Syria in 2017 (January-April)

[OUTLAW 09]

To all readers of this thread….


I have been reading SWJ since 2004 when I first became aware of it…and I have since then contributed a few articles to it as well as FP…

But since the Russian military annexation of Crimea…their unleashing of non linear warfare with cyber and information warfare as it’s core and then their military invasion of Ukraine and their adventure into Syria in the name to defeat IS which we all know is a farce……

During the last two years I have posted roughly 30,000 posts on these two areas and then starting posting more and more information on Russian infor and cyber warfare.

Alone on the Ukrainian thread Views have in the last two years climbed to over 980,000 …the Syrian thread climbed in the same time to over 360,000. I also noted that in the last two months the Russian disinformation and hacking has climbed over 8,000 Views.

While it is hard to see if readers were looking/researching or just skimming through I am happy that they “viewed” anything as I have seen that basically a lot of what I posted never did make it into US MSM or if it did…then days later.

During this process I have learned the value of social media OSINT and the ability of conducting excellent information warfare using social media….and took pains to show how Russian info warfare was being conducted both in Ukraine and Syria….and developed along the way a working relationship with @bellingcat one of the best social media OSINT types going these days..actually produces better quality open reporting than anything I have previously seen in the IC which also uses OSINT...

Along the way I have bashed the Obama WH for basically changing the entire ME in the desire to tilt fully to Iran and for their apparent lack of a solid strategic strategy on virtually anything…and they walked away from engaging in the Ukraine…..the Obama WH was great smoke and mirrors machine and the US MSM never really challenged that…

We then transitioned to the Trump WH….and suddenly and truly we are seeing for the first time the somehat serious political theory of “Wag the Dog” in it’s full glory being applied to cover up for a total lack of any strategy on anything other than “tweets” being used as a FP……using "on a whim and a prayer" as FP....

I learned a long time ago after VN if one does not ever speak truth to power things get worse….and in my work career that was a principle I held to which cost me sometimes, but I always learned even then you in fact move forward…because some along the way respected that.

The posting has led me to fully “see” and “understand” the intertwining of a lack of US FP built on well thought through strategies and allowed me to see at the same the interesting development of the Russian non linear warfare which is pushing their political war with the US….and they do view it as an actual war…somehow we do not…

BTW I have posted many comments on this concept of “seeing” and “understanding” something that drives me in all these years as I learned long ago ground reality “does talk to you..if you are willing to listen”….

After being recently chastised and sidelined for three days “for being on a soap box” that not many were willing to actually share…..even though reading and then responding by cut and pasting comments….I have decided it is now a good time to withdraw from SWC…it has been a great ride , the knowledge I gained in the postings has flowed into my company in a far different way than I even imagined and is openly up a startling new realm in integrating hacking defense with customers demanding now how to counter the everyday info war they are in….

It has been one heck of a long ride and I really enjoyed it…will comment on occasions if an article interests me…….

The killing in eastern Ukraine and Syria will just continue until someone stands up in the US and truly leads….and leads not by tweets….but by the realization of what Putin’s geo political goals really are guided by a strategic strategy...finally.....

Based on evidence I have had the opportunity to be shown/review the person tweeting might not be in office much longer IF treason counts for anything these days in the US…

Hopefully CrowBat will continue his postings...

[OUTLAW 09]

Final posting...always remember if it is the last thing learned from this thread....Assad...IS...Iran and Putin are all linked together and since 2006.......and Obama and Trump have gotten it totally wrong when both state Syria is not important in the grand scheme of American FP....it was always central to the ME....

Kyle Orton‏
Verified account
@KyleWOrton
Follow
From DEC:
https://goo.gl/bVJSuJ#

Among reasons IS is entrenched in Deir Ezzor: based there when Assad used IS against us in Iraq.

This particular writer has pointed this out repeatedly as have three other writers in countless articles on this topic that somehow never made it into both the Obama WH AND now the Trump WH...meaning his twitter account...

[Azor]

To all readers of this thread….


I have been reading SWJ since 2004 when I first became aware of it…and I have since then contributed a few articles to it as well as FP…

But since the Russian military annexation of Crimea…their unleashing of non linear warfare with cyber and information warfare as it’s core and then their military invasion of Ukraine and their adventure into Syria in the name to defeat IS which we all know is a farce……

During the last two years I have posted roughly 30,000 posts on these two areas and then starting posting more and more information on Russian infor and cyber warfare.

Alone on the Ukrainian thread Views have in the last two years climbed to over 980,000 …the Syrian thread climbed in the same time to over 360,000. I also noted that in the last two months the Russian disinformation and hacking has climbed over 8,000 Views.

While it is hard to see if readers were looking/researching or just skimming through I am happy that they “viewed” anything as I have seen that basically a lot of what I posted never did make it into US MSM or if it did…then days later.

During this process I have learned the value of social media OSINT and the ability of conducting excellent information warfare using social media….and took pains to show how Russian info warfare was being conducted both in Ukraine and Syria….and developed along the way a working relationship with @bellingcat one of the best social media OSINT types going these days..actually produces better quality open reporting than anything I have previously seen in the IC which also uses OSINT...

Along the way I have bashed the Obama WH for basically changing the entire ME in the desire to tilt fully to Iran and for their apparent lack of a solid strategic strategy on virtually anything…and they walked away from engaging in the Ukraine…..the Obama WH was great smoke and mirrors machine and the US MSM never really challenged that…

We then transitioned to the Trump WH….and suddenly and truly we are seeing for the first time the somehat serious political theory of “Wag the Dog” in it’s full glory being applied to cover up for a total lack of any strategy on anything other than “tweets” being used as a FP……using "on a whim and a prayer" as FP....

I learned a long time ago after VN if one does not ever speak truth to power things get worse….and in my work career that was a principle I held to which cost me sometimes, but I always learned even then you in fact move forward…because some along the way respected that.

The posting has led me to fully “see” and “understand” the intertwining of a lack of US FP built on well thought through strategies and allowed me to see at the same the interesting development of the Russian non linear warfare which is pushing their political war with the US….and they do view it as an actual war…somehow we do not…

BTW I have posted many comments on this concept of “seeing” and “understanding” something that drives me in all these years as I learned long ago ground reality “does talk to you..if you are willing to listen”….

After being recently chastised and sidelined for three days “for being on a soap box” that not many were willing to actually share…..even though reading and then responding by cut and pasting comments….I have decided it is now a good time to withdraw from SWC…it has been a great ride , the knowledge I gained in the postings has flowed into my company in a far different way than I even imagined and is openly up a startling new realm in integrating hacking defense with customers demanding now how to counter the everyday info war they are in….

It has been one heck of a long ride and I really enjoyed it…will comment on occasions if an article interests me…….

The killing in eastern Ukraine and Syria will just continue until someone stands up in the US and truly leads….and leads not by tweets….but by the realization of what Putin’s geo political goals really are guided by a strategic strategy...finally.....

Based on evidence I have had the opportunity to be shown/review the person tweeting might not be in office much longer IF treason counts for anything these days in the US…

Hopefully CrowBat will continue his postings...

Outlaw,
#
I am sorry that you feel this way.# You have certainly helped keep everyone at SWC up to date on the daily goings on in Ukraine and Syria, even when mainstream Western media and audiences grew disinterested.# Your prolific posting is noted and appreciated, even if SWC can appear to be a one-man forum at times. #Certainly, your use of social media OSINT has been effective during periods of intensity, when the MSM is unsure of what is actually occurring on the ground. #
#
Yet not all contact is a skirmish and not all skirmishes are battles and not all battles are strategic or decisive.# Ukrainian soldiers will step on mines and be hit with sniper fire without impacting the broader conflict.# Some TOWs will take out a squad of Hezbollah sheltering behind an earthwork, and others will merely injure a couple of Assad's conscripts. #

You certainly have a passion for countering Russian propaganda and encouraging the U.S. to engage more in Ukraine and Syria. #

Yet Russia is not the only beast in the woods, there are charnel houses just as bad if not worse than Syria in the D.R. Congo and Burundi, and the Russo-Ukrainian War is a mere blip compared to most ongoing wars as well as the Balkans, Europe's last war. #

Nor is perspective indifference. With that in mind, I would say that none of the active members of SWC could do much to impact Obama's foreign policy and the same is true for Trump. #



While you served in Vietnam, political decisions were being made that would sabotage any chance of an independent South Vietnamese state. At the same time, genocide was underway in Bangladesh, China and Indonesia, and would be exported to Cambodia. In Iraq, the U.S. alienated the Sunni Arabs, then co-opted them and then alienated them again, leading to civil war, the rise of Daesh and Iranian hegemony. #‎

Suffice it to say, there are things you can control and things you can't. Despite his antipathy for Trump, CrowBat took what he could get when the TLAMs struck Shayrat. To date, the FSA is still in the field and still using TOWs, and Russian tanks have not had a go at Kharkiv or Mariupol. #

If there is any issue, it is that SWC shouldn't be one of millions of forums for U.S. domestic politics or how Farage, Le Pen and Trump are all GRU agents sent to bring down NATO and the EU. #‎The election campaign has not stopped with the inauguration and it is tranquil to have a place where SMEs discuss wars.



I'm sorry you don't appreciate my cutting and pasting of your quotes: I do it for brevity and to respond to specific points only. #



We will miss your up-to-the-minute updates from the various fronts if perhaps less your anti-Trump and humanitarian interventionist op-eds. # For what it's worth, I preferred hearing about the major battles from you rather than the MSM. Just because the MSM appears to agree with you now does not mean that it won't move on in a few months; after all, it cares little for conflicts that are not part of domestic politics...

Regards,

Azor‎

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...actually you response deserves this one last response......

If you really are able to "see and understand" using my form of looking at the world from a ground reality....what we see today with the US political side and the sad performance of US MSM media even today actually which since the second election campaign of Bush and the Viacom takeover of say CBS...we are seeing the ultimate form of "corporate news"....and the dying of "true journalism as a profession"....

Go back and review the airing of the CBS 60 Minutes by Dan Reuther on the Air National Guard days of Bush which cost Reuther his job and the firing of the team on that segment....even though now we know the facts were accurate and correct.

Then look at the "Swift Boat" affair thrown at Kerry....which in reality was the really first "fakes news hit job" made in full public view and MSM did not even see it coming did it? instead they all piled on....

What I miss from a lot of commenters is in the inherent understanding of the intertwining of external FP....internal politics..... and ground reality....

Disinformation..propaganda...and fakes news though has undergone a major shift and has become a very hard "soft power" used by the Russians very effectively and still is against the US...and anyone that does not see that seriously heads their heads examined...

Example...MSM has been bashing Trump then he fires a "Wag the Dog" set of TLAMS and suddenly the same MSM that was bashing him praise him....."suddenly forgetting he is under suspicion of "collusion" to put it in FBI speak"...and just maybe the attack is a deflection...WHICH some are now starting to in fact say....

ALTHOUGH I have been posting the brutality of the Syrian war in full color for over two years...and where was MSM...nowhere to be seen....

If Americans do not fully understand the interconnectedness of this very small planet made possible by the internet and technology....they are in serous trouble as the world is getting far more complex...hourly not the previous weeks it might take under the older forms of communications.

How long did the debate on say even SWC go as it "is Syria even a strategic interest for the US when the answer was smack in your face and that daily as we see.....because now to resolve the entire ME set of issues the US must truly now resolve Syria..and that is strategic.....

Until Americans wake up and realize that there has truly never been a sitting President in the first 100 days come under FBI/CIA/NSA and seven European intel service investigations for "collusion"....the first word used in a treason case by the FBI..go back and check the terms used during the 50s treason cases..

You cannot now separate that from the ongoing total failure of any and I am serious anything that remotely looks like US FP.......

You can see that in the German reporting now coming out about the Us Merkel visit....

Trump asked her 11 times can the US do a trade deal with Germany...her response to him 11 times..."you cannot do it with us you must deal with the EU trade commission as it represents all EU members as a block...Trump then we will do it with the EU"..which he has constantly bashed....

Trump evidently finally realized that his stand on free trade is getting both him and US nothing as his own team has discovered EU will not do separate bilateral trade deals...and Merkel showed Trump that he had missed out on a free trade deal that had no tariffs and also 400M customers of potential US products...suddenly he showing interest in TTIP just as his team finally is fully understanding the failures in their backing out of TTP.

But again digression....all is interconnected politics national and international.....and Russia.....and that does include Trump.

Right now the only serious problem the US faces is a resurgent in your face Russia which is though in some aspects a "near peer competitor"....the next near peer competitor is China but that can in some aspects be handled with very good diplomacy as the Chinese definitely do not want a war they just want to be on the world's political stage as an equal co speaker due to their size..economy and power which is fine....

NK..deal directly and openly with it and it might surprise one...we have bashed them and bashed them into thinking we want their destruction...remember the "axis of evil speeches"...BTW I would think the same thing they do as well...

But Putin is a total different political animal...he does want the "destruction of the US" and right now cyber and information warfare are his tools....

So now I can pull back from posting.

In some aspects it is sad I cannot post a lot of our work on Russian botnets...it would shock the most devoted Trump voters in deep Iowa as well as yourself.

But in some aspects maybe not if one goes back to the Kerry's "Swiftboating incident".....and the actions of Karl Rove and his merry band....who really showed this generation of Trump white nationalists how to run a propaganda election based on fake news and disinformation...

BTW...take all the postings on Syria and Ukraine even those insignificant postings that you mention and you can build one great powerpoint briefing complete with battles...order of battle and air force capabilities and tie it straight into missed decisions made by the US WHs....historical research in near real time...never really seen before.

It then becomes a great analysis tool...I deliberately parked a number of posted comments strictly for historical reasons as I know some will come back to them in the future...

BTW...the perfect example of what I am pointing out on Trump...Trump's big thing is "currency manipulations" by China...EU and say Japan.....AND this threats to do something about it......

Japan's Aso pushes back on U.S. call for scrutiny of currency moves
http://reut.rs/2p8gcUg

BUT WOW..if one really takes a look at the US currency and how the Treasury Dept and the price of oil impacts the USD then Trump might in fact discover the US is the greatest currency manipulator going....

In theory the Euro should in fact be under the value of the USD...and sit around 80-90 cents to the US dollar...but due to US oil pricing it remains higher than that at a steady 1.06 to a real high of 1.35 per Euro.......

BUT behold..suddenly the Treasury is attempting to "talk down the USD" and it is settling now in the 1.04 to 1.06 ranges...

So the US accuses others of "currency manipulations" BUT "talking down" does not count????.....Trump's constant tax break comments is the ongoing "talking down effort".....but wait that does not count as currency manipulation...?

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....this is exactly why you cannot split right now Trump from anything and why it is important to understand his exact level of collusion with the Russians.......

French Twitter suffers barrage of incoming memes from Trump supporting accounts in US

We have been monitoring this intently since 6 this morning French time...BTW 26 of those so called proTrump accounts are being driven by Russian botnet control severs which we have clearly and concisely identified right now with their messaging first coming out of Russia to the US and then back into France...

Twitter bots & trolls that once supported Trump are now backing Marine Le Pen. What a coincidence.
http://www.politico.eu/article/marin...social-media/#

This is exactly why I am doing the work I now do....BUT this ongoing cyber/information trench warfare has to be normally done by governments...but the entire US government is currently MIA and it now falls on individuals and those organizations that truly care about democracy to engage and engage we have...

We are now in the process of shutting down those bot servers that have been identified this morning....and they sit deep in Russia....

This tells me that now there is no difference in Russian influence ops being carried out against the US and those who drive US right wing influence ops against European countries in support of Russian geo political goals...and that the entire US alt right social media is under Russia influence control.

NOW ALL one and the same (US alt right and Russian geo political end goals)....and that is totally new for US politics...

REMEMBER this Trump tweet from this week....when you see the US twitter info war which surged late yesterday and this early morning on French voters...

Donald J. Trump‏
@realDonaldTrump
Another terrorist attack in Paris. The people of France will not take much more of this. Will have a big effect on presidential election!

So did the US twitter barrage on French voters take their guidance directly from Trump's "tweet"?

There is now no difference between Russian info war actions and proTrump info war supporters.

BUT WAIT...he is one of the worst US alt right info warriors as he drives Infowars..deeply tied to Russian info war messaging and who is in the middle of a bad divorce fight.....being carried on social media

Under the rubric of "oh really now he gets it"....

“I urge the press to be respectful and responsible.” – Alex Jones, Literally Yesterday

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor...probably the biggest difference between you and myself is the simple fact...I use the concept of "indicators" and ground based personal experience to link items together...

When I tie Trump's tweets to the Russian 6Ds Propaganda Principles I use his tweets..."indicators" against the ground reality of Russian info warfare principle's...then I link the two...do they match...are they similar and WHY are they being used.....what is the intended goal....etc....

If say we see major heavy Russian infowar botnet propaganda activity before and after Brexit and we see the UK neo right wing party UKIP driving that propaganda and being supported by Russian infowar botnets AND then see their leader try to get into to see WikiLeaks Assage without being seen then one sees another "indicator"...which triggers the question WHY?

WHEN we suddenly see former UKIP leader Nigel at Trump Tower just after the election and we saw Nigel participating in Trump rallies and at the inaugural..these are indicators and the question of WHY must be immediately asked and answered....

This is probably the reason ....which I actually agree with.....

This Nigel and Julian meeting isn’t going to go away. US IC suspects him of being a human courier.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ulian-assange#

Especially important as Wikileaks was deeply involved in the Russian hacking and influence operations during the US election...

BTW....what will the Trump WH and his merry band of proRussians say about this today...especially since an American OSCE observer was deliberately killed by a Russian landmine

Will be interesting to see how/whether @StateDept and @WhiteHouse respond to death of American OSCE patrol member in Ukraine today.

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....this is exactly why you cannot split right now Trump from anything and why it is important to understand his exact level of collusion with the Russians.......

French Twitter suffers barrage of incoming memes from Trump supporting accounts in US

We have been monitoring this intently since 6 this morning French time...BTW 26 of those so called proTrump accounts are being driven by Russian botnet control severs which we have clearly and concisely identified right now with their messaging first coming out of Russia to the US and then back into France...

Twitter bots & trolls that once supported Trump are now backing Marine Le Pen. What a coincidence.
http://www.politico.eu/article/marin...social-media/#

This is exactly why I am doing the work I now do....BUT this ongoing cyber/information trench warfare has to be normally done by governments...but the entire US government is currently MIA and it now falls on individuals and those organizations that truly care about democracy to engage and engage we have...

We are now in the process of shutting down those bot servers that have been identified this morning....and they sit deep in Russia....

This tells me that now there is no difference in Russian influence ops being carried out against the US and those who drive US right wing influence ops against European countries in support of Russian geo political goals...and that the entire US alt right social media is under Russia influence control.

NOW ALL one and the same (US alt right and Russian geo political end goals)....and that is totally new for US politics...

REMEMBER this Trump tweet from this week....when you see the US twitter info war which surged late yesterday and this early morning on French voters...

Donald J. Trump‏
@realDonaldTrump
Another terrorist attack in Paris. The people of France will not take much more of this. Will have a big effect on presidential election!

So did the US twitter barrage on French voters take their guidance directly from Trump's "tweet"?

There is now no difference between Russian info war actions and proTrump info war supporters.

BUT WAIT...he is one of the worst US alt right info warriors as he drives Infowars..deeply tied to Russian info war messaging and who is in the middle of a bad divorce fight.....being carried on social media

Under the rubric of "oh really now he gets it"....

“I urge the press to be respectful and responsible.” – Alex Jones, Literally Yesterday

Quick survey sample from late yesterday....the most influential users within the Twitter networks tweeting about #JeVote Surprise, several are American pro-Trump accounts on this first pass.....

[OUTLAW 09]

JUST how many US Congresspeople are involved with Assad.....

Not entirely sure what U.S. Senator Dick Black @SenRichardBlack is doing in a Syrian Arab Air Force (SyAAF) Su-24MK2 but he is in it just before the Syrians recently dropped sarin gas...

[davidbfpo]

JUST how many US Congresspeople are involved with Assad.....Not entirely sure what U.S. Senator Dick Black @SenRichardBlack is doing in a Syrian Arab Air Force (SyAAF) Su-24MK2 but he is in it just before the Syrians recently dropped sarin gas...

This man is not a US Senator, he is a Virginia State Senator; which is quite different and fulfills what appears to me a state government role. A local newspaper commented:

State Sen. Richard H. Black, R-Loudoun, has traveled to Syria and promised support for the government of President Bashar Assad, who U.S. officials have repeatedly said has lost the legitimacy to rule the war-torn country.His trip to a Middle Eastern country in the midst of a civil war and his comments in the face of official U.S. foreign policy are highly unusual for a state lawmaker.
Black is a part-time state senator who has no official role in foreign affairs.

Link to story dated April 27th 2016:http://www.richmond.com/news/virgini...921aff11b.html

I did note on his website he has tweeted his endorsement of Marine Le Pen. His personal website:http://www.senatorblack.com/Default.aspx

Digging around I found this March 2017 radio interview, carried by the widely regarded British "fruitcake" David Icke website:https://www.davidicke.com/article/40...ear-war-russia

He has even been interviewed recently about CW use by Press TV, an Iranian outlet. See:http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2017/04...-Richard-Black