I have attempted to discuss the options for Ukraine to deal with the Russian invasion, based upon the suggestions put forth by Dueas in Counterinsurgency Options for Ukraine
 and Kofman's analysis of Russian policy in A Comparative Guide to Russia's Use of Force: Measure Twice, Invade Once.

Firstly, it is crucial for Kiev to fight for support in the West, namely the European Union, NATO and the United States. This means that the sanctions must remain.

Secondly, Kiev needs to make Putin feel threatened, and what truly scares him is peaceful popular revolts (as in East Germany in 1989, Russia in 1991 and Ukraine in 2013-2014) and guerrilla warfare (as in Afghanistan from 1979-1989 and Chechnya from 1994-1995).

How to accomplish this?

  • Reach out to pro-Ukrainian Ukrainian citizens in both Donbas and refugees from the war in Russia in order to provoke popular demonstrations against the war and to develop guerrilla networks in both. According to the Russian government, there are 2.7 million Ukrainian refugees in Russia, which is a large enough pool to raise a resistance movement of 30,000 and an active guerrilla force of at least 2,000, which should be able to inflict Russian deaths on the order of over 200 per year.
  • Allow for anti-Kadyrov Chechens to have sanctuary in Ukraine and use it as a base for organizing armed resistance to his faction.
  • Allow Crimean Tatars to use Ukraine as a base for armed resistance in Crimea.
  • Allow Ukraine to become a sanctuary for non-ethnic Russian separatists from the Russian Federation, as well as Russian dissidents.
  • Focus on capturing Russian soldiers and operatives and concentrating media attention on them (in addition to Russian KIAs) for distribution into Russia.


Third, Kiev needs to find a mechanism for accepting the loss of Crimea, which it won't get back, without accepting Russia's annexation. Perhaps Kiev can suggest a UN or OSCE-monitored referendum in Crimea on being part of Russia, with Russian forces confined to their barracks.

Lastly, Kiev requires socio-economic and political restructuring in order to allow for free, transparent and fair commerce and democracy to flourish. Kiev needs both the financial and structural aspects of a "Marshall Plan", but I doubt that the European Union will be in a position to provide this necessary support, either on the financial or advisory side.

Therefore, Kiev needs to establish separate security and economic ties with Poland, Czechoslovakia, the Baltic states and possibly Hungary. This could be an Intermarium that is separate from the EU and NATO, and while it would not provide a separate free trade area or collective defense area, it would provide a bridge for Ukraine to the West.

Moreover, the benefit to the NATO/EU members of establishing an Intermarium with Ukraine would be that the EU and NATO seems less and less interested in its eastern flank, and in 5, 10, 15 or 20 years, there may be no probability that Italy, Spain, France or Germany would come to the rescue of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland.