Quote Originally Posted by AdamG View Post
Beijing does not think it straight lines - they won't fight ship-vs-ship, particularly if they know they have a disadvantage. They will use apple corers to fight oranges, then move their own apples into the power vacuum that's left behind.
Yet if US surface ships don't have effective ASuW capabilities, they only burden the CAW and SS(G)Ns with these roles, in addition to their other missions.

If the PLAN's anti-ship missiles are countered, their surface fleet is only useful for air defense given that its anti-submarine skills are poor.

The PLA is cautious and seemingly aware of its lack of operational experience, particularly in the areas of precision-strike, combined arms and C4ISR.

Therefore, it is reasonable to expect them to rely upon their land-based cruise missiles (ballistic missiles being too risky and held in reserve) in a surprise attack to cripple US forces in the Western Pacific. If this blow fails, however, I think that the PLA would crumble and refocus on defending the mainland.