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Thread: The Baltic states (catch all)

  1. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    In Opinion: Putinís next land grab looks like the Suwalki Gap
    http://europe.newsweek.com/putin-rus...-426155?rm=eu#

    Lithuanian private army of 'elves against trolls' to combat Russian influence online
    https://apnews.com/27ce7f001bde4ccb9415ce4a0de74af1#
    This is just silly. Since when has Putin decided that NATO is fair game? Neither Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine or Syria are NATO members. The Suwalki Gap would only be important if Russia and NATO went to war: not before.

  2. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    This is just silly. Since when has Putin decided that NATO is fair game? Neither Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine or Syria are NATO members. The Suwalki Gap would only be important if Russia and NATO went to war: not before.
    I think if one reads the article carefully they were writing it from the Russian non linear perspective...meaning playing the ethnic minority card much as Russian plays the "protect the Russian speakers" card initially if one remembers in both Crimea and Donbass....

  3. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    I think if one reads the article carefully they were writing it from the Russian non linear perspective...meaning playing the ethnic minority card much as Russian plays the "protect the Russian speakers" card initially if one remembers in both Crimea and Donbass....
    Well, the two Polish counties that comprise the Polish side of the Suwalki Gap contain 136,000 people, of which 47,000 are ethnic Belorussians (35%) and 5,900 are ethnic Lithuanians (4%). In the greater Voivodeship, there are over 1,137,000 Poles, comprising 96% of the population.

    In Lithuania, the ethnic Russians are far from the Suwalki Gap...

    Therefore, I don't see much room for Russia stirring up trouble Donbas-style...

    The only way for Russia to seize the Suwalki Gap is by direct military force against Lithuania and/or Poland.

  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Well, the two Polish counties that comprise the Polish side of the Suwalki Gap contain 136,000 people, of which 47,000 are ethnic Belorussians (35%) and 5,900 are ethnic Lithuanians (4%). In the greater Voivodeship, there are over 1,137,000 Poles, comprising 96% of the population.

    In Lithuania, the ethnic Russians are far from the Suwalki Gap...

    Therefore, I don't see much room for Russia stirring up trouble Donbas-style...

    The only way for Russia to seize the Suwalki Gap is by direct military force against Lithuania and/or Poland.
    Right now Russia has an intensive info war campaign in gear in an attempt to raise issues/distrust between Lithuanians and Polish ethnic groups...

  5. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Right now Russia has an intensive info war campaign in gear in an attempt to raise issues/distrust between Lithuanians and Polish ethnic groups...
    Poles and Lithuanians have always had differences. I can't think of any major grievances that Putin can exploit. Moreover, Poland and Lithuania have taken the lead in building unity along NATO's eastern flank and supporting Ukraine. If Poland can put aside the loss of Lwow and the legacy of the OUN in order to help Ukraine in its negotiations with Moscow and Brussels and to help defend itself, then I'm sure Lithuania and Poland can get along...

  6. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Poles and Lithuanians have always had differences. I can't think of any major grievances that Putin can exploit. Moreover, Poland and Lithuania have taken the lead in building unity along NATO's eastern flank and supporting Ukraine. If Poland can put aside the loss of Lwow and the legacy of the OUN in order to help Ukraine in its negotiations with Moscow and Brussels and to help defend itself, then I'm sure Lithuania and Poland can get along...
    Azor...actually agree with this...But and there is always a but when dealing with Russia....that does not stop them from conducting their ongoing info war at the two ethnic groups in the hope of stirring up internal trouble.....

  7. #107
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    Azor.....heads up....Russian non linear warfare is now officially afoot in the Baltics....remember the "Gap".....

    Kremlin activated its local assets, established new #Russian speaking party - #Estonian National Party (ENP)
    http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudise...t?id=76828876#
    Ö

  8. #108
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    Moscow Lacks a Plan to Ensure Kaliningrad Regionís Security, Regnum News Agency Says
    http://www.interpretermag.com/january-6-2017-2/#15885#

  9. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Moscow Lacks a Plan to Ensure Kaliningrad Regionís Security, Regnum News Agency Says
    http://www.interpretermag.com/january-6-2017-2/#15885#
    Putin will build a nuclear reactor in Kaliningrad, just as soon as he finishes the bridge across the Kerch Strait and ensures that 70% of Russian military equipment is "modern".

    Kaliningrad is both an asset and a liability, not unlike Taiwan.

  10. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Azor.....heads up....Russian non linear warfare is now officially afoot in the Baltics....remember the "Gap".....

    Kremlin activated its local assets, established new #Russian speaking party - #Estonian National Party (ENP)
    http://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudise...t?id=76828876#
    Ö
    Yes, and that gap is in Poland and Lithuania, hundreds of clicks to the south. Good luck in those marshes Comrades!

  11. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    Yes, and that gap is in Poland and Lithuania, hundreds of clicks to the south. Good luck in those marshes Comrades!
    Azor...but wait you must give Putin a super A for at least an effort....the inertia of non linear warfare is interesting...appears that once Russia started it formerly in their military annexation of Crimea they cannot seem to either stop it or slow it down....appears to have taken on a life of it's own these days and Russia attempts to implement it everywhere.....a sort of throw the mud on the wall and let's see if it sticks.....

  12. #112
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    A small number of recent posts in the Ukraine at War 2017 thread referring to the Baltic states and Poland have been moved here just.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-07-2017 at 11:53 AM. Reason: 62,698v
    davidbfpo

  13. #113
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    Malofeev, #Russian orthodox billionaire, in 2014, bankrolled #Crimea annexation & Eastern #Ukraine campaign.
    https://twitter.com/VeikoSpolitis/st...3048089030656#

  14. #114
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    NOW it starts AGAIN........

    'Russian Dawn' Leader: Ethnic Russians in Latvia Live Under 'Apartheid'
    http://www.polygraph.info/a/28298687.html
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-10-2017 at 06:23 PM. Reason: Moved from Ukraine at War thread.

  15. #115
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    OSW Warsaw ThinkTank @OSW_eng
    Kaliningrad’s significance for Russia and its special
    characteristics.
    https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje...nomy-and-army#
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-12-2017 at 01:21 PM.

  16. #116
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    Sudden test of readiness of military forces along Russia's Nordic/Baltic borders. Readiness for what?

    Russian battle readiness check will last 1,5 months! Troops from Buryatiya also taking part (Eastern Mil Distrct)

    In addition to Air Force battle readiness check, now it's all units of Western Russia. From Finland to Ukraine and Poland

    NOTE: Had this been happening in say 1986....NATO would be upping the alert status as this is a solid indicator of pre war Russian maneuver buildup....

    Russian Western Military district on sudden battle readiness check
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-14-2017 at 09:52 PM. Reason: Moved from Ukraine thread

  17. #117
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    Russian Cruise Missile, Deployed Secretly, Violates Treaty

    https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/02/1...co/l4Af7io7i6#
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-14-2017 at 09:52 PM. Reason: Moved from Ukraine thread

  18. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Russian Cruise Missile, Deployed Secretly, Violates Treaty

    https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/02/1...co/l4Af7io7i6#
    Here is a good article from GlobalSecurity on the subject: http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/wo...ssia/ssc-8.htm

    Development of a new missile might be an effort to ensure nuclear parity with China, which is not a signatory to the treaty and within range of such weapons.

    Daryl Kimball, head of the Arms Control Association, the private research organization, said “There are some in Russia’s defense establishment who are itching to find ways to either get around or break out of the INF treaty so that Russia can counter these other kinds of short and medium-range ballistic missile opponents.”
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-14-2017 at 09:52 PM. Reason: Moved from Ukraine thread

  19. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Sudden test of readiness of military forces along Russia's Nordic/Baltic borders. Readiness for what?

    Russian battle readiness check will last 1,5 months! Troops from Buryatiya also taking part (Eastern Mil Distrct)

    In addition to Air Force battle readiness check, now it's all units of Western Russia. From Finland to Ukraine and Poland

    NOTE: Had this been happening in say 1986....NATO would be upping the alert status as this is a solid indicator of pre war Russian maneuver buildup....

    Russian Western Military district on sudden battle readiness check
    Splendid #Russia army is concentrating attack ready combat troops 80km from #Finland border, 110km from my home.

    APPEARS that a single Russian BN has been moved far closer that 70kms from the Finnish border...

  20. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    A small number of recent posts in the Ukraine at War 2017 thread referring to the Baltic states and Poland have been moved here just.
    Reversion to the mean?

    Expect the standard deviation of the Ukraine thread to remain high

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