Syria in 2017 (January-April)

[OUTLAW 09]

Today #Hezbollah tanks shelled a banquet hall housing displaced civilians north of #Damascus. This is the aftermath.
https://youtu.be/wQAPnYbl7Tg

Russian Defense Ministry surprised by lack of assistance to Aleppo civilians from UN
http://tass.com/politics/925071

BUT WAIT..both Assad and Putin would not allow UN into Aleppo....

[OUTLAW 09]

Absolutely incredible stuff, reports now rebels have regained control of Ein al-Khadra in Wadi Barada from Hezbollah/regime forces

Assad forces retreat from Turdah Mountain
/Tal Kroum & Panorama Roundabout south of #DeirEzZor city
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...&search=Idlib#

DeirEzzor: Reports that #ISIS has captured the #Assad Hospital, Al Fourat University and that they are attacking the Police Academy.

47 Afghans of #IRGC's Fatemiun brigade killed in Syria(mostly in Aleppo,some in Tadmur)buried during last 3weeks in different cities of Iran

Reports several regime & Iranian officers were killed in the Israeli airstrikes. #Damacus
Airstrikes reportedly targeted ammo depot + signal/radar building in Mezzeh AB + 4th div positions in Qasioun + air defence system in Yafour

W. #Aleppo: Jaish Al-Mujahideen destroyed with a #TOW a mini van used by Iranian militias on Menyan front.

N. #Hama: 2nd #TOW strike by Jaish Al-Izza blowing up a pick-up reportedly carrying Regime officers.

N. #Hama: Jaish Al-Izza wiped out with a #TOW a group of pro-Regime forces in Shaliut.

Killed in the car bomb explosion are Mil Intel Brig Gen Munthir Haydar & NDF militants Jumaa Wasouf, Uthman Aboud, Hitham Ismail & others

Charles Lister ‏@Charles_Lister Jan 11
So far, #Russia’s “withdrawal” from #Syria has seen the *additional* deployment of:
- 12 Su25 jets
- Multiple heavily-laden transport ships

WadiBarada: Rebels destroyed with a Metis #ATGM a position with a tank overlooking the valley:

[OUTLAW 09]

DeirEzZor: #IS took ceramic factory & cut road btw airbase &
Harrabesh neighborhood
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...6295&z=16&m=b#

DeirEzzor: #ISIS has destroyed several regime vehicles, including a bus full with pro-#Assad forces.

DeirEzzor: #ISIS is advancing in #Harabesh District, on the Cemetery and along the N-7 Road.

DeirEzzor: #Assad regime defence lines are collapsing in several areas of #DeirEzzor.

#DeirEzzor: Unconfirmed reports: #IS took brigade 113 base on #Damascus road
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...6944&z=16&m=b#

Homs: Clashes between #ISIS and pro-#Assad forces in Eastern #Homs.

[OUTLAW 09]

Just another shocking video from "al-Qaeda heartland" #Idlib province (Khan Shaykhun city).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWoMh3Jpk0k#

FSA News ‏@FSAPlatform
#Syria || NEW @SNHR #Report

> 318 Total #Ceasefire Violations

Breakdown:
- 277 Regime forces
- 34 Russian forces
- 7 Opposition forces

56 people were killed across #Syria on Sunday.
30 of them by Turkish artillery in al-Bab and ISIS mines while trying to flee.
- LCC

[CrowBat]

A short summary of developments of the last few days on principal battlefields of the SCW:

Dayr az-Zawr
There are reports that the Daesh launched a biggest offensive on 'regime' forces in this city (nearly half of 'regime' is meanwhile actually Hezbollah). It should be a very serious, and substantiated attack - and making quite some progress, too (blue-marked areas on the map below).

Correspondingly, the Daesh at least reached - although failed to capture - the Assad Hospital, but seems to have reached the Police School, and it certainly captured Engineers Housing. It should have cut off the road between the air base and the ceramic factory, as well as the Harrabesh Neighbourhood. BTW, Daesh claims, a SyAAF air strike hit own troops somewhere in Dayr az-Zawr area.

Aleppo
Because of IRGC's unsurpassed ability to learn, the JAM TOWed another - already the fifth - group of IRGC-thugs on exactly the same point along some road in Aleppo in a matter of three weeks. Of course, contrary to dozens of similar videos posted by the IRGC and Hezbollah, that video was removed from YouTube. 'Violation of terms of service'...

T-4/Tiyas - Palmyra Area
Hezbollah fans are reporting a counter-offensive launched on 9 January with the aim of widening the perimeter. Supposedly involved is the 11th 'Tank' Division and its 67th Brigade. Latest report by...ho-hum!... al-Masdar also cites the arrival of that much-famed V Legion (aka 'Corps') in this area. However, the BMP-2s seen there and sand-coloured T-72s (ex mounts of the Republican Gaurds) are operated by Hezbollah already since early 2014. Indeed, other units identified as deployed there include the 800th Battalion RG, the IRGC's Liwa Zulfiqar, and the Liwa Imam Rida, too. To make sure nobody runs away, all of them are controlled by the Dir al-Quwwat al-Jawwiya (Air Force Intelligence Shield, centrepiece of the Quwwat Nimr).

Certainly enough, they're receiving plentiful support from SyAAF and VKS helicopters.

Damascus
First things first: while most of people on anti-regime side can't stop claiming it's only Hezbollah that's assaulting the Wadi Barada pocket, and all possible Assad-fans can't stop babbling about 'Syrian Arab Army' doing so, it transpires it's not only Hezbollah but also the Arab National Guard and Quwwat al-Qalamoun that are fighting there. Regime's contribution consists of the Quwwat Nimr's (aka 'Tiger Force') Quwwat Shahin (aka '3rd Battalion').

BTW, the latter are survivors from the gang that recently got smashed by Daesh and then kicked out in a high loop out of Palmyra... Seems, Col Botox (Brig Gen Hassan, of course) considers the place safer for them.

Talking about that topic - and particularly important because all the possible Assad/Putler fans can't stop screaming they're fighting 'al-Qaida, IS, and allies' in Wadi Barada: this pocket is defended by following insurgent factions:

- Abdal ash-Sham (Basima militia): perhaps 300
- Liwa al-Qadissiya (from Rankous), perhaps 200
- Ahrar ash-Sham: perhaps 230

Then there are various minor militias known only by their commanders:

- Abdullah al-Alwani: perhaps 200
- Badr ad-Din al-Khatib: perhaps 150
- Safy Alam ad-Din: perhaps 60
- Qutayba al-Khatib Abu Muslim: perhaps 40
- Ala'a Yassin: perhaps 40

Anyway... some 3-4 days ago, Hezbollah & Co KG GesmbH attempted to exploit the confusion caused by negotiations that revolved around water supply to Damascus. Namely, the chief regime negotiator for the area, Maj Gen Ahmad al-Gahdban, supposedly reached an agreement along which a team of regime forces would've been granted permission to enter Bassimeh and Fijeh, and repair the damage caused by Assadist aerial bombardment.

The insurgents might have agreed with this (reports are very contradictive), but what happened next was that the Hezbollah (and the ANG, and the Quwwat al-Qalamoun, and the Quwwat Shahin etc.) attempted to exploit this opportunity to launch another assault.

Approximately around the same time, and true to best Assadist traditions, Brig Gen Qais al-Farwa got so mad about Ghadban, he field-executed the nifty traitor-negotiator - and this in front of gathered local mayors, several ministers and notable figures from northern Damascus area.

Anyway... so, Hezbollah & Co... attacked and entered Bassimeh - and then attempted to continue its advance on Ein al-Khadra, and Ard ad-Dahr too. Behind the troops fighting for them, what Joshua Landis loves to call the 'sole acceptable solution' - also known as Assadists - began burning and looting Bassimeh, and arresting whoever was left there.

For a while, it appeared local insurgents couldn't stop this advance. But, alas: this morning it transpired that Landis' 'disunited Syrian Jihadists' dared smash that attack and push the Hezbollah back to most of its starting positions. That is: they regained control of Ein al-Khadra and Wadi Barada, but Bassimeh remains under Hezbollah control.

Overall, the Assadist/IRGC/Russian cease-fire goes on, obviously.

[OUTLAW 09]

Kyle W. Orton ‏@KyleWOrton
Assad’s Atrocities Help Al-Qaeda Recruit#Westerners https://kyleorton1991.wordpress.com/...t-westerners#…

Well worth reading....

Kyle W. Orton ‏@KyleWOrton
This week, U.S. sanctioned 18 #Assad officials for chemical attacks
Three years after "deal" to stop them

Charles Lister ‏@Charles_Lister Jan 11
The #AQinSyria report is out!

*The result of months of discussions by multiple #Syria experts & an event tomorrow:
https://timep.org/wp-content/uploads...in-Syria.pdf#…

[OUTLAW 09]

Despite heavy pressure from #Turkey, #Syria’s opposition has not yet agreed to attend #Astana talks on Jan 23 - conditions issued.

Opposition conditions incl:

- more secure ceasefire
- guaranteed humanitarian aid flow
- heavier political opposition representation

.@zaak05349775481 of Fastaqm/FSA:
#Russia seeks talks w. military factions… [to form] a joint military force… as step towards a solution'

Strong calls for #Syria opposition unity process to succeed - “Merger Under the Umbrella of the Revolution”

10 key non-JFS groups involved:

DeirEzzor: #ISIS has cut the #Assad regime supply towards #DeirEzzor Airport.

[CrowBat]

Reading your posts citing Russians, Outlaw, brought me to their amazing military capabilities that are so ably demonstrated in Syria, every single day.

By side the fact that the bad weather forced the VKS to drop the number of its air strikes from more than 50, back on 12 January, to less than 25, yesterday...

More importantly, and as we all know so well, it is so that Russia has 10 reconnaissance satellites in orbit over Syria, and its armed forces are at least 'experimenting with net-centric warfare.

See:https://jamestown.org/program/russia.../#.Vxf0vnB%20_ there too.

And this is not to mention that each single of Russian bombs is scoring a 100% hit, no matter how dumb (or consisting of hundreds of even dumber bomblets from CBUs the VKS is 'not' deploying in Syria at all, no-no...)... By now, we should also know that the Keystone Cops in Moscow (see: Russian MOD) announced they've flown 71,000 combat sorties there (appears to actually be the number of dumb bombs they've released), 'eliminated 35,000 terrorists' (primarily Syrian civilian terrorists), etc.

....nah, now I'm on the best way of going off-topic.

The actual point is: because of all that incredibly precise intelligence acquired by Russian intelligence services, and because of that super-turbo precision of SVP-24-equipped fighter-bombers of the VKS, so far they failed to kill even one of top figures of the al-Qaida, or at least the JFS in Syria.

Nyet. Such dumb job should be done by US UAVs. Attached below is an informative illustration in this regards: guess, if the CIA goes on like this for another 20 years, the USA might even win this war...

[OUTLAW 09]

CrowBat....and they definitely are fighting IS which is why Trump wants to work with Putin in order to lift sanctions......

DeirEzzor: Pro-#Assad media confirmed that #ISIS controls the road to the Airport. First time that they confirmed territorial losses

Remember they really really big victory in Palmyra.....

Syria All air-focus on #IS today?
100+ airstrikes around #Homs Tiyas Airbase (T4) & #DeirEzzor -battlefield

[OUTLAW 09]

CrowBat...Iran is apparently totally nervous about something these days......

Over reaction: MiG-29s of #IRIAF #Iran Air Force took-off during QRA from #Mehrabad to shoot-down a small UAV in #Tehran's No-Fly Zone area!

IRIADF #Iran Air Defense Force ZU-23 and Sky Guard/ Oerlikon AA gun sites fired at an Unknown Object #UFO over #Tehran #Iran seconds ago.

BUT WAIT........
They accidentally shot the Mahdi.

Iranian officials: the drone or quadcopter just changed its heading & disappeared after AA Guns fired at it over #Tehran No-Fly zone #Iran!

[OUTLAW 09]

#Breaking #IRGC Quds Force ranking officer MGen Masjedi confirms being appointed as #Iran Ambassador in #Iraq.

[OUTLAW 09]

Sources to @DeirEzzor24 [who you should be following]: #IS is using elite units from Deir Ezzor itself and Ninawa against Deir Ezzor City.

If #IS is redeploying better troops from #Iraq, and #Assad coalition losing this badly at a time of relative calm: there are lessons therein......

Hassan Hassan ‏@hxhassan
Very interesting:
The clashes in Deir Ezzor are being spearheaded by elite brigades coming from #Nineveh, according to @DeirEzzor24.

Syria: as 1000s in #DeirEzzor r at risk the regime continues to push #WadiBarada. Assad prefers crushing resistance over fighting terrorism

Syria #DeirEzzor #IS took over tank battalion near brick factory -seized tanks & ammo store

Syria Reports: #IS fighters infiltrated Jura & Al-Qussour neighborhoods in #DeirEzzor city -unconfirmed-
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...22221&z=16&m=b …

Syria #IslamicState split Regime area in #DeirEzzor in 2 parts

[OUTLAW 09]

Russia is having a tough time of it in Aleppo.......

Local activists: bodies of 3 Russian soldiers found in Tariq al-Bab district inside east Aleppo, Assad forces searching and arresting people

Soldiers likely military police brought to Aleppo to provide security, in fact to put Assad/Iran militias on the leash as agreed with Turkey


FSA News
‏@FSAPlatform
#WadiBarada || #WarCrimes
Today regime helicopters dropped c.20 barrelbombs on Ain Fija + artillery shells &rockets on edge of Deir Muqaran

FSA News ‏@FSAPlatform || #WadiBarada
Regime still preventing humanitarian aid from entering to provide medical service & food to besieged civilians

FSA News
‏@FSAPlatform
#FSA || #WadiBarada
Free Syrian Army fighters take on regime & Hezbollah in intense clashes on several axis in Wadi Barada, rural #Damascus

Free Syrian Army forces blow up a regime tunnel in Jobur, #Damascus

Free Syrian Army forces in Damascus province & rural areas

[OUTLAW 09]

Sources to @DeirEzzor24 [who you should be following]: #IS is using elite units from Deir Ezzor itself and Ninawa against Deir Ezzor City.

If #IS is redeploying better troops from #Iraq, and #Assad coalition losing this badly at a time of relative calm: there are lessons therein......

Hassan Hassan ‏@hxhassan
Very interesting:
The clashes in Deir Ezzor are being spearheaded by elite brigades coming from #Nineveh, according to @DeirEzzor24.

Syria: as 1000s in #DeirEzzor r at risk the regime continues to push #WadiBarada. Assad prefers crushing resistance over fighting terrorism

Syria #DeirEzzor #IS took over tank battalion near brick factory -seized tanks & ammo store

Syria Reports: #IS fighters infiltrated Jura & Al-Qussour neighborhoods in #DeirEzzor city -unconfirmed-
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35...22221&z=16&m=b …

Syria #IslamicState split Regime area in #DeirEzzor in 2 parts

Suddenly all of the SAA trolls who cheered the siege of #Aleppo are crying for the civilians in #DeirEzzor. Are we supposed to believe them?

Palmyra was just the key milestone for #ISIS to their final goals #DeirEzzor City and more areas in #Homs Province.

DeirEzzor: #ISIS has confirmed captured the Cemetery, Workers area and the Garages area from the #Assad regime.

DeirEzzor: The #Assad regime in #Damascus has probably no clue what their forces control in #DeirEzzor and what is under #ISIS control.

DeirEzzor: #ISIS has captured the Tank Battalion, seized tanks and tons of ammunition from the #Assad regime.

Palmyra: #Assad regime losses at #Tiyas Airbase since Saturday: - 30+ pro-#Assad forces killed - 3 bulldozers + 1 technical - tank damaged

Palmyra: #ISIS blowing up pro-#Assad forces near the #Tiyas Airbase with SVBIED. #Homs

I thought #Assad's key allies are #Russia and #Iran and not #US? Why should the #US help #Assad?
ARE they now counting on Trump??????

DeirEzzor: Pro-#Assad accounts blaming: - #Obama ("he bombs for #ISIS") - #Merkel ("she spies for #ISIS) - #Putin ("he don't bomb enough")

DeirEzzor: Pro-#Assad accounts blaming the #German Luftwaffe for the regime failure in #DeirEzzor. Hilarious!

[OUTLAW 09]

DeirEzzor: 100+ #Assad and #Russia|n airstrikes were not able to stop the #ISIS offensive.

Shabab al Sunna @shabab_sunah fighting regime forces in Wardat village, Lajat area
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dai16Vm478c …

Idlib council meets with representatives of aid orgs in Jisr al Shugur
https://youtu.be/F5SFyjCSDfY

Euphrates Shield fight against IS in Qabr al Muqri village in the outskirts of al-Bab, #Aleppo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yI3dyD4cvZg …

15 killed and 12 people wounded after Jeb al braz village near al-bab was targeted by IS
https://youtu.be/80cvB5lsi90

Liwa Tawhid al-Jnoob fighting with regime on Manshia front
https://youtu.be/PLdv4f_2X44

Graphic video of civilians killed by regime in Deir Qanoun, Wadi Barada yesterday
https://youtu.be/wQAPnYbl7Tg

Video from the aftermath of an IS car bomb that targeted Anyfia village in #aleppo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjcBpKKpY2o …

While #ISIS advances in #DeirEzzor, Hezb/regime continue assault on Wadi Barada w/ arty shelling, rocket fire & barrel bombs. Priorities.

[OUTLAW 09]

Opposition groups that have reportedly agreed to not attend/send delegates to Astana talks:
Ahrar al-ShamSuqour al-Sham
Faylaq al-Rahman
Thuwar al-Sham
Jaish Idlib
Jaish al-Mujahidin
Faylaq al-Sham
Sultan Murad
Shamiya Front
Jaish al-Izza
Jaish al-Nasr
1st Coastal Div
Liwa Shuhada al-Islam
Tajamu Fastaqim
Jaish al-Islam

To end factionalism among #Syria rebels, a new group called "Syrian National Army" will be created with #Turkey support

FSA Mujahidin Army take out another group of regime Shia militias with ATGM in Assad suburb west of #Aleppo

[Azor]

Opposition groups that have reportedly agreed to not attend/send delegates to Astana talks:
Ahrar al-ShamSuqour al-Sham
Faylaq al-Rahman
Thuwar al-Sham
Jaish Idlib
Jaish al-Mujahidin
Faylaq al-Sham
Sultan Murad
Shamiya Front
Jaish al-Izza
Jaish al-Nasr
1st Coastal Div
Liwa Shuhada al-Islam
Tajamu Fastaqim
Jaish al-Islam

To end factionalism among #Syria rebels, a new group called "Syrian National Army" will be created with #Turkey support

FSA Mujahidin Army take out another group of regime Shia militias with ATGM in Assad suburb west of #Aleppo

That's unfortunate. I was hoping that the 1st Coastal Division would be included...

[CrowBat]

DeirEzzor: 100+ #Assad and #Russia|n airstrikes were not able to stop the #ISIS offensive.

Don't trust any such claims.

I went through Sentry Syria's reports for yesterday, just about one hour ago, and there is no trace of evidence for such claims (indeed: there is not even trace of evidence for claims about '60' or 'non-stop' air strikes on Dayr az-Zawr).

Yesterday, 16 January 2017, just one sortie was launched during the entire night - by Russians, around 01.37. This hit Atarib.

The next one signalled the start of the usual morning wave: 07.38, 07.45 - but was apparently interrupted by bad weather. Nearly two hours later, one more take-off, at 09.25.

Assadists woke up at 10.09, and launched a single Su-24 from Tiyas AB, and one helicopter from as-Safira at 10.33.

Then Russians launched one helicopter at 10.42, and a fighter bomber at 10.44.

Then one Su-24 from Shayrat AB at 10.45 and another at 11.02.

An An-30B overflew Atarib at 11.27.

Another Su-24 was launched from at 11.28, and one VKS fighter-bomber from Hmemmem AB at 11.37, followed by another at 11.40, one at 11.44 (this bombed Hreitan), 12.31, another at 12.31, and one helicopter from as-Safira at 12.55.

Then came something like a 'big wave': a MiG-23 was launched from Shayrat at 13.12, another at 13.20 (this bombed Talbiseh), a Su-24 from Shayrat at 13.27, another from Tiyas at 13.29, a helicopter from as-Safira at 13.33, a Su-24 from Shayrat at 13.49, one Russian fighter-bomber from Hmemmem at 13.52, another Su-24 from Tiyas at 13.53, Su-22 from Shayrat at 14.09, and a Su-24 from Tiyas at 14.10. Even then, some of these air strikes have hit Talbiseh (in the Ra'astan-Talbiseh Pocket, north of Homs).

More Russian take-offs followed at 14.16, 14.21 (bombed Latamina), 14.30, 14.33, 14.46 (bombed Jishr ash-Shughour), 15.48, and at 16.00.

One Su-24 was launched from Shayrat at 16.01, and one from Tiyas at 16.06.

At 16.09, an unknown aircraft was sighted over Jishr ash-Shughour: could be a US-made UAV or even an A-10.

One L-39 launched from Kweres in NE direction at 16.12, a Su-24 from Shayrat at 16.31, another L-39 from Kweres at 16.57, Su-24 from Tiyas at 17.05, and a L-39 from Kweres at 17.06. All of these flew in NE direction and no air strikes anywhere else were reported the next 20 minutes, so I assume these all flew attacks on Daesh in Dayr az-Zawr. This is little surprising, considering Daesh claimed to have captured the base of the 119th Artillery Battalion, and overrun the bus station, and it attempted to enter the Tahtuh and Harrabesh Districts from North. Sina'a District was hit by a VBIED, and up to 40 Assadists captured and beheaded. With this, the pocket was split into two (as can be seen 'even' by maps readied by Assad-fans, see below).

Russians became active again around 18.27, launching two fighter bombers; then another at 19.24, one at 19.24, and another at 19.46.

A sole Su-24 launched from Tiyas at 20.44, one L-39 from Kweres at 21.08, another at 21.27, and one at 23.08.

Then Russians flew for the rest of the evening, but not particularly intensivelly: one take-off at 21.09, another at 21.15, one at 22.17, one at 22.44, another at 22.55, then one at 23.27, and one at 23.34 (this one killed a woman and 4 of her kids in Aniq Bajra, Eastern Hama). That's it.

Totals:
SyAAF
L-39: 6
helicopters: 3
MiG-23: 2
Su-22: 1
Su-24: 14

VKS: 30
helicopters: 1
recce: 1

Overall: this was not a particularly intensive day - Russians were launching as many as 60 sorties a day just about a week ago - probably because of bad weather over most of Syria. Even if the Sentry Syria might have missed some, say, 20% of air strikes - it's still no indication of 'non-stop air strikes'.

Except somebody there is counting every 'bomb' as 'air strike'. Namely, Russians do make bombing runs, one by one: i.e they drop two bombs, turn around and then drop the other two (they seldom carry more than four bombs). Assadists, on the contrary, release all of their bombs at once.

For those who ask themselves how many troops the regime has in Dayr az-Zawr: precise numbers are unknown, but my estimate is, 'less than 2,000 left'. Assad fans are reporting that the local garrison consists of the 'Republican Guard' (the 104th Brigade), '17th Division' (actually: only whatever was left of the 137th Brigade and that was not much already back in 2012), Quwwat al-Jalil (Galilee Force, Palestinians), and Hezbollah, plus police, air force intel and military security (see: Quwwat Nimr/Tiger Force, to watch over everybody else). Means: they've certainly flown in some reinforcements over the last few months, which is why they might have 'less than 2,000 (otherwise it would be much less). And while the governor of Dayr az-Zawr is smiling on the TV, and explaining that 'all is nice and fine', there are reports the regime thugs are storming civilian houses/appartments in Joura, Qusour and Harabesh, and dragging males to the frontlines.

[CrowBat]

That's unfortunate. I was hoping that the 1st Coastal Division would be included...

...and surprising, too. The 1st Coastal is supposed to be supported by Turkey, and Turkey is supposed to be the primary force behind this 'drive to unite'.

If they 'fell out', then... why?

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria Warplanes & Helicopters bombing rebel held villages in Wadi Barada west of #Damascus

BUT WAIT...the Russian FM is hitting the vodka to much today......
Russian FM Lavrov accuses US of viewing #ISIS as a "moderate" force to bring down #Assad govt.

IF Russia was as he himself stated at the UNGA destroying IS he would not have to be attacking the US with an utter myth.....

BUT WAIT...they have virtually abstained from attacking IS these days and are losing to IS badly...