Syria in 2017 (January-April)

[CrowBat]

I meant that in a very loose sense. Russia has difficulty playing with others in the kindergarten so it doesn’t have much in the way of friends. Syria was a friend of Iran’s but it was certainly friendly toward Russia, and was part of the ad hoc authoritarian axis that allegedly resists "American imperialism", or more accurately, the spread of liberal democracy.

Oh man, Azor... do I really have to waste even more time with this....

After Gorbachev stopped the military cooperation with Syria, and stopped all the arms deliveries too, in 1988, Damascus stopped paying all debts to the USSR, rumoured at between US15 and 17 billion. From 1988 until today, Syrians didn't pay a single cent of that debt back to Moscow.

For 10 years, from 2000 until 2011, Rosobornexport was literaly besieging the HQ of the SyAAF in order to secure orders. In 2001, they've sent a pair of Su-27s for Syrian for flight testing; five years later they've sponsored a huge, 15x4 metres big banner showing two Su-30s that was hung above the entry to the very same HQ; in 2007, they've sponsored live firing exercise for a big group of Syrian pilots in Russia, etc. Russians are really the last to make presents, but Syrians just didn't move. All of this was without any kind of success.

Then Putin wrote off 50% of the Syrian debt - and what did he get in return? In 2008, Damascus cancelled all - and I mean: every single one - oil/gas and construction contracts signed with Moscow. Instead, he signed contracts with Chinese, Canadian and whatever other companies. Immediately afterwards, Assad ordered 33 second-hand MiG-23s from Belarus.

And through all of this time, Moscow didn't once make any kind of use of that 'base' in Tartous. Not one ship stopped there, not one replenished, not one was repaired or else.

In essence, and in summary: for 23 years - from 1988 until 2001 - military cooperation between Syria and Moscow was exactly this: 0.

And shall I now talk about earlier times? Kweres and Jirrah ABs were constructed by Poles, Homs Military Academy by Czechoslovaks (who also had 10-15 professors teaching there for most of the 1960s and 1970s)... and it's long since I've lost the count of stories about Syrian officers having fistfights with their Soviet advisors (one even pistol-slaped one in the face) from the two periods during which there was any kind of a serious military cooperation (namely 1973-1975 and 1982-1988).

But nah: Syria is a Russian 'client state'...?

Surely enough, it is one: in the minds of drunken Russian nationalists, and those of clueless Westerners.

Proof?

Proof of what? How often have the Russians violated the airspace of any NATO country with their IFF-transponders off since that ROE was introduced, back in 2015? How do you provide proofs for 0?

Military affairs and wars? That is curious, because both you and Outlaw seem to believe that you know what was going on behind closed doors in Obama’s National Security Council and that you understand Putin’s intentions.

Well, one problem people like you have is this: you do not understand that people are talking, no matter in what positions they are. Even those with highest possible security clearances are doing that.

Indeed, such especially - and foremost when asking for advice.

And regarding Putler: 2+2 is 4. Always, and no matter from what side you try it.

Sure, paid PR-clowns like Kujat (or take any of Putler's puppets in the USA, if you prefer) can appear on the TV and try to explain that 2+2 is 5, as often as they like, but 2+2 remains 4.

And because 2+2 is always 4, it's simply silly to insinuate whatever kind of 'what ifs' about a country with the GNP of Spain and its ability to challenge the USA in an open military confrontation. Even more so in an area 2000 kilometres away from its borders, where it has NO bases, nor even any true allies.

So OSINT on military capabilities and activities is now the same as politics and intent?

... this is leaving me at lack of words.

I'll expand my statement in which I expressed my expectation that people visiting forums of this kind should have at least the most basic understanding of military affairs: people trying to discuss such topics should also have the bare understanding of other people's abilities to inform themselves and 'connect the dots', too.

Like I said above: 2+2 is 4. Always. So, if you would spend less time trying to discuss what ifs that belong within realms of science fiction, and instead trying to track Russian military activities, study their training, their equipment, strategy, tactics and doctrine, and then do so for years, perhaps even decades, then you would be in a position to draw logical conclusions not only about Russian military activities, but their military capabilities and intentions too.

In such case, yes: OSINT is perfectly enough to draw perfectly useful conclusions. Thanks for asking.

Alright, I’ll play.

• Assad’s air force is grounded, and he goes back to relying on his ground forces

• buzzzzz... Assad's air force is grounded, and he realizes he's left without troops to continue the war - which is why Iran launched its military intervention in Syria, in 2012. So what?
  
  

• Moscow and Teheran decide that U.S.-supported regime change is imminent