I think this is one of those questions where we tend to believe what we want to believe and ignore evidence that does not confirm what we want to believe.

There is a strong desire to believe, for instance, that the insurgents are a hodge-podge of foreign influences and therefore more credance tends to be given to the reports that confirm that belief and less to others. Since it seems to be a universal malady of human beings to believe what they want, we ought to be very careful to consider if we are giving in to that tendency. And it behoves us to consider what anybody else might "wish" to be true in this case. Add to that the desire of some to report what they think their boss or their political benefactor "wishes" and you have the formula for a lot of noise with little substance.

For that reason, I'm always a little hesitant to trust anyone who says they "know" who the insurgents are.