Syria in 2017 (January-April)

[OUTLAW 09]

Note that I didn't post this article because I necessarily agreed with it...

RE:

1. It seemed to me that the latest abortive ceasefire was never adhered to by either Damascus or Teheran, despite their supposed inclusion, and that this was merely a political stunt by Ankara and Moscow to embarrass the United States.

2. Agreed. In hindsight, the only faction capable of conquering Sunni Arab Syria and perhaps all of Syria, was Daesh. I say this strictly from the perspective of organization and resources (Iraqi manpower, eastern Syrian oil and gas), as Daesh's ideology was its own undoing. Now, I can't see any one faction succeeding, although there is a coalition of sorts between the secular or moderate Sunni Arabs and the Islamist ones, on the basis of oppression by Alawites and Shias on the one hand, and Kurds on the other. I doubt that the opposition will be able to mobilize enough undecided Christians and Druze, or turn those on Assad's side...

3. Also agreed. Assad couldn't hold both the cities and lock down the borders to prevent supplies aiding a rural insurgency.

4. Remember the "Pottery Barn rule"? I hope that Russia and Iran have been contributing to a reconstruction fund...

5. Which is why if he steps down, he will be offered asylum in Iran most likely.

6. There is no one capable of imposing a ceasefire in Syria in order for truth and reconciliation to begin, and certainly neither Iran nor Russia want to deal with the truth of the matter that Assad is dependent upon foreign support...

Azor.....seems we agreed across the board for a change....hope your slide into the New Year was great.

Here is the kicker....Russia has a standard battle tactic whether in eastern Ukraine or Syria......get the other side to talk and talk and talk and then get them into a ceasefire which usually they tend to try to hold to in order then to not be accused by Russia and often the US of violating the so called ceasefire.......

We see that right now in eastern Ukraine where Russia claimed a Christmas ceasefire BUT the attacks have been massive and often and the UAF has been attempting to hold to it...

The same thing for the FSA right now...for the first three days the FSA held strictly to the Russian/Turkish ceasefire while within hours Assad with support from Hezbollah and RuAF started immediately to attack FSA positions.

IF and this is a big IF...if Russia and Turkey were truly interested in holding the ceasefire.....both could simply bomb Hezbollah and Assad positons a few times and you would see a sudden stop of the attacks....

BUT here is the next kicker...Russian and Assad positions are the same...they both are interested in destroying FSA regardless of how sweetly Russia talks at the UN about peace in Syria....

REMEMBER it was the Russian Damascus Ambassador who before the Assad attack on Aleppo publicly stated in a major interview that Assad would not be attacking Aleppo and then surprise surprise Russian bombed and attacked as much as Assad Aleppo....

I call this Russian tactic....simply "the talking attack".........