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Thread: North Korea 2017 onwards

  1. #21
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default China’s leaders and citizens are losing patience with North Korea

    A UK academic comment:
    The relationship between public opinion and foreign policy is a complex one for any country to manage. That’s especially true in China; while its authoritarian political institutions might seem relatively insulated from popular sentiment compared to their counterparts in many democracies, no sensible leader in any state can completely ignore what their citizens think. All this said, many people in China still believe their country should support Pyongyang. They aren’t necessarily big fans of Kim Jong-un or his signature hairstyle; they’re more worried that should his government collapse, a violent chapter in history might repeat itself.

    With a reminder how domestic policy could restrain China:
    ..very few Chinese parents, many of whom have only one child thanks to the country’s family planning policy, would ever take the idea of military conflict lightly.
    Link:https://theconversation.com/chinas-leaders-and-citizens-are-losing-patience-with-north-korea-75262?
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    Default Imminent Nuclear Test?

    https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/852283171546816512
    US gov’t and other sources say #DPRK has apparently placed a nuclear device in a tunnel and it could be detonated Saturday AM #Korea time.
    https://twitter.com/TheBaseLeg/statu...37451480616960
    USAF WC-135 Constant Phoenix "nuclear sniffer" aircraft deployed to Okinawa ahead of poss. N Korean nuke test

  3. #23
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    Azor...BTW...I am far more concerned about going to war in Korean than Syria.

    BREAKING: US prepared to launch conventional military strike on North Korea if country moves towards nuclear test, according to US officials

    As someone who has exercised the Korean war scenario a number of times...you do not want to hear how it starts...how it develops and then how it might in fact end...

    Anyone who tells you that we are the "winners" needs to have their head seriously examined....a number of times actually...

    It will be hard..brutal and high loss numbers and in the end potential go nuclear...

    If NK lined up their artillery on the border and just fired artillery all day long ...Seoul would no loner be on the map...just as starters and then we can move onto NK SOF moves south.....AND that is not nuclear....
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-14-2017 at 08:25 AM. Reason: Moved from Syria thread to the right place

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Azor...BTW...I am far more concerned about going to war in Korean than Syria.

    BREAKING: US prepared to launch conventional military strike on North Korea if country moves towards nuclear test, according to US officials

    As someone who has exercised the Korean war scenario a number of times...you do not want to hear how it starts...how it develops and then how it might in fact end...

    Anyone who tells you that we are the "winners" needs to have their head seriously examined....a number of times actually...

    It will be hard..brutal and high loss numbers and in the end potential go nuclear...

    If NK lined up their artillery on the border and just fired artillery all day long ...Seoul would no loner be on the map...just as starters and then we can move onto NK SOF moves south.....AND that is not nuclear....

    Enjoy the Goldman Sachs neocon WH that is exactly what Trump voters have gotten and actually I tend to agree with these accusations by the alt right that massively supported Trump and who have turned against him...they at least "see his shift".....
    DOES DoD want to deliberately heat up Korea to a level they themselves can no longer control?

    The Pentagon on Thursday declined to comment on an NBC report about possible pre-emptive action against North Korea, saying, as a policy, it does not discuss future operations "nor publicly speculate on possible scenarios."
    "Commanders are always considering a full range of options to protect against any contingencies," Dana White, a Pentagon spokeswoman, said in a statement. Reuters had queried the Pentagon about the report.
    "Our commitment to the defense of our allies, including the Republic of Korea and Japan, in the face of potential threats, remains steadfast."
    If your intention is to draw attention to NK but one level just under full war...they deny the report...NOT side step it thus reinforcing the image that the US is fully prepared to go to war....
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-14-2017 at 08:25 AM. Reason: Moved from Syria thread to the right place

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    DOES DoD want to deliberately heat up Korea to a level they themselves can no longer control?



    If your intention is to draw attention to NK but one level just under full war...they deny the report...NOT side step it thus reinforcing the image that the US is fully prepared to go to war....
    We are rapidly reaching that point in time...China has never released since the Korean War such a statement....and then under "Breaking"...evidently they feel the nuclear test will be used by the US as a reason to physically strike NK nuclear/missile facilities...

    AFP news agency

    @AFP
    #BREAKING 'Conflict could break out at any moment' over North Korea: China

    BREAKING: North Korea's vice foreign minister tells the AP it will conduct next nuclear test whenever supreme headquarters sees fit.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-14-2017 at 08:25 AM. Reason: Moved from Syria thread to the right place

  6. #26
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Play up those Hollywood platitudes.

    A conflict over North Korea could break out "at any moment", China said Friday, warning there would be no winner in any war as tensions soar with the United States.
    The sharp language came after US President Donald Trump said the North Korea problem "will be taken care of", as speculation mounts the reclusive state could be preparing another nuclear or missile test.
    Trump has sent an aircraft carrier-led strike group to the Korean peninsula to press his point, one of a series of measures that indicate his willingness to shake up foreign policy strategy.
    "Lately, tensions have risen... and one has the feeling that a conflict could break out at any moment," Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said.
    "If a war occurs, the result is a situation in which everybody loses and there can be no winner."
    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...cid=spartandhp

    Cater to the American journalists' worst fears.

    PYONGYANG, North Korea — President Donald Trump's tweets are adding fuel to a "vicious cycle" of tensions on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea's vice foreign minister told The Associated Press in an exclusive interview Friday.

    The official added that if the U.S. shows any sign of "reckless" military aggression, Pyongyang is ready to launch a pre-emptive strike of its own. Vice Minister Han Song Ryol said Pyongyang has determined the Trump administration is "more vicious and more aggressive" than that of his predecessor, Barack Obama. He added that North Korea will keep building up its nuclear arsenal in "quality and quantity" and said Pyongyang is ready to go to war if that's what Trump wants.
    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...cid=spartandhp

    Oh noes! Another dud on the Launchpad?

    The U.S. is prepared to launch a preemptive strike with conventional weapons against North Korea should officials become convinced that North Korea is about to follow through with a nuclear weapons test, multiple senior U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News.
    North Korea has warned that a "big event" is near, and U.S. officials say signs point to a nuclear test that could come as early as this weekend.
    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/...cid=spartandhp

    and the latest from the Pyongyang Large Scale Modelbuilding Club
    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/13/as...les/index.html
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  7. #27
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    Right now am not so sure Syria and Ukraine are the hot spots......

    North korea: #Japan making plans to evacuate 60,000 citizens from #South Korea and to deal with a refugee crisis.

    Russia reportedly moved military vehicles (Air Def) toward Vladivostok not far from the border w/ North Korea
    https://already-happened.com/2017/04...a-this-night/#
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-14-2017 at 04:12 PM. Reason: Copied from Syria thread and edited

  8. #28
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    I don't see the incentive in DPRK responding to US threats by demobilizing or dismantling its nuclear program. Their rhetoric has made perfectly clear that the examples of Iraq and Libya surrendering their WMD only to be swiftly destroyed by the US are at the forefront of their justification. And the latest strike in Syria is not a good template for the US to use in response to any DPRK nuclear test - it will only show US impotence and possibly start a general war.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  9. #29
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    M
    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    "Wag the Dog" has now gotten out of control......

    You know things have gotten upside down when China is urging calm and sounds like the most reasonable voice in the room.

    Two uses of air strikes against countries that cannot defend themselves and now one who can fight back, has nuclear weapons and can flatten Seoul within hours and Trump is off golfing today?

    From today's NK military parade....WHILE Trump is off golfing....

    Generally speaking, this is not what you want to see North Korea military experts tweet while watching North Korea military parades.

    Melissa Hanham‏#
    @mhanham
    OOOOOOH FUUUUUUUC..........
    Azor......

    Goes to the above comment....

    "We’re totally floored right now...I was not expecting to see this many new missile designs.”
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-k...etter_axiosam#


    So was the MOAB a "Wag the Dog moment"????? It definitely did not impress the NKs.....
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-15-2017 at 08:05 PM. Reason: Moved from Syria hread to the right place

  10. #30
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Time to drag out those twin 23mm AA guns and dispatch another Project Manager.

    North Korea attempted a new missile launch from an eastern coastal city early Sunday, but the operation ended in failure shortly after launch, U.S. and South Korean officials said.
    It was not clear whether it was a long-range ballistic missile, but the attempted launch in South Hamkyung Province, around Sinpo, was a clear sign of the secretive country’s continuing attempts to develop an aggressive weapons program.
    U.S. Pacific Command said it detected a missile at about 6:20 a.m. Korean time. The device apparently “blew up almost instantly,” Cmdr. Dave Benham, a command spokesman, said in a statement.The type of missile is still unknown, he said.
    http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la...017-story.html
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


    http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg

  11. #31
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    Another "Wag the Dog moment" coming care of the Trump WH...........

    BREAKING: UK officials say Trump Administration believes it can 'utterly destroy' the installations key to North Korea's nuclear threat

    China doesn't like North Korea's wild behavior either. But it also fears collapse & reunification:
    http://social.stratfor.com/w4zY30aT3le

    So what will China do if in fact Trump air/missile strikes NK????

    Side with NK naturally....
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-16-2017 at 10:09 AM. Reason: Moved from Syria thread to the right place

  12. #32
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default OOOOOOH FUUUUUUUC.....: clarity

    WaPo has an article assessing the missiles plus shown yesterday and notes the tubes content is unknown. It relies on Jeffrey Lewis aka @ArmsControlWonk and cites his colleague, Melissa Hanham who authored the "Oooh" tweet.

    She noted:
    Solid fuel is very significant because they can launch these missiles much faster and with a smaller entourage than with #liquid-fueled missiles, making them much harder for the United States, South Korea and Japan to spot from satellites.
    Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ff-one-by-one/
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-16-2017 at 09:18 PM. Reason: 6423v
    davidbfpo

  13. #33
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    Default RE: Kim's new toys

    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    WaPo has an article assessing the missiles plus shown yesterday and notes the tubes content is unknown. It relies on Jeffrey Lewis aka @ArmsControlWonk and cites his colleague, Melissa Hanham who authored the "Oooh" tweet.

    She noted:Link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ff-one-by-one/
    David,

    I think there is a measure of sensationalism at work here.

    There are no indications that these new designs are anything other than cosmetic revisions or that they even work. As for the DPRK's dalliance with solid-fuel, note that even Russia still retains dozens of liquid-fuel ICBMs (UR-100N).

    I would imagine that Russian, Chinese, U.S., Japanese and Korean intelligence are all aware of North Korea's capabilities, irrespective of what they put on parade.

    These analysts are helpful, but they are not privy to secret intelligence and rely on OSINT as much as the rest of us.

  14. #34
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    BTW...the "Wag the Dog" theory is gaining ground now ....a well known former US ambassador to SK stated yesterday...."Trump is trying to out do NK" in his attempt to make his image look like that of a hardnosed US leader.....

    He went on to state..."you cannot outdo NK with NK like actions"....it will always end in failure as NK is the only country truly prepared for war from the very first minute you engage them....there is no other country on this earth like that...

    Trump has responded with heated rhetoric and military maneuvering that has many wondering how far he'll go to counter an aggressive Pyongyang.
    But Hill warned the president is not in a position to "bluff."
    "Great powers can't really bluff," Hill added. "So when you talk in those terms, you've got to be prepared to back it up. And I guess that's what worries people the most."
    "Certainly it makes people nervous when they're not quite sure what he means by it," Hill said.
    BTW...check the Russian TV rant I posted here from yesterday...I have never seen such a Russia media blast in the last 30 odd years...Russia is angry.....really angry at Trump....and that rant yesterday was personal and aimed directly at Trump and his family. BTW...Russian media speaks what is allowed by the government not vice versa....so we got yesterday Putin talking to Trump directly via TV....

    SO do the Russians actually have compromising information on him and felt he would swing their way....this reaction from yesterday says YES they do have materials....and just might be n the edge of releasing them and burning Trump...

    What many do not know is that Russians both personal friends and the government have memories like elephants....they never forget something even if years ago....
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-17-2017 at 07:52 AM. Reason: Copied from the Syria thread as the start sits here too

  15. #35
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    You do not play a game of "chicken" with a country capable of striking back at you and your allies.....especially if they have 11 completed nuclear devices and one could be targeted against Japan as his shorter range missiles function well and have the range ...NK can hit Japan was well with CWs and they can flatten Seoul in a few hours just with normal artillery....

    Trump Is Willing to Consider a Sudden Strike on North Koreahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...h-korea-moves#

    Trump got away with his TLSM strike because Russia did not actively counter the inbound TLAMs nor was Assad able to strike back.....

    As an indicator of something coming down the proverbial highway......

    The departures board at Pyongyang airport just went dark. Been waiting here 8 hours. No word about what's going on

    REMEMBER Chia also cancelled all flight to and from NK today several days ago....so what is it they did not tell Trump in FL?????


    North Korea is the only country China has promised by treaty to defend (and it is probably regretting that promise a little).
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-17-2017 at 12:33 PM. Reason: Copied from the Syria thread as the start sits here too

  16. #36
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    Trump's "Wag the Dog thingy" is getting a tad out of control...HOW long can he park a US carrier strike force????

    North Korea 'will test missiles weekly', senior official tells

    BBC http://bbc.in/2pqCMIj
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-17-2017 at 06:36 PM. Reason: Moved from Syria thread to the right place

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Trump's "Wag the Dog thingy" is getting a tad out of control...HOW long can he park a US carrier strike force????

    North Korea 'will test missiles weekly', senior official tells


    http://bbc.in/2pqCMIj
    N. Korean deputy foreign minister says army on "maximum alert", nuclear weapon not an illiusion

    http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/0...131518873.html

    Are they getting ready to test their nuclear device...appears so....calling basically the Trump bluff....THEN what will Trump do then?????
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-17-2017 at 06:36 PM. Reason: Moved from Syria thread to the right place

  18. #38
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    The current approach to DPRK is just fine, despite sensational hype from the far left about the tail wagging the dog.

    There are only a couple of facts that we need to keep in mind.

    1. KJU is unpredictable, and he is rapidly enroute to developing the capability to strike our homeland with nuclear missile. Recent failures result in lessons and adaption, so they shouldn't be seen as he'll never get there. One only needs to look at the evolution of their missile capabilities since the mid 90s to today.

    2. Cuddling KJU, or any form DPRK leader, has never worked. If they're not challenged they will continue to act out in increasingly destabilizing ways. DPRK is a sore spot in the global security that cannot be ignored, or addressed with strategic patience. That has already failed.

    3. If the current approach of escalating to de-escalate doesn't work, then we need to be prepared to execute military operations. Failure not to will lead to greater risk later. What happens afterwards will be messy, but ultimately manageable.

    This is no time for Chamberlains, instead we must face facts and deal with the world as it really is. The world is a tough place, we need to be tough to protect our interests.

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    Default Analyzing North Korea's Missile Parade: Prescription For Fear, Dose Of Reality

    From Tyler Rogoway at TheWarzone: http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...ose-of-reality

    An unprecedented number eyes were focused on Pyongyang yesterday for this year's Day of The Sun military parade. Largely this was because the rhetoric between the US and North Korea has never been so hot, and there has been real posturing to go along with it. Intelligence agencies and journalists alike watch the display closely to see what new military capabilities the Kim regime will put on display, and as a result you probably woke up to headlines like "North Korea shows off sinister new ICBM" and the like.

    It seems like many are quick to forget that this event happens on parade grounds, not a military technology testing and proving ground. Parades usually have floats, and big ominous looking missile canisters, and even missiles themselves, can be just that—elaborate displays—and nothing more.

    We know what missile capabilities the North Koreans have actually tested, and what remains on their wish list. The War Zone was among the first to warn of Kim's changing missile development strategy, and we have followed every major launch very closely since.

    There is no question North Korea has gained incredible momentum towards a true intercontinental ballistic missile and submarine-launched ballistic missile capability over the last year, but that doesn't mean rolling a big transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) with a massive missile canister on top proves that there is anything inside.

    It is best to think of this event as a place at which Pyongyang can make their end-game aspirations a brief but synthetic reality—a blank canvas for which to paint their most deadly hopes and dreams.

    So no, just because it rolls through Kim Il Sung Square does not make it real—at least not real yet. But that also doesn't mean that it is all fake—far from it. Once again, many of these systems are actually in testing, and outgrowths of their original designs are both logical and expected...

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Moore View Post
    The current approach to DPRK is just fine, despite sensational hype from the far left about the tail wagging the dog.

    There are only a couple of facts that we need to keep in mind.

    1. KJU is unpredictable, and he is rapidly enroute to developing the capability to strike our homeland with nuclear missile. Recent failures result in lessons and adaption, so they shouldn't be seen as he'll never get there. One only needs to look at the evolution of their missile capabilities since the mid 90s to today.

    2. Cuddling KJU, or any form DPRK leader, has never worked. If they're not challenged they will continue to act out in increasingly destabilizing ways. DPRK is a sore spot in the global security that cannot be ignored, or addressed with strategic patience. That has already failed.

    3. If the current approach of escalating to de-escalate doesn't work, then we need to be prepared to execute military operations. Failure not to will lead to greater risk later. What happens afterwards will be messy, but ultimately manageable.

    This is no time for Chamberlains, instead we must face facts and deal with the world as it really is. The world is a tough place, we need to be tough to protect our interests.
    Agreed, Bill.

    The "wag the dog" slogan is merely part of the 2016 Campaign that never ended in November. If the current president softens on Kim, then he is a Russian agent dismantling American power; if he hardens on Kim, then he is both a warmonger and a Russian agent feigning Hawkishness to distract from his secret plot to dismantle American power. I just did some mental contortions there...

    You are correct that amusing blunders aside, North Korea is on track to be able to launch a nuclear warhead at CONUS in 5-10 years.

    What is probably of greater concern, is North Korea's attempts to develop an A2/AD zone comprised of shorter-range ballistic and cruise missiles. This would allow Kim or his successors to stage provocations such as the Cheonan sinking, knowing that the US-led coalition would face heavy costs retaliating.

    After a generation of kicking the can down the road, there is now only a narrow window with which to disarm North Korea and prevent it from extorting or terrorizing its neighbors with impunity.

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