Syria in 2017 (January-April)

[Azor]

Outlaw,

Firstly, the no-fly zone in northern Iraq came to include a no-drive zone and is still in operation almost thirty years later. Do you want a similar commitment in Syria, especially when it will.be contested by Iran and Russia?

Secondly, I know of your antipathy toward Trump and a gigantic flowchart is not required to drive the point home.

Thirdly, are you disagreeing with CrowBat over the damage assessment?

Fourth, why would the Russians want Assad to use chemical weapons? To test American resolve? If anything, I think Assad did it secretly but used the Russians as an unwitting human shield.

Lastly, you've been harping on about Chris Steele's "graphic novel", so tell me, when is the golden shower tape going to appear? Putin's pissed - no pun intended - so now would be the perfect time...

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw,

Firstly, the no-fly zone in northern Iraq came to include a no-drive zone and is still in operation almost thirty years later. Do you want a similar commitment in Syria, especially when it will.be contested by Iran and Russia?

Secondly, I know of your antipathy toward Trump and a gigantic flowchart is not required to drive the point home.

Thirdly, are you disagreeing with CrowBat over the damage assessment?

Fourth, why would the Russians want Assad to use chemical weapons? To test American resolve? If anything, I think Assad did it secretly but used the Russians as an unwitting human shield.

Lastly, you've been harping on about Chris Steele's "graphic novel", so tell me, when is the golden shower tape going to appear? Putin's pissed - no pun intended - so now would be the perfect time...

Reference ...

1. a no fly zone in Syria will actually work..if approached this way ....damage all Syrian AF planes and copters...why copters...they are doing the heavy lifting on barrel bombings.....THEN it will be apparent to the world if Russia continues to fly sorties and drop cluster incendiary munitions or bunker busters as they will be literally the only ones flying...right now the RuAF just mingles in with the Syrian AF and you from the ground cannot clearly ID who is flying the strike mission...

THEN you no longer need a "no fly zone"...this should have been done in 2013 and you would not have seen sarin used again via Assad aircraft .....

2. Flowcharts are necessary simply because until every single person fully understands information warfare and how it is being successfully used against the US and Europe....this chart is not going away anytime soon....

3. Do not disagree on the BDA as I have posted enough to confirm CrowBat's assessment....I simply state....a wasted 59 TLAMs in order to make Trump appear to be "strong"....AND it definitely did not slow down the RuAF and Syrian AF air ops....

IF you launch a 59 missile strike THEN you should have a far better "follow on affects" for the mission....that strike was not "cheap".....

THIS is what the military targteers call ...the second and third order of affects.....

BUT this damage alone did not stop the Russian and Assad from unleashing a massive incendiary cluster munitions strike against anything that literally moved yesterday...MAKING a farce out of Trump's single TLAM strike.

4. Azor....here is the problem with your comment on 4...the Russians were in fact on the same base and believe me when it comes to CWs the GRU is well informed of where they are and who is controlling them...especially if their troops are collocated near to CWs....

Russia "not knowing" is like arguing you are not pregnant but in the sixth month and it shows........

5. I harp on Steele because right now a full 80% of the report has in fact been verified both by OSINT and the comments made by the FBI/NSA House briefings...alluded to via SIGINT and surveillance.

As always with HUMINT there is 20% that is off and or not quite accurate....

BUT here is the kicker...really read the dossier and you will see that it is a collection of HUMAN source conversations and recallings of conversations BUT naming names which is rare for HUMINT...

The interesting thing is now SIGINT both from the US and European sources confirmed a lot of those conversations actually took place...

There is an old saying in HUMINT.........SIGINT...ELINT...and satellites cannot tell you what is behind the third door on the right side on the second floor in a five story underground bunker...BUT the human can....OR what a decision maker is thinking at the moment

A many think that just because there are X number of satellites they cover "the world"...no they do not and sometimes have to be repositioned and or ranged in a certain angle to confirm what the human is saying was there and that takes time and planning...

BUT if I remember our conversations on the Steel dossier you flatly blew the report off.....go back and reread my comments.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Jordan is now doing the Russian heavy lifting......and openly now supports Russian Syrian moves....not so sure the Ukrainians would agree with his comments....

King Abdullah: Compromise with Russia on Crimea to get its help in Syria

What is exactly what the Russians are to do in Syria...they are fighting IS are they not.....no not really....

[OUTLAW 09]

Hello CrowBat. The Syria discussion hasn't been this lively since Aleppo...

In terms of accuracy and reliability, the 98%+ success rate should quiet some of the Tomahawk's detractors, although it will likely be eclipsed by the LRSO/LRASM family of systems over the next few years for high-end land-attack and anti-ship strikes.

I have several questions:

• I saw several fixed-wing aircraft parked in the open at the base on the Russian UAV video. Are these non-operational? Does this indicate that more aircraft survived in the hardened shelters?
  
• You said that the 136th Air Defense Regiment suffered a "severe blow", and all of the fatalities inflicted. Certainly they lost at least one Fateh-110 and I saw a radar not spinning, but I also saw a dug-in SA-6 near the edge of the airbase. How badly were they hit from an equipment perspective?
  
• Given the surviving aircraft, runways and air defense systems, would you characterize the attack as purely punitive? Was there no real attempt to substantially degrade the SyAAF or its air defenses?
  
• Do you think that the use of fifty-nine Tomahawks was a judicious use? Overkill? Not enough? Based upon the Tomahawk's operational history, the number of missiles per target varies widely, and Shayrat was hardened. To completely obliterate the base would require over 100 Tomahawks in my view, or more appropriately, follow-on by bombers.
  
• You mentioned that the S-400 was silent. However, isn't the S-400's radar blocked by the mountains between Homs and Latakia? In addition, would the Russians want to reveal their system's capabilities with respect to cruise missiles, only to defend Assad against an act of folly?

In my humble opinion, Assad authorized the use of Sarin in order to: (a) test Trump, (b) bring international attention back to Syria, and (c) ensure that Putin sticks around in order to keep the United States out. With Trump explicitly focused on Daesh and Aleppo having fallen, Putin could bolt for the exit, whereas Assad, and possibly Khamanei, want Putin to stay engaged and help them reconquer the whole of Syria. Basically, I believe that Teheran sees Moscow as a tool to help it carve out its "Green Crescent" through Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, before Teheran turns its attention to Bahrain and Yemen. Lastly, Pakistan, Pakistani Shias, and Balochistan, are probably the main reasons that Teheran wants nuclear weapons, not Israel nor liberating the Palestinians. Thoughts?

Sarin was used simply because Assad assumed he could get away with it..if one takes the ever increasing chlorine attacks that the UNSC could not even agree on...who is going to worry about the use of sarin....

The West urgently needs to have the chemical agent clearly identified as the initial field reports also sighted heavy chlorine odors on the clothing of the gas victims....SO was this a trial mixture using different precursors sarin being only one of them???? And there are solid reports that those that came into contact with the chemicals were also contaminated as well....sarin is usually immediately absorbed into the skin and cannot "rub off"...could have come from heavy soaked clothing but it does dissipate with time....there is much more than needs to be understood on this chemical agent...

I am patiently waiting for the OSINT report coming out of bellingcat..who produced some of the best OSINT on the 2013 attack as well as from the Russian OSINT group CIT...from the Russian side...

It was not used to "test anyone"....what is puzzling is the use of apparently a single sarin container as there has been really only one impact point seen...there had been initially 2 or 3 reported with a single photo but I have not seen those impact sites outside of this single photo so one impact is all...and the amount of causalities for a single container is actually impressive....

There were far more used in the 2013 attack and those killed then were 1200-1300....this single container caused roughly 100 killed but the injured number was in the 500-600 range...

IMHO..Assad is "rattled" from the major offensives where he is right now in his back foot and struggling to hold back those offensives especially in Daraa and Hama....and he lashed out to hurt the rebels...especially their families...

We see this "punishment" in the last few days of intensive use of cluster incendiaries on civilians and civilian residences....by both Russians and Assad AFs....

Since the morning, the #AssadPutin air force also uses #ClusterBombs on #Daraa city t stop rebel advances.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y04d...utu.be#…

[OUTLAW 09]

Daraa: Some #Assad regime fortifications were completely leveled by the rebels.

[OUTLAW 09]

AND Trump was against "regime change"...was he not during the campaign????

Trump's U.N. envoy says ouster of al-Assad is a priority of U.S.
http://reut.rs/2nsRvCh

[OUTLAW 09]

Daraa: Rebels have killed many pro-#Assad forces in #Manshiyah District of #Daraa City yesterday.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=32...7728&z=15&m=b#

Main hospital of Dael town bombed out of service


Fatal dissent: When a Hezbollah commander argued with Iran

Nothing more chillingly underlines Tehran’s determination to establish a permanent presence in Syria than the assassination of Mustafa Badreddine, the Hezbollah No.2 who dared question its policies

http://www.timesofisrael.com/fatal-d...ued-with-iran/

[OUTLAW 09]

Under the eyes of the #Kremlin regime troops,#EthnicCleansing/mass forced displacement continues in #AlWaer this morning.

[OUTLAW 09]

Sarin was used simply because Assad assumed he could get away with it..if one takes the ever increasing chlorine attacks that the UNSC could not even agree on...who is going to worry about the use of sarin....

The West urgently needs to have the chemical agent clearly identified as the initial field reports also sighted heavy chlorine odors on the clothing of the gas victims....SO was this a trial mixture using different precursors sarin being only one of them???? And there are solid reports that those that came into contact with the chemicals were also contaminated as well....sarin is usually immediately absorbed into the skin and cannot "rub off"...could have come from heavy soaked clothing but it does dissipate with time....there is much more than needs to be understood on this chemical agent...

I am patiently waiting for the OSINT report coming out of bellingcat..who produced some of the best OSINT on the 2013 attack as well as from the Russian OSINT group CIT...from the Russian side...

It was not used to "test anyone"....what is puzzling is the use of apparently a single sarin container as there has been really only one impact point seen...there had been initially 2 or 3 reported with a single photo but I have not seen those impact sites outside of this single photo so one impact is all...and the amount of causalities for a single container is actually impressive....

There were far more used in the 2013 attack and those killed then were 1200-1300....this single container caused roughly 100 killed but the injured number was in the 500-600 range...

IMHO..Assad is "rattled" from the major offensives where he is right now in his back foot and struggling to hold back those offensives especially in Daraa and Hama....and he lashed out to hurt the rebels...especially their families...

We see this "punishment" in the last few days of intensive use of cluster incendiaries on civilians and civilian residences....by both Russians and Assad AFs....

Since the morning, the #AssadPutin air force also uses #ClusterBombs on #Daraa city t stop rebel advances.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y04d...ure=youtu.be#…

NOTICE the not so subtle Russian MoD tie back into chemical warfare.....

THAT is exactly why I state Russian GRU knew about the Assad chemical attack...

Meanwhile in occupied eastern #Ukraine ...
Even more scary after we know #Russia approved the #IdlibGasAttack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKmocNZCIMQ#…

[OUTLAW 09]

This is what the #AssadPutin air force threw against rebels and civilians yesterday.
They still failed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozl-z-ogzog#…

Despite massive #AssadPutin air strikes that killed many civilians, Syrian rebels captured 10% of regime-held #Daraa city in 2 days

[OUTLAW 09]

Charles Lister‏
Verified account
#@Charles_Lister

Some Syria analysts defiantly insist that the West cannot/should not try to help push the crisis towards conditions amenable to settlement.

The default policy conclusion for these analysts is that we should *only* fight terrorism, while allowing broader conflict to continue.

In other words, the US should kill the 'bad guys,’ while allowing the foundational justification for 'bad guys’ to get bigger & bigger.

By extension, this also means that 5yrs more war in Syria (say, 250,000 more dead…) is essentially an acceptable policy reality for us.

Has 3yrs of fighting terror while allowing its root causes to fester worked? No.
Has U.S indecision & perceived weakness helped?
No.

Some of these analysts insolently dismiss others’ opinions, while consistently offering *nothing* as an alternative.
= Sheer hypocrisy

Besides being heartless, policy positions based on defeatist isolationism only makes an even greater future intervention more likely.

Only days/wks ago, these analysts dismissed *any* US military action in #Syria as lunacy.
Now suddenly, it’s become a matter of scale.

I can’t blame an analyst for evolving their assessment of a situation, but seriously have some humility.
Some humanity would help too.

[OUTLAW 09]

Trump's missile attack has unleashed some major Russian/US bot trolling and anti Trump comments

A solid number of Russian twitter bots have been identified...and retweeted then by US based trolls....

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor
Here's your crash course in operant conditioning, aka the mechanisms through which you reinforce Trump's behavior.

WHICH the Us MSM urgently needs to get to....and the Russians fully understand BTW....

When you want to reduce/stop a behavior, you can do this by:
-Adding a negative consequence (+/-)
-Removing a positive consequence (-+)

When Trump bombed an empty field in Syria this week, media responded by:
-Adding positive coverage (++)
-Reducing negative coverage (--)

The media showed Trump that he can use bombs to boost positive coverage & reduce negative coverage - ie, they reinforced his behavior.

So next time Trump needs to change the narrative, you can be sure he'll remember that bombs did the trick this time!

THIS is exactly BTW how informational warfare is driven....the Russian MoD has fully explained this in their information warfare doctrine...they just tie into this the internet and social media and they are off and running....

This sums up the charts....
The DonCon-op: Warn enemies in advance. Launch expensive but worthless attack. Claim greatest Victory since WWII.

Check the last chart..this happened in the middle of the TLAM attack BUT US MSM slide right over it...and it is critical....

Russian software engineer was detained in Barcelona in possible connection to U.S elections hack:https://it.liveuamap.com/en/2017/9-a...-in-barcelona#

Mod adds the link is only to a headline, not a report.

It is interesting that in the last year......THREE major Russian hackers and or hacker leaders have been arrested in Barcelona....maybe they like the weather there? OR simply there is a very large Russian mob base there...

IT is highly interesting that even the Chinese verify my flow chart.....

China's state news agency says Trump bombed Syria "to overcome accusations that he was “pro-Russia.” Meaning he was dodging his Russian connections....https://nyti.ms/2nVNfr8

Comment from one of the best social media OSINT types going these days who has set the standard even for the military...and he is UK not US based....

Eliot Higgins
✔
@EliotHiggins
Hey media, Russia told a lie that falls apart with the most basic fact checking and you're lapping it it. That's on you.


Eliot Higgins
✔
@EliotHiggins
It isn't balance when you don't bother fact checking statements by parties that are well established liars, it's being played for suckers


THAT is exactly why this flow chart is so important in the info war fight...

[OUTLAW 09]

Israel's Communist Party consistently backs Assad & Russian intervention. Apparently when it's Russia+Iran intervening it's not imperialism

Israel's Communist Party prevented issuing of an Arab Joint List condemnation of the chemical massacre in Syria

Elizabeth Tsurkov‏
Verified account
What was the intended effects of the chemical strike? How did the American strike undermine it? And why Khan Sheikhoun? My new analysis
http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.782366

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor
Here's your crash course in operant conditioning, aka the mechanisms through which you reinforce Trump's behavior.

WHICH the Us MSM urgently needs to get to....and the Russians fully understand BTW....

When you want to reduce/stop a behavior, you can do this by:
-Adding a negative consequence (+/-)
-Removing a positive consequence (-+)

When Trump bombed an empty field in Syria this week, media responded by:
-Adding positive coverage (++)
-Reducing negative coverage (--)

The media showed Trump that he can use bombs to boost positive coverage & reduce negative coverage - ie, they reinforced his behavior.

So next time Trump needs to change the narrative, you can be sure he'll remember that bombs did the trick this time!

THIS is exactly BTW how informational warfare is driven....the Russian MoD has fully explained this in their information warfare doctrine...they just tie into this the internet and social media and they are off and running....

This sums up the charts....
The DonCon-op: Warn enemies in advance. Launch expensive but worthless attack. Claim greatest Victory since WWII.

Check the last chart..this happened in the middle of the TLAM attack BUT US MSM slide right over it...and it is critical....

Russian software engineer was detained in Barcelona in possible connection to U.S elections hack:https://it.liveuamap.com/en/2017/9-a...-in-barcelona#

Mod adds the link is only to a headline, not a report.

It is interesting that in the last year......THREE major Russian hackers and or hacker leaders have been arrested in Barcelona....maybe they like the weather there? OR simply there is a very large Russian mob base there...

IT is highly interesting that even the Chinese verify my flow chart.....

China's state news agency says Trump bombed Syria "to overcome accusations that he was “pro-Russia.” Meaning he was dodging his Russian connections....https://nyti.ms/2nVNfr8

Background story on the worldwide hunt for Russian hackers in general...this particular arrest has not been signaled yet in western MSM but picked up in Russian MSM...looking for the Russian link....
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nati...141998499.html

Was actually surprised to see Russian reports of a Russian hacker arrested for US elections hacking....

LOCATED original Russian source....

First mentioned in this Russia twitter account
Mikhail Golub‏#
@golub
Программист из Петербурга задержан в Испании по запросу США.
Не хочет русский хакер отдыхать на Байкале

Actual referenced Russian media source.
http://www.rosbalt.ru/world/2017/04/09/1606078.html

Article is in Russian.....

[OUTLAW 09]

Eliot Higgins‏
Verified account
Pro-Assadists share videos of chemical weapon testing kits pretending they're actual chemical weapons

طارق‏#
@tarek_oo7
Very important tweets below to prove and confirm that the terrorist "rebels" in Syria has #ChemicalWeapons.

In 21 Nov 2012 , you-tuber Mazen Alshami uploaded a vid online for the terrorists saying they entered a military chemical facility.

[OUTLAW 09]

Israel's Communist Party consistently backs Assad & Russian intervention. Apparently when it's Russia+Iran intervening it's not imperialism

Israel's Communist Party prevented issuing of an Arab Joint List condemnation of the chemical massacre in Syria

It is extremely interesting to watch how the left and right in Europe together with the US ultra right IE white nationalists and white supremacists rally around Russian propaganda when it comes to the Syrian CWs attack...

Kremlin's pet Italian fascist @matteosalvinimi is only "following orders"

"Use of gas in Syria? I want proof"
https://twitter.com/lega_nord/status...0789265711106#

[OUTLAW 09]

IMPORTANT...why are Assad forces carrying protective masks....????

Daraa: Killed pro-#Assad forces in #Daraa were equipped with gas masks. For the case that #Assad's chemical weapons hit his own troops.

[OUTLAW 09]

Daraa: Photos show more pro-#Assad forces who were killed by rebels in #Manshiyah District of #Daraa City yesterday.

[OUTLAW 09]

McMaster: "how could it be" that Russia didn't know Syria was preparing and executing chemical weapons attack given RUS advisers at airbase

Rex says the battle against ISIS "is being coordinated somewhat with the Syrian regime..." Wait, WHAT??? @ThisWeekABC

So weird how Moscow and Damascus -- and sometimes #ISIS -- always seem to know our ops plans, isn't it?