Russo-Ukraine War 2017 (January-April)

[Azor]

Azor.....
#Russia has capacity to start two large-scale mil operations in parallel, mobilizing up to 150 000 troops @FOIresearch

If so, then why did the Russians rely upon one Spetsnaz brigade to secure Crimea in early 2014, out of 25,000 Russian soldiers in Crimea? Why did it take 40,000 Russian soldiers massed on Ukraine's eastern borders only generate 9,000 men in Battalion Tactical Groups in Donbas? Why are Russian soldiers from the Donbas being sent to Syria?

[OUTLAW 09]

If so, then why did the Russians rely upon one Spetsnaz brigade to secure Crimea in early 2014, out of 25,000 Russian soldiers in Crimea? Why did it take 40,000 Russian soldiers massed on Ukraine's eastern borders only generate 9,000 men in Battalion Tactical Groups in Donbas? Why are Russian soldiers from the Donbas being sent to Syria?

If you have been following the Ukrainian thread since Crimea....the initial Russia invasion of Donbass was well on the other side of 15,000 troops all taken from their professional contract side of the house...some estimates placed the number closer to 17,000.

After the UAF was soundly beaten in an 2014 encirclement most of the invasion troops withdrew to just over the border...leaving a remaining 11,000 inside...that number has sunken to around 5-8,000 depending on what Russia is trying to pressure Ukraine on....

Remember in the initial Russian invasion UAF artillery mainly BM27s caught a Russian mech brigade on the move and Russian loses with wounded were in the range of 200 and ten were captured...virtually wiping out a Tactical BN....

Currently a stable 5,000 is in place...largely separatist unit commanders and XOs and logistics support...coupled with a Spetsnaz Brigade with artillery and armored units .....with elements of recce (UAV/EW) and logistics.....a large number of Russian trainers are "hidden" in the separatist units....

I have been retro posting info that now is being taken from Russian VK accounts and Ukrainian social media analysts are slowly piecing together the actual invasion units....and they talk about brigades not BNs......meaning multiple different BNs forming a common Russian brigade under command of that actual brigade commander...

Right now there is a stand off with spetsnaz...Russian spetsnaz has not launched any attacks in over two full months due to an ambush that caught and killed two full teams and the Russians are unsure just how the UAF found them...

Your last question is easy to answer....they are considered to be combat trained and experienced and if they are Russian usually spetsnaz, artillery and recce (UAV/EW types)....if separatists then with Russian PMU Wagner...

[OUTLAW 09]

Dutch proRussian blogger Spekkers, who was at Donbas illegally. Detained at Schiphol airport with possible human remains ...they were going to try to discredit the Dutch MH17 investigation.....the question remains on just how they were able to get human remains of the passengers????
http://europe.liveuamap.com/en/2017/...with-possible#

Ukrainian SBU tipped the Dutch to their arrival....

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian state propaganda mock Baltic states on getting status of Northern Europe by asking will living standard raise or just taxes.

We are now seeing a Russian winter ground offensive for the last week....attacks are averaging over 50 per day now....

Russian proxies attack Ukraine 51 times in last dayhttp://www.unian.info/war/1715151-ru...last-day.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

Something's cooking?

Russian propaganda screams Ukraine pushing civilians to the front as human shields.

TYPICAL Russian ploy....say and complain the UAF is doing it...WHEN in fact they are doing it....

[OUTLAW 09]

Fugitive and Former Ukrainian Prime Minister, Nikolai Azarov declares Ukrainian gov in exile could be formedhttp://tass.com/world/924009

[OUTLAW 09]

If you have been following the Ukrainian thread since Crimea....the initial Russia invasion of Donbass was well on the other side of 15,000 troops all taken from their professional contract side of the house...some estimates placed the number closer to 17,000.

After the UAF was soundly beaten in an 2014 encirclement most of the invasion troops withdrew to just over the border...leaving a remaining 11,000 inside...that number has sunken to around 5-8,000 depending on what Russia is trying to pressure Ukraine on....

Remember in the initial Russian invasion UAF artillery mainly BM27s caught a Russian mech brigade on the move and Russian loses with wounded were in the range of 200 and ten were captured...virtually wiping out a Tactical BN....

Currently a stable 5,000 is in place...largely separatist unit commanders and XOs and logistics support...coupled with a Spetsnaz Brigade with artillery and armored units .....with elements of recce (UAV/EW) and logistics.....a large number of Russian trainers are "hidden" in the separatist units....

I have been retro posting info that now is being taken from Russian VK accounts and Ukrainian social media analysts are slowly piecing together the actual invasion units....and they talk about brigades not BNs......meaning multiple different BNs forming a common Russian brigade under command of that actual brigade commander...

Right now there is a stand off with spetsnaz...Russian spetsnaz has not launched any attacks in over two full months due to an ambush that caught and killed two full teams and the Russians are unsure just how the UAF found them...

Your last question is easy to answer....they are considered to be combat trained and experienced and if they are Russian usually spetsnaz, artillery and recce (UAV/EW types)....if separatists then with Russian PMU Wagner...

Russian tankist published the team from the 17th OMSBr (rus letters) with who he fought in Donbass (rus)
https://informnapalm.org/31443-tanki...v-17-j-omsbr/#

[OUTLAW 09]

#Debaltseve: Can hear heavy rumble

Northern #Donetsk: Heavy artillery working

#Avdeevka: Heaviest shelling/fighting since New Year

[Azor]

If you have been following the Ukrainian thread since Crimea....the initial Russia invasion of Donbass was well on the other side of 15,000 troops all taken from their professional contract side of the house...some estimates placed the number closer to 17,000.

After the UAF was soundly beaten in an 2014 encirclement most of the invasion troops withdrew to just over the border...leaving a remaining 11,000 inside...that number has sunken to around 5-8,000 depending on what Russia is trying to pressure Ukraine on....

Remember in the initial Russian invasion UAF artillery mainly BM27s caught a Russian mech brigade on the move and Russian loses with wounded were in the range of 200 and ten were captured...virtually wiping out a Tactical BN....

Currently a stable 5,000 is in place...largely separatist unit commanders and XOs and logistics support...coupled with a Spetsnaz Brigade with artillery and armored units .....with elements of recce (UAV/EW) and logistics.....a large number of Russian trainers are "hidden" in the separatist units....

I have been retro posting info that now is being taken from Russian VK accounts and Ukrainian social media analysts are slowly piecing together the actual invasion units....and they talk about brigades not BNs......meaning multiple different BNs forming a common Russian brigade under command of that actual brigade commander...

Right now there is a stand off with spetsnaz...Russian spetsnaz has not launched any attacks in over two full months due to an ambush that caught and killed two full teams and the Russians are unsure just how the UAF found them...

Your last question is easy to answer....they are considered to be combat trained and experienced and if they are Russian usually spetsnaz, artillery and recce (UAV/EW types)....if separatists then with Russian PMU Wagner...

I have been following the thread since Crimea, but I’m going by estimates from Philip Karber of the Potomac Foundation, who has covered Russia’s invasion extensively: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WA1rP5WGfY

I gather that he was referring specifically to regular professional contract soldiers operating in BTGs, rather than the horde of Russian and local mercenaries of varying skills leavened with SF and intelligence operators (e.g. advisors and trainers).

Overall, I would expect that Russian regulars, irregulars and mercenaries combined total some 15,000 to 17,000, or ~38% of the total insurgent fighting strength.

I also agree that the insurgents are incapable of mounting a successful major offensive (e.g. capturing Mariupol or Kharkiv) without direct and obvious Russian intervention, particularly with airpower and artillery support. Yet the insurgents seem more than capable of blunting a Ukrainian offensive until clandestine Russian reinforcements arrive to shore up the front.

[OUTLAW 09]

Five Ukrainian Soldiers Wounded Yesterday While Three More Go Missing
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-1057/

NOW a total of FIVE UAF have gone missing assumed captured....but how is not being said....suspect Russian spetsnaz hard at work.....

[Azor]

Photo shows large amount of Russian tanks and military vehicles in Rostov Oblast near Ukraine

[OUTLAW 09]

Vodiane village fired upon by Russian troops in 46 attacks on Ukrainian positions over last 24 hrs

New units keep popping up in #Russia. New tank regiment created and attached to the 1st #tank #army

[OUTLAW 09]

It's just about a short power outage. Someone might be using Ukraine as a testbed to attack other nations.
https://motherboard.vice.com/read/uk...rce=mbtwitter#

The power outage in Ukraine last month has now been confirmed as a cyberattack.
http://bit.ly/2j41YB7

Strong battle activity in #Makeevka, #Avdeevka and #Vuhlehirsk this afternoon

After a brief lull, battle continues now at Promka, #Avdiivka.

[OUTLAW 09]

In 2016, Russia spent 3/4 of reserves, money left max for 1,5 years. Putin may attack #Ukraine to divert attention. http://minfin.ru/ru/press-center/pri...=2119&popup=Y#

[OUTLAW 09]

CSIS Missile Defense @Missile_Defense
New Interactive: The Russia - NATO A2AD Environment
https://missilethreat.csis.org/russi...-environment/#

[OUTLAW 09]

It's just about a short power outage. Someone might be using Ukraine as a testbed to attack other nations.
https://motherboard.vice.com/read/uk...rce=mbtwitter#

The power outage in Ukraine last month has now been confirmed as a cyberattack.
http://bit.ly/2j41YB7

Strong battle activity in #Makeevka, #Avdeevka and #Vuhlehirsk this afternoon

After a brief lull, battle continues now at Promka, #Avdiivka.

Once again we are witnessing an alarming escalation in fighting in Ukraine. Is Russia preparing a new offensive?

[OUTLAW 09]

Ukrainian National Guard field medic captured in occupied Donetsk
http://www.unian.info/war/1718481-uk...-donetsk.html#

[OUTLAW 09]

I have been following the thread since Crimea, but I’m going by estimates from Philip Karber of the Potomac Foundation, who has covered Russia’s invasion extensively: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8WA1rP5WGfY

I gather that he was referring specifically to regular professional contract soldiers operating in BTGs, rather than the horde of Russian and local mercenaries of varying skills leavened with SF and intelligence operators (e.g. advisors and trainers).

Overall, I would expect that Russian regulars, irregulars and mercenaries combined total some 15,000 to 17,000, or ~38% of the total insurgent fighting strength.

I also agree that the insurgents are incapable of mounting a successful major offensive (e.g. capturing Mariupol or Kharkiv) without direct and obvious Russian intervention, particularly with airpower and artillery support. Yet the insurgents seem more than capable of blunting a Ukrainian offensive until clandestine Russian reinforcements arrive to shore up the front.

NOTE...during the recent quick UAF push to take "grey area" on the Minsk 2 frontline..actually in all Minsk 2 maps this grey area was actually Ukrainian..they were able to grab the area before the Russians and or mercenaries could react and then held it against all subsequent attacks to recapture it....much to the surprise of the Russians....

[OUTLAW 09]

German intellig. agency:#cyber attack on #OSCE with same tools as 2015 attack on Bundestag by RU hacking group APT28
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge...idUSKBN14T1SZ#


Reference the crashed TU-154 heading to Syria.......

Today
https://m.lenta.ru/news/2017/01/10/konashenkov/#
… they deny mistake, pilots were experienced.

Russia has initially sited possible pilot error as the cause of the crash.....

Tu154 crash has made different siloviki clans on war footing by accusing via scapegoats each other in the accident.
https://lenta.ru/news/2017/01/10/konashenkov/#

Russian Komsomolska Pravda: Sochi Tu-154 could be destroyed cause of "damage inside luggage compartment"
http://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2017/...u154-could-be#

There was a single solitary lone by itself comment that alluded to the fact that a lot of Russian hybrid warfare experience was destroyed with the crash....SO who was exactly on the plane when it went do that is not being reflected on the passenger list....???

[OUTLAW 09]

49 Russian supported mercenary attacks on UAF positions..1 KIA...3 WIA