The first thought that springs to everyone's mind is that this is Iran's highest strategic and political thinkers' cunningly calculated plan to flex their muscles, deter the West and gain even more political power in the Muslim world. Of course, if that's the analysis being presented on CNN it's quite likely to be wrong.

Actually, this is almost certainly an accident. Think about the tactical challenge of grabbing 15 sailors without killing them. As the Iranian commander, how could you be 100% sure that none of the British would start shooting? How can you be sure they won't manage to sink their zodiac trying to get away from you and maybe drown a couple guys? Negotiating over prisoners is one thing - but if anyone had died this situation would be about ten times worse. That's one reason a deliberate capture seems unlikely.

They also have no reason to attempt such a risky operation.

-If they wanted to flex their muscles all they have to do is send a shipload of weaponry to Hezbollah or Hamas. That may not seem like much, but it's guaranteed to get noticed by the US government - which is the real outside player in the region.

-If they wanted British bargaining chips they could let their buddies in southern Iraq do it without attribution. No chance of retaliation.

-If they wanted to force Britain to back away from nuclear sanctions they know this is the worst way to do it. Anything that the UK offers Iran now only looks like caving in.

The simpler explanation is that either the British or the Iranians were wrong on where an international boundary was in relation to their boats. Given the narrow confines of those waters, and the fact that the Iranian navy probably doesn't use a whole lot of GPS, and the very real possibility that the Brits didn't check their GPS, it's much more likely that folks just got confused.

Moreover, neither side is acting like they were well prepared for this. The Brits would've reacted better had this been some deliberate incursion into Iranian waters. As it is, their cover story appears to be "we so weren't in Iranian waters". The Iranians probably didn't realize what was going on for a while, either - it's not every day those coastal patrol guys come up with anything more interesting than somebody's yacht drifted out of position.

This is a political problem that will get hashed out after some posturing by both sides. It'll take a little time because neither side was prepared for it. Both sides will try to take advantage of the situation and it's possible both sides will win. Tony Blair could get some much needed political support at home if he handles this well and the Iranians could come off looking both powerful and magnanimous for seizing the sailors and then releasing them. I believe the sailors will ultimately be released without harm - anything else is far too costly for Iran.