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Thread: Syria in 2017 (January-April)

  1. #1801
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    Need some light humor today after all the Assad/Putin incendiary cluster strikes the last few days...

    A Baathist, a Putinist, a Stalinist and an Antisemite walk into a bar, the bartender says: "The anti-war meeting is upstairs"

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    Azor.....that "ten foot barge pole" just keeps coming back and back and back.....

    BOMBSHELL: Ex-MI6 chief accuses Trump of secretly borrowing $ from Russia to keep his property empire afloat
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/331982...ncial-crisis/#

    Not sure just how he is going to sue the Sun for defamation...

    So was the TLAM strike a Wag the Dog v2.0 moment or a "red line in the sand thingy"????

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    Azor....that "ten foot barge pole"...needs to get longer...

    Carter Page tells me he can't guarantee he did not discuss easing of sanctions w Russian contacts; “Let’s see what the FISA transcripts say”

    Wow. So GCHQ did warn US intel about links between Trump team and #Russia intelligence, although didn't tap Trump
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...-links-russia#

    They now have specific concrete & corroborative evidence of collusion,” the source said.

    Germany, Poland and Estonia also passed intelligence on contacts between Trump officials and Moscow to US, according to sources, in 2016

    Maybe also Dutch and French.

    Who says transatlantic intel sharing is moribund?

    Donald J. Trump‏
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    #@realDonaldTrump 3h
    Things will work out fine between the U.S.A. and Russia. At the right time everyone will come to their senses & there will be lasting peace!
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-13-2017 at 04:35 PM.

  4. #1804
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    THIS sums up the Trump FP....and that of his merry band of WH brothers....

    Trump means nothing he says

    NATO "no longer obsolete...America has the best friends & the best allies in the world"

    "The #NATO Alliance has been the bulwark of international peace and security" ever since its founding 68 years ago -- @POTUS Donald Trump
    Again Trump changes his very own statements....

    Trump clarifies meaning when he says US "go it alone": "going it alone means going it with lots of other nations"
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press...etary-general#

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    Latakia: #FSA blowing up #Assad regime position in Northern #Latakia with #TOW today.

    The regime's mode of disinformation amounts to: "I know you are but what am I?"
    http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/1.783270#

    Russian MoD
    In order to monitor and observe the situation, Russian UAVs have been sent to the region of Deir ez-Zor

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    Palmyra: Video shows the #ISIS attack against pro-#Assad forces near the #Palmyra Silos yesterday.

    An agreement is being negotiated to hand over Tell Rifaat and Menagh in northern Aleppo to FSA by the Syrian Democratic Forces.

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    Syria's Assad says Idlib chemical attack 'fabrication' - AFP interview
    http://reut.rs/2pxE4xr

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    MIT Tech Review

    @techreview
    Russia gets “the true nature of the battlefield” in a way the West does not. The power lies in information.

    http://trib.al/7ibtNhY

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    Default To Outlaw 09 RE: Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    I have from the very beginning stated...with a Putin and an Assad if one does not confront and confront them daily with all forms of measures they will pull back exactly one inch wait for the West to get lazy which takes exactly two weeks and then moves forward again…

    Diplomacy gets you nowhere...AND you can check my comments in SWC entered right after the annexation of Crimea…concerning the fact that the US pushed diplomacy was doomed to fail and it has...

    They both respect you if you respond as they would as they can judge how then to react...BUT get hit by TLAMs and total verbal confrontation in UNSC...then they are confused and lost and grope for what to do...which is exactly what we are seeing in Moscow right now...
    I suppose that this is the highest compliment that Trump Administration can expect to receive from you After all, who was it who combined Tomahawks (Sen. Warren was aghast) and a flurry of diplomatic blows. Not once did Obama ever wrong-foot Putin or knock him on his ass.

    As for Tillerson, I am not concerned with the MSM’s opinions, as the news cycle depends upon stark binary judgments.

    Over time, we have come to learn that Putin was quite anxious about a U.S. response to his occupation of Crimea, not unlike how Hitler was anxious about an Anglo-French response to his re-militarization of the Rhineland. One can only imagine the other outcomes possible had Obama sailed a Carrier Strike Group through the Bosporus to pay a visit to say Constanța in the Spring of 2014.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Putin threatens war at every turn...that is his standard threat...in the end he does nothing as he does in fact fear a direct war as he knows he will lose....

    The West on the other hand is actually afraid of war and pulls back under the bluster...thus allowing him to move forward unimpeded..

    Check every move he has made since Georgia...you will notice the pattern...if I can see it then the NSC should be able to see it...
    I largely agree. Moscow gets quite ornery when it doesn’t get its way, but it is all bark and no bite.

    The issue here is not necessarily a lack of intelligence, knowledge or experience on the part of the U.S. national security establishment – except where Rhodes, Rice, Clinton and Power are concerned – but of national objectives and constraints.

    Examining the landscape from the perspective of the capital markets, America is comparable to an investor who has earned very high returns over a long period of time, who wants to preserve her capital, requires minimal income, and who only needs to keep up with inflation. On the other hand, Russia believes that her portfolio is far too small to meet her needs, she needs income, and she wants to grow her portfolio aggressively. Both investors are rationally averse to risk, but Russia needs to take more risk in order to produce the returns that she wants. Her focus is on performance; America’s focus is on risk-management.

    Now, America has new objectives and a higher tolerance for risk. Is it because she needs the money? No. It’s because she now wants it.

    [QUOTE=OUTLAW 09]

    IF Obama and the emphasis is on the IF...if he had truly launched a massive and specific TLAM attack over a few days to effectively destroy the Syrian AF and their helicopters we would not have seen the following…

    Are you going to weep and gnash your teeth about the President you didn’t have, or deal with the President you do have?

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Now one can spin the reality of the use of force anyway one wants to but sometimes when diplomacy goes nowhere after three years...measured force is the way forward…
    I disagree. Obama’s diplomatic goal was to return to the status quo and cease all hostilities so that he could get back to hectoring Americans on firearm violence and the 10% of murdered black males whose killers were of another race.

    Is it any wonder why the revisionist powers failed to comply? They too want to “move forward into broad, sunlit uplands”, and unfortunately, that meant disturbing Obama’s beauty sleep.

    Trump will have to articulate a vision of the future. That future will include new coalitions, new allies, new neutrals, new rivals and new adversaries.

    If history rhymes, the U.S. will probably forge a new coalition to contain China, and that coalition will come to include Russia. For its part, China will form its own coalition, which will include much of Central Asia, a few of its neighbors and various African states.

    There will be a risk that the European part of the coalition, including Russia, will integrate into a bloc on the order of the Warsaw Pact, but such is life.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Azor...does this honestly sound like a Russia one can continue to conduct diplomacy with...

    Time for so called diplomacy with Russia has to be ended as it has not worked a single inch since Georgia...

    Until Putin fully expects a forceful pushback...only then will he pull back...
    Moscow’s angry. They’re allowed to blow off steam. They’re not allowed to arm the Taliban, fortify Iran or shoot down U.S. aircraft over Syria.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Azor...currently Russian troops and her PMUs are literally all over the battlefields throughout Syria and have total control of the Command and Control side...so does this look like Russia is not intent in recapturing the entire country...in my world...the answer is yes...
    Again, Michael Kofman and Mark Galeotti disagree with you. I doubt that Putin is averse to Assad reconquering the entire country, but he is averse to increasing Russia’s commitment. Putin’s objectives in Syria are met.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
    Azor...your core problem is that you do not speak to Russians on a daily basis as I do often here in Berlin..all in their 20/30s and they are not going back home any time soon....

    The trucker strike right now is extremely well known inside Russia little known outside Russia and it goes to the heart of the Russian economy slash corruption.

    You quote figures and percentages BUT in the end it is the society that right now sees their real income sinking to levels not seen since the 90s..food costs exploding and getting higher with each day and the corruption that the opposition talks about and gets arrested for talking about is up front and in their face and they blame Putin no one else...
    Russian inflation spiked in 2015, but is now at reasonable levels and below the 10-year annual mean. Russia’s GDP per capita in constant prices and PPP suffered declines, but are again comparatively much better than before 2008 and of course the 1990s.

    Like it or not, this is a blip compared to the chaos of the 1990s. This is not to say that Putin is an outstanding steward of the Russian economy, as given his starting point and the commodity super-cycle, a monkey with an abacus could have balanced the budget.

    Russia’s experience is actually very similar to that of Brazil’s, although the latter spends relatively little on defense. In fact both Russia and Brazil seem to be moving into a recovery, and they represent two of the best opportunities for fixed income investors.

    Unfortunately, you are working on anecdotal evidence. Russia has slipped, but not fallen. Of course, the electorate is fickle and the longer Putin’s reign continues, the dimmer its memories of Yeltsin and the Communist Party will be. As Putin is increasingly judged solely on his own stewardship, the pressure to grow the economy and living standards increases and the less appetite the electorate has for “managed democracy”.

    At present, talk of a Russian collapse is about as sensational and inaccurate as talk of a Chinese one. Putin has considerable room for maneuver, but much will depend upon the people that he has appointed to regulate the economy. Putin is not unlike one of those Roman Emperors who spent their careers campaigning with the legions, while surrogates governed the Empire from Rome.

  10. #1810
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    MIT Tech Review

    @techreview
    Russia gets “the true nature of the battlefield” in a way the West does not. The power lies in information.

    http://trib.al/7ibtNhY
    Pollock doesn't seem to get it either.

    Russia is using a whole-of-government approach, including generous use of propaganda, to fight what it regards as a conflict with the West. The West does not agree that there is even a conflict, whereas it did during the Cold War.

    There is nothing new here. Plausible deniability and stunts such as Crimea only work during small proxy wars of choice where there is no direct great power war.

    The West now believes that there is a conflict between it and Russia, and has begun countering Russia's non-military or "soft power" offensives.

  11. #1811
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    [QUOTE=Azor;203742]I suppose that this is the highest compliment that Trump Administration can expect to receive from you After all, who was it who combined Tomahawks (Sen. Warren was aghast) and a flurry of diplomatic blows. Not once did Obama ever wrong-foot Putin or knock him on his ass.

    As for Tillerson, I am not concerned with the MSM’s opinions, as the news cycle depends upon stark binary judgments.

    Over time, we have come to learn that Putin was quite anxious about a U.S. response to his occupation of Crimea, not unlike how Hitler was anxious about an Anglo-French response to his re-militarization of the Rhineland. One can only imagine the other outcomes possible had Obama sailed a Carrier Strike Group through the Bosporus to pay a visit to say Constanța in the Spring of 2014.



    I largely agree. Moscow gets quite ornery when it doesn’t get its way, but it is all bark and no bite.

    The issue here is not necessarily a lack of intelligence, knowledge or experience on the part of the U.S. national security establishment – except where Rhodes, Rice, Clinton and Power are concerned – but of national objectives and constraints.

    Examining the landscape from the perspective of the capital markets, America is comparable to an investor who has earned very high returns over a long period of time, who wants to preserve her capital, requires minimal income, and who only needs to keep up with inflation. On the other hand, Russia believes that her portfolio is far too small to meet her needs, she needs income, and she wants to grow her portfolio aggressively. Both investors are rationally averse to risk, but Russia needs to take more risk in order to produce the returns that she wants. Her focus is on performance; America’s focus is on risk-management.

    Now, America has new objectives and a higher tolerance for risk. Is it because she needs the money? No. It’s because she now wants it.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

    IF Obama and the emphasis is on the IF...if he had truly launched a massive and specific TLAM attack over a few days to effectively destroy the Syrian AF and their helicopters we would not have seen the following…

    Are you going to weep and gnash your teeth about the President you didn’t have, or deal with the President you do have?



    I disagree. Obama’s diplomatic goal was to return to the status quo and cease all hostilities so that he could get back to hectoring Americans on firearm violence and the 10% of murdered black males whose killers were of another race.

    Is it any wonder why the revisionist powers failed to comply? They too want to “move forward into broad, sunlit uplands”, and unfortunately, that meant disturbing Obama’s beauty sleep.

    Trump will have to articulate a vision of the future. That future will include new coalitions, new allies, new neutrals, new rivals and new adversaries.

    If history rhymes, the U.S. will probably forge a new coalition to contain China, and that coalition will come to include Russia. For its part, China will form its own coalition, which will include much of Central Asia, a few of its neighbors and various African states.

    There will be a risk that the European part of the coalition, including Russia, will integrate into a bloc on the order of the Warsaw Pact, but such is life.



    Moscow’s angry. They’re allowed to blow off steam. They’re not allowed to arm the Taliban, fortify Iran or shoot down U.S. aircraft over Syria.



    Again, Michael Kofman and Mark Galeotti disagree with you. I doubt that Putin is averse to Assad reconquering the entire country, but he is averse to increasing Russia’s commitment. Putin’s objectives in Syria are met.



    Russian inflation spiked in 2015, but is now at reasonable levels and below the 10-year annual mean. Russia’s GDP per capita in constant prices and PPP suffered declines, but are again comparatively much better than before 2008 and of course the 1990s.

    Like it or not, this is a blip compared to the chaos of the 1990s. This is not to say that Putin is an outstanding steward of the Russian economy, as given his starting point and the commodity super-cycle, a monkey with an abacus could have balanced the budget.

    Russia’s experience is actually very similar to that of Brazil’s, although the latter spends relatively little on defense. In fact both Russia and Brazil seem to be moving into a recovery, and they represent two of the best opportunities for fixed income investors.

    Unfortunately, you are working on anecdotal evidence. Russia has slipped, but not fallen. Of course, the electorate is fickle and the longer Putin’s reign continues, the dimmer its memories of Yeltsin and the Communist Party will be. As Putin is increasingly judged solely on his own stewardship, the pressure to grow the economy and living standards increases and the less appetite the electorate has for “managed democracy”.

    At present, talk of a Russian collapse is about as sensational and inaccurate as talk of a Chinese one. Putin has considerable room for maneuver, but much will depend upon the people that he has appointed to regulate the economy. Putin is not unlike one of those Roman Emperors who spent their careers campaigning with the legions, while surrogates governed the Empire from Rome.
    1. the brain drain is massive more than the Putin government wants you and or me to know about

    2. quality of the education system has dropped badly with those 20-30 year olds I talk to coming to the West to either continue their education or find far better paying ones with what they have....

    3. check the latest figures for national reserves...

    4. check the number of failed banks against the total number that existed in JAN 2016

    5. check the wave of corruption arrests as Putin attempts to co op the oppositions demo complaints.....

    6. could continue.....

  12. #1812
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    [QUOTE=Azor;203742]I suppose that this is the highest compliment that Trump Administration can expect to receive from you After all, who was it who combined Tomahawks (Sen. Warren was aghast) and a flurry of diplomatic blows. Not once did Obama ever wrong-foot Putin or knock him on his ass.

    As for Tillerson, I am not concerned with the MSM’s opinions, as the news cycle depends upon stark binary judgments.

    Over time, we have come to learn that Putin was quite anxious about a U.S. response to his occupation of Crimea, not unlike how Hitler was anxious about an Anglo-French response to his re-militarization of the Rhineland. One can only imagine the other outcomes possible had Obama sailed a Carrier Strike Group through the Bosporus to pay a visit to say Constanța in the Spring of 2014.



    I largely agree. Moscow gets quite ornery when it doesn’t get its way, but it is all bark and no bite.

    The issue here is not necessarily a lack of intelligence, knowledge or experience on the part of the U.S. national security establishment – except where Rhodes, Rice, Clinton and Power are concerned – but of national objectives and constraints.

    Examining the landscape from the perspective of the capital markets, America is comparable to an investor who has earned very high returns over a long period of time, who wants to preserve her capital, requires minimal income, and who only needs to keep up with inflation. On the other hand, Russia believes that her portfolio is far too small to meet her needs, she needs income, and she wants to grow her portfolio aggressively. Both investors are rationally averse to risk, but Russia needs to take more risk in order to produce the returns that she wants. Her focus is on performance; America’s focus is on risk-management.

    Now, America has new objectives and a higher tolerance for risk. Is it because she needs the money? No. It’s because she now wants it.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

    IF Obama and the emphasis is on the IF...if he had truly launched a massive and specific TLAM attack over a few days to effectively destroy the Syrian AF and their helicopters we would not have seen the following…

    Are you going to weep and gnash your teeth about the President you didn’t have, or deal with the President you do have?



    I disagree. Obama’s diplomatic goal was to return to the status quo and cease all hostilities so that he could get back to hectoring Americans on firearm violence and the 10% of murdered black males whose killers were of another race.

    Is it any wonder why the revisionist powers failed to comply? They too want to “move forward into broad, sunlit uplands”, and unfortunately, that meant disturbing Obama’s beauty sleep.

    Trump will have to articulate a vision of the future. That future will include new coalitions, new allies, new neutrals, new rivals and new adversaries.

    If history rhymes, the U.S. will probably forge a new coalition to contain China, and that coalition will come to include Russia. For its part, China will form its own coalition, which will include much of Central Asia, a few of its neighbors and various African states.

    There will be a risk that the European part of the coalition, including Russia, will integrate into a bloc on the order of the Warsaw Pact, but such is life.



    Moscow’s angry. They’re allowed to blow off steam. They’re not allowed to arm the Taliban, fortify Iran or shoot down U.S. aircraft over Syria.



    Again, Michael Kofman and Mark Galeotti disagree with you. I doubt that Putin is averse to Assad reconquering the entire country, but he is averse to increasing Russia’s commitment. Putin’s objectives in Syria are met.



    Russian inflation spiked in 2015, but is now at reasonable levels and below the 10-year annual mean. Russia’s GDP per capita in constant prices and PPP suffered declines, but are again comparatively much better than before 2008 and of course the 1990s.

    Like it or not, this is a blip compared to the chaos of the 1990s. This is not to say that Putin is an outstanding steward of the Russian economy, as given his starting point and the commodity super-cycle, a monkey with an abacus could have balanced the budget.

    Russia’s experience is actually very similar to that of Brazil’s, although the latter spends relatively little on defense. In fact both Russia and Brazil seem to be moving into a recovery, and they represent two of the best opportunities for fixed income investors.

    Unfortunately, you are working on anecdotal evidence. Russia has slipped, but not fallen. Of course, the electorate is fickle and the longer Putin’s reign continues, the dimmer its memories of Yeltsin and the Communist Party will be. As Putin is increasingly judged solely on his own stewardship, the pressure to grow the economy and living standards increases and the less appetite the electorate has for “managed democracy”.

    At present, talk of a Russian collapse is about as sensational and inaccurate as talk of a Chinese one. Putin has considerable room for maneuver, but much will depend upon the people that he has appointed to regulate the economy. Putin is not unlike one of those Roman Emperors who spent their careers campaigning with the legions, while surrogates governed the Empire from Rome.
    Azor..so Trump is what apologizing for his comments...and the comments from Tillerson and Haley?????

    Donald J. Trump‏
    Verified account
    #@realDonaldTrump 3h
    Things will work out fine between the U.S.A. and Russia. At the right time everyone will come to their senses & there will be lasting peace!

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Syria's Assad says Idlib chemical attack 'fabrication' - AFP interview
    http://reut.rs/2pxE4xr
    The smoking gun…

    - U.S intel intercepted comms of #Syria “military & chemical experts discussing preparations" prior to 4 April CW attack.

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    Anatomy of a Sarin Bomb Explosion (Part I)
    by @DanKaszeta
    via @bellingcat
    http://bit.ly/2obN6it
    Attached Images Attached Images

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    Combat reports for northern Syria are right now extremely quiet....

    REALLY extremely quiet...too quiet actually...
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-13-2017 at 06:32 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Azor....that "ten foot barge pole"...needs to get longer...

    Carter Page tells me he can't guarantee he did not discuss easing of sanctions w Russian contacts; “Let’s see what the FISA transcripts say”

    Wow. So GCHQ did warn US intel about links between Trump team and #Russia intelligence, although didn't tap Trump
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...-links-russia#

    They now have specific concrete & corroborative evidence of collusion,” the source said.

    Germany, Poland and Estonia also passed intelligence on contacts between Trump officials and Moscow to US, according to sources, in 2016

    Maybe also Dutch and French.

    Who says transatlantic intel sharing is moribund?

    Donald J. Trump‏
    Verified account
    #@realDonaldTrump 3h
    Things will work out fine between the U.S.A. and Russia. At the right time everyone will come to their senses & there will be lasting peace!
    Annnd now we know why the TrumPutin team was so desperate to smear #GCHQ -- with help from RT and its US parter in disinformation, @FoxNews

    "The alleged conversations were picked up by chance as part of routine surveillance of Russian intelligence assets."
    It happens.

    Virtually the entire Western SIGINT alliance knew Trump was in cahoots with Putin.
    American voters, not so much.

    Same source has told me they have received audio of Trump directly involved with arranging financial arrangements with Russian sources ......

    First arrests may be as soon as next week.

    Justice Dept finds 90 pages of Voting Machines Malfunctions in Swing States. PA, FL, NC, WI and MI.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-13-2017 at 06:48 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Azor...force sometimes used in a meaningful way can actually stop most issues....

    IF Obama and the emphasis is on the IF...if he had truly launched a massive and specific TLAM attack over a few days to effectively destroy the Syrian AF and their helicopters we would not have seen the following;.....

    1. Russia entering Syria
    2. Assad using 167-200 times chlorine and sarin against civilians
    3. the fall and utter destruction of Aleppo
    4. the eventual fall through the rebels of Assad
    5. a unified rebel effort against IS
    6. no major entry of Iran and shia militias into Syria in the numbers we now are seeing
    7. IMPORTANT...not over 2.5M refugees in Europe and in Turkey and Jordan
    8. the large amount of war crimes...ie starvation....ethnic cleansing...gas attacks...cluster munitions using incendaries against civilians and residential areas...

    BUT we did not see a major strike in 2013 and we have what now????

    Now one can spin the reality of the use of force anyway one wants to but sometimes when diplomacy goes nowhere after three years...measured force is the way forward...
    Back in 2013, we've had plenty of discussions to all such topics - just check the older threads (if they're still around?) - and the near unitary reaction on this very forum was, 'go there if you like, but Syria is not important and thus no issue of the US national interest'.

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    Not exactly sure just what/who a single 11 ton bomb is suppose to impress.....

    From 2003, worth noting MOAB has been seen as a PSYOPS tool.

    Twitter needs to Stop being weird about the 11-ton MOAB. For some perspective, here is a B-52 starting to drop 81 1,000 pound bombs.

    Now a three B52 flight "arch light strike" gets everyone's attention.......and that for miles.......even the North Vietnamese Army had a high respect of an "arch light strike".....as did the Iraqi Army in Kuwait....

    Was caught once inside the danger close range of an arch light drop and the ground had three foot high waves rippling for minutes much like a major earthquake...now that get's your attention....
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-13-2017 at 06:51 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Not exactly sure just what/who a single 11 ton bomb is suppose to impress.....

    From 2003, worth noting MOAB has been seen as a PSYOPS tool.

    Twitter needs to Stop being weird about the 11-ton MOAB. For some perspective, here is a B-52 starting to drop 81 1,000 pound bombs.

    Now a three B52 flight "arch light strike" gets everyone's attention.......and that for miles.......even the North Vietnamese Army had a high respect of an "arch light strike".....as did the Iraqi Army in Kuwait....
    Here's the father of all bombs: Russia's answer to the MOAB
    http://read.bi/2pbqFi7

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Combat reports for northern Syria are right now extremely quiet....

    REALLY extremely quiet...too quiet actually...
    Ahrar al-Sham calls on all rebel groups and capable #Syria|n men to fight against #Assad.


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