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Thread: North Korea 2017 onwards

  1. #1
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Default North Korea 2017 onwards

    North Korea got 2017 off to a menacing start. In his New Year's address, supreme leader Kim Jong Un warned that the nation was in the "final stage" of preparations to test an intercontinental ballistic missile.
    A day later, President-elect Donald Trump said the North would never develop a nuclear weapon capable of striking the U.S. "It won't happen!" Trump tweeted.
    Bombast aside, independent arms control experts agree that North Korea is moving rapidly to develop an ICBM. And many suspect it will test a missile capable of reaching the continental U.S. later this year.
    http://www.npr.org/sections/parallel...oming-together

    'Alibi fire' from March.

    Washington (CNN)Some U.S. intelligence analysts now believe that North Korea "probably" possesses a miniaturized nuclear warhead, several U.S. officials told CNN.
    The assessment has yet to become a formal consensus view of the U.S. government. But it reveals just how far along many in the U.S. believe the reclusive country has come to gaining a nuclear-tipped ballistic missile that could potentially strike the U.S.
    http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/24/politi...clear-warhead/

    Quote Originally Posted by Azor View Post
    When these sorts of ideas are entertained by CSIS panelists, you can be assured that this is no joke.

    Perhaps this is a message to Beijing that it needs to come to Jesus?
    Color me cynical and brace for stupid#### happening
    Last edited by AdamG; 01-06-2017 at 09:23 PM.
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    Default North Korea 2017 onwards

    A new thread as the older Korean thread has 513 posts with 168k views for 2006-2016. Prompted by the next post. A small number of old closed threads have been merged in.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-09-2017 at 11:21 PM.
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    Default Should we really be so afraid of a nuclear North Korea?

    A different point of view from two academics who specialize in Korean matters, one American, one in the UK. Two paragraphs near the start:
    Successive US governments have used a range of carrots and sticks to entice or pressure the North Korean leadership to give up its nuclear programme. The North’s missile launches and nuclear tests in 2016 make plain that these efforts have failed; in short, the West has to accept that it is now a nuclear power and focus instead on limiting the risks a nuclear North Korea presents. But it also pays to consider what sounds like a perverse question: could a North Korean bomb actually benefit both the country’s people and the world at large?
    They conclude:
    As far as Pyongyang is concerned, its militaristic strategy has worked: It has kept the Kim government internally stable, the population dependent on the government, and the country’s enemies at bay. Accepting the country’s nuclear status, rather than trying to head it off with sanctions and threats, could bring it back to the diplomatic bargaining table.
    Link:https://theconversation.com/should-we-really-be-so-afraid-of-a-nuclear-north-korea-71855?

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    North Korea has fired a ballistic missile in the first such test since Donald Trump took office as US president.
    Mr Trump assured Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that "America stands behind Japan, its great ally, 100%".
    The missile flew east towards the Sea of Japan for about 500km (300 miles), South Korean officials say.
    Mr Abe said the test was "absolutely intolerable". Japanese officials say the missile did not reach its waters.
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-3...e=news_central
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    A new thread as the older Korean thread has 513 posts with 168k views for 2006-2016. Prompted by the next post. A small number of old closed threads have been merged in.
    Hey now, at least import the contextualizing post, the one with twenty seven 8-by-10 color glossy pictures with circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back.

    Quote Originally Posted by AdamG View Post
    The NorKs keep threatening to hit the mainland USA. You don't need a long range missile for that, if you can move the firing platform right up to the target's front stoop.

    See http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/nd-b5.htm

    See also http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/wo...rk/missile.htm




    See also http://www.strategycenter.net/resear...pub_detail.asp



    Just park your cargo ship in with all the others off NOLA, set your fire control system to Remote and look at what you can range.

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    Default Brothers fall out and needles are used

    A marked contrast here between the BBC and Daily Teelgraph's reporting on the suspicious death in Malaysia of Kim Jong Un's older brother. From the DT:
    Quoting government sources, other media reports claim Mr Kim died after being jabbed by a poisoned needle by two women in the city's airport. The women are believed to be North Korean agents but have so far been able to evade a police hunt.
    The possible poisoning was not mentioned on BBC News a few minutes ago.

    BBC:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-38971655

    DT has quite an extensive background report:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...spies-poison1/
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    If you set a red line on chemical weapons and don't enforce it, that lesson isn't only taken by Assad:
    http://henryjacksonsociety.org/2017/...s-steps-back/#
    VX used by NK for example in killing an opponent...
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-24-2017 at 10:01 AM. Reason: Copied from Syria thread

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    Police have arrested four people linked to the murder, including two women who allegedly carried out the attack, and are seeking four North Koreans whom they believe fled to Pyongyang on the day Kim Jong Nam was killed. Authorities also want to question a diplomat at the North Korean embassy in Kuala Lumpur, an employee at Air Koryo, and a North Korean living in Malaysia for three years.
    The female suspects were trained to swipe the poison on the victim’s face, and knew the substance was toxic, Inspector-General of Police Khalid Abu Bakar said on Wednesday, dismissing reports that they were involved in a television prank. They had practiced at a couple of shopping malls in Kuala Lumpur, and were instructed to wash their hands after the attack, he said.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...bpolANews=true


    (Reuters) - The bizarre assassination of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's estranged half-brother marks a departure from the isolated country's repertoire of overseas operations, according to experts on its opaque ruling structures. Kim Jong Nam died last week after being assaulted at the airport in the Malaysian capital with what police believe was a fast-acting poison. The two women who authorities say assaulted him, one Indonesian and the other who carried...

    *

    South Korea has said that it believes the assassination was coordinated by a shadowy North Korean agency called the Reconnaissance General Bureau (RGB).
    The RGB is North Korea's "premier intelligence organization", according to the United Nations, which sanctioned it in March last year for its role in North Korea's arms trade.
    But given the high profile of Kim, who had spoken out publicly against his family's dynastic control, his murder could have been a joint operation between different agencies, said Michael Madden, an expert on the North Korean leadership.
    "The RGB is just one of many possibilities. It will take another week at least to pinpoint the organizations involved," said Madden.
    On Wednesday, Malaysian police arrested 47-year-old Ri Jong Chol, a North Korean who had a Malaysian work visa for a small herbal medicine firm and lived in Kuala Lumpur with his wife and two children.
    The use of North Koreans based overseas like Ri has the hallmarks of an operation by elite spy training unit "Office 35", said Jang Jin-sung, a defector who had worked in the United Front Department of the Workers' Party, which along with Office 35, is an espionage unit within the ruling party.

    http://www.metro.us/news/malaysia-mu...Cszpfc8Hmwfkg/
    Last edited by AdamG; 02-24-2017 at 01:32 PM.
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    Another country's President says "You're fired!"

    SEOUL—North Korean leader Kim Jong Un executed at least five senior officials in the country’s Ministry of State Security using antiaircraft guns, the head of South Korea’s intelligence services told lawmakers on Monday.

    Mr. Lee said that all eight North Koreans involved in the killing of Mr. Kim were working for Pyongyang’s Ministry of State Security, foreign ministry or for state-affiliated companies, recruiting the two women who carried out the killing. One of the eight, Ri Jong Chol, is in the custody of Malaysian authorities, while the others are still at large.
    During the Monday briefing, Mr. Lee said that the five senior security officials who had been executed with antiaircraft guns had been working under Kim Won Hong, North Korea’s former top security chief, who was purged last month.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-k...uns-1488191839
    Last edited by AdamG; 02-28-2017 at 04:09 PM.
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    (CNN)North Korea fired four ballistic missiles early Monday morning in what Japan's leader described as "an extremely dangerous action."
    A fifth missile failed to launch, a US official told CNN.
    Military authorities in South Korea, Japan and the United States all confirmed the launch of four projectiles, which traveled almost 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) towards the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea. One US official said they were intermediate-range missiles.

    Three landed inside Japan's exclusive economic zone, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said, which extends 200 nautical miles from its coastline, according to international maritime law.
    http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/05/asia/n...ile/index.html
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    Default Why North Korea Seems to Be Pushing Trump Toward a Potential Crisis

    Why North Korea Seems to Be Pushing Trump Toward a Potential Crisis

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    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Sirens blared and loudspeakers broadcast warnings in Japan's first civilian missile evacuation drill on Friday, conducted in a fishing town by officials wary about the threat of North Korean missiles.
    The exercise comes more than a week after North Korea launched four ballistic missiles into the sea off Japan's northwest coast, with one rocket landing about 200 km (124 miles)from the town of Oga.
    Friday's drill played out a scenario in which North Korea had fired a ballistic missile on the Japanese islands
    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-no...KBN16O0TG?il=0

    Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the U.S. is considering “all options” to counter North Korea’s nuclear threat while criticizing China over moves to block a missile-defense system on the peninsula.
    In some of his most detailed comments yet on North Korea, Tillerson ruled out a negotiated freeze of its nuclear weapons program and called for a wider alliance to counter Kim Jong Un’s regime. He also left the military option on the table if the North Korean threat gets too large.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...st-north-korea
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    Default The Basis of Negotiations with North Korea Should be Quiet Old-Fashioned Kissingerian

    The Basis of Negotiations with North Korea Should be Quiet Old-Fashioned Kissingerian Diplomacy

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    North Korea fired a test missile Wednesday morning, but the launch failed, U.S. and South Korean officials have confirmed.
    "U.S. Pacific Command detected what we assess was a failed North Korean missile launch attempt the morning of March 22 in Korea (12:49 PM Hawaii-time,) in the vicinity of Kalma," said Commander David Benham, a spokesman for U.S. Pacific Command. "A missile appears to have exploded within seconds of launch. We are working with our Interagency partners on a more detailed assessment. We continue to monitor North Korea's actions closely."
    South Korea's Ministry of Defense also confirmed the failed launch. A ministry spokesman initially said four missiles were fired, but he later corrected that figure, saying it was one missile.
    http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ry?id=46290719
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    reading music

    A senior National Security Agency official appeared to confirm that North Korean computer hackers were behind a multi-million dollar heist targeting Bangladesh’s central bank last year.
    Computer hackers attempted to steal $951 million, but only got away with $81 million, some of which was later recovered. After the theft, security firms quickly pointed the finger at North Korea. Other experts disputed that finding. But on Tuesday, NSA Deputy Director Rick Ledgett appeared to say North Korea was the culprit during a cryptic exchange at a Washington forum.
    Speaking at an Aspen Institute roundtable, Ledgett pointed out that private sector researchers had linked the digital break-in in Bangladesh to the 2014 hack on Sony Pictures, which the U.S. government attributed to Pyongyang.
    “If that linkage from the Sony actors to the Bangladeshi bank actors is accurate — that means that a nation state is robbing banks,” Ledgett said. “That’s a big deal.”
    The moderator of the event, former Assistant Attorney General for National Security John Carlin, quickly followed up: “Do you believe that there are nation states now robbing banks?”
    Ledgett offered a simple answer: “I do.”
    http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/03/21/...sh-bank-heist/
    United States federal prosecutors are reportedly building a case implicating North Korea's government of orchestrating an $81 million cyber heist from the Bangladesh central bank's account at the New York Federal Reserve.

    The Wall Street Journal, citing officials familiar with the matter, reported on Wednesday that prosecutors also believe Chinese middlemen helped Pyongyang plunder Bangladesh Bank's funds. The case implicates the country of North Korea, rather than any particular North Korean officials, and also includes charges against the Chinese middlemen or businesses allegedly involved.
    The US Treasury is reportedly also considering sanctions against the middlemen.
    http://www.dw.com/en/fbi-prepares-ch...ist/a-38081602
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    Unvetted translation.

    China Times reported on Apr. 9 that China's military deployed two army groups, about150 thousand troops, at Sino-N. Korean border to guard against an unexpected situation, while troops of S. Korea and U.S. have been conducting joint exercises since last month, including decapitation operation to remove Kim Jong-un.
    According to China Times Online in Taiwan, the Northern Military District which is in charge of defending North Eastern region of China ordered full battle preparation to all land, sea, and air units under its command, and massed 150 thousand troops out of 430 thousand troops which makes up 16th, 23rd, 39th, and 40th Army Groups.
    The news site reported that the Northern District took this measure in response to Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercises by S. Korean and U.S. troops, which continues until the end of this month, whose scenario is to eliminate N. Korean leadership including Kim Jong-un and destroy N. Korea's WMDs when a crisis breaks out in Korean Peninsula.
    The lead units for rapid response to a N. Korean crisis are 39th Army Group and 40th Army Group whose command headquarters are at Yingkou and Jinzhou in Liaoning Province. The 39th Army Group is a heavy mechanized unit and the 40th is the rapid deployment force.
    Furthermore, they deployed a new Kongjing-500 early warning aircraft to the border to beef up aerial surveillance.
    In addition, Dongfend-31A missiles, 12 Dongfeng-03 ballstic missiles with a range of 2,800km, and 24 Dongfeng-21 "Carrier-killer" missiles are aimed at N. Korea, United States Forces Korea and Japan and are ready to be fired.
    http://news.donga.com/3/02/20170409/83773504/1
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    WASHINGTON — The commander of American forces in the Pacific has ordered an aircraft carrier and several other warships toward the Korean Peninsula in a show of force by the Trump administration just days after North Korea tested another intermediate-range missile.
    The officer, Adm. Harry B. Harris Jr., the head of the military’s Pacific Command, diverted the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson and its wing of fighter jets from a planned series of exercises and port calls in Australia, the command said in a statement. The Vinson and three guided-missile destroyers and cruisers steamed out of Singapore on Saturday for their new mission in the Western Pacific.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/09/w...rth-korea.html
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    Default Did the PLA mobilise?

    Re Post 14.
    Quote Originally Posted by AdamG View Post
    I listened to a South Korean SME AM today and he made no mention of the PLA movements. Curious.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-11-2017 at 10:05 PM.
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    Default North Korean Ships Head Home After China Orders Coal Returned

    So China decides "No more coking coal from North Korea". Who gains? Well both Russia & USA are now exporting coking coal to China!

    This report starts with:
    A fleet of North Korean cargo ships is heading home to the port of Nampo, the majority of it fully laden, after the Chinese regime ordered its trading companies to return coal from the isolated country, shipping data shows. Following repeated missile tests that drew international criticism, the Chinese regime banned all imports of North Korean coal on Feb. 26, cutting off the country’s most important export product.
    Link:http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2241283-north-korean-ships-head-home-after-china-orders-coal-returned/?
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    Default Cigars and Brandy

    My personal opinion, is that Xi and Trump will arrive at an agreement over cigars and brandy, not unlike how Churchill and Stalin did with regard to German-occupied Eastern Europe.

    It would envision something along these lines:

    1. A joint Sino-American attack on North Korea, with a view to securing its WMDs and capturing or killing Kim and his inner circle. The PLA would likely invade on the ground, with the U.S. providing precision-strike from the air, and joint SOF teams inserted to seize key objects and persons.

    2. A successor to Kim is found, probably within the KPA leadership, who will no doubt be pro-China and authoritarian capitalist in style.

    3. Resistance to this change of leadership is quickly quelled by North Korean and Chinese forces. WMDs are destroyed.

    4. A long-term plan is set in motion to improve North Korea's economy and living standards, with a view to re-unify with the ROK in 10+ years.

    5. Upon reunification, Chinese and U.S. forces will exit the peninsula, and the unified Korea will be non-aligned and host no foreign forces.

    Why?

    Because Seoul is wary of repeating Bonn's experience, Beijing will not allow U.S. ground forces to approach its border with Korea, U.S. precision-strike capabilities are necessary, and South Korea is a drain on the U.S. military, as it has no reciprocal responsibility to come to the aid of the U.S. short of a North Korean attack across the DMZ.

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