Syria: At least 15 civilians killed, tens wounded in multiple heavy regime airstrikes on #Aleppo|s rebel-held as-Sukkari and Salah ad-Deen.
Interesting to see if Israel responds if confirmed to be true...
NOW English @NOW_eng
#Hezbollah “secretly” deploying in #Quneitra: pro-rebel outlet claims #Golan
http://mme.cm/QMBW00
Syria: At least 15 civilians killed, tens wounded in multiple heavy regime airstrikes on #Aleppo|s rebel-held as-Sukkari and Salah ad-Deen.
IS releases pics of weapons it captured from SDF after the latter's attempt to capture Tell Qarah north of Aleppo
To say "so what, Jaish al-Fatah is all al-Qaeda", like the pro-Assad community does now, is mere propaganda.Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
For the record:
Abu Omar al-Homsi was an Salafist islamist & former Jabhat al-Nusra 'emir' of Idlib prov.
But not "the AQ leader in Syria".
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-09-2016 at 04:16 PM.
MSF International @MSF
#Syria: Al Zahraa hospital in E. #Aleppo damaged after airstrike on Tues - had to stop activities. #DoctorsofAleppo
Aleppo: Sham Front claims 25 pro-Regime casualties after it blew up a booby-trapped building in Ameriya. http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36....131386&z=14&m …
Rebels launched an offensive on several pro-Regime positions in S. #Aleppo.
Rahman corps targeting regime defenses in the governate building with a 23 mm gun.
https://youtu.be/n78z57p9n1E
JFaS report on progress of regime in Khan Touman and the repulsing of regime in warehouse area. #Aleppo (Arabic)
https://youtu.be/TMUtXbbNQUI
Great drone footage......
Sham Legion firing on regime forces on Castillo road with technicals #Aleppo
https://youtu.be/-ShRTwpHMcg
Jaish al Nasr targeting regime forces on al-Arbeyn hill in southern #Aleppo countryside.
A brutal Russian verdict on Syrian army: unable to reform, gets others to win its battles, unworthy of further help
https://citeam.org/here-s-why-assad-...-war-in-syria/ …
Really really really worth reading this as I personally have not seen a similar article since the single Soviet AFG Spetsnaz team that openly stated it is time to go home...which was broadcast on Soviet military TV.....several days before the SU announced they were leaving AFG....I was the only open source collector that had caught a video of this particular SU Spetsnaz and many in the intel community had no idea of what it meant....
This is an English translation of the Russian article I posted this morning....by a very good Russian social media open source analysis team.....
https://citeam.org/here-s-why-assad-...-war-in-syria/
The following is a translation of a scathing article on the state of the Syrian Arab Army that appeared in an online outlet Gazeta.ru, which is Kremlin-controlled but sometimes critical of the Russian authorities online. The author is a retired Russian officer with 8 years of experience working in the General Staff and 5 years as an editor of an established military magazine. The article, originally titled "It would be easier to disband the Syrian army and recruit a new one", mirrors the emerging Syria fatigue sentiments in the Russian military circles and reportedly was confirmed by a serving Russian colonel, who added "Everything is like it’s written but worse". The expert notably omits mentioning regime war crimes even when describing the use of barrel bombs. Throughout the text, he calls Syrian rebels "militants" and "illegal armed groups" — terms widely used by Russian military and media to describe Chechen fighters during the wars. This anti-rebel stance perhaps lends even more credibility to the author’s assessment of their capabilities versus those of the SAA.
While militias, Iranian volunteers, Hezbollah and PMCs fight in lieu of the Syrian army, Bashar Assad’s soldier busy themselves with collecting bribes at checkpoints. This view becomes more and more widespread among military experts aware of the actual situation in Syria. The country’s air force is worn down and uses home-made bombs, the soldiers dig moats to protect from terrorists’ tunnels, while the militants enjoy tactical and moral superiority, says Mikhail Khodarenok, Gazeta.ru’s military observer.
The pro-government forces are likely to capture the city of Aleppo soon. However, it remains doubtful if this will bring the end of the Syrian war closer. In Middle Eastern wars, there is no single building to plant a flag on that would make the enemy surrender unconditionally.
Indeed, it is quite hard to say which side is currently winning the military conflict. Bashar al-Assad, the president of the Syrian Arab Republic, still does not control about half the country’s territory and a majority of towns and villages.
The results of the fighting in Syria so far have been disastrous. The total number of Syrians killed has grown to 250-300 thousand (giving a more precise number is impossible), while about a million people have been wounded. Syrians of all ethnic and religious denominations have grown weary of the civil war that has dragged on for over five years.
Always defeated
The actual fighting against opposition groups is mostly done by Syrian militias, the Lebanese Hezbollah Shia units, Iranian and Iraqi volunteers and Private Military Companies (PMCs).
The main military actions Assad’s army engages in is extorting a tribute from the locals. The Syrian armed forces have not conducted a single successful offensive during the past year.
Apparently Syria’s General Staff has no coherent short-term or mid-term strategic plans. Assad’s generals do not believe their troops can bring the country to order without military aid from foreign states. They do not plan large-scale operations, giving the reasoning of ostensibly high combat capabilities of the illegal armed groups, lack of ammunition and modern equipment, a fear of heavy losses and a negative outcome of the fighting.
The Syrian army’s junior officers, NCOs and privates have little enthusiasm to charge and fight for their motherland. The general morale deterioration is exacerbated by the fact that the history of the modern Syrian army has known no military victories.
Assad’s army bears the brand of constant defeats and humiliations since the first Arab-Israeli wars of 1947-1948.
The Syrian army fighters see no close end to the crisis. There are no set dates of ending military service. The achievements of soldiers and officers are not encouraged or awarded. The materiel and food supplies are inadequate. There are no benefits for soldiers or their families.
Most importantly, even if the Syrian leadership wished to solve these problems, they couldn’t raise the funds to do so. Assad’s government currently has no stable income sources. Years of fighting have severely disrupted the country’s economy. Industrial production has fallen by 70%, agriculture — by 60%, oil production — by 95% and natural production — by 70%. The Syrian treasury has no money even for immediate defense expenditures.
This situation is further exacerbated by the Syrian army being severely understaffed and underequipped. Currently, the staffing and equipment levels stand a bit over 50% of the required figures. The yearly draft does not satisfy even the minimal needs of the army. Due to this, since 2011 sergeants and privates who have served their terms have not been discharged.
The draft fails due to a number of reasons. Some potential conscripts support the anti-government forces and actively dodge the draft. Others have joined the illegal armed groups. Still others have adopted a wait-and-see attitude, preferring not to fight for any of the sides. Many potential recruits have become refugees outside Syria, some of them in Europe. A large part of the population lives on territories outside the government troops’ control. Finally, recruits and their families fear reprisals from the militants.
The majority of Syrian army units are based at fortified checkpoints. There are in total about 2 thousand such checkpoints throughout Syria. Thus, over a half of the army operates with no connection to their units.
Sitting inside those fortified checkpoints, the Syrian regulars are mostly doing defensive duties and extorting money from the locals. They do not conduct any major operations to liberate population or administration centers.
Such pillars of any military as "A superior’s order is the law for his subordinate" and "An order is to be performed at all costs, precisely, timely and with no objections", are at best limitedly enforced in the Syrian army.
"Barrel" bombs
It is hard to find anything worthy of studying or imitation from the Syrian army’s military practice.
The only worthy examples are of the "How not to wage war" variety.
The Air Force deserves a special mention. The Syrian Arab Air Force conducts a significant number of sorties daily (reaching 100 in certain days in 2015), over 85% of which are bombing runs. The Air Force’s contribution to the overall fire damage is about 70%. The airstrikes are conducted by several dozen fighter/bomber jets and around 40 army aviation helicopters.
The SyAAF’s main modus operandi is solitary sorties. Flights in pairs and larger units are not done in order to save resources. In order to decrease losses, the bombing runs are done at heights of 3 thousand meters and above. In extreme cases, dive bombing is used.
Due to the lack of air ordnance, the Syrian army has until recently used even sea mines, torpedoes and depth charges for ground attacks. The so-called "barrel bombs" are also widely used. Over 10,000 of the latter have been dropped on the enemy.
A "barrel bomb" is a type of home-made air ordnance weighting 200 to 1000 kg. It is a section of a wide oil pipeline welded shut with metal plates from both sides and stuffed with a high amount of explosives. A "barrel bomb" is highly explosive and is used to destroy buildings and attack large gatherings of the militants.
There is no pilot training to replenish the combat losses (training in Russia has been discontinued). The aircraft are not being repaired (the only aircraft repair plant is inside the Aleppo warzone).
Various estimates put the air force’s losses since the start of the conflict (April 2011) at about 200 planes and over 150 pilots.
The tunnel war
Tunnel and anti-tunnel tactics have seen widespread use during the Syria war. Tunnels are used to blow up multi-storey buildings used as command posts or ammunition and materiel depots. Drilling machines can dig tunnels at a speed of 3-4m/day while improvised machinery can do 1-2m/day.
Underground tunnels and passages have been gun in Syria since the times of the Roman Empire and the founding of the first cities, such as Palmyra (Tadmor), Damascus, Raqqa and Homs. The local soil encourages this. Being rather soft and clayey, the soil does not slough, which is why both sides of the conflict toil endlessly to dig underground passages of all kinds and purposes.
Militants dig tunnels or use a wide network of old ones to achieve surprise during attacks on military facilities and government troops. Despite a severe underground threat, the Syrian army has a rather negligent attitude to this. There is almost no information on caves or underground communications in towns or militant-controlled territories adjacent to them.
However, various anti-tunnel techniques are used to protect government troops and important facilities, such as using georadars (anomaly detectors), building counter-tunnels, digging shafts and building anti-tunnel moats.
The main technique government troops employs against enemy tunnels is drilling shafts.
Continued.....
Militants’ morale and tactical advantage
Continued.....
Time to go home
Continue.....
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-09-2016 at 04:58 PM.
ABOUT the author
Mikhail Khodarenok is Gazeta.ru’s military observer, a retired colonel.
Graduated from Minks’s Higher Engineer Air Defense College in 1976, from the Air Defense Command Academy in 1986.
Commanded an anti-air missile battalion of S-75s in 1980-1983.
Was deputy commander of an anti-air missile regiment in 1986-1992.
Was a senior officer in the Air Defense HQ in 1988-1992.
Served in the Main Operative Directorate of the General Staff in 1992-2000.
Graduated from the General Staff Military Academy in 1998.
Worked as an observer in Nezavisimaya Gazeta in 2000-2003 and as editor-in-chief of "Military-Industrial Courier" in 2010-2015.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-09-2016 at 04:59 PM.
Former US Syrian Ambassador
@fordrs58:
"Bombing Nusra w. the Russians will *not* solve the conflict.. Neither will bombing #ISIS."
@fordrs58:
#Moscow is not supportive of many of #Assad regime's problematic behaviors. Their Amb in #Damascus struggling in his role.
.@fordrs58: Most optimistic outcome for Syria would be ceasefire leading to de facto partition; won't hold w/o a monitoring mechanism
.@fordrs58: More than military; Syria is a problem of deeper expectations among youth who want economic opportunity, gov't accountability
.@fordrs58: Russian analysis is that Syria is mainly a military problem; Would only tweak gov't rather than deep reform US thinks is needed
.@hbarkey: There is a Turkish strategy in Syria now, but it has nothing to do with Assad or ISIS. It's an all out fight against the Kurds.
.@hbarkey: US & Turkey's goals in Syria completely at odds. Split occurred after Kobani, which changed balance in Turkey btw State and Kurds
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-09-2016 at 05:54 PM.
Charles Lister Verified account
@Charles_Lister
Charles Lister Retweeted Charles Lister
This fits closely w. #Russia figures I’ve spoken with - one claimed only 6,000 truly capable #Syria soldiers remain:
Another commenter
This is really insightful. Talks about many things we hear from Hizb fighters in Syria, but with a lot more detals.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-09-2016 at 06:19 PM.
WikiLeaks hid Syrian deposits in Russian bank:
http://thebea.st/2cjwYsX
Major story: How Wikileaks hid a hacked Syria email showing a 2 billion euro transfer from Central Bank to... VTB:
http://trib.al/Q6HE1s7
Michael Weiss
✔ @michaeldweiss Now ask why the albinoid Bakunin of Knightsbridge didn't deem a major $ exchange btw Damascus and a Russian state bank newsworthy.
ANADOLU AGENCY (ENG)
✔ @anadoluagency Operation Euphrates Shield to continue: Turkish PM
http://v.aa.com.tr/643994
BREAKING: 3 Turkish soldiers killed, 1 wounded following ISIS attack on a TAF tank near Tell Hawa in northern Aleppo - @anadoluagency
Syria Rebels launch battle foreign Shiite militias at
Jabal al-Arbaain in southern #Aleppo
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...62027&z=14&m=b …
S. #Aleppo: Jebal Arbeen under Rebel artillery fire.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35....161942&z=12&m …
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-09-2016 at 06:39 PM.
Russian info warfare hard at work in the US via the 100% owned Russian propaganda outlet called Russia today.....
This former hard core leftie unionist use to be on MSNBC with his own show and then signed a multi million contract with Russian today and is now one of the heated supporters of Putin and the Russian annexation of Crimea.....and supports the Russian military intervention in Syria.... go figure.......
Ed Schultz
@NewswithEd
The media hysteria is amazing. CNN claims #DonaldTrump is 'unpatriotic' for doing an interview on @RT_America.
He forgets he is paid by the Russian govt to be on RT whose purpose is to undermine US while hiding Russia's repression.
APPEARS that this former leftie does not quite understand the Russian non linear warfare usage of information warfare.....
Russia trolls very busy today defending Trump, Putin, RT, GOP w/ characteristically intelligent arguments & hashtags
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-09-2016 at 06:51 PM.
The #NSyA repel #Daesh attack.
https://youtu.be/apOJxFaOUZA
From a former US Ambassador to Russia who speaks fluent Russian.....
Michael McFaul
✔ @McFaul For Americans working at RT and Sputnik, do you also "serve the (Russian) Fatherland" ? If not, explain. https://twitter.com/M_Simonyan/statu...07783332298752 …
Kerry announces US-Russia deal on Syrian ceasefire
(CNN)The US and Russia announced a plan Friday to bring about a ceasefire in Syria, Secretary of State John Kerry said.
"Today we are announcing an arrangement that we think has the capability of sticking but it's dependent on people's choices," Kerry said in Geneva.
Appearing alongside Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Kerry said the pact calls for the Syrian government and the opposition to respect a nationwide ceasefire scheduled to take effect at sundown on Monday.
He added that the accord will also prevent the air forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from flying combat missions anywhere that the opposition is present, calling this provision the "bedrock of the agreement," labeling Assad's air force the "main driver of civilian casualties" and migrant flows.
"That should put an end to the barrel bombs, an end to the indiscriminate bombing of civilian neighborhoods," Kerry said.
Kerry and Lavrov said that once the cessation of hostilities holds for seven days, the US and Russia would begin working on military coordination in an effort to target al Qaeda's affiliate in Syria, the al Nusra Front.
"Going after Nusra is not a concession to anybody, it is profoundly in the interest of the United States to target al Qaeda," Kerry said, saying the group was planning attacks both in and outside of Syria, including attacks directed at the US.
"If groups within the legitimate opposition want to retain their legitimacy, they need to distance themselves in every way possible from Nusra and Daesh," Kerry added.
Kerry said this cooperation would entail "some sharing of information," with Russia pertaining to the delineation of the various groups on the battlefield. After the seven-day cessation of hostilities and delivery of aid, "US and Russian experts will work together to defeat Daesh and Nusra," Kerry added.
Lavrov said that the Syrian regime had been informed of the terms of the arrangement and was prepared to adhere to them.
Kerry also said that the accord would allow for humanitarian access to the besieged areas of Syria, such as Aleppo, and provide for the creation of a demilitarized areas around that city.
Kerry reiterated several times that the deal was dependent on the adherence of all parties, both regime and opposition, and not built on trust.
"It is an opportunity and not more than that until it becomes a reality," Kerry said.
Months of effort
The landmark agreement comes after months of unsuccessful efforts to come to terms on a ceasefire between Assad's government and moderate rebels that would expand humanitarian access for hundreds of thousands of Syrians, efforts that were met by public skepticism from both the White House and the Pentagon.
The final announcement included some last-minute drama as the press conference announcing the deal was delayed several times. At one point, Lavrov emerged from negotiations to signal that the delay was due to officials in Washington who were holding up the accord's approval.
"We are there. I don't know where our friends are but I believe it is important for them to check with Washington. I apologize for the delay but we cannot help it," Lavrov told reporters who had assembled to hear the announcement.
He later appeared to mock the US delay saying, "It takes five hours for our friends to check with Washington," and telling reporters, "I am sorry for you."
While awaiting word from Washington a light-hearted moment occurred when the Russian minister orchestrated the delivery of pizzas and two bottles of Russian vodka to the waiting press, saying, "The pizza was from the US delegation, the vodka was from the Russian delegation."
Officials involved in the negotiations had been less than optimistic about a possible agreement in the days running up to the latest round of talks in Geneva, with one senior official traveling with Kerry saying, "We are going to try but our patience is not infinite."
"We are not going to keep going if we don't reach a conclusion relatively soon. We need to be moving very close to a deal and at some point we need to reach that deal," the official added.
Greater cooperation between US, Russia
The new US-Russia strategy hinges on deeper cooperation between the US and Russian military against extremist groups operating in Syria, particularly ISIS and Nusra Front. The two sides are also holding talks on coordinating more closely the air operations they are both conducting in Syria.
But the US has resisted coming to an agreement due to Russian and Syrian regime actions against civilians in Aleppo.
The US wants a nationwide ceasefire in Syria between the regime and the rebels in order to create the conditions for UN-led political talks to end the five-year war. The US-backed moderate opposition has refused to resume the UN-led talks unless a cessation of hostilities take hold and the regime and Russia end the siege and bombing of Aleppo.
"The opposition tells us they want to reach a deal with the Russians if in fact it would stop some of the worst forms of violence against the Syrian people," a second senior administration official said.
The UN Special Envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, appeared with Kerry and Lavrov after the announcement to signal the UN's backing of the new agreement.
Earlier Friday, he had said an agreement would make "a major difference" in terms of the cessation of hostilities and have "a major impact" on the delivery of humanitarian aid
But both President Barack Obama and Secretary of Defense Ash Carter have had tough words for Russia in recent days, dimming the prospect of a deal on a ceasefire and closer military cooperation. The US and Russia are both ostensibly fighting ISIS in Syria, but America has charged that Russia has mostly focused on bombing groups opposing Assad, a close Moscow ally. Some of those groups are supported by the US.
Obama has questioned whether a deal was possible given the "gaps of trust" between the two countries after meeting in China Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the G20.
The decision to deepen cooperation with Moscow was already controversial, given the Obama administration's public criticism of Russia's role in Syria. A cessation of hostilities negotiated between Kerry and Lavrov in February fell apart within weeks and efforts to reach a political settlement in the war-torn country are on the verge of collapse.
Asked by CNN's Wolf Blitzer Friday on "The Situation Room" if he trusted Russia in a deal like this, Democratic Rep. Adam Smith, the ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee, said no.
"I think it's good and I applaud Secretary Kerry because I think the effort needs to be made. The only way to stop the carnage in Syria is to get some sensible transition away from Assad and the Russians are key to that," Smith said. "I think in the meantime if we can get humanitarian aid to some of these places that are suffering, I mean that's a win, but at the end of the day, Syria will not make a successful transition to a reasonable government until Assad agrees to leave."
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/09/politi...rov/index.html
Azor......here is the problem.....Russia has absolutely no track record in holding much less maintaining any ceasefire they have so called approved either in eastern Ukraine and or Syria......
Secondly, the deep perception of the Syrian opposition is that JSF formerly JaN has died defending them not the US, Jordan or Russia
Thirdly, notice that agreement goes into effect on Monday...if the Russian were in fact serious it could have gone into effect at mid night Friday...BUT the Russian AF works on a 24/48 targeting cycle and the orders for this weekend have already been given AND the Assad mercenary Shia army still is attacking Aleppo...
Lastly, notice it does not mention that the ceasefire applies to the Iranian Shia mercenary forces.....
Notice also US/Russia talk about defeating one terrorist group called JFS BUT excludes defeating Hezbollah which the US has the last time I checked declared a terrorist organization just as they did with the Kurdish PKK.....
IF one really looks at this so called "deal" there is actually very little difference to the so called "deal" of Geneva 2.....especially the humanitarian aid comments WHICH never got delivered even after much hype by the UN, US and even Russia....
Notice also that the Russian side stated Assad would also adhere...well they said the same thing during Geneva 2...BUT within hours after the so called Geneva CoH Assad stated within hours to bomb...followed by the Russians two days later...ALL blaming the JaN....
MORE importantly.....both eastern Ukraine and Syria are part and parcel of the Russian non linear warfare as the key driver behind their political warfare aimed directly at the US and EU.....
Many following the two events tend to seriously overlook this and do not see the intertwining of the two...BUT it s there for all to see....AND Kerry and Obama just do not "get it".....
BTW...NOTICE that Kerry mentioned stopping the Assad AF from bombing civilians....BUT WAIT the Russian AF has been just as brutal when it comes to deliberately targeting civilians...NOT mentioned at all in the so called agreement....
Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-10-2016 at 10:07 AM.
Azor...I have not mentioned it recently but go back a year or two on the Ukrainian thread and you will see I kept mentioning the Putin concept of a "new Yalta 2"---Putin has never come off of that ...BTW he tried not so subtly to start the discussions in the recent G20 and got nowhere....
Both he and his FM have never come off of the idea of an economic and political zone reaching from Portugal to the Russian Far East.....naturally all under the concept of a Russian zone of influence....both started this debate in 2007 right after Georgia....
This geo political goal has three parts.
1. disconnect the US totally from Europe and ME
2. discredit and damage NATO
3. discredit and damage EU
BTW this article tends to go in the direction of what some call "Russian soft power"...there was an article recently on SWJ on just that topic where the author did not seem to accept the current concept of "Russian soft power" which is really the two core legs of non linear warfare, 1) cyber warfare, 2) info warfare both supported by literally tons of cash.....the budget for next year alone on their info warfare side is 800M USDs...down a tad from over 1B USD used this year.
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/09/0...ess/#arvlbdata
Putin’s hybrid war objective is to capture effective control, Sazonov says
Azor...now go back and see exactly how Russia is in fact directly meddling in the coming US elections and who as journalists work for his Russia Today.....Many in the West have failed to see that “the main goal” of hybrid war is to change not the rules that govern conflict but rather state borders, “and not necessarily those on the map” but those of effective control by the state, according to Kyrylo Sazonov.
Indeed, the Ukrainian analyst suggests the enormous attention many have paid to the ways in which Putin has changed the rules of conducting war has distracted attention from the Kremlin leader’s use of it to change the borders of control.
When this is understood, Sazonov says, it becomes clear that “Russia’s aggression in Ukraine” is a war against the West more generally. If Russia wins in Ukraine, then it will move on to others and it will involve real victims. Today, “Warsaw and Krakow are not Donetsk and Luhansk,” but tomorrow they could be, if Russia’s hybrid war is not stopped.
Tragically, many will not understand this is happening even as it does, he continues, because
“at first hybrid war creates not an alternative reality or new borders but an alternative picture. Formally, there is no war and no military aggression. There are only internal conflicts, political struggles, a crisis in administration and cases of armed resistance.”
At first, “there is no aggression or aggressor; there are only concerned neighbors and freedom of speech and conscience and an effort by the bureaucracy to bring the rules of the game into correspondence with the real situation.” But the bureaucracy will fail because “it is too conservative and thus becomes the unwitting ally of a creative aggressor with new instruments.”
Over time, the problems Ukraine faces now will be the problems Europe and the West will face in the future. As long as Moscow has to fight in Ukraine, “everything will be well” in the West. But if Ukraine fails, then “the problem will become yours,” with millions of refugees flowing out of that country into Europe.
That is how hybrid war is conducted, and today “Russia is carrying out its hybrid war not against Ukraine but against the EU and the US, that is, against the democratic world as a whole. This is really a conflict of worldviews and scenarios of social development,” one that Russia has launched because it has “lost the economic competition.”
Since it can’t use economic means to project power and since overt war would produce an immediate reaction, Russia under Putin has chosen “other methods” including bribery, subversion, manipulation, and exploitation of ethnic and religious differences, having exacerbated them by promoting migration.
The Kremlin is able to do this because “the contemporary world [is] tied together by thousands of threads of horizontal connections” and thus “hybrid war concerns everyone.” The aggressor, in this case Russia, wants to live no worse than others or more precisely wants to ensure that no one lives better than it does.
Its “goal is the creation of a zone of instability and threats large enough to force the West to agree to negotiations and concessions, serious concessions, such as the recognition of Russia’s right to dictate the rules of life for countries which in the Kremlin are considered part of its zone of influence.”
If it achieves that, Moscow will demand even more, including being treated as “an equal or senior partner” in negotiations about the entire world.” Of course, it will sometimes make tactical concessions itself but these will be only tactical and temporary. They will not change the strategy.
“Its experience of such operations from Soviet times is enormous,” Sazonov says; “but now the Russian Federation has made a serious step from local operations to a long-term project that is unified in the single scenario” of hybrid war. Having chosen dictatorship and reliance on raw materials alone, Moscow sees no other alternative.
Sazonov says that Russia’s worldwide hybrid war involves the following elements:
•propaganda,
•“the creation of internal conflicts with the help of its own agents of influence,”
•terror both via the support of internal groups and the introduction of outsiders,
•economic pressure by weakening the economies of target states,
•political pressure by isolating its targets one way or another,
•the creation of conflicts that Moscow can use to justify intervention.
Moscow views ethnic and religious divisions as the most useful because “one can support them for a very long time with the least expenditure of resources.” Moreover, its support for this or that group can be presented to the naïve as part of “a struggle for peace and the resolution of conflicts,” even those it has “artificially created on its own.”
Moscow doesn’t need a powerful technologically developed army. It does need forces to insert near the end, “but the key tasks are fulfilled by intelligence services, diversionists, recruited agents of influence and media under its control.” And it can count on recruiting those politicians who might without such outside support have no chance of gaining power.
Faced with this general threat of Putin’s hybrid war, what should Western countries do? The best thing is not to have or to eliminate those weak places that Moscow may exploit. That means, Sazonov says, that “the aggressor — even a potential one– must be deprived of the smallest chance of financing political parties, social organization and media.”
Moreover, the West must recognize that it faces a common threat and meet it with a united front against what the Kremlin is trying to do. And it must understand that helping those countries like Ukraine which are now on the front line is “not charity but an investment” in the defense of the West.
“If we together do not stop the Kremlin in Ukraine, Sazonov concludes, “[the West without Ukraine] will have to stop it in Poland, in Lithuania, and everywhere” when Russia orchestrates a new refugee flow into Europe and when the enemy will truly and traditionally be “at the border.”
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-10-2016 at 06:20 AM.
AND the fighting/bombing still goes on.....
Jaish al Islam capture a pro-regime fighter/SAA on Madani front.
https://youtu.be/5z0C5LZdhcs
JFS @JFS_Eng
#JFS seize several military positions on Petra Mountains axis East Qalamoon + elimination of entire group of khawarij.
Aftermath of an airstrike on a civilian neighborhood in the city of #Douma.
https://youtu.be/KgNn2mETj80
Step news takes footage of the alleged bomb sight where JaF leaders were meeting.
https://youtu.be/gYzXccqWEwA
First Coastal Defense targeting regime forces in Latakia earlier today with artillery.
https://youtu.be/cp8jmWjhNF4
Free Nua Brigade targeting regime forces trying to advance on the abandoned artillery base in #Daraa
https://youtu.be/jgB-KgamQdQ
KEY problem with this agreement is the simple fact that Russia will eventually get Kerry to agree to what they define a "terrorist group" to be and there is no secret that Russia wants to expand the current UN list to include all groups backed by Turkey and KSA....especially AAS....
Ahrar Al sham sends condolence to JFS and says the coalition has sided with the regime and Shiite militias
JFS + Ahrar hold the U.S-lead coalition responsible for the murder of Abu Omar Saraqib. Their intentions for #Aleppo are clear.
Syria "peace" deal is just kicking the can down the road. Allowing regime to target "terrorists" means business as usual
One thing is for sure though, Assad hasn't won with this deal. Any attempt to take Aleppo will rule "deal" null & void. Iran won't be happy
Actually this US article kind of sums up what I have been saying....
Will the U.S.-Russia Deal Bring Syria Peace? Don’t Hold Your Breath
http://thebea.st/2cMpZv3
via @thedailybeast
Further summed up by a very good Syrian SME who I follow a lot....
Charles Lister @Charles_Lister
Initial [under-stated] reaction from a senior Ahrar al-Sham figure on the US-#Russia deal on #Syria:
“Difficult… Very unrealistic."
Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-10-2016 at 10:08 AM.
Five years on, another ten years to go?
Jeremy Bowen, a veteran BBC reporter on the Syrian civil war ponders what the future holds. The title comes from this:Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37315875A Syrian general at the ministry of defence told me they were well aware that the war in Lebanon a generation ago had lasted 16 years. This one, he said, was much more complicated so there could be at least another 10 years of bloodshed.
How he came to this view I think will elude closer observers:A map is always useful:The Syrian army is remarkably cohesive for a force that is in the sixth year of war. But it does not have the manpower to sustain operations on a range of fronts.
davidbfpo
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