Syria in 2017 (January-April)

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Syrian Express....

Supposedly Haifa-bound but going to #Tartus #Syria , Russia flag Ro-Ro Alexandr Tkachenko transited Bosphorus carrying military trucks

[Azor]

Azor...seems we agreed across the board for a change...hope your slide into the New Year was great.

And you as wel!

Here is the kicker...Russia has a standard battle tactic whether in eastern Ukraine or Syria...get the other side to talk and talk and talk and then get them into a ceasefire which usually they tend to try to hold to in order then to not be accused by Russia and often the US of violating the so called ceasefire...

I would say that the Russian ceasefires, as evident in Ukraine and now Syria, are seen by the Russians as a form of conditional surrender. Russia is amenable to these ceasefires only when its adversary is losing, and offers them when it is close to winding down its participation in the conflict, having achieved most of its objectives.

None of the ceasefire talks in question convinced an adversary to delay or abort what would have been a successful offensive; they are not ruses of war. Rather, these ceasefires mark the beginning of Russia consolidating its gains.

We see that right now in eastern Ukraine where Russia claimed a Christmas ceasefire BUT the attacks have been massive and often and the UAF has been attempting to hold to it...

In this case, Russia is deterring Ukraine from launching an offensive, which would be reported as violating the ceasefire. Ukraine is in no position to make major gains against the insurgents, without a devastating response from Russia.

Unfortunately, the Russians not making a drive for Mariupol-Odessa-Transnistria and living with the daily fire from the insurgents are the best that Ukraine can hope for currently.

Since when does Russia believe in fair ceasefires?

The same thing for the FSA right now...for the first three days the FSA held strictly to the Russian/Turkish ceasefire while within hours Assad with support from Hezbollah and RuAF started immediately to attack FSA positions.

I gather that the Iranian-led forces broke the ceasefire first, presumably because Teheran and Damascus believe that all of Syria can be reconquered, whereas Moscow would not be unhappy with a friendly Alawite enclave in Latakia.

IF and this is a big IF...if Russia and Turkey were truly interested in holding the ceasefire...both could simply bomb Hezbollah and Assad positons a few times and you would see a sudden stop of the attacks...

If Turkey did not intervene against the Assadists prior to Russia’s intervention, why would they do so now?

BUT here is the next kicker...Russian and Assad positions are the same...they both are interested in destroying FSA regardless of how sweetly Russia talks at the UN about peace in Syria…

REMEMBER it was the Russian Damascus Ambassador who before the Assad attack on Aleppo publicly stated in a major interview that Assad would not be attacking Aleppo and then surprise surprise Russian bombed and attacked as much as Assad Aleppo....

I call this Russian tactic...simply "the talking attack"...

I see this as private disagreement among the participants in the Assadist coalition, that is manifested in contradictory public statements and military actions.

I gathered from CrowBat’s commentary that the Syrians were flying almost all of the missions over Aleppo city while the Russians were concentrating elsewhere…

Regardless, Putin’s had his small war but Iran isn’t finished, so a smooth operator would exploit their differences…

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....we differ on the true Russian response if push comes to shove....

In this case, Russia is deterring Ukraine from launching an offensive, which would be reported as violating the ceasefire. Ukraine is in no position to make major gains against the insurgents, without a devastating response from Russia.

Right now yes the Russians use their own mercenaries to agitate in eastern Ukraine and to conduct direct ground offensives...supply the tanks....ammo and fuel for those attacks......

BUT check the last Russian planned mercenary led offensive in the Svitlodarsk salient....a total failure and high loses on the Russian side.....

The UAF had picked up intel wise a large Russian military buildup in the area aimed at taking more "Minsk 2 grey zone territory" and basically ran a major ground offensive first taking the area from under the noses of the Russians and then defended it successfully.

While the fighting was truly heavy the Russians said not a single word....and tried to get their so called Christmas ceasefire in place to stop UAF actions.....

With every major Russian mercenary heavy ground attack in 2016....they basically went nowhere and the mercenary loses are now always high.

What many forget in 2014 when the Russian local separatists mad their moves to take Donbass...the UAF basically a low quality ill trained and equipped force starting to actually defeat the separatists and were on the verge of actually winning militarily....THEN the Russian military started massive cross border artillery attacks using everything in their artillery up to 152mm and BM21/BM27/BM30s and tactical missiles....

AND when that did not slow down UAF they opted for a Russian army ground invasion....

UAF has been basically totally rebuilt...rearmed and is now quite capable of defending itself and launching quickly large scale ground offensives when the opportunity presents itself......

Ukraine has largely held back attempting this because the IMF loan requirements indicates their loans cannot be made to a country at or in a "war".....and IMF then rewrote the regs to include the current fighting in eastern Ukraine as "not a war" in order to make the loans...

AND at the same time to appease the EU for Association Status and visa free travel......

UAF though does now have the capacity to go full out on the offensive and the Russians know it and do not want to risk an all out war.....when sanctions are hurting them badly....

BTW...all current Russian agreements and ceasefires are strictly as you point out..."for show only"....

Take their OPEC agreement made with great fanfare across the globe.....Russian oil figures released today indicate the Russians are pumping oil at a level never seen in the last five years....AND surprise there has been no cut back only production increases AFTER the so called OPEC agreements......in this case the Russians were trying to drive up the oil prices above 50 USDs which their announcement did in fact achieve as we are at now a price of 55 USDs...but slowly sinking again....but at least they get an earning bounce for their short fall budget....

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria Regime dropped 4 Chlorine gas bombs on Barada Valley villages in western #Damascus

[OUTLAW 09]

Highly recommended reading here on the Idlib situation in comparison with Aleppo:
https://twitter.com/AbuJamajem/statu...0906857865216#

Syria Reports: Shiite militias from #Iraq gathering at border for assault on huge Omar oil field btw #Hasaka & Euphrates river

[OUTLAW 09]

Number of TSK soldiers deployed for al-Bab to increase to 8,000 (up from 3,000). Three garrisons to be built inside.
http://m.yenisafak.com/dunya/8-bin-a...liyor-2591721#

Car bombs in regime-held #Jableh (left pix) & opposition-held #Azaz (right pix) kill & injure dozens.

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria First proof that #YPG control Jaber castle in #Assad reservoir
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...1073&z=15&m=b#