "afloat" enough?

What many in the US decision making circles need to urgently check are the ever growing actual number of nuclear warheads over the agreed to treaty numbers.....Russia is ever so quietly increasing them...

Russia's increase is more posturing than anything else, especially given the woeful state of their SLBM deterrent, and Russia does not actually have to reach the limits until 2018, if I recall.

...Putin is deadly afraid of the "color revolts" and that is at the core of Georgia and Ukraine....why...it is exactly the Maidan events that scare him the most as Maidan showed to the Russians that they can in fact as a civil society throw off the massive Soviet style corruption and the oligarch system also a left over of the collapse of the SU....and that a civil society can in fact demand and fight for the rule of law, good governance and transparency.....

This happened in 1991 during the relatively bloodless August Coup. But by 1993, Russians accepted when Yeltsin used tanks against parliament and killed 200 to 2000 people and then later launched a disastrous and bloody war in Chechnya. Many Russians think that Putin doesn't go far enough in fact, so I would be cautious about advocating his ouster.

This NATO BN becomes the Article 5 "trip wire" thus triggering automatically Article 5 to go to war.....that is why Poland, and the Baltics want them there...it ensures them of NATO Article 5 support.

It is there to reassure Poland and the Baltics that US and allied lives are on the line as well.

We saw this same thing during the Cold War on the inner German border...where the US Army Cavalry units both with their Cobras and ground armored mech units were constantly patrolling the inner German border ALL with the explicit knowledge that if the Soviets ever did cross over they were toast militarily speaking but their being engaged directly by Soviet troops triggered automatically NATO Article 5....and they were designed to initially to simply slow down the Soviet forces giving time for other units behind them to go to war status and get out of their bases and into defensive positions. All NATO Cold War exercises until 1991 practiced this exact maneuver.....for example while the Cav units where being grind into the ground other NATO demo teams were destroying via prepared demo chambers all LOCs that could be used thus slowing down the Soviet Army also designed to give time for NATO to get into prepared defensive positions....all designed to hold the Rhine river as a natural defensive barrier....until the follow on of US and other NATO troops into the theater could arrive....that was the reasoning behind all the so called "Reforger" exercises.....Many fail to remember that at the height of the Cold War say about 1975-80 there were over 450K NATO troops facing a Soviet Army plus Warsaw Pact forces of roughly the same number....

I gather that these forces were intended to tie down the cumbersome Soviet columns at chokepoints and in built-up areas, particularly the Berlin Brigade.

I expect that in the event of a Russian invasion of the Baltic republics, that NATO forces there will be ordered to conduct asymmetric warfare and FIBA, while NATO uses stand-off weapons to destroy Russian formations in the open and deny any Russian surge across the border. I don't think NATO would risk the barrage of cross-border fire that would result from an amphibious assault as well as the escalation risks of silencing Russian firing positions on Russian soil.

I would imagine that cut-off and harassed by enemy soldiers, the Russians would eventually sue for peace, withdraw and only then would NATO reinforcements land in the Baltics.

[OUTLAW 09]

22:47 #Horlivka @_GivNeyt_ During the last few hours, strained situation in the area of #Zaytseve-#Mayorsk. As of now, artillery salvos& AGL

22:22 #Donetsk #Petrovka @rjpthjuljytwr [fb] Singles boom and "powerful" bursts of small arms

22:28 #Mariupol @iMariupol Behind #Vynohradne closer to #Sopyne [=east fr/M http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=47...76239&z=12&m=b …]
a UAV is flying

Russian forces transfer falsified data to the OSCE - intelligence http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/8-july-...ta-to-the-osce …

[Azor]

https://twitter.com/Interpreter_Mag/...53598173761536

Francois Hollande: "NATO has no role at all to be saying what Europe’s relations with Russia should be. For France, Russia is not an adversary, not a threat. Russia is a partner which, it is true, may sometimes, and we have seen that in Ukraine, use force which we have condemned when it annexed Crimea."


The head of NATO's military committee, Czech General Petr Pavel, tried to bridge the differences: "We must accept that Russia can be a competitor, adversary, peer or partner and probably all four at the same time."

And apparently, a cyber-attack can trigger an Article V response...

[OUTLAW 09]

This is why I've been hesitant to refer to Putin as a chess master as the Western press is wont to do every time he does something surprising:

• The Kremlin has signaled its interest in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Crimea and Donbas since the dissolution of the Soviet Union
• No Russia watcher would predict that Russia would accept the withdrawal of the Black Sea Fleet from Crimea
• No Russia watcher would predict that Russia would ever allow Belarus or Ukraine to join NATO
• The accession of the Baltic republics and Operation Allied Force were very provocative for Russia, although the West did not comprehend it at the time

Therefore, I do not find Putin's strategic actions very surprising, even if he is tactically creative.

While Bush, Jr. sacrificed all foreign policy objectives in favor of the War on Terror, during Obama's tenure, the following has happened:

• Ukraine (most of it) has firmly joined the Western camp
• Russia no longer has access to Ukraine's important defense industries
• The SVR/GRU is out in Ukraine and Western intelligence is in
• Minsk is tacking westward
• Astana is tacking toward Beijing
• NATO ballistic missile defense continues under a new acronym
• Instead of causing trouble in the Middle East (Egypt) or Central Asia, Moscow is busy assisting clients and partners in Ukraine and Syria
• Russia's economy is damaged enough to defer the 2020 modernization plan without the need for an arms race

Not bad for a community organizer and speechwriter duo, no?




I interpreted this as a warning against Russian incursions into NATO airspace by Tu-95s, etc. Basically, I understood that whereas before SACEUR would instruct Polish or Danish air defenses to await orders before firing, now local commanders can shoot down stray Russian aircraft if they feel threatened...



According to CSIS, it is reasonable to assume that a NATO BMD system based in East-Central Europe could whittle down Russia's second strike capability.

I am all for deploying advanced air defense systems to East-Central Europe in order to establish a NATO A2/AD zone, but I question the wisdom of NATO BMD/EPAA. If Iran is the threat, then why not establish the system in Turkey, Israel or in the Gulf States? Moreover, one would be hard pressed to explain how Iran has the intent, let alone the capability to conduct significant strikes on European NATO members. Lastly, isn't Aegis "afloat" enough?



Russia's increase is more posturing than anything else, especially given the woeful state of their SLBM deterrent, and Russia does not actually have to reach the limits until 2018, if I recall.



This happened in 1991 during the relatively bloodless August Coup. But by 1993, Russians accepted when Yeltsin used tanks against parliament and killed 200 to 2000 people and then later launched a disastrous and bloody war in Chechnya. Many Russians think that Putin doesn't go far enough in fact, so I would be cautious about advocating his ouster.



It is there to reassure Poland and the Baltics that US and allied lives are on the line as well.



I gather that these forces were intended to tie down the cumbersome Soviet columns at chokepoints and in built-up areas, particularly the Berlin Brigade.

I expect that in the event of a Russian invasion of the Baltic republics, that NATO forces there will be ordered to conduct asymmetric warfare and FIBA, while NATO uses stand-off weapons to destroy Russian formations in the open and deny any Russian surge across the border. I don't think NATO would risk the barrage of cross-border fire that would result from an amphibious assault as well as the escalation risks of silencing Russian firing positions on Russian soil.

I would imagine that cut-off and harassed by enemy soldiers, the Russians would eventually sue for peace, withdraw and only then would NATO reinforcements land in the Baltics.

So you ascribe the so called list of successes of the Obama/Rhodes WH to what exactly;

1. chaos theories or
2. game theories which is what the former Greek Finance Minister ascribed to when he was dealing with his demands for 300B from the EU and end the end he lost his "game theory".

You do realize that if one waits long enough and something positive happens then history is so written then to make it appear that is was a well thought out FP.

That does not substitute for a total lack of any FP other then one based on "accidental developments".

The Ukraine is far from over and all he is trying to do is get the heck out of Dodge with "something" for his legacy...thus the Kerry statements we might be able to get something before he leaves office..."never quite defining" exactly what that "something looks like".....

Syria and the ME is just starting to get interesting and then he throws it over the fence for the next President...

This is what though one has to watch....the internal "narrative" that Russian info warriors use on their own public as that is the one that ascribes to Putin's mindset...remember Putin has "two narratives" one that he continuously uses to sell the West on that "it's your fault for all of the Ukrainian and Syrian messes" AND the other to his public of we are right and correct in what we are doing and we are being punished for wanting to be a "great and strong' Russia......and it is our right to be a "superpower" as the world has been led to long by the unipolar superpower...the US...

Huge lies in #Russia's press pretending Russia has 0 troops in #Kaliningrad & only 30,000 in Western Milt. District
https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/751619916726308864 …

[OUTLAW 09]

BTW....the ability of the MD system does not have the range in order to hit any Russian ICBM first strike abilities nor the potential follow on ICBM threats.

Even coupled to THADD the current Ageis and Patriot PAC-3s and coupled to the Israeli MD systems simply do not have the intercept ranges needed the last time I worked with them....as they are an inbound protection system not one designed to hit on launch....

A simple fact that Putin keeps overlooking as it does not tie into his "narrative" he feeds the West and his own public.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...my concern is that a large number of these Russian info warfare "narratives" get picked up by US and western MSM and go largely unchecked or challenged.....and yes even within some so call respected MSM...

There use to be a deep Russian analysis academic ability but who studies Russian as a language anymore...I can count on three fingers individuals who I would call true Russian "analysts"....both linguistic, military and political analysts......that I would listen to and they do not sit in think tanks, and or the Obama/Rhodes WH....

Same BTW goes for Syria.

AND that much vaulted US Intel Community.....worthless when it came to Crimea.....they did not even see it comin down the highway straight at them....if it had looked like a battleship.....

Heck they cannot even state with any certainly who drops thermobaric, incendiary and cluster munitions in Syria....

Latest in Trump-Putin bromance: Trump adviser gives rambling talk in Moscow, castigates US, evades Qs https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...advisor-russia

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews
If you watched "Fault Lines" and noticed deliberately incorrect translation & pro-Kremlin leanings, let PBS know!
https://twitter.com/tufkaa/status/751612314449809408 …

Azor..check the PBS "narrative" about events in eastern Ukraine and then tell they have not taken the Russian "bait" full line and sinker......

Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews
PBS—Fault Lines—summed up:
Poor Russia is encircled by NATO.
Ukraine was the last straw.
Cossacks who can barely ride want to restore USSR.

So some strange reason PBS does not fully understand the use of the Cossacks by the Putin regime....as part of their military and internal FP....

Jesus. @NewsHour final "Fault Line" segment an embarrassment of DC Kremlin apologists, historical Cossack fiction...

"Cossack renaissance"—glorifying Russian paid mercenaries in Ukraine.

Don't believe fighting has escalated in eastern Ukraine in past weeks? Have a look at latest @OSCE_SMM reports.

[OUTLAW 09]

NATO "light humor".......

Kremlin condemns NATO's plan to deploy 1% of the amount of troops involved in average Russian snap drill to Poland

BTW...in Russian "snap drills just this year involved over 130,000 active duty Russian mainline troops....on the NATO side for the full year of exercises a total of 30,000......and a large number of these were Reservists....

[OUTLAW 09]

Full combat across the entire Minsk 2 front line....with intense artillery strikes and Russian led ground probes.....

72 ceasefire violations at Donbas on July 8
http://liveuamap.com/en/2016/9-july-...nbas-on-july-8 …
pic.twitter.com/UZlqtwGIxQ

Increase of attacks no.: combined Rus-militant troops fired 72 times upon Ukr troops over last day (56 the day b4) - ATO press center

[OUTLAW 09]

More indications that the Russian economy is barely limping along...question is for how long.....????

They cannot even get their recent international bond sales registered further placing their last sovereign offer in question.....if Euroclear is questioning that is serious as they normally register all sovereign bond sales....

Russia's 10-year t-bonds have yet to be admitted for transactions by #Euroclear, according to ING report:
http://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/ar...umag-euroclear …

[OUTLAW 09]

Historiian: Crimea Followed a 1940 Soviet coup in Estonia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfzB...&feature=share …

"My life as a pro-Putin propagandist in Russia’s secret 'troll factory'"
http://educate-yourself.org/cn/Life-at-

I posted some of this last year and it is good to go back and review about Russian internet troll activities.....and it has gotten far better in the last year.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Spetsnaz is always on the move.....even in so called "peace times"....remember most of the Polish and Soviet long hauler truckers travelling in Europe doing the Cold War were also GRU Spetsnaz recon officers and KGB officers on espionage/sabotage planning missions or Polish SB and or Polish Spetsnaz officers......

A Russian rented a boat from Norway, ran it aground near Scotland. Authorities found sabotage instructions on board. https://twitter.com/Bolle_dok/status/751111107935367168 …

[OUTLAW 09]

1 Ukrainian boarder guard wounded on Mariinka checkpoint due to shellings of Russians.
https://twitter.com/UKRINFORM/status/751673808973619200 …

[OUTLAW 09]

NATO sent a clear message in Warsaw: Russian troops still present in Donbas. Who would know that better than NATO?

Fragile ceasefire on Ukraine’s frontline
http://www.euronews.com/2016/07/08/f...bxFcHY.twitter …

Here comes the Obama/Rhodes "sellout of the Ukraine" by pushing them to implement elections in eastern Ukraine without a single reciprocal mve by Russia.....

Obama pushing for resolution of conflict in east Ukraine reports @carolelee @julianbarnes
http://on.wsj.com/29usTAl