China's Far West provinces (inc. Tibet)

[davidbfpo]

Now this is interesting, notably the numbers involved and the report starts with:

A few months ago, in a remote town in Idlib province, northern Syria, an unusual foreign militant presence alarmed Syrian locals. The fighters were reportedly of the Muslim Uighur minority from Xinjiang province in Western China. For a population which has grown used to the multinational nature of the militancy, two aspects of these new fighters struck them: their large numbers and their ethnicity. A year ago, they were barely hundreds of Uighur fighters, belonging to the Al-Nusra Front-allied Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP). Today, according to several sources in the province, there are a few thousand Uighur fighters, and many of them arrived with their families after a long and treacherous journey from China and central Asia.

Link:http://english.alarabiya.net/en/pers...fighters-.html

From a "lurker":

Some interesting tidbits in here, but also gross errata. that frustrating mix...

[davidbfpo]

A "broad brush" overview and hat tip to WoTR:http://warontherocks.com/2016/04/cou...hur-militants/

A small taster:

Beijing’s strategy can be condensed into three prominent — but inherently conflicting — themes: domestic crackdown, repatriation from abroad, and non-interference.

[davidbfpo]

From Radio Free Asia a short report that illustrates that violent incidents are not being publicly reported by the PRC authorities, such as this presumably grisly attack:

As many as 28 may have died following a knife and bomb attack by a group of ethnic Uyghurs on a police traffic checkpoint in Kashgar on June 22, 2015...

Link:http://www.rfa.org/english/news/uygh...016164050.html

[AdamG]

The Islamic State is now setting its sights on China, releasing on Monday a half-hour video in which they pledged to “shed blood like rivers” in attacks against Chinese targets. Experts say it’s the first threat the terrorist organization has leveled against China.

http://www.businessinsider.com/isis-...res-why-2017-3

[davidbfpo]

An unusually long commentary by the BBC's China Editor and the title ''All-out offensive' in Xinjiang risks worsening grievances'.

So China is just like many other nations facing terrorism:

In Xinjiang, recent attacks may be small, but Beijing needs to show its public that it is doing something about them, even if that something is ineffectual or worse, counter-productive.

She concludes:

So China will go on failing to win the battle for hearts and minds in Xinjiang, and failing to convince the outside world that its offensive there is a clear-cut battle between good and evil.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-39137420

[Bill Moore]

http://www.businessinsider.com/isis-...res-why-2017-3

Always remain leery of the label expert, it is over used by the media to increase the impact of their stories. ISIS declared war on China in 2014, if not sooner, when published their map of the Caliphate that included western China. In 2009 al Qadea published a video declaring war on China, and both al Qaeda and ISIS made open threats against China last year.

This isn't just based on the perception that China is abusing its Uighurs, but historical grievances over China taking over that part of the Muslim world. If China supports Assad and Iran in Syria the terrorist threat to China will further increase.

[davidbfpo]

A rare first-hand report, sub-titled:

During a trip through China’s violence-plagued Xinjiang, the Guardian witnesses dramatic security surge as Communist party fights to ‘pacify’ region

Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...bomb-religious

[Azor]

A rare first-hand report, sub-titled:Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...bomb-religious

According to Kyle Mizokami and others, China's spending on "internal security" is slightly more than the amount that it spends on defense.

Compared to the United States, China spends roughly 300% more on law enforcement relative to GDP or more than 1.90% of its GDP.

Essentially, in terms of both these areas combined, both countries currently spend roughly 4.00% of GDP each. Therefore, how much actual "slack" is there in the Chinese budget for a large increase in military spending or for a major domestic crisis in Xinjiang/East Turkestan or Tibet?

Given that the Chinese state will struggle to impose 6% nominal GDP growth, unwind/backstop "shadow lending", stem the flight of capital, etc., I would say that the line is taut.