.....The refugee crisis has presented a test that virtually all involved are failing. The three neighbouring host countries have performed best. There is much in their attitude toward Iraqis that is open to question and, as time elapsed, they unfortunately have hardened their policies. Still, Syria and Jordan in particular opened their borders and provided sanctuary at significant cost to their already fragile socio-economic fabric. Nothing of the sort can be said of the Iraqi government or of those in the international community primarily responsible for the refugees’ plight. The Iraqi government, neighbouring host countries, the U.S. and EU have a joint obligation to do more for the refugees’ welfare.
Today, as some relatively hopeful signs emanate from Iraq, there is a temptation to downplay the problem and bank on large-scale returns. Yet, although the refugee flow has begun to taper off as a result of decreasing levels of violence, relatively few of the displaced have felt confident enough to return; those who have tend to be IDPs rather than refugees (who fear they will not be allowed to re-enter their safe havens should violence once again pick up), and those refugees who have returned have often resettled in other than their original places of residence, because they found their own homes damaged, located in hostile areas or occupied by IDPs.
There also is a real risk that such progress as there has been will prove fleeting. The surge in troop presence has contributed to the relative calm, but those numbers are expected to decrease; more importantly, the shift in Iraq is largely due to other factors, principally a decision by key military actors either to lie low as long as U.S. forces remain in the country – the Sadrists and their Mahdi Army militias – or, in the case of Sunni tribes, to tactically ally themselves with the U.S. to fight a common enemy, al-Qaeda in Iraq. Underlying political conflicts have yet to be resolved and could reignite a bloody civil war. In other words, the world must be prepared for a possible second refugee wave.
Whether neighbouring states would be able to absorb that wave is doubtful. At that point, Western nations would face their second, arguably more critical test: to help neighbouring countries care for these refugees and accept greater numbers of them for resettlement or to see states, including important allies such as Jordan or critical regional actors such as Syria, buckle under the strain of a burden that far exceeds their limited resources.
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