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Thread: Syria in 2017 (January-April)

  1. #1661
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    Quality Trump WH ME expertise hard at work.......

    Senior Trump adviser Sebastian Gorka reportedly pitched a plan to split Libya on a napkin

    http://read.bi/2oZphfC

  2. #1662
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    CrowBat...are the figures correct and are the reports that the Syrian AF has basically pulled their aircraft back to the main Russian airfield accurate????

    9th April: significant drop of #SyAF activities (26 sorties) while #RuAF kept high number (128).
    https://www.reddit.com/r/SyrianRebel...9_april_2017/#

    Note: fighter jets, helicopters and drones included.

    Syria. Overview of aerial activities last 8 days:
    - #RuAF: 856 sorties (107/day) -> 65%
    - #SyAF: 460 sorties (57.5/day) -> 35%.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-10-2017 at 06:37 PM.

  3. #1663
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    BREAKING....Important....

    Charles Lister‏
    Verified account
    #@Charles_Lister 4h
    4 hours ago

    IMPORTANT: I’m now told by 4 well-placed sources that US *knows* #Russia was involved in the #KhanSheikhoun chemical weapons attack.

    This can only be via SIGINT......intercepts....
    White House says U.S. holds open possibility of more strikes in Syria.
    http://reut.rs/2ojGphB

  4. #1664
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    Well worth reading as it goes to the current rebel offensive that is makin serious headway in Hama...

    Assad Used Nerve Gas Because He’s Desperate. Expect Worse to Come.

    Lost in the intense coverage of the dictator’s chemical weapons attack and Trump’s retaliatory strikes was the reason for Assad’s deadly decision.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...source=twitter

  5. #1665
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    Azor...would you agree that this WH has absolutely no idea of what is going on inside Syria????

    White House says containing Islamic State is greatest thing U.S. can do to provide relief to Syrian people.
    http://reut.rs/2oS0fCf

    Question: Why is it okay to bomb Syria but not help refugees?

    Spicer: Taking action is greatest aspect of humanitarian relief we can offer.


    WTHeck does this statement really mean....??

    Azor...remember Trump was not going to get into the "regime change business"....?
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-10-2017 at 06:12 PM.

  6. #1666
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    Azor...remember that no fly zone.......no flying could mean no Syrian copters as they are the ones carrying out the majority of the barrel bomb attacks and have been for years....shut them down and you shut down barrel bombs...

    Second time Spicer says barrel bombs attacks could trigger "further action."

    Sean Spicer on Syria: "if you gas a baby, if you use a barrel bomb, you'll see a reaction from this President"

    BUT the use against civilians by dropping incendiary cluster munitions...is apparently not...
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-10-2017 at 06:22 PM.

  7. #1667
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Azor...remember that no fly zone.......no flying could mean no Syrian copters as they are the ones carrying out the majority of the barrel bomb attacks and have been for years....shut them down and you shut down barrel bombs...

    Second time Spicer says barrel bombs attacks could trigger "further action."

    Sean Spicer on Syria: "if you gas a baby, if you use a barrel bomb, you'll see a reaction from this President"

    BUT the use against civilians by dropping incendiary cluster munitions...is apparently not...
    Wonder if Trump's spokesperson Spicer has seen this barrel bomb video...the next TLAM wave should then be on it's way based on his comments today....

    Video showing what's described as a barrel bombing today in Syria, cc @seanspicer @realDonaldTrump
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doUAdWTrDZ0#

    BUT WAIT......
    Assad dropped more than 16k barrel bombs in 2016 alone.

    Get ready for a wild summer everyone

  8. #1668
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    Russia analyst Michael Kofman tells me Russia furious w/ Assad:"wd love to strangle him to death..He signed his own political death warrant"

    Russia is seriously trying to distance themselves from this latest chemical attack.....although SecDef Mattis stated yes the Russians were directly involved....

  9. #1669
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    Hama: Rebels have killed an #Afghan commander of the #Iran|ian Liwa Fatemiyoun militia in Northern #Hama.

  10. #1670
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Russia analyst Michael Kofman tells me Russia furious w/ Assad:"wd love to strangle him to death...He signed his own political death warrant".
    Kofman's an astute Russia hand. Where is your source for this?

  11. #1671
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    Default To Outlaw 09 RE: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    1. if the airfield is associated with chemical weapons and chemicals weapons are assumed to be stored anywhere close to that airfield then targeting strike doctrine says you make all runways inoperable either with JDAMS or in the case of Block IV TLAMS you can in fact damage the runways....a video actually showed aircraft bunker penetrations so runways damages were not a problem...
    The Tomahawk is not an anti-runway weapon, and I have never heard of it being used in that role, even with the BLU-97/B warhead. Yes, some of the missiles created a few craters at Shayrat, but anti-runway penetration bombs (such as the Matra Durandal) would be required to disable the runways, delivered of course by fixed-wing aircraft. I don’t see how you can conflate punching through a hardened aircraft shelter with burrowing underneath and tearing up a runway. They are very different effects.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    2, if aircraft and fuel storage were targeted which they were that would not stop further chemical attacks...as it appears that the equipment needed to load chemical bombs from their storage containers was nowhere to be seen on any video since even CENTCOM says they did not hit any chemical storage sites...
    The objectives were to punish Assad and to “degrade” his ability to launch CW attacks, thereby deterring further such atrocities, not to destroy his ability to do so.

    As for Assad’s chemical weapons, they would be the most secure part of his arsenal. Attacking their storage directly could result in their capture by other factions, including Al Qaeda and Daesh, and/or possibly the release of CW agents.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    3. so again what really was degraded...airfield largely operational within hours of the attack…chemical storage site not hit thus still capable to be used...
    Ask CrowBat

    Did you imagine that the U.S. would commence an intermittent air campaign to keep Shayrat disabled whilst Assad rebuilds the runways and Putin fortifies the base with air defenses?

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    What exactly was achieved?
    A signal to Putin, Khamenei, Xi and Kim, as much as Assad. As for Assad, it remains to be seen whether he will dare to use Sarin again.

    RE: Signaling to Assad

    With respect to the “further action” and references to “barrel bombs”, it is clear that Washington is looking to deter Assad from terrorizing Syrian civilians, which is: (a) the best recruitment tool for Al Qaeda and Daesh; and (b) the primary reason for Syrian refugees. Washington clearly wants to both deter Assad and avoid providing “red lines” that he and his sponsors can challenge.

  12. #1672
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    Default Putin backs down

    From Interfax: https://twitter.com/interfax_news/st...26348631920640

    Russian Federation Council member says Russia will not intercept a US missile strike on Syria, but Syria has the right to do so.

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    Default Spicer also climbs down...

    https://twitter.com/AndrewBeatty

    1.
    Confirmed - Spicer's barrel bomb red line referred to barrel bombs containing industrial chemicals like chlorine.
    2.
    White House further walking back Spicer's 'barrel bomb' red line, saying "nothing has changed in our posture."
    So the "red line" will be Assad's use of CW. However, the reference to chlorine gas and "industrial chemicals" is troublesome given their ease of production and the difficulty in attributing blame for their use.

  14. #1674
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Kofman's an astute Russia hand. Where is your source for this?
    It came from a Russian FB...VK comment that I caught but did not screen shot and it was deleted 15 minutes later...

    I tend to follow a key number of VK accounts...he has in the past stated a few accurate comments on Ukraine.

  15. #1675
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    The Tomahawk is not an anti-runway weapon, and I have never heard of it being used in that role, even with the BLU-97/B warhead. Yes, some of the missiles created a few craters at Shayrat, but anti-runway penetration bombs (such as the Matra Durandal) would be required to disable the runways, delivered of course by fixed-wing aircraft. I don’t see how you can conflate punching through a hardened aircraft shelter with burrowing underneath and tearing up a runway. They are very different effects.



    The objectives were to punish Assad and to “degrade” his ability to launch CW attacks, thereby deterring further such atrocities, not to destroy his ability to do so.

    As for Assad’s chemical weapons, they would be the most secure part of his arsenal. Attacking their storage directly could result in their capture by other factions, including Al Qaeda and Daesh, and/or possibly the release of CW agents.



    Ask CrowBat

    Did you imagine that the U.S. would commence an intermittent air campaign to keep Shayrat disabled whilst Assad rebuilds the runways and Putin fortifies the base with air defenses?



    A signal to Putin, Khamenei, Xi and Kim, as much as Assad. As for Assad, it remains to be seen whether he will dare to use Sarin again.

    RE: Signaling to Assad

    With respect to the “further action” and references to “barrel bombs”, it is clear that Washington is looking to deter Assad from terrorizing Syrian civilians, which is: (a) the best recruitment tool for Al Qaeda and Daesh; and (b) the primary reason for Syrian refugees. Washington clearly wants to both deter Assad and avoid providing “red lines” that he and his sponsors can challenge.
    1. the TLAM carries a large enough warhead to damage any runway anywhere in the world..if you say the numerous videos of the aircraft hangers one roof of at least two meters of reinforced concrete was completely punched through and then detonated...

    2. what is actually worrying is the constant comment that there was a chemical depot and it was not touched...exactly as in Libya so the depot was actually a chemical depot...so why not release evidence that led them to that conclusion

    3. anyone tracking this thread thoroughly knows the death bringer among civilians has always been barrel bombs..why not simply TLAM the only factory that the rebels tried to capture but could not....it is that simple and also usually a number of copters used to drop them are located near the factory

    4. the use of the word "degrade" is a farce..."degrade" means partially damaged..capable of regeneration in a short period...the regeneration phase needs to be determined during the targeting phase.....so why not simply destroy because if the political realm changes you might not get a second chance...example if I sabotage key rail line switches I need to destroy 10% of them as railroads keep a set amount of switches in reserve...but for the moment until I destroy a total of 10% I have "degraded that line"....?

    5. there was no chance that IS or AQ could have gotten anywhere close to the base if in fact the chemical depot had been attacked....

    The aircraft numbers previously posted are accurate CrowBat does not need to confirm....

    BTW...one strike is not a "FP"....one needs a very well thought through strategic strategy...which was completely lacking in Obama WH as well....

    This strike was a tactical move to relieve pressure from his Russian connections investigation and to pull up his poll numbers which did not happen...numbers are flat after the strike...his alt right ran from him and the core Russian election hacker was arrested in Barcelona.

    Was simply Wag the Dog v2.0....
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-11-2017 at 04:37 AM.

  16. #1676
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    Notice even the Iranians understand the fire Putin is playing with and back away ...

    Iran joins Russia in denouncing U.S. missile strike, but does not go the extra step.
    http://nyti.ms/2oStTHB

  17. #1677
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    Daraa: Bad situation for the pro-#Assad forces in #Manshiyah District of #Daraa. All the #Assad propaganda doesn't help.

    Daraa: A long rebel tour through liberated areas in #Manshiyah District of #Daraa.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TE5CzT4WtA#
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-11-2017 at 04:34 AM.

  18. #1678
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    https://twitter.com/AndrewBeatty

    1.

    2.

    So the "red line" will be Assad's use of CW. However, the reference to chlorine gas and "industrial chemicals" is troublesome given their ease of production and the difficulty in attributing blame for their use.

    Trump admin still incredibly sloppy w/ language.

    Did Spicer really mean to say Trump will prevent barrel bomb attacks or was he ad-libbing?

    Both Trump and Spicer have yet to learn one of the most important points in being President and spokesperson.....

    Word usage is important...extremely important....use them wisely....

  19. #1679
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    One of the best social media open source analysts going.....

    The Khan Sheikhoun Chemical Attack — Who Bombed What and When? via @bellingcat
    https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena...ttack-bombed/#

  20. #1680
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    RuAF fighter jets are flying over Taftanaz town, Idlib
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=6Fn2ANHNw78#

    This attack happened yesterday evening......
    New video shows #Kremlin regime air force Su-35 high tech fighter aircraft dropping #ClusterBombs on #Daraa
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5ehZWaskQQ#…

    Syria's #Idlib province this morning.
    #Russia attacks #Taftanaz w/ Su-34
    #Iran supplies #Fuah & #Kefraya w/ Iranian AF C-130

    New #ClusterBomb air strikes on #Lataminah today.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hl-PbngVSGc#…

    Russia's Su-34 bombed #Saraqib in #Idlib province once again today.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7L5RjMd-1Zs#…
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-11-2017 at 07:34 AM.

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