Iraq: A Displacement Crisis

[Stan]

Nice Post, Tequila !

Joyous photos of Iraqi refugees returning to Baghdad

...in recent weeks have become something of a rallying cry for U.S. and Iraqi officials. Security is on such an upswing, leaders say, families are doing the once unthinkable: they’re coming home.

Definitely good news and a reason to be optimistic; while I would also argue that not all of the folks are returning because they feel the security situation has drastically improved, I would point out that the statistics reflect that people are no longer fleeing Iraq. Often relief agency’s numbers are easily skewed by not calculating that others continue to/or are no longer departing. CNN recently reported that 46,000 have retuned in October, and 10,000 of those to Baghdad. The same reports covered market activity and nightlife returning to the capital.

This U.N. September 2007 report however indicates that an estimated 60,000 Iraqis were still being forced from their homes each month due to violence.

[Creon01]

The UNHCR (not UN) report quoted previously is not accurate regarding the rate of newly displaced Iraqis. The UNHCR does not have any active nationwide systematic monitoring of IDPs ongoing within Iraq. The now defunct UN Cluster F report that is often mislabeled as a UNHCR report relies on data collected by the MoDM, KRG and IOM and has been for some time considered the definitive source of information on Iraqi displacement. The last Cluster F report seems to indicate an ever growing number of IDPs, a theme that is also repeated in their latest funding appeal.

The rate of newly displaced Iraqis is now actually so low in Baghdad that the Iraqi Ministry of Displacement and Migration (MoDM) has stopped registering new applications for IDP status in order to catch up with many applications still in the pipeline. The way an Iraqi is registered as an IDP (and becomes eligible for a monthly support grant) is that local, district and then provincial councils have to validate the applicant before MoDM registers the person or family. All the other components of the system are ongoing as the MoDM catches up.

The simple reason for the apparent rise in the total number of Iraqi displaced is that collection efficiencies, the monetary incentives now being offered to register, fewer mixed urban neighborhoods and vastly increased security have generated a frenzy among poor Iraqis to get registered. The MoDM recently issued a clarification that their numbers only reflect the date a person becomes registered as an IDP with the Iraqi government, not the date or rate of displacement.

As for the Iraqi Red Crescent, it has never revealed its methodology regarding how or who they count as IDPs so are not considered as credible by serious humanitarian organizations working in Iraq.

The only organization that actively monitors when an Iraqi becomes displaced, their sectarian affiliation, where they came from and why they fled in the first place is the International Organization for Migration (IOM). Every two weeks they update the data on their web site. IOM does not count every displaced Iraqi nor is that their goal. This organization seeks out the most vulnerable Iraqi IDPs and conducts a monitoring and needs assessment when they find them so they can design and implement a life sustaining intervention, if needed, until the host community or the Government of Iraq can provide the sustainable support. These most vulnerable displaced Iraqis are the ones everyone should be most concerned with not the middle class Iraqis who fled abroad.

The key to understanding the relevance of displacement trends in the current counter-insurgency strategy is that most people will not come back to a place that is not perceived to be secure regardless of any economic or government incentives, and absent extreme coercive methods displacement and returns should be considered as a key indicator of success or failure in any security operation.

[tequila]

FAFO did a study with the Jordanian government in April 2007 on the number and characteristics of the Iraqi refugee population in Jordan. Haven't had a chance to really look at the report or the sampling data, but it's here and here.

[TROUFION]

http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=3888

We can all note that the IDP and Refugee issue in Iraq is huge, it is at present a destabilizing factor in the region, yet if handled properly it could be a significant advantage.

But I have already stated my crazy ideas on another thread, what I'd like to hear is what else could be done. First and foremost we (US) need to stop saying that refugees and IDP are a UN issue. We cannot and should not pass the buck. If a concerted effort was made by the US and I mean -DOD-DOS in conjunction with the Iraqi military and Gov't this problem could be reduced if not solved.

One of the big problems is that the returnees tend to run into squatters, and that is just bad. The other issue is that the returnees tend to be brought to cities Bagdahd in particular. These places are over crowded, and already violent, why put more unemployed into an already weak zone.

Relocation of the displaced has worked in the past and if modified to fit 'modern sensibilities' it can become palatable and managable.

Bottom line, we only need to look at the Palestinian camps to see the dangers of prolonged displacement in foriegn countries. The first goal should be to bring the people back into Iraq, and into safe areas that have ready made job opportunites and a higher standard of living. The cost is negliible in comparison to leaving at it is now.

-T

[Jedburgh]

HRW, dated Nov 07, but published on-line 4 Dec 07:

Rot Here or Die There: Bleak Choices for Iraqi Refugees in Lebanon

Compared to Syria and Jordan, Lebanon hosts a relatively small number of Iraqi refugees, estimated at around 50,000. But Lebanon, with a population of only four million people, already shoulders a significant burden by hosting 250,000 to 300,000 Palestinian refugees. Political instability and crisis also make many Lebanese wary of hosting another refugee population whose prospects of returning to their home country in the short term are remote. The situation is further complicated because many Lebanese perceive that the sectarian tensions that plague Iraqi society might feed into, and amplify, the sectarian tensions that are ever present in Lebanon itself.

Iraqi refugees in Lebanon currently enjoy only very limited protection. Since January 2007, UNHCR grants refugee status on a prima facie basis to all Iraqi nationals from central and southern Iraq who have sought asylum in Jordan, Syria, Egypt, Turkey, and Lebanon. However, Lebanon, like some of its neighbors, does not give legal effect to UNHCR’s recognition of Iraqi refugees. Lebanon is not a party to the 1951 United Nations Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees (Refugee Convention) or to the 1967 Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees. It has no domestic refugee law. Instead, people who enter Lebanon illegally for the purpose of seeking refuge from persecution, or who enter legally but then overstay their visas for the same purpose, are treated as illegal immigrants and are subject to arrest, imprisonment, fines, and deportation.

The Lebanese authorities have in many ways shown a remarkable tolerance for the Iraqi presence in Lebanon. The police and the Internal Security Forces (ISF) do not systematically arrest Iraqi refugees who do not have valid visas or residence permits, but sufficiently large numbers of Iraqis are arrested and detained to ensure that the risk of arrest is constantly on their minds. The number of Iraqi refugees arrested increases in direct proportion to the number of checkpoints in Lebanon. While in March 2007 there were fewer than 100 Iraqi refugees in detention in Lebanon, by August 2007 this number had increased dramatically to 480 as a direct result of the proliferation of checkpoints due to the worsening security situation. As this paper goes to press, in November 2007, about 580 Iraqi refugees are in detention in Lebanon. This means that most Iraqis do not leave their homes unless absolutely necessary, and often do not approach UNHCR or the authorities for fear of exposing themselves to arrest. Their lack of legal status in Lebanon also means that they are vulnerable to abuse and exploitation by employers and others who know that the Iraqis have no recourse to the Lebanese authorities.....

Complete 70 page report at the link.

[Jedburgh]

Refugees International, Apr 08: Uprooted and Unstable: Meeting Urgent Humanitarian Needs in Iraq

....As a result of the vacuum created by the failure of both the Iraqi Government and the international community to act in a timely and adequate manner, non-state actors play a major role in providing assistance to vulnerable Iraqis. Militias of all denominations are improving their local base of support by providing social services in the neighborhoods and towns they control. Through a “Hezbollah-like” scheme, the Shiite Sadrist movement has established itself as the main service provider in the country. Similarly, other Shiite and Sunni groups are gaining ground and support through the delivery of food, oil, electricity, clothes and money to the civilians living in their fiefdoms. Not only do these militias now have a quasi-monopoly in the large-scale provision of assistance in Iraq, they are also recruiting an increasing number of civilians to their militias - including displaced Iraqis.....

Complete 28 page paper at the link.

[Creon01]

From their web page:

IOM is conducting on-going, in-depth assessments of recently displaced persons throughout Iraq. Monitors use Rapid Assessment questionnaires to gather information from IDP families, the Ministry of Displacement and Migration (MoDM), IDP tribal and community leaders, local NGOs, and local government bodies. Based on a database of this information, IOM disseminates bi-weekly, bi-annual, and annual reports containing updates, statistics, and analysis on displacement.This information assists IOM and other organizations in prioritizing areas of operation, planning emergency responses and designing long-term programs.

June 2008 updates and much more solid information can be found here http://www.iom-iraq.net/library.html#IDP

Creon