The Trump impact on US policy

[OUTLAW 09]

Note the need of the Chmn of Senate Intel Cmte @SenatorBurr to profess respect for Intel community in announcing probe of #RussiaHacking

[OUTLAW 09]

Turns out this new viral video site is part of Russian government-funded Russian Today, although you'd never tell by looking:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/ishmaeldaro...-russian-govt#

[Azor]

The US Response to Russian Cyberwarfare

It is astounding that the White House and Intelligence Community would not count on Russia interfering in the primaries and election.

Snowden revealed that the United States has the best SIGINT and cyberwarfare capabilities in the world, and this was kept secret from the public, who believed for many years that China and Russia were superior in these areas. There is a great deal of discussion on how the DOD and various service branches are creating cyberwarfare units to “catch up” to their opposite numbers in Russia and China, but this discussion misses the point that it was the NSA developing the capabilities. The creation of Cyber Command at the NSA’s headquarters had more to do with legal and political issues than ones of capability.

As for Russian disinformation, it is actually difficult to counter. Putin did not create the machine in order to convince Westerners of anything, which he knew would fail. Instead of taking on the role of a prosecutor, who has to prove a case to the audience, Putin took on the role of defense counsel, where his only task was to create doubt. Russia issues a swarm of positive claims that independently are unbelievable, but in aggregate, and in concert with its negative claims, succeed in creating doubt. Putin isn’t seeking to influence elites in the West. He is seeking to influence the man at a bar or dinner table, having a casual conversation with friends.

Example 1: “Don’t you believe that Russia invaded Ukraine?”  “Yeah, but there are Russians there and…it’s complicated…I just don’t know…we should just stay out of it…”

Example 2: “Not all Syrian rebels are terrorists, you know that right?”  “I know, but it seems that way sometimes…it’s complicated…I just don’t know…we should just stay out of it…”

Putin places the burden of proof on Obama, who would rather “just stay out” of foreign crises if possible. In today’s world of Tweets, how can Obama possible explain the nuances of the Syrian Civil War to the American public? He can either take a pro-Assad or anti-Assad position, and Trump has chosen the former. For the latter, Obama would have to declare that Iran has invaded Syria, is attempting to conquer it and that Iranian aggression, including by their client Assad, must be defeated.

But then this narrative if followed would nullify the JCPOA and lead to a US war with Syria, Iran, Iraq and possibly Russia, with additional insurgencies in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. So Obama has no counter.

The Intelligence Community on Russian Theft and Disclosure of DNC Materials

Again, I believe that the Russians were responsible for the WikiLeaks releases of DNC materials. I have always believed that Snowden, Assange and Manning are Russian agents, because the Russians are probably the best at developing assets whereas the West has to typically wait for defectors to approach.

I agree with the conclusions of Mark Galeotti and Paul Gregory on Russia’s interference during the election.

I also believe that the CIA’s conclusion about Russian intentions, leaked to the press by an anonymous official, was intended to insinuate that Trump was an illegitimate president. CIA Director Brennan has stated that he wants to serve under Hillary Clinton, and both Deputy Directors are Democratic operatives with no intelligence or defense experience prior to appointment by Obama.

Also note the list of former intelligence officials who have publicly endorsed Hillary Clinton, and this list does not even include former NSC or DHS officials:

• David Shedd (DIA)
• John Negroponte (ODNI)
• Michael Leiter (ODNI)
• Matt Olsen (ODNI)
• Michael Hayden (NSA)

CIA alone:

• David Petraeus (ex-Director)
• Michael Morell (ex-Director)
• Michael Hayden (ex-Director)
• Robert Gates (ex-Director)
• Mike Baker (officer)
• Evan McMullin (officer)

Quite an unbiased group of professionals, wouldn't you say? Arguably, the WikiLeaks release of the DNC e-mails was intended to influence the primary and give Sanders a chance.

As with Brexit, the losing side is executing “Project Fear” and attempting to overturn Trump’s election. First, there were accusations that the Russians manipulated the polling machines, which were baseless. Second, there were accusations that Russia swung the election for Trump by manipulating public opinion. Third, Comey was accused of acting for Trump by issuing his letters to Congress. Fourth, there are attempts to change the Electors’ votes so as to trigger a constitutional crisis. Notice that everyone is blamed but Hillary.

Trump’s Response to the CIA’s “Conclusion”

Trump’s response was correct. He knew that the CIA was playing politics. He also knew that Americans would not understand the nuance of: “Yes, the Russians interfered. No, they didn’t necessarily want me elected. No, they weren’t responsible for my win”. Clinton’s insinuation that Trump is a Russian agent, began months ago, is too toxic for Trump to even approach.

We know that intelligence on Operation Inherent Resolve was manipulated to show a higher level of success against Daesh than in actuality. In addition, the CIA and DOD estimates of Daesh's fighting strength in 2014 and 2015 were ridiculously low (~10X lower than Peshmerga estimates). Of course, it wouldn't do for Obama's hasty exit from Iraq to have helped create a larger and worse version of Al Qaeda, now would it? To date, the Coalition has killed more Daesh fighters than originally estimated...

As with Brexit, you are propagating "Project Fear". Do you remember our tête-à-tête over Brexit? If you do, then you should know that I'm not going to roll over for this one either.

You thought that Hillary would give you the more muscular foreign policy you wanted: arms to Ukraine, increased information/intelligence operations against Russia, increased sanctions on Russia, a no-fly and perhaps no-drive zone in Syria, etc. I know you didn't get what you wanted, but it's not worth a constitutional crisis over.

When Obama doesn't do as you like, well, he's throwing the poor Ukrainians and Syrians under the bus, he's in league with Putin and Khamenei to massacre Sunni Arabs, etc.

You can continue to swarm with posts and links, but it doesn't change the fact that Trump won, and Russia's interference didn't change the outcome of the election. It didn't. Not by any measure of electoral chances. If you want to blame someone, blame Comey, or better yet, Hillary herself.

We'll see what Trump does. He might surprise you yet and let the Russians and Iranians have it. If he does, and he earns your absentee ballot, you'll have a lot of deleting to do.

[Bill Moore]

Azor,

You correctly described Russia's influence operations focusing on creating doubt, and I agree, as does every professional intelligence analysis without a political axe to grind that their hacking didn't change the outcome of the election. Furthermore, you are probably correct their goal is to divide further politically by calling into question the legitimacy of the election. Finally, Obama and Clinton knew about the allegations of Russia's hacking long before Trump was authorized to see intelligence reports, yet there were no complaints from the left when Clinton was ahead. We are increasingly vulnerable as a nation with the level of division between the left and the right.

[Azor]

Azor,

You correctly described Russia's influence operations focusing on creating doubt, and I agree, as does every professional intelligence analysis without a political axe to grind that their hacking didn't change the outcome of the election. Furthermore, you are probably correct their goal is to divide further politically by calling into question the legitimacy of the election. Finally, Obama and Clinton knew about the allegations of Russia's hacking long before Trump was authorized to see intelligence reports, yet there were no complaints from the left when Clinton was ahead. We are increasingly vulnerable as a nation with the level of division between the left and the right.

Thank you for your words, Bill.

Placing yourself in the center is an exhausting proposition when both sides want to crush you.

I never subscribed to the view that Hillary Clinton was a criminal or responsible for Benghazi (what then of Schultz and Albright?), but I do believe that she was dishonest, unethical and arrogant. Remember that Hillary decried a "vast right-wing conspiracy" against her in 1998, so only arrogance can explain why she did not take steps 13 years later to prevent that relentless foe from finding chinks in her armor.

As for the FBI investigation, there were only two choices for Hillary in June/July: criminality or incompetence, of which Comey chose the latter. She was not unlike a criminal who pleads not guilty by reason of insanity, but then wants out of the psychiatric unit the next day.

I find the insinuations that Trump is a Russian agent equally ridiculous. Hillary wanted to attract the hawks from the Republican Party, and used Russia as a wedge issue, and yet while she was successful with the elite, the rank-and-file were not convinced that the United States should be more assertive in either Ukraine or Syria. Sanders' supporters were equally isolationist if not more so...

If you look at the timing of the major WikiLeaks release in July, it was intended to influence the Democratic primary and give Sanders a chance, rather than help Trump edge out Clinton.

[slapout9]

If you look at the timing of the major WikiLeaks release in July, it was intended to influence the Democratic primary and give Sanders a chance, rather than help Trump edge out Clinton.

Bingo! I think you are correct. They were trying to help Sanders!!!!!! not Trump but few see the connection.

[OUTLAW 09]

The US Response to Russian Cyberwarfare

It is astounding that the White House and Intelligence Community would not count on Russia interfering in the primaries and election.

Snowden revealed that the United States has the best SIGINT and cyberwarfare capabilities in the world, and this was kept secret from the public, who believed for many years that China and Russia were superior in these areas. There is a great deal of discussion on how the DOD and various service branches are creating cyberwarfare units to “catch up” to their opposite numbers in Russia and China, but this discussion misses the point that it was the NSA developing the capabilities. The creation of Cyber Command at the NSA’s headquarters had more to do with legal and political issues than ones of capability.

As for Russian disinformation, it is actually difficult to counter. Putin did not create the machine in order to convince Westerners of anything, which he knew would fail. Instead of taking on the role of a prosecutor, who has to prove a case to the audience, Putin took on the role of defense counsel, where his only task was to create doubt. Russia issues a swarm of positive claims that independently are unbelievable, but in aggregate, and in concert with its negative claims, succeed in creating doubt. Putin isn’t seeking to influence elites in the West. He is seeking to influence the man at a bar or dinner table, having a casual conversation with friends.

Example 1: “Don’t you believe that Russia invaded Ukraine?”  “Yeah, but there are Russians there and…it’s complicated…I just don’t know…we should just stay out of it…”

Example 2: “Not all Syrian rebels are terrorists, you know that right?”  “I know, but it seems that way sometimes…it’s complicated…I just don’t know…we should just stay out of it…”

Putin places the burden of proof on Obama, who would rather “just stay out” of foreign crises if possible. In today’s world of Tweets, how can Obama possible explain the nuances of the Syrian Civil War to the American public? He can either take a pro-Assad or anti-Assad position, and Trump has chosen the former. For the latter, Obama would have to declare that Iran has invaded Syria, is attempting to conquer it and that Iranian aggression, including by their client Assad, must be defeated.

But then this narrative if followed would nullify the JCPOA and lead to a US war with Syria, Iran, Iraq and possibly Russia, with additional insurgencies in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. So Obama has no counter.

The Intelligence Community on Russian Theft and Disclosure of DNC Materials

Again, I believe that the Russians were responsible for the WikiLeaks releases of DNC materials. I have always believed that Snowden, Assange and Manning are Russian agents, because the Russians are probably the best at developing assets whereas the West has to typically wait for defectors to approach.

I agree with the conclusions of Mark Galeotti and Paul Gregory on Russia’s interference during the election.

I also believe that the CIA’s conclusion about Russian intentions, leaked to the press by an anonymous official, was intended to insinuate that Trump was an illegitimate president. CIA Director Brennan has stated that he wants to serve under Hillary Clinton, and both Deputy Directors are Democratic operatives with no intelligence or defense experience prior to appointment by Obama.

Also note the list of former intelligence officials who have publicly endorsed Hillary Clinton, and this list does not even include former NSC or DHS officials:

• David Shedd (DIA)
• John Negroponte (ODNI)
• Michael Leiter (ODNI)
• Matt Olsen (ODNI)
• Michael Hayden (NSA)

CIA alone:

• David Petraeus (ex-Director)
• Michael Morell (ex-Director)
• Michael Hayden (ex-Director)
• Robert Gates (ex-Director)
• Mike Baker (officer)
• Evan McMullin (officer)

Quite an unbiased group of professionals, wouldn't you say? Arguably, the WikiLeaks release of the DNC e-mails was intended to influence the primary and give Sanders a chance.

As with Brexit, the losing side is executing “Project Fear” and attempting to overturn Trump’s election. First, there were accusations that the Russians manipulated the polling machines, which were baseless. Second, there were accusations that Russia swung the election for Trump by manipulating public opinion. Third, Comey was accused of acting for Trump by issuing his letters to Congress. Fourth, there are attempts to change the Electors’ votes so as to trigger a constitutional crisis. Notice that everyone is blamed but Hillary.

Trump’s Response to the CIA’s “Conclusion”

Trump’s response was correct. He knew that the CIA was playing politics. He also knew that Americans would not understand the nuance of: “Yes, the Russians interfered. No, they didn’t necessarily want me elected. No, they weren’t responsible for my win”. Clinton’s insinuation that Trump is a Russian agent, began months ago, is too toxic for Trump to even approach.

We know that intelligence on Operation Inherent Resolve was manipulated to show a higher level of success against Daesh than in actuality. In addition, the CIA and DOD estimates of Daesh's fighting strength in 2014 and 2015 were ridiculously low (~10X lower than Peshmerga estimates). Of course, it wouldn't do for Obama's hasty exit from Iraq to have helped create a larger and worse version of Al Qaeda, now would it? To date, the Coalition has killed more Daesh fighters than originally estimated...

As with Brexit, you are propagating "Project Fear". Do you remember our tête-à-tête over Brexit? If you do, then you should know that I'm not going to roll over for this one either.

You thought that Hillary would give you the more muscular foreign policy you wanted: arms to Ukraine, increased information/intelligence operations against Russia, increased sanctions on Russia, a no-fly and perhaps no-drive zone in Syria, etc. I know you didn't get what you wanted, but it's not worth a constitutional crisis over.

When Obama doesn't do as you like, well, he's throwing the poor Ukrainians and Syrians under the bus, he's in league with Putin and Khamenei to massacre Sunni Arabs, etc.

You can continue to swarm with posts and links, but it doesn't change the fact that Trump won, and Russia's interference didn't change the outcome of the election. It didn't. Not by any measure of electoral chances. If you want to blame someone, blame Comey, or better yet, Hillary herself.

We'll see what Trump does. He might surprise you yet and let the Russians and Iranians have it. If he does, and he earns your absentee ballot, you'll have a lot of deleting to do.

Azor....then what was the sudden shift by the FBI when they were fully and completely read on and into the available CIA evidence that included key foreign intelligence??????

REMEMBER Trump diverted attention from himself and when he knew and his tweet lies...by stating..."see even the FBI and ODNI does not agree with the CIA"...WHAT does he now say....he has actually been totally silent since the ODNI/FBI announcements...

BUT WAIT...really check when WikiLeaks dumped the last key data....Infowars, Alan Jackson...and Bretbart.com were cheering the day that WL stated they would release them BUT suddenly WL did not leak....BUT then they did...LONG after the primaries and Sanders ...so throwing out Sanders is a blatant smokescreen in this debate...stay focused on the actual release dates of hack DNC materials via WL...not assumptions.....dates....real dates....

WHAT you and others fail to see....this is not a specific attack on the DNC...on Clinton and in fact on the RNC...which we know nothing about what they hold in Moscow over the RNC with emails....WHAT they stole in typical Russian active measures fashion was put to good strategic use regardless of the target and the more they could hit with it the better....

THIS is a continuing attack on the US as a whole liberal system....go back and fully understand the current three geopolitical goals of Putin and then rethink just how these active measures was used to support those goals....

Especially in light of the DoD hack of 2015 that virtually crippled DoD until the hack was cleared....and a specific hack on a US power grid late 2015..that has not been talked about in the US.

[Azor]

Firstly, you are ignoring several issues with the CIA’s leaked conclusion as to Russian intent:

• The CIA’s mission is foreign not domestic
• The CIA is not the technical leader in SIGINT/cyber
• How would the CIA have more insight than the FBI, given the latter’s mission?
• How would the CIA have more insight than the NSA, given the latter’s capabilities?
• How can you dismiss the endorsement of Hillary Clinton by 4 former Directors of the CIA and 2 former officers?
• How can you dismiss the support for Hillary Clinton by the current Director or the fact that the Deputy Directors are political operatives?

Secondly, WikiLeaks’s primary release of information (the DNC e-mail correspondence) was prior to the Democratic Primary. The release on Podesta’s e-mails were in October, but had no noticeable effect, given the uproar over the Access Hollywood tape.

Thirdly, I am glad that you are acknowledging that WikiLeaks has ammunition with which to attack both Trump and the GOP.

Fourth, we can agree that Putin wants to undermine American democracy, particularly in order to legitimize Russia’s own “managed democracy”.

Fifth, you will have to post sources on the hacks on the DOD and US power grid in 2015.

Lastly, I am also glad that you are no longer insinuating that Trump is a Russian agent or that his election victory was due to Russian interference.

[OUTLAW 09]

Firstly, you are ignoring several issues with the CIA’s leaked conclusion as to Russian intent:

• The CIA’s mission is foreign not domestic
• The CIA is not the technical leader in SIGINT/cyber
• How would the CIA have more insight than the FBI, given the latter’s mission?
• How would the CIA have more insight than the NSA, given the latter’s capabilities?
• How can you dismiss the endorsement of Hillary Clinton by 4 former Directors of the CIA and 2 former officers?
• How can you dismiss the support for Hillary Clinton by the current Director or the fact that the Deputy Directors are political operatives?

Secondly, WikiLeaks’s primary release of information (the DNC e-mail correspondence) was prior to the Democratic Primary. The release on Podesta’s e-mails were in October, but had no noticeable effect, given the uproar over the Access Hollywood tape.

Thirdly, I am glad that you are acknowledging that WikiLeaks has ammunition with which to attack both Trump and the GOP.

Fourth, we can agree that Putin wants to undermine American democracy, particularly in order to legitimize Russia’s own “managed democracy”.

Fifth, you will have to post sources on the hacks on the DOD and US power grid in 2015.

Lastly, I am also glad that you are no longer insinuating that Trump is a Russian agent or that his election victory was due to Russian interference.

Azor...you must really do research on the IC.....

1. let us get the following out of the way and assume I am correct which BTW I am.......36% of ALL twitter social media proTrump and anti Clinton tweets came from the Russian backed Macedonia trolling company...36%.....

We are still comparing the data but it appears that they were a total of over 404 "fake news sites in the US"...all feeding off of three key fake sites that even Fox and company were even quoting....

AND many of those supporting Trump stated publicly they got their info from social media

2. an American...at least he claims he is one....sitting in France and adamantly claiming he is anti Clinton drove a "fake news site" that was picked up by over these 404 proTrump blogsites...fake news sites....Infowars...Alex Jones...and Brietbart.com.

SO in theory that you think I have not abandoned the idea the Trump was largely supported and helped by Russia...think again...he was in fact supported by Putin and Russia did influence the election....via propaganda...disinformation...proTrump trolling and fake news sites....

You really do need to get a job at both CIA and NSA....yes CIA handles foreign vs the domestic side by the FBI...BUT these Russian hacks and info warfare ALL came from outside the US NOT inside the US.....AND the FBI does not have the overseas collection abilities of the CIA nor can they confirm or deny without assistance from the CIA/NSA...

If you knew the IC then you would have often seen NSA data being used to back up CIA information on the concept of confirm or deny...this allows the NSA to remain in the shadows and not have to release their sources of their information

NOW go back to the Mother Jones article concerning the Russian active measures...THAT got shot to hell by the then MSM and so called experts because they did not want to release the sources of the information BEFORE the election....

THAT information was in fact reconfirmed by the CIA...as it was built off of verified intelligence passed to them from foreign sources...

Ever notice that that particular article has not resurfaced after the CIA report?

IT was used to signal to the CIA.... yes we have info if you are interested and it is verified...and in this business if it is verified you are home free in the HUMINT world.....

BTW...at one time Trump was claiming he had over 280 US Generals and senior officers supporting him BUT he never did reveal their names did he??????...at least those supporting Clinton allowed their names to be printed....

OR was Trump lying about those Generals????

BTW all political nominations must still adhere to the released internal research and reports...BUT this is important ....all political nominees do not and cannot influence the final intel product.....as the reports are conducted by true civil service and contractor types and politics are forbidden in the analysis world....UNLESS you are a Cmdr at CENTCOM using undo influence....which is a military problem....

I assume WL has ammunition on just about anyone and or anything Russia has hacked in the last ten years especially what Snowdon fed them...

BUT you raise an interesting question.... WHY were they one sided and not two sided and release all on all DNC and RNC?????? CORE Question...

DoD hack was in 2015 and the news article carried here in SWC...the power grid hack customer has not authorized the release of the information under non disclosure....

AND yes again I am stating Russia via Putin did influence the Trump election....

FROM today....polling is indicating a full 52% of Trump voters fully believe the Trump lies that he won the general election....right now he is approximately 3M votes behind in the general election numbers.....THAT is not a "win"

He also tweeted that he has a record Electoral College votes...ACTUALLY another lie.... he is 46th in all time votes....NOT the largest as he alludes to in his tweets....

I can post those tweets of his where he alludes to this very thing....

Azor.....BTW...notice how erratic Trump has been with his tweets over the Chinese taking of the research drone

In Beijing on Sunday, the Global Times, a Communist Party-controlled newspaper known for its nationalist town, poked fun at the mixed messages coming from the United States.

“Before Trump’s generous announcement that he didn’t want the drone back, the Pentagon had already announced publicly that they have asked China to return the ‘illegally seized’ [unmanned underwater vehicle] through appropriate governmental channels,” the paper wrote.#“We don’t know, after seeing Trump’s new tweets, if the Pentagon should feel boggled.”

[OUTLAW 09]

Haaretz.com
✔
@haaretzcom
Why Trump's pick for Israel envoy is anti-Israeli | Gideon Levy
http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-1.759618#

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...you must really do research on the IC.....

1. let us get the following out of the way and assume I am correct which BTW I am.......36% of ALL twitter social media proTrump and anti Clinton tweets came from the Russian backed Macedonia trolling company...36%.....

We are still comparing the data but it appears that they were a total of over 404 "fake news sites in the US"...all feeding off of three key fake sites that even Fox and company were even quoting....

AND many of those supporting Trump stated publicly they got their info from social media

2. an American...at least he claims he is one....sitting in France and adamantly claiming he is anti Clinton drove a "fake news site" that was picked up by over these 404 proTrump blogsites...fake news sites....Infowars...Alex Jones...and Brietbart.com.

SO in theory that you think I have not abandoned the idea the Trump was largely supported and helped by Russia...think again...he was in fact supported by Putin and Russia did influence the election....via propaganda...disinformation...proTrump trolling and fake news sites....

You really do need to get a job at both CIA and NSA....yes CIA handles foreign vs the domestic side by the FBI...BUT these Russian hacks and info warfare ALL came from outside the US NOT inside the US.....AND the FBI does not have the overseas collection abilities of the CIA nor can they confirm or deny without assistance from the CIA/NSA...

If you knew the IC then you would have often seen NSA data being used to back up CIA information on the concept of confirm or deny...this allows the NSA to remain in the shadows and not have to release their sources of their information

NOW go back to the Mother Jones article concerning the Russian active measures...THAT got shot to hell by the then MSM and so called experts because they did not want to release the sources of the information BEFORE the election....

THAT information was in fact reconfirmed by the CIA...as it was built off of verified intelligence passed to them from foreign sources...

Ever notice that that particular article has not resurfaced after the CIA report?

IT was used to signal to the CIA.... yes we have info if you are interested and it is verified...and in this business if it is verified you are home free in the HUMINT world.....

BTW...at one time Trump was claiming he had over 280 US Generals and senior officers supporting him BUT he never did reveal their names did he??????...at least those supporting Clinton allowed their names to be printed....

OR was Trump lying about those Generals????

BTW all political nominations must still adhere to the released internal research and reports...BUT this is important ....all political nominees do not and cannot influence the final intel product.....as the reports are conducted by true civil service and contractor types and politics are forbidden in the analysis world....UNLESS you are a Cmdr at CENTCOM using undo influence....which is a military problem....

I assume WL has ammunition on just about anyone and or anything Russia has hacked in the last ten years especially what Snowdon fed them...

BUT you raise an interesting question.... WHY were they one sided and not two sided and release all on all DNC and RNC?????? CORE Question...

DoD hack was in 2015 and the news article carried here in SWC...the power grid hack customer has not authorized the release of the information under non disclosure....

AND yes again I am stating Russia via Putin did influence the Trump election....

FROM today....polling is indicating a full 52% of Trump voters fully believe the Trump lies that he won the general election....right now he is approximately 3M votes behind in the general election numbers.....THAT is not a "win"

He also tweeted that he has a record Electoral College votes...ACTUALLY another lie.... he is 46th in all time votes....NOT the largest as he alludes to in his tweets....

I can post those tweets of his where he alludes to this very thing....

Azor.....BTW...notice how erratic Trump has been with his tweets over the Chinese taking of the research drone

Azor......just from today........

Last night's electricity blackout in Kiev, Ukraine was caused by a cyber attack:
http://www.interfax.ru/world/541917
In Russian.....