Iran captures British sailors

[goesh]

From the AP: 3/27:

"DUBAI, United Arab Emirates - The U.S. Navy on Tuesday began its largest demonstration of force in the Persian Gulf since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, led by a pair of aircraft carriers and backed by warplanes flying simulated attack maneuvers off the coast of Iran.

The maneuvers bring together two strike groups of U.S. warships and more than 100 U.S. warplanes to conduct simulated air warfare in the crowded Gulf shipping lanes.

The U.S. exercises come just four days after Iran’s capture of 15 British sailors and marines who Iran said had strayed into Iranian waters near the Gulf. Britain and the U.S. Navy have insisted the British sailors were operating in Iraqi waters."

What the Navy needs is to institute the old concept of the press gang and press crews of burnt out old grunts like myself into service with shotguns and molotovs in hopped up cigar boats disguised as fishing sloops. Let us hoist the stars and bars when we make contact and engage the small craft of the iranian revolutionary guard naval forces. If you're going to have an international incident, it's best to do it the old fashioned way.

I doubt the Brits knew what was happening until they were on them, drawn down on them. My .02 worth says the iranians would have opened fired on them had they fled.

[John T. Fishel]

Jolly Roger works for me! Where can I sign up? But, I'd really like to mount a minigun...

I supect you are right about the RIBs. But my question about Cornwall still holds.

[wm]

From the AP: 3/27:

"DUBAI, United Arab Emirates - The U.S. Navy on Tuesday began its largest demonstration of force in the Persian Gulf since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, led by a pair of aircraft carriers and backed by warplanes flying simulated attack maneuvers off the coast of Iran.

The maneuvers bring together two strike groups of U.S. warships and more than 100 U.S. warplanes to conduct simulated air warfare in the crowded Gulf shipping lanes.

The U.S. exercises come just four days after Iran’s capture of 15 British sailors and marines who Iran said had strayed into Iranian waters near the Gulf. Britain and the U.S. Navy have insisted the British sailors were operating in Iraqi waters."

Hostage taking is an old standby for trying to enforce certain behaviors by other states. This may be a chicken and egg question, but it may also just be a game of chicken.
1. Did the Iranian government, knowing about the impending US naval "exercise," take a few hostages to ensure that the exercise does not become a "live fire exercise" against Iran? The 15 UK hostages are used as a means of keeping the US force from attacking Iran.
2. Alternatively (the game of chicken), the capture might be used by the Iranians as an attempt to goad the US into a military response. If the US does not attack, the Iranians score a propoganda victory--the big bad US won't/can't help out its UK ally.

Either way, the Iranians might be successful in a divide and conquer attempt aimed at the US-UK partnership.
If the US attacks (1 above), the Iranians kill the hostages, hoping to drive a wedge between the US and UK.
If the US doesn't attack (2 above) another wedge may be driven between the US and UK.

[tequila]

I think much more likely this is Iranian tat for our ###, that is the taking of the IRGC from our good buddy Hakim's compound awhile back.

[TROUFION]

It may be ### for tat BUT the difference is clear: uniformed troops clearly identified operating on an above board stated mission on a border (resrticted waterway/disputed border) with the intent of policing smuggling vs IRGC non-uniformed troops operating clandestinely well within a sovereign state with the intent of supporting internal conflict.

This was a bad move.

Not to mention the 'illegality' of parading the brits on tv.

Cold War style brinksmanship, who flinches first?

[wm]

We may just have to wait and see a little longer. When are the carrier battle groups scheduled to end the exercise?
Tony Blair's latest comments do not seem to imply escalating to a military option any time soon by the Brits, more a display of evidence to allow the court of public opinion to judge what unjust folks the Iranians are.

[tequila]

I'm certainly not comparing the relative morality of Brit Royal Marines vs IRGC commanders. Obviously there is a world of difference there. Simply pointing out that Iran is going to respond to our actions, and to expect otherwise is silly.

[goesh]

UK is definitely asserting that their forces were clearly in Iraqi waters