The Baltic states (catch all)

[kaur]

Stratfor's Friedman has couple thoughts about NATO problem.

The German Question

So while Germany remains committed to its economic relationship with the West, it does not intend to enter into a military commitment against the Russians at this time. If the Americans want to send troops to protect the Baltics and Poland, they are welcome to do so. Germany has no objection — nor do they object to a French or British presence there. Indeed, once such forces were committed, Germany might reconsider its position. But since military deployments in significant numbers are unlikely anytime soon, the Germans view grand U.S. statements about expanded NATO membership as mere bravado by a Washington that is prepared to risk little.

NATO has no real military power to project to the east, and none can be created without a major German effort, which is not forthcoming. The German shift leaves the Baltic countries exposed and extremely worried, as they should be. It also leaves the Poles in their traditional position of counting on countries far away to guarantee their national security. In 1939, Warsaw counted on the British and French; today, Warsaw depends on the United States. As in 1939, these guarantees are tenuous, but they are all the Poles have.

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20081006_german_question

[kaur]

make Swedes worry ...

Foreword

In spring 2007 Estonia was subjected to an Internet blockade
lasting several weeks. During this time the net did
not work normally. It became hard to reach authorities
and the mass media via the Internet, for a brief period
Internet banks had to interrupt their business, and for
several extended periods it was hard to communicate
with the rest of the world via the Internet.

How would Sweden cope with a similar situation?

http://www.krisberedskapsmyndigheten...ser_2008-2.pdf

[kaur]

This exercise started yesterday in Estonia.

Singing Revolution

The Singing Revolution is a commonly used name for events between 1987 and 1991 that led to the restoration of the independence of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.[

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singing_Revolution

Estonian song and dance celebration 2014. Almost 100 000 participants.

http://2014.laulupidu.ee/en/

[kaur]

Supersize panoramic photo from the event. Use the buttons on the right hand. Maximize the photo to full screen ja use the mouse.

http://laulupidu.postimees.ee/284734...rast-laulupidu

[davidbfpo]

More of an update on the theme of non-violence and the Open Democracy article's title is 'Countering hybrid war: civil resistance as a national defence strategy':https://www.opendemocracy.net/civilr...efence-strateg

The first paragraph:

Since the annexation of Crimea and the start of conflict in eastern Ukraine, the Russian form of hybrid war that spearheaded these events has raised significant concerns among eastern European states about an effective response to non-traditional warfare. Russia’s hybrid war – a term meaning a mixture of conventional and irregular warfare – has presented a vexing problem to conventional armed defense. It also demonstrates the need to determine whether a national strategy of nonviolent civilian defence can be a viable option for the current and potential victims of hybrid war to fight back non-militarily.

Puzzled by this reported opinion polling in Poland:

A recent opinion poll in Poland, however, showed a far more nuanced gamut of responses. Last month, the survey asked Poles what they would do if their state faced armed invasion by another country. Tellingly, 37 percent of respondents – the equivalent of almost 12 million Polish adults if applied to the nation’s population – said they would resist foreign aggression “not by fighting with arms, but by engaging in other, non-military activities.” Only 27 percent declared it would take up arms. The remaining would emigrate, were undecided or would surrender.

[BrentWilliams]

I thought this was interesting enough to start a new thread. The base question is broader then the thread title, I think. Basically, will Russia expand its aggressive behavior to NATO members?

http://www.vox.com/2014/9/5/6110037/...icer-kidnapped

On Friday morning, less than 48 hours after President Obama delivered a speech in Estonia warning that Russian aggression against Estonia could trigger war with the US and NATO, Russian security forces have seized an officer with Estonia's state security bureau at gunpoint and taken him into Russia.

Estonia says the officer was kidnapped (or "abducted") on Estonian soil and taken across by force. Moscow says the Estonian officer was on Russian soil and detained with a gun, 5,000 euros and "materials that have the character of an intelligence mission." Nearby Estonian police radios were reportedly jammed during the incident.

[davidbfpo]

A British report on the incident adds more context:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...MCNEWEML6619I2

[carl]

Yes, Russia will expand its aggression toward everybody everywhere. They will continue to do so and increase the level until they are stopped, physically stopped-as in a crook isn't stopped until a cop collars him or the neighbors beat him up. Since Russia is a dictatorship, that means Putin himself has to be hurt. That means a lot of Russians have to die and a lot have to be impoverished through actions of the West and not so West. That will hurt him politically. And he had to be hit in his wallet. That is probably much more easily done than people think because I suspect most of his billions are not in Russia but in the West. What fool would keep most of his money in Russia? So his money could be got at.

Of course it will take a little bit of nerve on the part of the West to do that. Just a little. And that is the tragic part of this whole thing, it wouldn't take much but we can't even get up the little nerve it would take. This is like the scene in Of Mice and Men where Curly is punching Lenny in the face but Lenny doesn't reach down and break his hand, he just continues to take it.

David, there is one thing I haven't seen commented on given Russia's newly found appetite for mischief making. I haven't seen anybody comment on the possibility of them attempting to take advantage of separatist sentiment in Great Britain. Have you seen anything about that?

[davidbfpo]

Carl asked:

David, there is one thing I haven't seen commented on given Russia's newly found appetite for mischief making. I haven't seen anybody comment on the possibility of them attempting to take advantage of separatist sentiment in Great Britain. Have you seen anything about that?

I have not spotted any such coverage; to be fair I do not follow RT for example. As the referendum day gets closer media coverage is growing e.g. BBC World Service has an Arab reporter there.

[davidbfpo]

Amongst all the nations wondering what their future is as Russia asserts itself Estonia has a special perspective and fear that NATO will not protect it one day.

This short paper (8 pgs) by an Estonian author 'Nothing New in Hybrid Warfare: The Estonian Experience and Recommendations for NATO' offers:

This brief describes current and historic thinking about hybrid warfare, arguing that hybrid tactics are not as new as it often may seem. Based on Estonia’s example, this brief outlines some counter-action activities that can be initiated at the national level. Finally, it suggests action NATO could take against the hybrid threat during the time between the summits in Wales and Warsaw in 2014 and 2016

Link:http://www.gmfus.org/wp-content/blog...onia_Feb15.pdf

[davidbfpo]

In January 2015, the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense published a manual for the Lithuanian people to use in case of a foreign invasion. It notes that “citizens can resist aggression against their country not only through armed [struggle]. Civilian-based defense or nonviolent civil resistance is another way for citizens’ resistance against aggression. (…) This method is especially important for threats of hybrid war.” The Lithuania manual statement captures the essence of this study: recognition of the threat to European countries of unconventional warfare launched by Russia, understanding of the limitations inherent in armed response, and acknowledgement of the potential of nonviolent resistance in countering aggressive hybrid war.

Link:http://advanced.jhu.edu/academics/gr...ej-bartkowski/

[Azor]

In Opinion: Putin’s next land grab looks like the Suwalki Gap
http://europe.newsweek.com/putin-rus...-426155?rm=eu#

Lithuanian private army of 'elves against trolls' to combat Russian influence online
https://apnews.com/27ce7f001bde4ccb9415ce4a0de74af1#

This is just silly. Since when has Putin decided that NATO is fair game? Neither Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine or Syria are NATO members. The Suwalki Gap would only be important if Russia and NATO went to war: not before.

[OUTLAW 09]

This is just silly. Since when has Putin decided that NATO is fair game? Neither Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine or Syria are NATO members. The Suwalki Gap would only be important if Russia and NATO went to war: not before.

I think if one reads the article carefully they were writing it from the Russian non linear perspective...meaning playing the ethnic minority card much as Russian plays the "protect the Russian speakers" card initially if one remembers in both Crimea and Donbass....

[Azor]

I think if one reads the article carefully they were writing it from the Russian non linear perspective...meaning playing the ethnic minority card much as Russian plays the "protect the Russian speakers" card initially if one remembers in both Crimea and Donbass....

Well, the two Polish counties that comprise the Polish side of the Suwalki Gap contain 136,000 people, of which 47,000 are ethnic Belorussians (35%) and 5,900 are ethnic Lithuanians (4%). In the greater Voivodeship, there are over 1,137,000 Poles, comprising 96% of the population.

In Lithuania, the ethnic Russians are far from the Suwalki Gap...

Therefore, I don't see much room for Russia stirring up trouble Donbas-style...

The only way for Russia to seize the Suwalki Gap is by direct military force against Lithuania and/or Poland.

[OUTLAW 09]

Well, the two Polish counties that comprise the Polish side of the Suwalki Gap contain 136,000 people, of which 47,000 are ethnic Belorussians (35%) and 5,900 are ethnic Lithuanians (4%). In the greater Voivodeship, there are over 1,137,000 Poles, comprising 96% of the population.

In Lithuania, the ethnic Russians are far from the Suwalki Gap...

Therefore, I don't see much room for Russia stirring up trouble Donbas-style...

The only way for Russia to seize the Suwalki Gap is by direct military force against Lithuania and/or Poland.

Right now Russia has an intensive info war campaign in gear in an attempt to raise issues/distrust between Lithuanians and Polish ethnic groups...

[Azor]

Right now Russia has an intensive info war campaign in gear in an attempt to raise issues/distrust between Lithuanians and Polish ethnic groups...

Poles and Lithuanians have always had differences. I can't think of any major grievances that Putin can exploit. Moreover, Poland and Lithuania have taken the lead in building unity along NATO's eastern flank and supporting Ukraine. If Poland can put aside the loss of Lwow and the legacy of the OUN in order to help Ukraine in its negotiations with Moscow and Brussels and to help defend itself, then I'm sure Lithuania and Poland can get along...

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor.....heads up....Russian non linear warfare is now officially afoot in the Baltics....remember the "Gap".....

Kremlin activated its local assets, established new #Russian speaking party - #Estonian National Party (ENP)
http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudise...t?id=76828876#
…

[OUTLAW 09]

Moscow Lacks a Plan to Ensure Kaliningrad Region’s Security, Regnum News Agency Says
http://www.interpretermag.com/january-6-2017-2/#15885#

[Azor]

Moscow Lacks a Plan to Ensure Kaliningrad Region’s Security, Regnum News Agency Says
http://www.interpretermag.com/january-6-2017-2/#15885#

Putin will build a nuclear reactor in Kaliningrad, just as soon as he finishes the bridge across the Kerch Strait and ensures that 70% of Russian military equipment is "modern".

Kaliningrad is both an asset and a liability, not unlike Taiwan.

[Azor]

Azor.....heads up....Russian non linear warfare is now officially afoot in the Baltics....remember the "Gap".....

Kremlin activated its local assets, established new #Russian speaking party - #Estonian National Party (ENP)
http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudise...t?id=76828876#
…

Yes, and that gap is in Poland and Lithuania, hundreds of clicks to the south. Good luck in those marshes Comrades!