Syria in 2017 (January-April)

[OUTLAW 09]

SOHR Clashes on #Damascus – #Homs highway and in the eastern outskirts of Damascus

Warplanes kill 6 persons at least in a village east of #Hama and shelling on #Daraa city

Explosion in town at #Qameshly countryside &shelling targets the outskirts of #Aleppo and clashes north of it

ISIS was able to repel regime forces’ attempt to advance near #T4 airbase, causes casualties&injuries #Homs

[OUTLAW 09]

This article reinforces what CrowBat recently posted on this subject....

Iran repopulates Syria with Shia Muslims to help tighten regime's control

New communities are settling in areas where Sunnis have fled or been forced out as Tehran seeks an arc of control stretching from its borders to Israel

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ease-influence

In the valleys between Damascus and Lebanon, where whole communities had abandoned their lives to war, a change is taking place. For the first time since the conflict broke out, people are starting to return.
But the people settling in are not the same as those who fled during the past six years.
The new arrivals have a different allegiance and faith to the predominantly Sunni Muslim families who once lived there. They are, according to those who have sent them, the vanguard of a move to repopulate the area with Shia Muslims not just from elsewhere in Syria, but also from Lebanon and Iraq.
The population swaps are central to a plan to make demographic changes to parts of Syria, realigning the country into zones of influence that backers of Bashar al-Assad, led by Iran, can directly control and use to advance broader interests. Iran is stepping up its efforts as the heat of the conflict starts to dissipate and is pursuing a very different vision to Russia, Assad’s other main backer.

In articles that I published as early as 2007/2008 I have been talking about the Khomeini expressed dream of the "Green Crescent".....Shia controlled areas ranging from Pakistan over AFG....Iran....Iraq....Syria and on into Lebanon....

WELL Obama made it possible and Trump will contribute even more to that "Green Crescent"....

Got laughed at every single time....

[OUTLAW 09]

...and surprising, too. The 1st Coastal is supposed to be supported by Turkey, and Turkey is supposed to be the primary force behind this 'drive to unite'.

If they 'fell out', then... why?

There is some discontentment among some of the groups even in the Turkish sponsored ones about the role of Turkey and Russia after the fall of Aleppo......some feel that turkey has basically sold them out for Turkish main interests.....meaning they have "sold out Sunni's"....although Sunni themselves.....

[OUTLAW 09]

DeirEzzor: #Assad regime child soldiers in #DeirEzzor.

DeirEzzor: #ISIS has killed the #Assad Brigadier General Ali Fares in #DeirEzzor. He is from #Jableh, #Latakia Province.

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria Last night #Russia & #Assad regime dropped all kinds of bombs on the #DeirEzzor cementery (Cluster bombs, incendiary ammo etc)

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia attacks credibility of UN-OPCW panel co-created by Russia to identify Syrian CW users, after it fingers Assadhttp://tass.com/politics/925365

[Azor]

CSIS Panel: Russia's Intervention in Syria: Lessons Learned (January 13, 2017)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtCYXk9R95I

Panelists:

1. Ruslan Pukhov – Director, Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, Moscow
2. Michael Kofman – Global Fellow, Kennan Institute at the Wilson Center, Washington, D.C.

On Russia’s adventure in Syria

Pukhov:

• The Russian Navy has undergone “Kalibr-zation” given that the use of sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles was deemed a major success
• Rather than relying upon elite pilots, the Russian Air Force has rotated as many pilots as possible (50%) to Syria for training and experience
• Collateral damage has been caused by the fact that Russian bombs, both smart and dumb, are too heavy (500 lbs or more)
• Basically, Russia will take a second look at the US SDB and smaller ordnance for urban situations
• There was also difficulty hitting moving targets from the air, and often pilots had to simply ignore them
• A major problem has been a lack of targeting intelligence, which apparently plagued France and Italy during Operation Odyssey Dawn
• Initially, the Russians relied upon Israeli targeting intelligence and then sourced it from Iran
• Russia is very concerned about the challenged posed by “lean and mean” air forces such as those fielded by Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands
• Overall, the Russians assess that their use of PGMs/smart weapons is on par with Operation Desert Storm, and they recognize that they are 20-years behind
• Russia relied upon Israeli-supplied UAVs, but US pressure has cut off that supply
• The Wagner Group is not a PMC “in the Western sense”, but a “hybrid” organization channeling “people outside of the regular military who wish to fight”
• Russia has had no experience working with allies, and coordinating with the Syrians, Iranians and Iraqis (he specifically mentions Hezbollah and Quds) was “invaluable”

Kofman:

• Very few PGMs were used, and those that were weren’t precise
• The SVP-24 only improves accuracy at low altitudes, but MANPADs forced the Russians to fly at medium or high altitudes
• Primarily, Russia is relying upon 1950s-era dumb bombs, even from the Tu-22s which were launched with only a 25% loadout
• There were no accidents with the fixed-wing assets of the air force, but various helicopters “fell out of the sky”, especially the Mi-28
• 3-4 Russian naval aircraft were lost off the Kuznetsov
• The “Syrian Express” relied upon LSTs 25-50-years old, but bringing in commercial transport was a useful adaptation
• 50-100 Russians were killed who were part of PMCs, including Wagner
• Russia still lacks domestic UAV capabilities
• Russia was able to produce sortie rates on par with the US-led coalition in Iraq and Syria
• “What percentage of the time did the Russian Air Force actually know what it was hitting? That’s very debatable…”
• The breakdown of allied coordination at Palmyra was embarrassing as was the diplomatic furor over the brief use of Iran’s Hamadan Air Base. However, working with allies is difficult even if they speak the same language and use similar equipment

Other Comments of Interest

Pukhov:

• Russia’s main lessons have been learned in Ukraine not Syria
• Russia undertook “5 waves of mobilization” to intervene in Ukraine, and the poor results necessitated changing the structure of the army (e.g. the reactivated divisions)
• The “return of Crimea” was a return to normalcy ("macro-historical norm")
• The desire of Yeltsin and then Putin initially for Russia to be a partner of the West was an aberration, which the Americans dismissed out of hand (especially Robert Gates, who Pukhov had admired)
• “Putin’s speech at Munich in 2007 was a cry from the soul…he said in 2001 why not be in NATO? He thought the same as Yeltsin, but thought that he could do it smarter and better…”
• “Kaliningrad was largely de-militarized and our main concern was Islamism in Algeria…”
• Now, Kaliningrad is militarized, and Russia fears regime change from the West and to a lesser extent conflict with Japan over the Kuriles or with China, however, there is a bias toward the European theater

Kofman:

• “Ranking the order of threats to Russia from their perspective: 1. Ukraine, 2. NATO…it will be over Belarus…it’s not the Baltics…Russia cares about Belarus…3. Central Asia…all of the best commanders are in Central Asia, so that tells you something, and they all make it to the top of the general staff…4. the Pacific…the US and Japan…but Russia assumes that this would be the horizontal movement of a conflict that started in Europe…”

[OUTLAW 09]

Reports in Arabic social media that regime helicopters attempting to land reinforcements in Deir Ezzor were driven off by IS antiair

[OUTLAW 09]

Pentagon preparing aggressive proposals to combat #ISIS, including 1: putting 4,000 troops on ground to support #SDF in Syria

BUT WAIT... boots on the ground is going to go over big with the families of the 4000 in Syria...right.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria today.
Instead of fighting #ISIS & saving #DeirEzzor, #Assad & #Hezbollah attack civilians in #WadiBarada.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdNNxKHyjB8#…

It's really time, @CJTFOIR admits, the #YPG is part of the #SDF and gets the same support as the other groups in it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QN5OjksbmQ#…

Terrible scenes from #Talbisah hospital after #Assad regime air strikes on the city yesterday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jfa2TNpZjk#…

Interesting read....
#Russia's role in the region from the Gulf perspective: its alliance with #Iran/#Hizballah and #Assad
https://goo.gl/95wbXs#

Even more interesting comment from Russian FM....
Damascus was 2-3 weeks from falling when #Russia intervened: #Lavrov

240 mm 3-O-10 Nerpa cluster mortar shells, not uncommon in Ghouta

[OUTLAW 09]

DeirEzzor: #Assad regime gave the order: "Victory or death". Regime refused to evacuate anyone with helicopters from #DeirEzzor.

DeirEzzor: High-ranking officers asked the military in #Qamishli if they could send helicopters to evacuate them. The answer was no.

Say the guys who are begging for #US airstrikes AND green buses.
https://twitter.com/RanemBlida/statu...5586045210624#

DeirEzzor: #ISIS has captured the customs administration & taxes building in #DeirEzzor from #Assad regime.

DeirEzzor: Heavy fighting at 137th Artillery Base and Al-Fourat University.

Damascus: Fierce clashes in #Wadi_Barada. Rebels have destroyed 2 #Assad tanks today.

Idlib: #US airstrikes near #Binnish in #Idlib Province. A #US B-52 was seen in the area.

Palmyra: #ISIS has repelled another regime attempt to advance near #Tiyas Airbase today. 20 pro-#Assad forces were killed. #Homs

DeirEzzor: #ISIS has killed the personal assistant of #Assad Major General Issam Zahreddine in #DeirEzzor.

DeirEzzor: #ISIS has killed #Assad Brigadier General Samer Amin Ali in #DeirEzzor.

DeirEzzor: #ISIS has wounded #DeirEzzor Governor #Assad Major General Mohammed Samra & #DeirEzzor police chief.

DeirEzzor: #ISIS has killed #Assad Colonel Ayham Ahmed Suleiman in #DeirEzzor. He is from #Safita, #Tartus Province.

[OUTLAW 09]

Aleppo: Several civilians were killed or wounded by heavy #Russia|n airstrikes on towns and villages in Western #Aleppo.

Charles Lister
✔
@Charles_Lister
An important read from @FredericHof, on the challenges ahead for #Trump re. #Syria & #ISIS:

“Tillerson on #Syria”

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...jh_ks.twitter#

[CrowBat]

CSIS Panel: Russia's Intervention in Syria: Lessons Learned (January 13, 2017)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtCYXk9R95I

With exception of few details (that with 500lbs/250kg bombs being 'too heavy' is simply nonsense) - this reads like somebody's either following this, or the ACIG.info forum, perhaps WarIsBoring.com too - or all of that - and that since at least a year.

[Azor]

With exception of few details (that with 500lbs/250kg bombs being 'too heavy' is simply nonsense) - this reads like somebody's either following this, or the ACIG.info forum, perhaps WarIsBoring.com too - or all of that - and that since at least a year.

Well, I'm sure that Puhkov and Kofman have their own sources. At least it is confirmation that your own sources are correct. As WIB noted, the Russians are now being very careful to avoid the appearance of having committed war crimes, so perhaps that plays into the "dumb heavy" bombs being used as an excuse. However, it is also true that Russian ordnance was never designed with collateral damage in mind...

Personally, I've followed CSIS and WIB for a few years now, and find the former to be the most knowledgeable and measured of the think tanks when it comes to defense studies. CSIS has been adept at both conveying Russia's concerns and perceptions, while not pulling any punches when it comes to Russian aggression and propaganda.

I tried to distill the best comments from both Puhkov and Kofman, and I particularly agree with Kofman's assertion about Belarus. I do believe that Putin is more anxious about NATO expanding to include Sweden, Finland and possibly Belarus, than he is about the fate of Russophones or ethnic Russians in the Baltic republics. The Baltics would have to become authoritarian and markedly anti-Russian for him to act. Besides, there are millions of Russians in northern Kazakhstan, which is neither part of the EU nor NATO. Belarus is considered at least as important to Russia as Crimea is, which is no doubt why Lukashenko is very careful about sending feelers out to Brussels.

[OUTLAW 09]

CSIS Panel: Russia's Intervention in Syria: Lessons Learned (January 13, 2017)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtCYXk9R95I

Panelists:

1. Ruslan Pukhov – Director, Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, Moscow
2. Michael Kofman – Global Fellow, Kennan Institute at the Wilson Center, Washington, D.C.

On Russia’s adventure in Syria

Pukhov:

• The Russian Navy has undergone “Kalibr-zation” given that the use of sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles was deemed a major success
• Rather than relying upon elite pilots, the Russian Air Force has rotated as many pilots as possible (50%) to Syria for training and experience
• Collateral damage has been caused by the fact that Russian bombs, both smart and dumb, are too heavy (500 lbs or more)
• Basically, Russia will take a second look at the US SDB and smaller ordnance for urban situations
• There was also difficulty hitting moving targets from the air, and often pilots had to simply ignore them
• A major problem has been a lack of targeting intelligence, which apparently plagued France and Italy during Operation Odyssey Dawn
• Initially, the Russians relied upon Israeli targeting intelligence and then sourced it from Iran
• Russia is very concerned about the challenged posed by “lean and mean” air forces such as those fielded by Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands
• Overall, the Russians assess that their use of PGMs/smart weapons is on par with Operation Desert Storm, and they recognize that they are 20-years behind
• Russia relied upon Israeli-supplied UAVs, but US pressure has cut off that supply
• The Wagner Group is not a PMC “in the Western sense”, but a “hybrid” organization channeling “people outside of the regular military who wish to fight”
• Russia has had no experience working with allies, and coordinating with the Syrians, Iranians and Iraqis (he specifically mentions Hezbollah and Quds) was “invaluable”

Kofman:

• Very few PGMs were used, and those that were weren’t precise
• The SVP-24 only improves accuracy at low altitudes, but MANPADs forced the Russians to fly at medium or high altitudes
• Primarily, Russia is relying upon 1950s-era dumb bombs, even from the Tu-22s which were launched with only a 25% loadout
• There were no accidents with the fixed-wing assets of the air force, but various helicopters “fell out of the sky”, especially the Mi-28
• 3-4 Russian naval aircraft were lost off the Kuznetsov
• The “Syrian Express” relied upon LSTs 25-50-years old, but bringing in commercial transport was a useful adaptation
• 50-100 Russians were killed who were part of PMCs, including Wagner
• Russia still lacks domestic UAV capabilities
• Russia was able to produce sortie rates on par with the US-led coalition in Iraq and Syria
• “What percentage of the time did the Russian Air Force actually know what it was hitting? That’s very debatable…”
• The breakdown of allied coordination at Palmyra was embarrassing as was the diplomatic furor over the brief use of Iran’s Hamadan Air Base. However, working with allies is difficult even if they speak the same language and use similar equipment

Other Comments of Interest

Pukhov:

• Russia’s main lessons have been learned in Ukraine not Syria
• Russia undertook “5 waves of mobilization” to intervene in Ukraine, and the poor results necessitated changing the structure of the army (e.g. the reactivated divisions)
• The “return of Crimea” was a return to normalcy ("macro-historical norm")
• The desire of Yeltsin and then Putin initially for Russia to be a partner of the West was an aberration, which the Americans dismissed out of hand (especially Robert Gates, who Pukhov had admired)
• “Putin’s speech at Munich in 2007 was a cry from the soul…he said in 2001 why not be in NATO? He thought the same as Yeltsin, but thought that he could do it smarter and better…”
• “Kaliningrad was largely de-militarized and our main concern was Islamism in Algeria…”
• Now, Kaliningrad is militarized, and Russia fears regime change from the West and to a lesser extent conflict with Japan over the Kuriles or with China, however, there is a bias toward the European theater

Kofman:

• “Ranking the order of threats to Russia from their perspective: 1. Ukraine, 2. NATO…it will be over Belarus…it’s not the Baltics…Russia cares about Belarus…3. Central Asia…all of the best commanders are in Central Asia, so that tells you something, and they all make it to the top of the general staff…4. the Pacific…the US and Japan…but Russia assumes that this would be the horizontal movement of a conflict that started in Europe…”

Pukhov:...he is actually wrong.......the French and Italians had not a single issue with targeting...in fact the core problem was ...eventually a lack of targets forcing tanks to become targets.....and then drones were largely used and one drone was credited for killing a SAM 8 site....

[OUTLAW 09]

Wow....first Russia deliberately blocks all humanitarian aid to anyone anywhere inside Syria.....after they bombed everything into the ground as they did in Chechnya

SYRIA Rus MoD calls upon the international organizations to provide real humanitarian help to the Syrian population
http://s.mil.ru/2k2YfEW

[OUTLAW 09]

Putin's political godfather was the architect of Soviet support for Islamic terrorism, Yevgeny Primakov.
https://www.google.com/amp/www.rferl...client=safari#

[OUTLAW 09]

NOW US directly supporting Assad...as many felt was the indirect goal of Obama for a long while now......

Syria #US confirm they conducted several airstrikes since Saturday on #IS in #DeirEzzor to support regime-destroyed 12 vehicles & 1 barrier

BUT WAIT...this really cements UN intentions in Syria.......
Syria Since 2016 #UN dropped 177 times relief supplies by air into regime held part of #DeirEzzor city
This never happened for rebel towns

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria Clashes at #DeirEzzor cementery at southern city outskirts -seems new attacks by #IS this morning

FSA || Rural #Damascus
Regime General Raafat Ibrahim Nasif killed after FSA forces exploded a regime military tunnel in Harasta

Syria #DeirEzzor #SAA Brigade General Bashar al-Hallak killed in battle with #IS

Regime shelling #Daraa city in southern #Syria with artillery

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Syria Naval Express.....

Russian Navy's Aux. Amur class repair ship "PM 138" southbound on the İstanbul Strait en route to Tartu/ Syria (8:40 am local)