Syria in 2017 (January-April)

[Azor]

Yes, the Kurds are disunited. So too are the “Arabs” or Arabized Levantines.

…the PKK is scoring big points in the West by emphasising its secular side, which Turks actually have as well (which is a much-ignored fact).

On the contrary, Turkey’s secular traditions are why it was regarded curiously as a “model Muslim democracy” following the end of military rule and its dalliance with the European Union. Quietly the West is looking for a replacement, and perhaps Tunisia will qualify after a few more years.

But, 20 years later Turkish democratically-elected Islamist government is 'not OK' when it fights the PKK - while this is still supported by Moscow and Damascus...

Well, Ankara has been fighting the PKK and PYD at the expense of the campaign against Daesh, which in Syria is reliant upon the YPG. Ideally, the West wants both Turkey and the PYD to focus on Daesh and the PKK to stand down.

Not exactly. Firstly, the Armenian genocide was the Ottoman government's systematic extermination of 1.5 million Armenian Christians. The same government was removed by Ataturk a few years later.

Interesting. Turkey is transformed from an empire into a republic and the Turkish nation and state are absolved of collective responsibility. That’s a neat trick. Someone should have told the Germans and Japanese. This sort of cognitive dissonance is more associated with Russians when confronted with the crimes committed by the Soviet Union. Nor was the genocide in the Congo Free State a Belgian crime, as Leopold II ruled it as a personal fiefdom…

Just for example, some say the Czarist Russia murdered more Jews in pogroms of the 19th Century, than Nazis did during the Holocaust (and, BTW, the Holocaust became 'possible' because so many Jews fled from Russia to Europe, due to pogroms).

Who says that? That’s a ridiculous assertion.

Most Jews had actually fled east and into the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which sheltered them from oppression to the west as well as the wars of religion following the Reformation. The worst Jewish suffering in Europe prior to the Shoah was at the hands of Ukrainian Cossacks in the 17th Century, which was insignificant compared to what the Germans would mete out in the 20th.

How many native Indians were murdered in genocide and ethnic cleansing by colonists in what later became the USA remains unknown and happily avoided topic until today.

There was cleansing but not genocide. The aboriginals cleansed European settlers, the Europeans cleansed them, and the aboriginals cleansed one another. After 1789, it was primarily a one-sided affair. The estimates used for aboriginal excess deaths at the hands of the British, French, Americans and Canadians always include victims of the Spanish in contemporary Mexico and Central America, where aboriginal populations in North America were mostly concentrated.

Not to mention what various European colonial powers were doing to native people of Africa, Asia etc. over the last six centuries...Similarly, nobody can say how many Arabs were killed by Jews and various of their Western allies since the Westerners helped Jews impose their rule over the Palestinians.

Any other topics we can cover before we return to Turkey? I thought your soft spot was for Sunni Arabs, but now Turks are included. No discussion of South Asians or Africans, however.

On the contrary, the death toll of Arab and Palestinian civilians at Jewish and Israeli hands is fairly well-known. Most of the casualties inflicted by the Israelis were combatants.

…singling Turkey out makes very little sense in the World full of such stories...

The point is that the Turks – not unlike the Russians – have difficulty with their history and collective responsibility, and that the lack of reconstruction, truth and reconciliation or merely free and open debate, informs the actions of the Turkish state today.

...which is actually little surprising considering precisely those who act as if they would be in a position to teach everybody else how to deal with such history, have a history based on ethnic cleansing and mass murder

Such as who?

If you are referring to me personally, I would tell that you that I do not question your knowledge of various MENA air forces and air defense systems, and when it comes to dealing with “such history”, you should be aware that it is my sandbox.

Wrong. The experience from what happened in northern Iraq is a brilliant illustration for the fact that Turkey is very much ready to accept Kurdish-ruled areas - if these do not support the PKK.

I don’t agree. Such good relations didn’t occur in an altruistic vacuum.

Neither wanted the West to have to choose sides, and it served both sides’ purposes. The PKK exists because Turkey does not want Kurdish self-determination in Turkey, and that includes by way of regional autonomy. It was not difficult to accept a KRG in Iraq that did not involve the Turkish state losing any control, and that was a rival to the PKK. Turkey would have had to confront the both the U.S. and Europe in order to snuff out the KRG, and the KRG would have been utterly foolish to attempt to liberate Turkish Kurds.

Speaking of Turkish Kurds, when the AKP began losing ground in the polls prior to the June 2015 election, “Daesh” conveniently bombed a HDP rally just days before.

And overall, I simply do not understand why everybody's interests are OK, just Turkish interests are…'not OK'

I never claimed that Turkey’s interests were “not OK” and that the PKK’s are. I understand Kurdish separatism in Turkey and I understand the perceived need for war with Turkey. That does not mean that I support a separate Kurdish state as opposed to regional autonomy, or that I support the PKK.

Turkey has done some good, such as supporting millions of Syrian refugees and the Free Syrian Army. It has also acted immorally, by allowing Daesh recruits to flow through to Syria, by using Syrian refugees to extort Europe, by obstructing anti-Daesh operations, and by doing nothing as Daesh attacked Kurdish villages and towns along its border, such as Kobane. Erdogan has acted in part as a defender of Sunnis facing Shia oppression in Iraq and Syria, when other Sunni leaders were doing little or nothing, but he also harbors his own imperial ambitions.

You think that's absurd? I doubt you know why.

You seem to be attempting to get a rise out of me by changing topics to other hemispheres. Perhaps you are barking up the wrong tree. You do recall what happens when you assume, no? It all revolves around the “u”.

The United Front/Northern Coalition was no terrorist organization, but a movement widely supported by the local population; Taliban were a Pakistani creation financed by the Saudis; and - as 'thanks' for creating all the brawl in Afghanistan, I guess - Pakistan was then declared a 'most important non-NATO ally' by the USA... Get serious, please.

I said “Kurds” not “PKK”.

As for Pakistan, it was a case of keeping one’s adversaries close, particularly if one needed to ensure that that adversary’s nuclear weapons were secure.

…why is the USA then not supporting the Free Syrian Army...?

Because the FSA’s priority would be to defeat pro-Assad forces, involve the U.S. in regime change – albeit the Syrian state has long since collapsed – and possibly burden the U.S. with occupation and reconstruction, while Daesh is still in the field. If Iran were not Assad’s primary backer, the U.S. could orchestrate a palace coup d’état for an Alawi leader content with an Alawi rump state. If the U.S. turns on the arms spigot to the FSA, Iran will simply intervene with regular forces. Remember Colin Powell’s Pottery Barn rule…

[CrowBat]

Well, Ankara has been fighting the PKK and PYD at the expense of the campaign against Daesh.,..

No. Ankara was - for years - negotiating with the PKK, while at the same time calling for the USA and others of its Western allies to help it solve the situation in Syria. For years. In 2011, in 2012, in 2013, in 2014 etc.

The West refused, and - and against any logic - continued to ignore the situation in Syria even when millions of Syrians poured over the border into Turkey, an then continued pushing further west and north, putting the Turkish economy under immense strain.

And when this was not enough, the West ignored the Russians exporting at least 25.000 of their Wahhabists to Syria, where these joined the Daesh and Nusra - both of which came into being foremost thanks to the Assad regime.

And when that was not enough, the West - but the USA in particular - started acting as if Assad regime is entirely irrelevant, as if there is no popular uprising nor 'civil war' in Syria, as if there is no Iranian military intervention in Syria, and as if Turkey should neither have its own national interests inside Turkey, nor for its neighbourhood.

And when that was not enough, the US military - violating US laws - entered cooperation with the PKK, while using bases inside Turkey.

And when that was not enough, the Turks were told to shut up and tolerate the PKK, to shut up and tolerate 4 millions of Syrian refugees inside Turkey - and then also accused of cooperation with Nusra and Daesh, and this despite perfect clarity that Erdogan and his AKP are on the list of enemies of these two (visible also through the fact that the elements of Turkish society that do cooperate with the HTS, for example, stand in opposition to the AKP).

So, now replace 'Turkey' with 'USA' - or any other nation coming to your mind - and then tell me: who to hell would've tolerated that any more?

Interesting. Turkey is transformed from an empire into a republic and the Turkish nation and state are absolved of collective responsibility. That’s a neat trick.

No, it is not. The blame for genocide of Armenians is on Turkey and Turks, no doubt about this. And, sooner or later, they'll accept their responsibility.

It's just a piss-poor excuse, misused for demonizing Turkey and completely ignoring Turkish interests. An act that's ruining relations between the West and that country for decades in advance.

Now tell me, please: in whose interest is that?

Who says that? That’s a ridiculous assertion.

sigh... Do I really have to waste even more time with discussing that topic further in-depth, too...?

Get yourself at least 'Arabs and Israelis for Dummies', and read: everything is nicely based on documentation.

There was cleansing but not genocide. The aboriginals cleansed European settlers...

'Aborigines' - in the USA...? Well, thanks for a reminder, but I didn't even try to add them to the equation.

Any other topics we can cover before we return to Turkey? I thought your soft spot was for Sunni Arabs...

And you were wrong with thinking that way. My soft spot is humanity and freedom, and opposition to any kind of oppression. It just so happens that some of Sunni Arabs are between plenty of other people who are opressed.

But then, that's something you don't think about, and thus can't understand me.

On the contrary, the death toll of Arab and Palestinian civilians at Jewish and Israeli hands is fairly well-known. Most of the casualties inflicted by the Israelis were combatants.

Oh, but 'sure'...

The point is that the Turks – not unlike the Russians – have difficulty with their history and collective responsibility...

Wrong. Their governments have such problems, because both of them need chauvinists to keep themselves in power.

Such as who?

Are you the government of the USA...? Any of European governments? At least representative for any such bodies...?

Not reading carefully or just taking things too personally?

Either way, I've got no time for that. So, just one more point:

Because the FSA’s priority would be to defeat pro-Assad forces

... What's wrong with that?

...involve the U.S. in regime change – albeit the Syrian state has long since collapsed – and possibly burden the U.S. with occupation and reconstruction...

Who told you that?

...while Daesh is still in the field.

Aha, and what was first, FSyA or the Daesh?

I mean: is it too much to ask you to at least pay attention at the chronology, i.e. the time-line?

Are you really that poor at 'connecting dots' as to fail to understand that the Daesh could've been easily prevented by supporting the FSyA and removing Assad on time?

If Iran were not Assad’s primary backer, the U.S. could orchestrate a palace coup d’état for an Alawi leader content with an Alawi rump state.

...which wold change absolutely nothing.

But then, it's meanwhile typical for you - yes, this time: 'for you' - to be unable to think beyond, 'replacing one dictator of the minority through another dictator from the same minory'.

If the U.S. turns on the arms spigot to the FSA, Iran will simply intervene with regular forces.

What 'regular forces', PLEASE?

Azor, would you like to tell me, you've really got not even that much clue about the Syrian civil war as to know a) it's not the Iranian military, but the IRGC - indeed: IRGC-QF - that's responsible for such Iranian operations like the one in Syria, b) this IRGC-QF deployed its first two 'regular' (IRGC) brigades to Syria already in 2012, and c) that Iran is running a full-blown military intervention in Syria at least since early 2013?

If so, sorry, but we need not discussing this topic until you inform yourself properly.

[CrowBat]

Major battle erupted inside the besieged insurgent-held pocket of Eastern Ghouta, on the south-eastern frindge of Damascus.

The reported developments are leaving me almost at lack of words. I'm lacking time to sort all of reports and extract the most important details, thus here 'just a collection of links' - from all possible kind of sources. The first two are Twitter-threads with plenty of details (I know, some might appear not particularly reliable, but check the content first and before gauging, please):

https://twitter.com/NatDefFor/status/858096591848308739

https://twitter.com/ModerateLoomis/s...06876034961408

...map, apparently showing the original control over the western part of Eastern Gouta by the FAR and the JAI:
https://twitter.com/ModerateLoomis/s...06876034961408

...video, purportedly showing the JAI opening fire at protesting civilians:
https://twitter.com/NatDefFor/status/858054735563280384

SOHR's report citing 74 KIA (for yesterday only):
https://twitter.com/syriahr/status/858372017262927872

...then over 90 within the first 48 hours:
https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/stat...15936688963588

JAI captures most of the Aftris from the FAR (Faylaq ar-Rahman, an FSyA-offshot):
https://twitter.com/raedsyrian002/st...66867165114369

...HTS confirms 30+ casualties, JAI 20+, FAR ditto:
https://twitter.com/C_Military1/stat...82320477945856

JAI's statement:
https://twitter.com/jaishalislam/sta...27552373506050

...and another one, about 'extermination' of 'HTS' in Eastern Ghouta:
https://twitter.com/jaishalislam/sta...27552373506050

JAI besieging the FAR - thus leaving its units in Qaboun without food:
https://twitter.com/middleeastwars/s...81132269424640

The regime exploiting the situation for its own advance:
https://twitter.com/watanisy/status/858372757469483008

...smoke from infighting in Ghouta visible all the way to Almazza:
https://twitter.com/raedsyrian002/st...61894368931840

Overall picture seems to be as follows. There are two versions:

- The HTS says that on Friday, 28 April, a group of fighters arrived at a JAI checkpoint in East Ghouta... according to the HTS, some of the people in question were taken captive and then executed. HTS further claims that their headquarters were surrounded by JAI. Supposedly, the HTS was then put under sniper fire, which in turn hit some civilians too. According to the HTS, the JAI then broke into a number of homes, civilians were shot and/or beaten, and more civilians killed when they protested on the streets. Finally, the HTS was given 24 hours to exit the Eastern Ghouta.

- The JAI says the HTS consistently harassed convoys headed to fight against the regime in Damascus (a claim that HTS has made against JAI). Supposedly, they attempted to negotiate, but to no avail. Eventually, the JAI went into action. Today they released a separate statement which is particularly aggressive in its tune against the HTS: this is called a 'criminal faction', said it's going to be treated without any mercy, and anybody who distances from it is welcome.

Meanwhile, the JAI seems to run an 'extermination campaign' - against the HTS, foremost, but that of the FAR too.

Curiously, both of them have left the FAR out of their exchange - although the leader of the FAR was assassinated by the JAI, and a number of FAR fighters killed too.

[OUTLAW 09]

Rebels fired 65 #ATGM|s in April, highest since Summer 2016
- 75% in #Hama
- 89% are #TOW
- 38% by #FSA Jaish Izza
- 36% targets are armours

Clear footage from #Lataminah this morning.
#Assad's #BarrelBombs rain on the #Hama province town.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7NwxQaDxok#…

Towns in #Hama province are hit by massive #AssadPutin terror attacks - also over the past hours.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNvcOn9QuPA#…

Damascus: Rebels have killed #Assad Major Mohammed Jalal Merhi in besieged #Qaboun.

[OUTLAW 09]

@CJTFOIR / #US forces guarding the funeral of a #YPG/#PKK terrorist, killed by @NATO ally Turkey in N Syria.
See PKK&calan flags.

Imagine if those were, say, Hamas or Hizballah flags there. Think there'd be US political reaction to presence of US forces at the funeral?

In order to meet short-term objective of “defeating” #ISIS, the U.S has thrown itself into the middle of a 40-yr #Turkey-#PKK conflict.

This US-#YPG-#SDF-#Turkey-FSA business in N. #Syria is a **mess.**
Totally avoidable.
&
Totally predictable.
… And it will get worse.

Just watch & wait to see how the U.S. must now “own” what it’s created -- repeatedly using troops as peacekeepers & human shields in #Syria.

Remind me which part of the 2001 AUMF lets troops be trip wire peacekeepers between Turkey, Assad and the YPG.

IMPORTANT
Turkey apparently displeased U.S. troops at events with #PKK flags
http://v.aa.com.tr/808493#
says, "We may come overnight" against PYD/PKK.

[OUTLAW 09]

@CJTFOIR / #US forces guarding the funeral of a #YPG/#PKK terrorist, killed by @NATO ally Turkey in N Syria.
See PKK&calan flags.

Imagine if those were, say, Hamas or Hizballah flags there. Think there'd be US political reaction to presence of US forces at the funeral?

In order to meet short-term objective of “defeating” #ISIS, the U.S has thrown itself into the middle of a 40-yr #Turkey-#PKK conflict.

This US-#YPG-#SDF-#Turkey-FSA business in N. #Syria is a **mess.**
Totally avoidable.
&
Totally predictable.
… And it will get worse.

Just watch & wait to see how the U.S. must now “own” what it’s created -- repeatedly using troops as peacekeepers & human shields in #Syria.

Remind me which part of the 2001 AUMF lets troops be trip wire peacekeepers between Turkey, Assad and the YPG.

IMPORTANT
Turkey apparently displeased U.S. troops at events with #PKK flags
http://v.aa.com.tr/808493#
says, "We may come overnight" against PYD/PKK.

Russia always liked PKK option generally: an old ally, gains de facto co-op with US. A quick run at Raqqa prob reverts to Assad control.

RT‏
Verified account
#Russia ‘fully ready’ to cooperate with US on Syria, 'count on Washington to demonstrate the same approach' - Lavrov
https://on.rt.com/8abm

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....that Trump redline is crossed again is it not.....AND the Trump TLAMs will not be far away will they...?????

BREAKING
Victims of #SAA terrorists barrel bombs filled with Toxic Gas over #Maar_Keba
#Hama cs #Syria Apr 30

Reports of suffocation

[OUTLAW 09]

Major battle erupted inside the besieged insurgent-held pocket of Eastern Ghouta, on the south-eastern frindge of Damascus.

The reported developments are leaving me almost at lack of words. I'm lacking time to sort all of reports and extract the most important details, thus here 'just a collection of links' - from all possible kind of sources. The first two are Twitter-threads with plenty of details (I know, some might appear not particularly reliable, but check the content first and before gauging, please):

https://twitter.com/NatDefFor/status/858096591848308739

https://twitter.com/ModerateLoomis/s...06876034961408

...map, apparently showing the original control over the western part of Eastern Gouta by the FAR and the JAI:
https://twitter.com/ModerateLoomis/s...06876034961408

...video, purportedly showing the JAI opening fire at protesting civilians:
https://twitter.com/NatDefFor/status/858054735563280384

SOHR's report citing 74 KIA (for yesterday only):
https://twitter.com/syriahr/status/858372017262927872

...then over 90 within the first 48 hours:
https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/stat...15936688963588

JAI captures most of the Aftris from the FAR (Faylaq ar-Rahman, an FSyA-offshot):
https://twitter.com/raedsyrian002/st...66867165114369

...HTS confirms 30+ casualties, JAI 20+, FAR ditto:
https://twitter.com/C_Military1/stat...82320477945856

JAI's statement:
https://twitter.com/jaishalislam/sta...27552373506050

...and another one, about 'extermination' of 'HTS' in Eastern Ghouta:
https://twitter.com/jaishalislam/sta...27552373506050

JAI besieging the FAR - thus leaving its units in Qaboun without food:
https://twitter.com/middleeastwars/s...81132269424640

The regime exploiting the situation for its own advance:
https://twitter.com/watanisy/status/858372757469483008

...smoke from infighting in Ghouta visible all the way to Almazza:
https://twitter.com/raedsyrian002/st...61894368931840

Overall picture seems to be as follows. There are two versions:

- The HTS says that on Friday, 28 April, a group of fighters arrived at a JAI checkpoint in East Ghouta... according to the HTS, some of the people in question were taken captive and then executed. HTS further claims that their headquarters were surrounded by JAI. Supposedly, the HTS was then put under sniper fire, which in turn hit some civilians too. According to the HTS, the JAI then broke into a number of homes, civilians were shot and/or beaten, and more civilians killed when they protested on the streets. Finally, the HTS was given 24 hours to exit the Eastern Ghouta.

- The JAI says the HTS consistently harassed convoys headed to fight against the regime in Damascus (a claim that HTS has made against JAI). Supposedly, they attempted to negotiate, but to no avail. Eventually, the JAI went into action. Today they released a separate statement which is particularly aggressive in its tune against the HTS: this is called a 'criminal faction', said it's going to be treated without any mercy, and anybody who distances from it is welcome.

Meanwhile, the JAI seems to run an 'extermination campaign' - against the HTS, foremost, but that of the FAR too.

Curiously, both of them have left the FAR out of their exchange - although the leader of the FAR was assassinated by the JAI, and a number of FAR fighters killed too.

CrowBat...agree about the infighting....

Crazy infighting in E #Ghouta now: 120+ killed in 2 days, so far.
Jaish al-Islam launched assaults on #HTS; Faylaq al-Rahman now involved.

This is just the latest flare up, resulting from Jaish al-Islam fearing rivals (#HTS this time) seek to undermine its dominance in #Ghouta.

Such infighting - bred by competition over resources & sociopolitical authority - is exacerbated by #Assad's ongoing siege on #Ghouta areas.

[OUTLAW 09]

Sipan Hemo, YPG Commander, states discussions ongoing for deployment of Russian forces at two more points in Efrn.