Syria in 2016 (October onwards)

[CrowBat]

Time and again, I either see people asking if there are any 'good guys' in Syria, or I'm asked if there are 'any good guys left there', or there is commentary in style of 'there are no good sides in this war'.

There is no discussion about the fact that all involved parties perceive their 'armed forces' as the 'good guys' there. This is the very essence of about 99% of SCW-related discussions on the internet.

IMHO, such discussions are actually pointless and a waste of time. What really matters is how do the people living inside areas controlled by military forces in question live, i.e. how is the every-day life organized. That, after all, is the very essence of the Syrian 'Civil' War: a popular uprising against an oppressive regime that is terrorising population since more than 40 years.

In this regards, there is no doubt about who are the 'good guys' there. Namely, and without mentioning any 'names', fact is that

a) on one side there are three oppressive dictatorships, widely renowned for applying all sorts of terror against any kind of opposition;

b) on the other side there are local civic authorities, more than half of which are run by people elected by people.

Certainly enough, 'elections' in question are often rudimentary, at most 'primitively democratic', but - contrary to quasi-elections in the three dictatorships fighting against these authorities, they are genuinely competitive.

Because the reporting about authorities in question is usually drown in 'ambient sounds' caused by the mass of sensationalist reporting about all other possible topics, and for general orientation, I've created a small list of useful links about 'Local Councils' active within insurgent-held parts of Syria.

‘Good Guys’ in Syria: Collection of Links about Civic Authorities

Hope, some here might find this useful; anybody interested in expanding this list with additional informative reports is most welcome to let me know.

[CrowBat]

Thank you for your continued ORBATs of Russian forces in Syria.

You're welcome. Keep in mind I consider the ORBAT in question for 'largely obsolete' meanwhile.

Namely, I'm sure it looked like this in period October 2015 - May 2016. But, I haven't updated it ever since, and know that some of units in question ahve been rotated out of Syria during this summer. Thus I wouldn't bet on more than about 50% of it being 'accurate' nowadays.

Re. how are Russians staffing their units in Syria and how many troops they might have: frankly (as always) I do not know much about the Russian military in general. I know 'enough for general orientation' about the Russian Aerospace Force.

But, from what I've heard from my sources in that country, the situation is such that - generally - only something like one third of ground forces are 'combat ready' at any given time. Accordingly, this is so because of the draft system, and the way this works: one third of each unit is always composed of fresh draftees/rainbows undergoing basic training; one third is undergoing advanced training or on leave; and one is combat ready.

Further to this, they seem to have a number of units that are largely composed of professional soldiers: people who either volunteered to serve, or volunteered to continue their national service for an extended period of time (not sure if this is 1, 2, 3 or more years). This is what we call 'Zeitsoldaten' in Austria (something like 'Soldiers for specific period of time'), for example.

Now, the units deployed in Syria should be exclusively composed of the latter. I.e. of the 'combat ready third' of each of brigades or regiments in question, and then staffed entirely by 'Zeitsoldaten'.

It's only since relatively recently (can't recall the exact date) - namely, since Putin released a decree according to which regular troops serving their national service can be deployed abroad - that this might have changed. But even then, only the 'combat ready' third of each brigade in question is deployed.

...which in turn would explain why my ORBAT is 'full' of citations for 'battalion-sized task forces' (and confirm this too): namely, it seems that average Russian Army brigade includes three battalions.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor.....this shows you the depth of the intertwining of the Russian non linear war against the US......in theory those Americans in this group could in theory be charged as being traitors to the US.....

The FBI after reading this should be on their doorstep tomorrow morning asking the following single question...."if you are representing a "foreign state" have you formerly registered with the Us government as a "foreign agent"...if not then that alone is a federal offense.....

California's Separatist Movement Gets an ‘Embassy’ in Moscow
https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/...-moscow-56568#

[OUTLAW 09]

Powerful by @FredericHof:

"Everyone connected with the abomination in #Aleppo will pay a heavy price”

http://wpo.st/FGEN2

[OUTLAW 09]

Idlib: The green buses to evacuate people from regime-held #Fuah and #Kefraya were attacked and set on fire.

The Red Cross hopes to resume the evacuation of eastern Aleppo today. We spoke with a civilian trapped in the city.
http://en.hromadske.ua/articles/show/battle_for_aleppo#

Syria Militants burn buses heading to Fuah & Kfraya in #Idlib to evacuate Shiite villages.
Seems #Aleppo evacuation today fail too

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian wants no witnesses to their and Assad's ongoing genocide in Aleppo.....

Russia's UN envoy says he will block security council resolution sending observers to monitor Aleppo evacuations. Vote expected later today.

BREAKING Russia circulates its own UN resolution on Aleppo crisis: diplomats

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Naval Express....

Project11356M #ВМФ #ЧФ BSF frigate Admiral Grigorovich 494 returns from 44days Mediterranean deployment &transits Bosphorus towards BlackSea

Admiral Grigorovich did an average of 25.6knots from the north exit of Dardanelles strait to the south end of the Bosphorus. That's quick.

[OUTLAW 09]

Don't Forget How Trolls/Kremlin Trolls/Bots Works On Social Media/Media:Analysis Reveals:
https://globalvoices.org/2015/04/02/...twitter-bots/#

Don't forget this: Documents Show How Russia’s KremlinTrolls Army Hit USA:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/do...ca#.naL0MvrqA#

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: #Aleppo "evacuation" deal suspended, nobody has left besieged Eastern #Aleppo. Situation is very bad. People are terrified.

Heavy clashes between rebels & Assad/pro-Assad forces continue on the Maida’ani front in eastern Ghouta, #Damascus

Damascus: Heavy clashes between rebels and pro-#Assad forces in Eastern #Ghouta and Northern #Daraa.

Clashes also reported in northern #Daraa (triangle of death) between rebels & Assad militias

[OUTLAW 09]

Idlib: The green buses to evacuate people from regime-held #Fuah and #Kefraya were attacked and set on fire.

The Red Cross hopes to resume the evacuation of eastern Aleppo today. We spoke with a civilian trapped in the city.
http://en.hromadske.ua/articles/show/battle_for_aleppo#

Syria Militants burn buses heading to Fuah & Kfraya in #Idlib to evacuate Shiite villages.
Seems #Aleppo evacuation today fail too

The Free Syrian Army (FSA) condemns the burning of buses intended for Fuah & Kafraya.

= ‘Crime endangering 50,000 people in #Aleppo.'

Rumored to have been JFS who fled Aleppo....not proven though

Frmr rebel leader Omar Al-Rahmoun, a key signatory on #Aleppo evacuation deal, allegedly accuses #JFS of torching #Fuah-bound buses

Video of the bus burning....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XN8S2r2mSo#

Aleppo: Pro-#Assad forces have blocked a convoy from Eastern #Aleppo and sent the people back to the besieged area this evening.

Aleppo: People in besieged Eastern #Aleppo dying due to injuries, cold and hunger.

Idlib: A new group, called Mujahideen of Saraya al-Tawheed, vowing to target all people who come from #Fuah and #Kefraya.

Clashes now ongoing between Al-Nusra and Ahrar Al-Sham in the vicinity of the besieged towns of Kafaria & Fouaa.

[OUTLAW 09]

Iraqi families moving into #Damascus suburb: reports #Syria
http://mme.cm/CMBW00

Video: FSA directly strikes regime armored military vehicle on Arbin front, east Ghouta
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXMTuPoisIU#…

[OUTLAW 09]

5 buses enter Fuah to transport wounded in exchange for the release of half of the civilians trapped in E.Aleppo

Regime drops themobaric bombs & cluster bombs on Hajib, Banan, Bisha, Ramla & outer Khanasr, rural S.Aleppo

[OUTLAW 09]

BREAKING: Syria evacuations postponed until further notice: monitor - AFP

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Syrian Express....

Ropucha class landing ship Alexander Shabalin passed through Istanbul for her 6th Syrian Express deployment

[OUTLAW 09]

"Aleppo is a place where the children have stopped crying." Scenes of sheer terror & grief in Aleppo's last hospital

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian wants no witnesses to their and Assad's ongoing genocide in Aleppo.....

Russia's UN envoy says he will block security council resolution sending observers to monitor Aleppo evacuations. Vote expected later today.

BREAKING Russia circulates its own UN resolution on Aleppo crisis: diplomats

So #Russia is vetoing the proposal because their fear for #UN personnel's safety?

So much for the vaulted Russian AF and their vaulted Spetsnaz.....

Or is Russia trying to warn the @UN that #AssadPutin and #Iran troops are hostile towards UN personal and a threat to their lives?!

At the end of the year 2016, we came to a point where #Russia decides what global @UN troops are capable of and what not.

[OUTLAW 09]

The battle of #Aleppo "sets a horrific precedent for conflicts in the 21st century"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini....c24e00fe1370#
…

[OUTLAW 09]

The battle of #Aleppo "sets a horrific precedent for conflicts in the 21st century"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini....c24e00fe1370#

[OUTLAW 09]

I am posting this as something that might be of interest........concerns UW in the Cold War

Special Forces Berlin: Clandestine Cold War Operations of the US Army's Elite, 1956-1990
by James Stejskal

It is a little-known fact that during the Cold War, two U.S. Army Special Forces detachments were stationed far behind the Iron Curtain in West Berlin. The existence and missions of the two detachments were highly classified secrets.

The massive armies of the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact allies posed a huge threat to the nations of Western Europe. US military planners decided they needed a plan to slow the juggernaut they expected when and if a war began. The plan was Special Forces Berlin. The first 40 men who came to Berlin in mid-1956 were soon reinforced by 60 more and these 100 soldiers (and their successors) would stand ready to go to war at only two hours’ notice, in a hostile area occupied by nearly one million Warsaw Pact forces, until 1990.

Their mission should hostilities commence was to wreak havoc behind enemy lines, and buy time for vastly outnumbered NATO forces to conduct a breakout from the city. In reality it was an ambitious and extremely dangerous mission, even suicidal. Highly trained and fluent in German, each man was allocated a specific area. They were skilled in clandestine operations, sabotage, intelligence tradecraft and able to act if necessary as independent operators, blending into the local population and working unseen in a city awash with spies looking for information on their every move.

Special Forces Berlin was a one of a kind unit that had no parallel. It left a legacy of a new type of soldier expert in unconventional warfare, one that was sought after for other deployments including the attempted rescue of American hostages from Tehran in 1979. With the U.S. government officially acknowledging their existence in 2014, their incredible story can now be told.

Meet the Author
James Stejskal served for 23 years with Special Forces, including two tours in Berlin, retiring as a Chief Warrant Officer 4. He then served 13 years with the CIA as a senior Operations Officer (Case Officer) in Africa, Europe and Asia. He is now a military historian and conflict archaeologist. This is his second book.

ISBN-13:
9781612004440
Publisher:
Casemate Publishers
Publication date:
02/19/2017

ALL proceeds go to support SF families

[Azor]

I intertwine both eastern Ukraine and Syria simply because they are part and parcel of the same ongoing Russian non-linear war being actively pushed by Putin against first of the US and then EU and then NATO...since 2002…

I don’t think that Surkov’s “non-linear warfare” is helpful to our understanding of Ukraine or Syria any more than his “managed democracy”, except perhaps as a polite euphemism.

The true beginning of Putin’s more intelligent use of power was in Chechnya, where he co-opted the Kadyrovs.

Looking at Russia’s various aggressions during Putin’s rule, Crimea is actually an outlier.

In every other operation, Russia extensively relied upon local auxiliaries, including criminals and paramilitary organizations, and in all cases, there is both cooperation and conflict between Russia and these auxiliaries, and among the auxiliaries themselves.

You have reported on the anarchy in Donbas and CrowBat has reported on it in Syria, most recently in WarIsBoring. Yet these conditions also prevailed in Chechnya, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The assassinations in Donbas are reminiscent of the consolidation of Russian/Kadyrotsi rule in Chechnya. Certainly, Putin’s ideal is Transnistria, but he has no problem dealing with the anarchy in Syria, even if he is the junior partner.

It is interesting that you chose 2002 as the start of Putin’s conflict with the West. It coincides with the NATO summit in Prague, during which the former Soviet republics and Russian imperial subjects of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were invited to join NATO, which would now border Russia, Kaliningrad and Murmansk notwithstanding. In addition, NATO decided to continue to increase membership and to form the Response Force. At the summit, Bush called for a “coalition of the willing” to invade Iraq.

Putin clearly arrived at the following conclusions:

1. NATO membership would be offered to other countries bordering Russia, which it was later (to 3 of 5 prospective members)
   
2. NATO was taking on the character of an offensive military alliance, given the operations in the former Yugoslavia and Afghanistan, the formation of the Response Force and the call for a “coalition of the willing” of NATO members to invade a country outside of Europe
   
3. NATO was not concerned about Russian preferences in Kosovo or with respect to the expansion of NATO
   
4. NATO was continuing a policy of containment and perhaps even rollback toward Russia, even though Russia was not in conflict with NATO

Nor do I regard the unresolved border conflicts that Putin inherited from Yeltsin as signs of expansion. Putin obviously wants to retain the status quo in order to have outposts in Moldova and Georgia, but his de facto annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia did not occur until Georgia launched a war (and committed war crimes), until Georgia advanced toward NATO membership and until Kosovo had been recognized as independent of Serbia by the United States and most of NATO.

This is not to say that the conflict between the West and Russia is the fault of the West. In all probability, Russia could never have integrated with the West. Incorporation into the European Union would have meant the destruction of Russia’s mafia state and economic domination by Western Europe in general, and Germany in particular. Incorporation into NATO would have meant that Russia could never engage in aggression against its neighbors and that it could not rely on nuclear saber-rattling to receive special treatment diplomatically. Nevertheless, Clinton and Bush acted stupidly and exacerbated the problem.

As far as I know I am about the only commenter here that has ever been in an very real BMD exercise pushing just about every scenario under the sun directly at the BMD.....and regardless of what others write..say and or think..without THADD coupled into it and there is none in Europe and there are no plans for one......there is absolutely no threat to the Russian ICBM threat..thus MAD is still in place...

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the United States did not expect Russia to attack it, and until recently did not consider a deliberate first strike as possible. Similarly, both the UK and France are surrounded by allies and there is no realistic threat of either country being invaded, again excluding recent tensions with Russia. All three are also members of the world’s most powerful military alliance with such conventional power that nuclear weapons are regarded as a last resort. So why then did all three countries maintain and upgrade their nuclear arsenals over the past 25-odd years? Why do both Russia and the United States monitor one another’s compliance with INF and START? See where I’m going?

As you are enlightened as to BMD, can you answer me the following questions:

• Why were these systems located in Central Europe rather than closer to Iran, or in the countries most likely to be targeted by Iran?
• Was there no possibility that these systems could be upgraded so as to intercept Russia’s ICBMs or SLBMs?
• Was there no possibility that these facilities could be upgraded to feature offensive weapons such as SRBMs, or even banned weapons such as GLCMs or IRBMs?
• Were these facilities not permanent and therefore in violation of the CFE Treaty?

There is no treaty on tactical nuclear weapons, so does Russia not have a right to use them for deterrence?

Do you disagree with Clark Murdock on Russia’s concerns over MAD?