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Thread: Syria in 2016 (July-September)

  1. #2641
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    Man those Iranian "moderates" are really enamored with Obama after the "Iran Deal"......


    "Moderate" Iranian president Rouhani rejects John Kerry's request for Assad's and Russian jets to be grounded in some parts of #Syria

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    WHY am I not really surprised by this??

    1. the US intel community did not see the Russian annexation of Crimea coming at all

    2. the US intel community did not see the actual Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine building up and then crossing into Ukraine....

    ALL initial intel information was delivered sadly by social media opne source analysts.....

    3. the US intel community did not see Russian military expansion into Syria coming from a mile away.......

    If true...then really a sad state of affairs inside the current Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH........

    AP: Acco 2 offic in d metg Kerry was informed of Syria's army new ope in Aleppo when his chief of stf showed him a headline on BlackBerry 1

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    I do now think that the DoS Kerry is along with Obama and Rhodes in there own "altered state of reality".....or as he accused Lavrov of being in a "parallel universe".....

    DID he honesty think the Russians would listen to him????

    AFP: Kerry said Lavrov had not been able to promise to ground Syria's bombers and to halt the bombardment of its cities.

    Russia has never held to any ceasefires whether in eastern Ukraine and or in Syria......so what the heck is Kerry thinking????

    IMHO Kerry is a total embarrassment to the Department of State either that or he is delusional right about now...it is now painful to watch or listen to him......

    WHEN will he and Obama finally learn that when all diplomatic attempts truly fail and these have failed since 2012....one must use leverage to regain the initiative.......in this case a NZF over specific areas and a total ground of all Assad jets and helicopters.....EVEN if that means the use of force.....

    BUT WAIT....yesterday the JCoS Mullen "claimed we cannot provide a NFZ over all of Syria without clashing with the Russia AF.....BUT no one stated a complete NFZ....NOW DoD is providing a smokescreen for both Kerry and Obama......

    Kerry on Syria: "it’s clear we cannot continue on same path". Schedules another meeting with Lavrov on Friday.


    BUT WAIT...did not Kerry repeatedly state he had a PLAN B.....?????
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-23-2016 at 06:30 AM.

  4. #2644
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    Russian Syrian Express....

    Russian Navy's brand new seagoing self-propelled floating crane SPK-46150 in tow, northbound on the Bosphorus. Kurtarma 1&3 joined Norsund.

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    Confirmed : Russian Bomb Remains Recovered from Syrian Red Crescent Aid Convoy Attack via @bellingcat
    https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena...onvoy-attack/#


    ANOTHER solid social media open source analysis of the Russian attack on the UN/SRC aid convoy......
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    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-23-2016 at 06:53 AM.

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    Assad lies as much as Lavrov and Kerry these days and the western MSM does not call it out as they do not for Kerry and Lavrov...WHY is that?????

    NOTICE.....the Panama Papers pointed out the corruption around Assad and yet not much was found about in the MSM........
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    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-23-2016 at 06:39 AM.

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    Russian terror blitz across Aleppo again today. Zibdiyeh, Ansari, Mashhad, Muwasalat & old Aleppo all hit.

    Intense Russian/Assad airstrikes/barrel bombs targeted Qaterji, Maysar, Karam al-Tahan, Ansari, Sakhour, Marjeh & Handarat this AM

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    Unfortunate reports that Russian airstrikes targeted White Helmets @SyriaCivilDef centres in Sakhour & Ansari districts in #Aleppo this AM

    When bombs explode in #Syria, the White Helmets are the brave 1st responders on the scene. Honored to meet their leader & #Aleppo activists.

    Someone tell this hypocrite that 2 @SyriaCivilDef centres in #Aleppo were bombed by Russia this morning

    This guy is shameless beyond...
    Enables Russia to drop the very same cluster & thermite bombs he is talking about.
    And pretends all fine.


    REMEMBER this is the same Kerry and Obama WH that said ABSOLUTELY nothing when the Director of the SCD was taken off a DC flight by Homeland Security and then immediately forced to leave the US EVEN with a valid US embassy issued visa...he was to receive a honor award for the work the SCD is doing in Syria....

    BECAUSE they had received twitter complaints from proAssad/Russian commenters he was AQ....ALL of these complaints WERE never investigated by DHS......

    NOTICE Kerry does not apologize for that incident does he......???

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    Aleppo Remains of ShOAB-0.5 bomblets used in Russian airstrikes today on the electricity district in Khan al-Asal
    https://youtu.be/GHlS5aU6RIk

    Reports of Russian/Assad airstrikes with incendiary munitions targeting Daret Izza, west rural #Aleppo, #Syria

    Syria Rebels took barrier on road btw #Homs & #Salamiyah

    Syria #Assad-regime announce battle to "liberate" E-#Aleppo
    (with mercenary-army from #Russia, #Iran, #Iraq, #Afghanistan #Lebanon...)


    Syria Drink water facility in eastern #Aleppo out of service after targeted by airstrikes (not for the first time)
    AssadPutin air strikes on civilians and one of two remaining water plants right now.
    2 civilians killed, 10 injured, water cut off.

    Syria Fatah al Sham #JFS versus #IslamicState in eastern #Qalamoun
    https://youtu.be/frdQZVKhW-A
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-23-2016 at 06:55 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    CrowBat.....I keep going back to the two comments that came out shortly after the strike alluding to seven killed Russian Spetsnaz including a senior Spetsnaz Commander....

    That would explain why the entire MoD, and Lavrov totally flipped out even for Russian standards......

    After compiling most of the flowing comments starting at the first one just minutes after the alleged attack the first comment came on the Spetsnaz repeated ten minutes later and then silence since then.

    What is critical and it is strange but actually IS claimed just a little after that the Spetsnaz comment that it was themselves that had been hit by the US...now whatever we think of IS they tend to not fudge on their posted comments from that area

    Then followed by a comment from the Palestinian militia that they had lost troops..then they announced the names and since then totally quiet....one would have anticipated al least those names showing up for US payments.....

    This whole incident smells of a Russia self inflicted friendly fire and there have been plenty on the Russia side since they arrived.....
    IMHO & AFAIK: there is absolutely no point in even considering any of claims that the 'USA have hit regime troops inside the Dayr az-Zawr pocket'.

    Reason: that would amount to 'USA attempting to provide CAS to Assad's troops'.

    No doubt, the Pentagon is plain dumb in regards of Syria. But, it's not that dumb. They are bombing the Daesh all over the Dayr az-Zawr Governorate since months, that's sure (and can be easily tracked with help of summaries posted daily on airwars.org). BUT, they are all the time bombing local supply lines of the Daesh: they never bombed anything inside the regime-held pocket, or close to its frontlines. There's no reason for this to change now.

    As next, it turned out that instead of '2 USAF A-10s, 2 F-16s & an UAV' reported by Russians, there were Danish F-16s supported by a RAAF E-7 around. Let's add a CIA or USAF UAV to that: one can never be sure, except that these are 'always around' in such cases. (EDIT: it turns out British say they had one of their Reapers there).

    Danish contingent deployed 'in the Middle East' has two lawyers 'embedded', plus special software showing 'predicted schrapnel impact zone' to their pilots integrated into their LANTRIN etc. They can only be described as 'overcautious' in their operations: nothing is released there without 10-fold confirmation and re-confirmation.

    So, why would they and now and all of a sudden come to the idea to go bombing Daesh frontlines around the Dayr az-Zawr pocket, please?

    And: how could two F-16s armed with a total of 8 SDBs or GBU-32s cause such a massive loss of life for Assadists - i.e. PFLP-GC's militias and Hezbollah...as claimed by Russians and Assadist regime (renowned foremost for lying all the time: in this case they cannot even provide lists of their supposed KIA) - while bombing (citate from official CENTCOM release) 'Near Dayr Az Zawr, one strike damaged five ISIL supply routes'...?

    Even if we add the French - who were active over the Dayr az-Zawr Governorate in the last few days too (though, apparently, not on 16 September) - things are changing only minimally. Each of their Mirage 2000s is carrying only two PGMs.

    The only logical answer is that there's absolutely no point in doing that.

    Who was there - and then a lot - though, were Russians: the VKS flew a number of air strikes against the Daesh on Dayr az-Zawr frontlines during that quasi-cease-fire in Aleppo, the last week. And Russians have not only hit Assadists repeatedly (usually causing massive losses, like in northern Homs, back in November last year, or in as-Safira, in February this year), but foremost: if Russians are bombing anything in that part of Syria, then either with Su-34s or Tu-22s, both of which are applying de-facto carpet-bombing with dumb bombs (usually different variants of FAB-250s).
    Last edited by CrowBat; 09-23-2016 at 07:03 AM.

  11. #2651
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    Putin's war against the Syrian people..in the name of Assad ....... Aleppo city this morning ..some would declare what Assad and Putin are doing is "genocide" ALL would except the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH......for some strange reason that single word is not in their diplomatic vocabulary...why is that????

    Kerry just keeps on talking as if talking is going to "win".....WHEN will he finally admit he and Obama have made a serious mess of the ME all in the name of fully tilting to Iran and Russia????
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  12. #2652
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    Default A frank Russian view on the Syrian War

    Moderator adds

    Hat tip to Crowbat for this Russian article, which was in the main Syrian War thread. This new thread is for the article to get a higher profile (ends).


    Here an article in Russian, by Col Mikhail Mikhailovich Hodarenok (ret.), former staff officer of the V-PVO, titled, Why Russia did not succeed in Syria after one year of involvement

    The following is my rough translation. My Russian is far away from being perfect, and I admit: I tend to translate 'by sense', not 'literally'. So I apologize in advance if there are any mistakes.

    Anyway, this article is particularly interesting for
    Almost a year ago (30.09.15) Russia has started a military operation in Syria. Despite the external support Bashar al-Assad army did not manage to achieve any significant success: 60-70% of the country is still controlled by the militants, population and even the army have to pay bribes to special forces and so on. It is impossible to win this war without a serious political decision.
    ...

    Currently the majority of Russian troops went back home. Basically there is just one aviation group on Khmeimim. There is information that Kremlin decided to lower the cost of the whole operation: they try to save bombs and the aviation fuel. There are rumors that Russia is buying some bombs in Belarus as well where there is still plenty of bombs left after the USSR collapse.

    Speaking about the amount of Russian involvement in Syria, currently there is around 4500 Russians there. The amount of people who voted (18.09.16) in the military base is 4378.
    ...
    This figure is something I have strong doubts about, but that's the only 'firm' figure available, based on this report about the number of Russian votes in Syria.

    The first 6 months of the campaign was a relative success. Russian army performed effective strikes and Syrian army was able to advance well and liberate some of the Syrian areas. However during the second 6 months no significant advance occurs as well as Syrian army had to pull back in some areas.

    Today around 60-70% (it is difficult to tell the exact numbers) of Syrian territory is occupied by militants and the opposition. Almost the whole East of Syria, significant parts of Aleppo, whole Idlib, significant parts of Homs, the territory around Deir ez-Zor, Eastern Ghouta in the South of Damask, Zabadani close to the border with Lebanon and other places are controlled by them.

    Aleppo terrorists constantly get supplies from Turkey, it includes militants, arms, military supplies and vehicles. In Idlib the Syrian-Turkish border is completely opened.
    This is something no 'sane Putler-fan' would ever admit. Therefore, it's almost startling to 'hear' it from even a retired Russian military officer.

    Further Syrian army success does not look good. The quality of army management is the most important question today.

    Since 2004 Syrian army fired a lot of officers and generals who got their education in USSR and Russia.

    There are almost no Russian-speaking officers in Syrian army today. Officers who got their education in Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the West were preferred. They were the main core of Syrian army.
    Well, it wasn't me who was claiming 'that's our land', and swearing about 'never-ending, ages-old, Syrian-Russian friendship', and 'protection of massive Russian investments in Syria' - but certain Russian parliamentaries.

    Obviously, when things turn out to be different than all the Russian prejudice and supposition dictated, the blow comes quite low...

    Anyway: where were what of Assad's officers trained is actually irrelevant. If nothing else, the experience from earlier wars (with Israel, for example) has shown that if they were trained in 'Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the West' one could expect them to perform far better than if trained in Russia/ex-USSR.

    What is relevant is that the officers in question were not selected by their skills and merits, but their loyalty to the regime, and that the 'training abroad' was usually considered 'paid vacation' by most of them.

    Little wonder then, if they do not perform as one might expect.

    On the other hand, the really interesting aspect of this is: Russians are shocked, then they have no and can't exercise any influence, because people they should advise in Syria have been trained somewhere else.

    A lot of Syrian generals and officers left Syrian army and joined the opposition as a result. They were not the worst part of Syrian army however. Today Syrian army suffers from corruption, intrigues, informal agreements, exchanges of services, connections and so on. Good and brave officers have no chance to get a promotion without connections.

    All Russian military advisers left Syria. There are no Russian advisers in Syrian central army apparatus, nor anywhere in the army or staff. This is the main reason why there is no basic communication between Russian and Syrian military personnel. It causes non-compliance in actions, absence of cooperation and mutual mistrust. Both Russia and Syria suspect each other in information leaks and even betrayal.

    There must be a coalition army for a much effective military actions. A united staff must be formed, and a united coalition commander with must be assigned, who will be personally responsible for the campaign.

    It it desirable that such commander's rank is a deputy defense minister of Russia at least. He should not be in Khmeimim with his staff, but in Damask. He must be appointed there not for 3 months or so, but until the victory.

    In this case only it is possible to talk about some adequate forces administration. Yet it is not implemented and it is unknown whether it will ever be.

    In fact, Russia has already some good experience in creating a coalition army during the trainings. Since 2005 Russia is participating in joint "Peaceful mission" training within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The training deals with joint coalition forming and administration with different countries being involved. This experience could be used in Syria.

    The coalition commander should have a strong reserve forces (in fact currently Syria has no reserve forces).

    The best option for such reserve would be 10 thousand Ramzan Kadyrov soldiers that could form a brigade. Just the usage of such brigade would drastically change the situation on favor of Syrian army.

    If Syria and Russia are allies, they should discuss together all the major changes in Syrian staff. Assad supporters could become angry since it might look like the Syrian sovereignty collapse, yet they are free to analyze how soon Syrian army will lose the war without such close cooperation.
    That's a 'rough translation', but let me add 'actual translation' of this: Russia is NOT in control of anything there, and he thinks that's the actual problem.

    Syrian army has no centralized supplies. Everything is decided by the army commanders. They get the money and decide what supplies they are going to buy. These commanders are the richest people in Syrian army. Central staff has no influence over their decisions regarding supplies. This is the reason why Assad army is so poorly supplied. Syrian young people leave the country from the conscription. There is a minimum help for the family members of dead or wounded solders. Such families are extremely poor.

    Soldiers and officers are not motivated to fight.

    The military college was left by Syrian army when just a few militants (8-11 people) entered it during the Aleppo battle. They left a lot of supplies and food there. Russian aviation had to destroy the object later.

    This is the most common picture: RuAF completes the strikes yet the Assad soldiers do not advance. They advance for around 60 meters and then go back. They rarely aim when shoot.

    Syrian army was advancing from Palmyra to Deir ez-Zor for 1.5 months, it was just 7 kilometers towards their destination. Yet they left it all in just one day. One of the high ranked staff officials came, spoke to his local army, and then they run away (this part looks strange even in Russian).

    Sometimes just one bearded militant could scare Syrian army a lot and they would run away.

    Assad artillery is also very bad. They could hit the target directly, or half-directly. They don't know how to hit a target from a closed position (indirectly).
    Hear, hear...

    In essence, this is a confirmation for the fact that there is no SAA. If there would be one, there would be a centralized system of supplies.

    ...to be continued....
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 09-23-2016 at 10:13 AM. Reason: Add Mods Note

  13. #2653
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    Part 2:

    Syrian army has no general strategic line. They command tactically on separate directions.

    This is the style of Ali Aslan, who was the chief of staff of the Syrian Army, and now he is the closest Bashar al-Assad military adviser.

    During the 6-day war in 1967 he was a platoon commander, and it looks like he is still on the same level. He does not know what a strategy is, nor everyone who passed through his training knows anything about it. There is no success everywhere Ali Aslan and his commanders are present.

    Syrian army has no reserves. At the same time they are forming volunteer brigades. They could have formed a powerful reserve and concentrate it in the right place in the right time. Yet these volunteers are spread across the country and change nothing in this war.
    Well, it's hard to form reserves, when 'army' consists of sectarian militias, each of which is run by a different clan for the purpose of protecting its own fiefdom.

    There are shootings every night in the capital of Syria. They occur almost exactly at the same time each day, at around 22.00 (11 AM). Militants are in the suburbs of Damask yet no one is doing anything about them.

    It looks like this tension in the capital of Syria is good for both sides.

    Assad's traveling in Damask and in Syria is limited for his safety. Only the most trusted people could personally meet Assad.

    A good question comes into the mind: does Assad actually know what is happening in his country? Does he have independent sources of information that allow for a full understanding of the situation in his country? By the way, Syrian leaders deny the fact that they have a civil war. They think it is an internal military conflict with the elements of external intervention. Despite these full scale military actions there is still no martial law introduced.

    A huge amount if intelligence forces (mukhābarāt) make the situation even worse. There are four kinds of it: national, military, air and political. There is also the National bureau of security.

    The corruption in Syrian intelligence forces is awful. They force the whole population and army to pay an enormous amounts of bribes.

    You have to pay when traveling through Syria at each checkpoint. Even a truck loaded with food could only cross the checkpoint for money. A similar situation is happening with refugees. Syrian intelligence forces could take a random person from the crowd and take all the money. The person then is detained. In order to free such person you would have to pay around 200.000 liras per person. This is a huge amount of money by Syrian standards.

    It is impossible to apply European approach in multi-ethnic and multi-confessional Syria. You have to consider the local way of thinking. For example Syria has a lot of Christians, there is around 2 million of them. However they are not willing to fight for Assad. They used to be a social outcast in Syria, heavily underrepresented at all government levels. Hence they are not willing to fight for Assad since they do not know what to expect from him in the future. They could be used to form a few brigades 10.000 people each, and they could be brave warriors too.

    No one is cooperating with Syrian Turkmen. They are good warriors as well, yet they fight for the opposition mostly. They could have fought for Assad if they knew what they are fighting for exactly. Even the ones who are fighting for the opposition could have switched to the pro-government forces. Yet no one is working with them. Syrian intelligence forces also play a bad role here, they just steal these people and you never see them again.

    The relatives would only get a note afterwards, saying that "your son died in prison". The government is making a lot of enemies for themselves.

    Current situation in Syria is a dead end. There is no military solution for the situation. While Americans and the opposition are working on the new constitution, Assad is doing nothing.
    Think Mr. Hodarenok should've offered his article for publishing to one of leading papers in Tehran: the people there are convinced the war is very much winnable...

    EDIT: alternatively, it should become 'recommended reading' for every Tom, Dick and Harry in the Pentagon. I know, chances are next to non-existing. But, it still might point them at all the opportunities they failed to grab.

  14. #2654
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    WHY am I not really surprised by this??

    1. the US intel community did not see the Russian annexation of Crimea coming at all

    2. the US intel community did not see the actual Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine building up and then crossing into Ukraine....

    ALL initial intel information was delivered sadly by social media opne source analysts.....

    3. the US intel community did not see Russian military expansion into Syria coming from a mile away.......

    If true...then really a sad state of affairs inside the current Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH........

    AP: Acco 2 offic in d metg Kerry was informed of Syria's army new ope in Aleppo when his chief of stf showed him a headline on BlackBerry 1
    IF this again true which I believe it is....WHY did not Kerry pound on the table, stand up and declare this proves you Russia are not in the least interested in a political/diplomatic solution we the US are now going to PLAN B...we have given you amble time to prove your seriousness??????

    A furious Kerry then told the entire room, Lavrov included, that "even while we are meeting here, they are doing this," said the official 2

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    IF this again true which I believe it is....WHY did not Kerry pound on the table, stand up and declare this proves you Russia are not in the least interested in a political/diplomatic solution we the US are now going to PLAN B...we have given you amble time to prove your seriousness??????

    A furious Kerry then told the entire room, Lavrov included, that "even while we are meeting here, they are doing this," said the official 2
    Charles Lister ‏@Charles_Lister
    - #Syria’s Army launches major offensive in #Aleppo

    - US, #Russia & ISSG leave NY with no agreement

    - Still think current approach works?

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    Aleppo Media center reports that Russian warplanes have fired 15 rocket strikes on #Aleppo.

    Really awesome 360 video by SMART news agency " Aleppo through the eyes of its heroic citizens" following civil def
    https://youtu.be/6fN24Q8oK9o

    13 Division fighting IS in NE. #Aleppo during #Euphrates_shield
    https://youtu.be/W63H44IPKPc

    GoPro footage of a 13th Division technical gunner engaging IS in N. Aleppo countryside
    https://youtu.be/W63H44IPKPc

    Jabhat Ansar al-Deen 15 min video on lifting the siege of Aleppo uses IS nasheed multiple times
    https://youtu.be/9gNx0fPaPaE

    N. #Hama: Regime set up artillery on top of Kafraa Mount to support its counter-offensive in Maardas.
    http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35...98556&z=17&m#…

    SE. #Hama: Rebels took Al-Shakari checkpoint near Khunayfis & seized one BMP (SW of Salamiyah) via @el_sarkis. http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=34...550&z=12&m=b#…
    Not sure if only a raid and or physically taking it over.....

    N. #Latakia: Rebels thwarted multiple assaults in Jebal Turkman (Tufahiyah) & Jebal Akrad (#Kinsabba axis & Kabana).

    EuphratesShield: after a carbomb targeted #FSA near Azaz #ISIS is now shelling Al-Rai with heavy artillery.

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    It appears that the infamous Ahmad al-Nisafi, commander of the Iranian backed NDF militia in #Homs, was killed by rebels in #Hama yesterday


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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Assad lies as much as Lavrov and Kerry these days and the western MSM does not call it out as they do not for Kerry and Lavrov...WHY is that?????

    NOTICE.....the Panama Papers pointed out the corruption around Assad and yet not much was found about in the MSM........
    MORE Assad statements from his AP interview from 22 September that AP neither countered NOR then released fact checks.....AP in this case is acting like an official Assad propaganda media outlet......

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    #Syria 60+ airstrikes conducted by #Russia & #Assad on #Aleppo city since morning
    2 rescue service HQs also hit

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    WONDER what great verbal statements will come out of the fully titled Iran/Russian WH this morning when they awake to the new Russian Aleppo bombing campaign.....????

    BTW...as a little assistance for Kerry currently ALL bombing strikes on Aleppo ARE being carried out by the Russians NOT Assad.....

    ESPECIALLY After Kerry praised the SCD yesterday....BUT WAIT it just was for a legacy photo op

    Khaled Khatib @995Khaled
    Al Assad forces deliberately targeted 3 @SyriaCivilDef centres in Aleppo city just this morning. 2 of them are put out of service.


    BY THE WAY THIS RUSSIAN AIR STRIKE DESTROYED THE REMAINING SCD AMBULANCES IN ALEPPO....WONDER WHAT THE OBAMA/KERRY RESPONSE WILL BE.....PROBBALY JUST MORE TALKING.....
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    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 09-23-2016 at 08:13 AM.

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