China's Far West provinces (inc. Tibet)

[davidbfpo]

I am sure that the presence of Western tourists, with camera phones and internet / phone access is the only reason anyone knows quickly of the rioting. Whether the Chinese will review tourist access to Tibet is a moot point. Shutting down internet and phone access I fear would be relatively easy.

Secondly there has been reporting that the native Tibetans are being outnumbered by the incoming Han Chinese. I recall Tibetans may already be in a minority.

Third, any insurgency needs weapons, preferably firearms and I doubt if Tibetans have access to them.

Once the tourists are gone we will rely on press reporting (unlikely) and those who exit carrying stories.

Sadly Tibet is a lost cause and I've not even thought about power politics, Olympics etc.

[Beelzebubalicious]

[QUOTE=davidbfpo;42595]Third, any insurgency needs weapons, preferably firearms and I doubt if Tibetans have access to them.[QUOTE]

Forgive me if this has already been discussed previously, but to what extent can an insurgency be considered as such w/out the use of weapons? Can it be done through the media, non-violent protests, etc? Is Richard Gere a weapon of propaganda in the hand of tibetan "insurgents"?

[Ray]

Beelzebubalicious,

That is real food for thought.

The concept of a ''bloodless insurgency"!

One wonders if it could be equated with Mahatma Gandhi's "Quit India" movement!

[Beelzebubalicious]

Here's a quick and dirty google search paper related to this subject:

Insurgency--What's in a Name?
An Integrated Look at Non-violence, Terrorism, Guerrilla Warfare, Revolution, Civil War and Coups

http://paladin-san-francisco.com/inindex.htm

I haven't read it, but the author quotes Clausewitz, so it must be okay...Here's one quote:

There are many familiar examples of non-violent insurgency: Ghandi's resistance to the British; U.S. Civil Rights marches; the refusal of American colonists to buy goods from England; the boycott of Captain Boycott by Irish peasants (from which the practice got its name); the 1926 British General Strike and the 1963 political prisoners' strike in Vorkuta, U.S.S.R. Another outstanding recent example was the 1968 Czech response to the Soviet invasion. That involved nearly-spontaneous resistance; advance planning and leadership were nil. Nonetheless it subverted some of the best Soviet troops, made them politically unreliable and weakened the Red Army's control over the population.

[Ray]

Why are the Communist Chinese so robotic and conditioned to believe in what the authorities say is understandable if one understand the grip on their mindset historically.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalis...ese_philosophy)

http://web.cn.edu/kwheeler/chinese_legalism.html

[Ron Humphrey]

Here's a quick and dirty google search paper related to this subject:

Insurgency--What's in a Name?
An Integrated Look at Non-violence, Terrorism, Guerrilla Warfare, Revolution, Civil War and Coups

http://paladin-san-francisco.com/inindex.htm

I haven't read it, but the author quotes Clausewitz, so it must be okay...Here's one quote:

Where we were discussing insurgencies and what they represent for a countries foriegn policy when it represents that nations underlying long term best interests.

[davidbfpo]

[QUOTE=Beelzebubalicious;44373] Third, any insurgency needs weapons, preferably firearms and I doubt if Tibetans have access to them.

Forgive me if this has already been discussed previously, but to what extent can an insurgency be considered as such w/out the use of weapons? Can it be done through the media, non-violent protests, etc? Is Richard Gere a weapon of propaganda in the hand of tibetan "insurgents"?

A valid point and the examples later cited have some relevance, except when the opponent is a modern totalitarian state. Remove the available imagery, close the borders and expel foriegniers - what impact would the Tibetan rioting have then? By sheer fluke a BBC radio journalist was in Lhasa when the rioting started and did a very revealing report two weeks ago (sorry not aware a web link).

Peaceful and non-violent campaigning alone do not work. Alongside the Captain Boycott episode was a level of actual and threatened violence (see Stanley Palmer's Police and Protest in England and Ireland 1780-1950).

davidbfpo

[Ray]

How far would the Chinese concept of Legalism be the explanation of their actions in Tibet and Xinjiang?

Legalism was a pragmatic political philosophy, with maxims like "when the epoch changed, legalism is the act of following all laws", and its essential principle is one of jurisprudence. "Legalism" here can bear the meaning of "political philosophy that upholds the rule of law", and is thus distinguished from the word's Western sense. The school's most famous proponent and contributor Han Fei believed that a ruler should govern his or her subjects by the following trinity:

1. Fa (Chinese: 法; pinyin: fǎ; literally "law or principle"): The law code must be clearly written and made public. All people under the ruler were equal before the law. Laws should reward those who obey them and punish accordingly those who dare to break them. Thus it is guaranteed that actions taken are systematically predictable. In addition, the system of law ran the state, not the ruler. If the law is successfully enforced, even a weak ruler will be strong.

2. Shu (Chinese: 術; pinyin: shù; literally "method, tactic or art"): Special tactics and "secrets" are to be employed by the ruler to make sure others don't take over control of the state. Especially important is that no one can fathom the ruler's motivations, and thus no one can know which behaviour might help them getting ahead; except for following the 法 or laws.

3. Shi (Chinese: 勢; pinyin: shì; literally "legitimacy, power or charisma"): It is the position of the ruler, not the ruler himself or herself, that holds the power. Therefore, analysis of the trends, the context, and the facts are essential for a real ruler.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalis...ese_philosophy)

I have quoted Wikipedia since it sums up the issue.

Other reads:

http://www.wsu.edu/~dee/CHPHIL/LEGALISM.HTM

http://web.cn.edu/kwheeler/chinese_legalism.html


Given that this is the underlining principle, and the fact that they will ensure the writ of the State with all its power irrespective of the world opinion, is there any chance of insurgency succeeding in Tibet or Xinjiang?

From a geostrategic standpoint, the pace at which China is moving toward becoming a superpower is dangerous to Western interests as also to countries on China's periphery.

A walkthrough of various forums indicates a sudden 'assault' in hordes of Chinese bloggers and posters and many, in true Communist doublespeak, indicate that the Tibet issue is but a western plot to undermine China and its growing power and international acceptability. Their contentions do indicate a high affinity to the concept of Legalism of Chinese thought.

Therefore, apart from Taiwan, should there not be more focus on the Tibetan and Uighur aspirations so that they achieve their goals and at the same time, divert China's resources and attention?

The Chinese are said to be planning to draw on the Caspian oil to feed her industrial needs and the pipeline is to pass through these areas. Therefore, any unrest in these areas would be in the best interest to ensure that there is a slowdown of Chinese aspirations to become a world power.

Interesting that it maybe, is it feasible?

[Asterix]

By sheer fluke a BBC radio journalist was in Lhasa when the rioting started and did a very revealing report two weeks ago (sorry not aware a web link).


davidbfpo

Excuse the first post.

Transcript: James Miles interview on Tibet (CNN) .
Which was also in The Economist: Trashing the Beijing Road (The Economist)

[marct]

From CBC.ca

China opens door to talks with Dalai Lama representative
Last Updated: Friday, April 25, 2008 | 5:40 AM ET Comments12Recommend19
CBC News

The Chinese government is preparing to meet with a private representative of the Dalai Lama, China's Xinhua News Agency reported on Friday.

The meeting will happen "in the coming days" and is the result of "requests repeatedly made by the Dalai side for resuming talks," an official told the news agency.

More...

[tequila]

The timing is interesting, with EU reps in town --- perhaps the Euros were influential in this. The EU is China's largest trading partner.

[marct]

The timing is interesting, with EU reps in town --- perhaps the Euros were influential in this. The EU is China's largest trading partner.

It wouldn't surprise me at all. I think part of it is that China has alsoasked for EU, Interpol and US help on security at the games.