Russo-Ukraine War 2017 (January-April)

**Azor** · 01-09-2017

Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

If you have been following the Ukrainian thread since Crimea....the initial Russia invasion of Donbass was well on the other side of 15,000 troops all taken from their professional contract side of the house...some estimates placed the number closer to 17,000.

After the UAF was soundly beaten in an 2014 encirclement most of the invasion troops withdrew to just over the border...leaving a remaining 11,000 inside...that number has sunken to around 5-8,000 depending on what Russia is trying to pressure Ukraine on....

Remember in the initial Russian invasion UAF artillery mainly BM27s caught a Russian mech brigade on the move and Russian loses with wounded were in the range of 200 and ten were captured...virtually wiping out a Tactical BN....

Currently a stable 5,000 is in place...largely separatist unit commanders and XOs and logistics support...coupled with a Spetsnaz Brigade with artillery and armored units .....with elements of recce (UAV/EW) and logistics.....a large number of Russian trainers are "hidden" in the separatist units....

I have been retro posting info that now is being taken from Russian VK accounts and Ukrainian social media analysts are slowly piecing together the actual invasion units....and they talk about brigades not BNs......meaning multiple different BNs forming a common Russian brigade under command of that actual brigade commander...

Right now there is a stand off with spetsnaz...Russian spetsnaz has not launched any attacks in over two full months due to an ambush that caught and killed two full teams and the Russians are unsure just how the UAF found them...

Your last question is easy to answer....they are considered to be combat trained and experienced and if they are Russian usually spetsnaz, artillery and recce (UAV/EW types)....if separatists then with Russian PMU Wagner...

I have been following the thread since Crimea, but I’m going by estimates from Philip Karber of the Potomac Foundation, who has covered Russia’s invasion extensively: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WA1rP5WGfY

I gather that he was referring specifically to regular professional contract soldiers operating in BTGs, rather than the horde of Russian and local mercenaries of varying skills leavened with SF and intelligence operators (e.g. advisors and trainers).

Overall, I would expect that Russian regulars, irregulars and mercenaries combined total some 15,000 to 17,000, or ~38% of the total insurgent fighting strength.

I also agree that the insurgents are incapable of mounting a successful major offensive (e.g. capturing Mariupol or Kharkiv) without direct and obvious Russian intervention, particularly with airpower and artillery support. Yet the insurgents seem more than capable of blunting a Ukrainian offensive until clandestine Russian reinforcements arrive to shore up the front.

**OUTLAW 09** · 01-11-2017

Originally Posted by Azor

I have been following the thread since Crimea, but I’m going by estimates from Philip Karber of the Potomac Foundation, who has covered Russia’s invasion extensively: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WA1rP5WGfY

I gather that he was referring specifically to regular professional contract soldiers operating in BTGs, rather than the horde of Russian and local mercenaries of varying skills leavened with SF and intelligence operators (e.g. advisors and trainers).

Overall, I would expect that Russian regulars, irregulars and mercenaries combined total some 15,000 to 17,000, or ~38% of the total insurgent fighting strength.

I also agree that the insurgents are incapable of mounting a successful major offensive (e.g. capturing Mariupol or Kharkiv) without direct and obvious Russian intervention, particularly with airpower and artillery support. Yet the insurgents seem more than capable of blunting a Ukrainian offensive until clandestine Russian reinforcements arrive to shore up the front.

NOTE...during the recent quick UAF push to take "grey area" on the Minsk 2 frontline..actually in all Minsk 2 maps this grey area was actually Ukrainian..they were able to grab the area before the Russians and or mercenaries could react and then held it against all subsequent attacks to recapture it....much to the surprise of the Russians....

**OUTLAW 09** · 01-11-2017

German intellig. agency:#cyber attack on #OSCE with same tools as 2015 attack on Bundestag by RU hacking group APT28
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge...idUSKBN14T1SZ#

Reference the crashed TU-154 heading to Syria.......

Today
https://m.lenta.ru/news/2017/01/10/konashenkov/#
… they deny mistake, pilots were experienced.

Russia has initially sited possible pilot error as the cause of the crash.....

Tu154 crash has made different siloviki clans on war footing by accusing via scapegoats each other in the accident.
https://lenta.ru/news/2017/01/10/konashenkov/#

Russian Komsomolska Pravda: Sochi Tu-154 could be destroyed cause of "damage inside luggage compartment"
http://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2017/...u154-could-be#

There was a single solitary lone by itself comment that alluded to the fact that a lot of Russian hybrid warfare experience was destroyed with the crash....SO who was exactly on the plane when it went do that is not being reflected on the passenger list....???