Russo-Ukraine War 2017 (January-April)

[OUTLAW 09]

I don't find him particularly compelling. Research into nuclear weapons policy indicates that American and Russian/Soviet nuclear doctrine was and is almost wholly dependent upon their conventional power relative to one another.

Even when Kennedy's administration turned away from Eisenhower's New Look/First Offset/Massive Retaliation doctrine, not much changed operationally until the Nixon era, because it took decades (at least 20 years) for the United States to develop a credible Flexible Response.

Only during the late 1970s did it become apparent that technological advancement could allow US conventional forces to "fight outnumbered and win" against quantitatively superior Warsaw Pact, Chinese and North Korean forces.

Despite Reagan's confrontational rhetoric, he was the first US president not dependent upon nuclear weapons when it came to the Soviets.

Look at the nuclear saber-rattling done by Eisenhower (to end the Korean War), Kennedy (to end the Cuban Missile Crisis), Nixon (to deter Soviet forces from entering the Yom Kippur War and to pressure the Soviet Union and China to stop aiding North Vietnam) and Ford (to signal displeasure to North Korea).

Putin's nuclear saber-rattling coincides completely with: (a) official acceptance of the Russian military's weaknesses, and (b) a sense that the West is expanding and needs to be contained.

Irrespective of one's moral views regarding the United States and the Soviet Union/Russia, the fact is that both saber-rattled when they felt on the defensive and unable to challenge the other.

Removed from the context of the Soviet Union being a genocidal and aggressive power, Eisenhower's deployment of nuclear weapons was not only provocative but bordering on lunacy.

Galeotti noted that no Russian general believes that "nuclear de-escalation" is even feasible. It's all part of Putin's show; his brinkmanship that mimics what US presidents did in the 1950s-1970s. Unfortunately, Mlechin serves as an unwitting mouthpiece to convince the West that Putin is a "madman" and therefore cannot be confronted anywhere lest he set off the bomb.

Azor...here is the core problem with dealing with Putin...his inner circle and yes even the Russian FM Lavrov.....when one preaches nothing but their very own propaganda "kool aid" for the last two years focused on why they are clashing with the West...then at some point one begins to truly believe that "kool aid" meaning you are in fact a superpower fully capable of dictating your will .....you lose totally sight of the true ground reality and mistakes then occur in judging exactly what the West will or will not do...that is the inherent problem with propaganda..trying to keep leaders immune from it so they can make valid and sane assumptions in their decision making process....AND IMHO they are on the verge of actually "believing" that they could in fact get away with a tactical nuclear first strike...at least on the senior leadership circle around Putin....this does not include the military which will always do what the Putin circle dictates....

We are now at that point on the Russia side........and we in the West keep making the same basic mistake when we judge Putin's actions....the West led by the US have totally misread him since Crimea...his invasion of eastern Ukraine and exactly what he wants in Syria.....