Syria in 2017 (April-December)

[davidbfpo]

Time for a new thread starting tomorrow.

The Syria in 2017 (January to March) had 2,105 posts and 86.8k views:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=24850

The previous thread from September-December 2016 had 2683 posts and 64.2k views.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Syrian Express....


Watch this RORO: From Novorossiysk, flag RORO Sparta III transits Bosphorus en route to #Tartus #Syria carrying military equipment 01:30Z

[CrowBat]

For a complete list of links to my coverage of Assadist and Russian aerial operations over Syria in period 15 March - 30 April 2017, please see here.

In essence, and with exception of air strikes flown on 30 and 31 March, and 1 April 2017, all the figures are there. The link above also provides a number of links to related articles published at WarIsboring.com.

A much bigger - indeed, a 'major' feature on the SyAAF, its current condition, ORBAT, capabilities and intentions - is planned for publishing in the June 2017 volume of the magazine Air Forces Monthly.

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Syrian Express......

Ф #ЧФ BSF Tapir class LST Nikolai Filchenkov 152 transits Med-bound Bosphorus en route to #Tartus #Syria for its 5th deployment in 2017

BUT she is riding a tad high for a resupply run....

[OUTLAW 09]

Damascus: #Assad forces shelling #Irbeen in Eastern #Damascus with heavy artillery. Many civilians were killed or wounded.

Damascus: 100 rebels wasted for nothing in Eastern #Ghouta in 3 days, while the #Assad regime bombs nonstop & tries to advance.

[OUTLAW 09]

NEW - In a new report, @hrw says #Assad regime has conducted x4 nerve agent attacks in #Syria since December 2016:
https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/fi...0517_web_1.pdf …

AND the next Trump TLAM Response for crossing his "redline" will occur when???????

Videos of suspected chlorine IRAMs in Eastern Ghouta are here (1/31):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HXZjvHxdJE …
and here (2/21):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNF8aHxsOHo …

[OUTLAW 09]

Azor....heads up.....

This morning, #Russia’s military openly positioned itself with #YPG/#PKK forces in #Afrin, to deter any future #Turkey military action:

Senior INGO official told me last week how #Russia & #Assad are giving #YPG access to S #Aleppo, to unite #Afrin-Kobane-Jazira cantons.

So in one way, you’ve got to be impressed with #YPG’s political maneuvering; using #Russia *and* U.S. to protect its territorial gains.

On the other hand, you’ve got to also see the irony - an organization that detests “imperialism” is now dependent on #Russia & the U.S.

[Azor]

Ankara was - for years - negotiating with the PKK

And vice versa. It takes two to tango, no?

…while at the same time calling for the USA and others of its Western allies to help it solve the situation in Syria. For years. In 2011, in 2012, in 2013, in 2014 etc.

And? If the narcotics-related conflict in Mexico destroyed the Mexican state and the violence sent millions fleeing into the United States, would Turkey lend a helping hand?

The United States is also being called upon to resolve the Russo-Ukrainian War, the ongoing wars in the D.R. Congo and Burundi, the transnational wars involving Boko Haram, the civil war in Myanmar, the unresolved Korean conflict, etc.

The West refused, and - and against any logic - continued to ignore the situation in Syria even when millions of Syrians poured over the border into Turkey, an then continued pushing further west and north, putting the Turkish economy under immense strain.

They poured into Lebanon and Jordan as well. Turkey has been the single largest provider of aid (at 47% of total), but Turkey’s allies have pitched in, with the United States being the second-largest donor at 27%.

And when this was not enough, the West ignored the Russians exporting at least 25.000 of their Wahhabists to Syria, where these joined the Daesh and Nusra - both of which came into being foremost thanks to the Assad regime.

You inflated the number of Russian citizens fighting for rebel groups in Syria by an order of magnitude, and did they all cross through Iran and Iraq, or take the direct route through Turkey? Yes, Assad sparked the war and yes, neither Daesh nor Nusra would have been possible without the lawless vacuum that the war created. However, Ankara allowed its southern border to be a sieve for foreign volunteers to join the FSA, Daesh and Nusra, because these were clashing with the YPG.

And when that was not enough, the West - but the USA in particular - started acting as if Assad regime is entirely irrelevant, as if there is no popular uprising nor 'civil war' in Syria, as if there is no Iranian military intervention in Syria, and as if Turkey should neither have its own national interests inside Turkey, nor for its neighbourhood.

No, the West simply had no appetite for regime change and a major ground war. Prior to the 2013 arrangement with Russia, Assad’s deterrent complicated the situation as it was suggested that some 75,000 ground troops would be required to secure his chemical weapons.

As for Iran’s intervention, Washington couldn’t make war on Iran in Syria on the one hand, and arrive at a deal on Iran’s nuclear weapons program on the other. Obama clearly traded involvement in Ukraine and Syria for the JCPOA.

And when that was not enough, the US military - violating US laws - entered cooperation with the PKK, while using bases inside Turkey.

No, the cooperation began with the PYD. Despite the PKK-PYD ties, the YPG is not fighting in Turkey, and I have seen no evidence of a major flow of Turkish Kurdish volunteers to the YPG or conversely, flows of Syrian Kurdish volunteers to the PKK.

And when that was not enough, the Turks were told to shut up and tolerate the PKK, to shut up and tolerate 4 millions of Syrian refugees inside Turkey - and then also accused of cooperation with Nusra and Daesh, and this despite perfect clarity that Erdogan and his AKP are on the list of enemies of these two (visible also through the fact that the elements of Turkish society that do cooperate with the HTS, for example, stand in opposition to the AKP).

When were the Turks told to tolerate the PKK? I saw Turkish armor roll into southeastern cities weapons free and kill at least as many Kurdish civilians as PKK fighters, with little to no pressure from the West. If the Sultan and his Muslim Brotherhood are so high on the list of Daesh’s and Nusra’s target lists, then why did the Sultan place them below the YPG on his own list? Ankara was accused of collaboration with Daesh by Russia, a claim that was cried shrilly after the Su-24 was barbequed.

Of course, the West could have responded by highlighting Assad’s reliance upon commodities from Daesh-controlled parts of Syria, as the “Syrian Express” cannot keep the lights on in Damascus on its own, but then the Western publics would bay for intervention and how could the West then avoid regime change and conflict with Iran?

Supporting the YPG is dangerous for Moscow and Teheran as well, as Moscow wants to prize Turkey from NATO and has its own ethnic problems, and Iran has a chunk of “Kurdistan” as well. Few seem to be thinking this thing through.

No, it is not. The blame for genocide of Armenians is on Turkey and Turks, no doubt about this. And, sooner or later, they'll accept their responsibility.

Yeah right. I cannot claim to know many Turks, but I have yet to meet one that believes that there was a genocide.

It's just a piss-poor excuse, misused for demonizing Turkey and completely ignoring Turkish interests. An act that's ruining relations between the West and that country for decades in advance. Now tell me, please: in whose interest is that?

Should I care? As far as I am concerned, both Russia and Turkey should be walled off.

sigh... Do I really have to waste even more time with discussing that topic further in-depth, too...? Get yourself at least 'Arabs and Israelis for Dummies', and read: everything is nicely based on documentation.

Well, when you can prove a Jewish genocide of Arabs, perhaps I’ll entertain this more. I went through my pro-Palestinian phase years ago.

'Aborigines' - in the USA...? Well, thanks for a reminder, but I didn't even try to add them to the equation.

I used aboriginal in lieu of “Indian” or “American Indian”, which are inaccurate terms. Would you prefer “native” or “indigenous”? “Aborigine” is something else entirely. Again, no genocide happened. Everyone wants to have their own Holocaust it seems whilst denying the real one that took place.

And you were wrong with thinking that way. My soft spot is humanity and freedom, and opposition to any kind of oppression. It just so happens that some of Sunni Arabs are between plenty of other people who are oppressed. But then, that's something you don't think about, and thus can't understand me.

Alright. So if the United States has one bullet for humanitarian intervention, where does it use it? D.R. Congo and Burundi or Iraq and Syria?

Wrong. Their governments have such problems, because both of them need chauvinists to keep themselves in power.

In my experience, the Turks are more indoctrinated by their government than the Russians, and this includes the Turks that are secular nationalists as well. If there is one thing that Turks agree on, it is that there were no genocides and that there is an anti-Turkish conspiracy.

...What's wrong with that?

Because the West wants to specifically defeat Daesh and otherwise stay out of the war. I see leaving Assad in place and defeating Sunni Arab supremacism as mutually exclusive objectives. But I’m not on the NSC.

Are you really that poor at 'connecting dots' as to fail to understand that the Daesh could've been easily prevented by supporting the FSyA and removing Assad on time?

The problem is far too complex to make that assumption. Again, a nuclear-armed Iran was considered a worse threat than Daesh and still is.

...which wold change absolutely nothing. But then, it's meanwhile typical for you - yes, this time: 'for you' - to be unable to think beyond, 'replacing one dictator of the minority through another dictator from the same minority'.

I said “rump state”. An Alawi can never rule over the Sunni Arab majority in Syria again. However, neither will the Alawis accept possible tyranny of the majority. Another Alawi leader could enact a realarmistice so that the FSA can concentrate on Daesh and consolidate its control over Sunni Arab Syria. Of course, Russia may be content with that but Iran won’t be.

A weak and federalized state along the lines of Lebanon seems to be the answer for both Iraq and Syria, but are the Alawis and Shias disabused of the notion that they can win it all?

To paraphrase Gen. Sherman, the Iranians need to be made absolutely sick of war.

[Azor]

What 'regular forces', PLEASE? Azor, would you like to tell me, you've really got not even that much clue about the Syrian civil war as to know a) it's not the Iranian military, but the IRGC - indeed: IRGC-QF - that's responsible for such Iranian operations like the one in Syria, b) this IRGC-QF deployed its first two 'regular' (IRGC) brigades to Syria already in 2012, and c) that Iran is running a full-blown military intervention in Syria at least since early 2013? If so, sorry, but we need not discussing this topic until you inform yourself properly.

I never said that Iran’s regular forces were involved. I am aware that this is a Pasdaran project. However, Iran could "surge" regular forces into Syria rather than just special forces and various Shia mercenaries. Their strategic lift capabilities leave much to be desired, but they could probably cobble together some sort of ad hoc naval lift if the way through Iraq is closed off, which is a big “if”. How can Iran have a “full-blown military intervention in Syria” without the regular Iranian military? That’s an Israeli riddle for you.

Suffice it to say, when someone constantly falls back on, “attend WestPoint” or “inform yourself”, the other party can be sure that they hit a nerve. Knowing the technical details of the SyAAF does not equate to knowing the weighing of options in the NSC or among the U.S. and its allies.

In conclusion, you seem to have trouble distinguishing between my discussion of the current state of affairs and my discussion of my own personal preferences. As both you and Outlaw are no doubt aware, risk-aversion often leads to negative effects, as was evident in American interventions in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and now Syria. American foreign policy is typically successful when there is total and unlimited commitment, and often that commitment is far less “total” in the end than the grudging commitments made to supposedly “limited” initiatives.

It seems that the West wants Raqqa to fall and Daesh to be driven from the field as quickly as possible so that Operation Inherent Resolve can be wrapped up, and the Coalition can return home, repair the wear and tear on their aircraft and other equipment, and replenish their stocks of PGMs. This is about as permanent a victory as the Paris Peace Accords or "Mission Accomplished", but that is the way it is.

[CrowBat]

Everyone wants to have their own Holocaust it seems whilst denying the real one that took place.

Should this be an attempt to explain I'm denying the Holocaust (of Jews, Roma and few other ethnic and religious, as well as political groups, and by German Nazis and allies in 1930s and 1940s), our exchange is herewith over.

[CrowBat]

Another wiki-leaks affair: Somebody stole the super-modern, ultra-secret digital map of Syria, used by the CENTCOM for its operations there - and posted it on the internet....

[Azor]

Should this be an attempt to explain I'm denying the Holocaust (of Jews, Roma and few other ethnic and religious, as well as political groups, and by German Nazis and allies in 1930s and 1940s), our exchange is herewith over.

You forgot to include Polish and Soviet civilians and prisoners of war.

Often you will find that the same people claiming a "Holocaust" of women (witch trials), Arabs (by Europeans and later Israelis), and Native Americans (by Europeans, Americans and Canadians), seem to want to refute some or all aspects of the Shoah.

For instance, Russians have inflated the number of Soviet civilians and POWs who were mass murdered by the Germans, by including non-Soviet victims as well as those of Stalin's brutality, which continued unabated throughout the war. Russians have then taken the Soviet total and claimed it as a Russian total. Yet Holocaust denial and anti-Semitism abounds in Russia, and no effort is made to recognize the greater suffering of Belorussians, Ukrainians and Kazakhs, or Russia's own genocides against non-Russians.

There is a race among the groups of the living to make claims upon the dead - real and imagined - whilst denying other groups their own claims.

Do you truly think that I am accusing you of Holocaust denial? Or are you looking for an excuse to disengage?

What I am accusing you of is playing fast and loose with the history of mass murder, purely to deflect from a series of genocides perpetrated by the Turks in the 20th Century, which continue in the form of low-level war.

[SWJ Blog]

On Syria Fronts, US-Backed Forces Probe Raqqa Defenses, Iran-Allied Fighters Gain Key Foothold

Entry Excerpt:



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Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

[OUTLAW 09]

HAS Assad again used CWs.....


Jobar News map of the military situation in Jobar Neighborhood. Seems some kind of chemical weapon has been allegedly used on 2 fronts.

[Azor]

From the Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/bitter...rds-real-harm/

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 84
By: Pavel Felgenhauer

Introduction:

A series of military incidents involving the United States, Russia, and their allies in Syria and the Baltic region have additionally hurt already strained US-Russian relations. As sign of its acute displeasure, Moscow canceled high-level talks between Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and US Undersecretary of State Thomas Shannon, which were planned for June 23, in St. Petersburg. Ryabkov lambasted the US for adding 38 individuals and organizations to its list of sanctions “as a political gift” to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who visited Washington this week (June 20) and met with President Donald Trump at the White House. According to Ryabkov, “There is nothing to discuss fruitfully with Washington today.” Ryabkov accused the Trump administration of supporting “the party of war in Kiyv” and of “following the lead of prominent Russophobes in the US Congress” (Mid.ru, June 21). The cancelation of the St. Petersburg round of Ryabkov-Shannon talks calls into question plans for the first face-to-face meeting between Trump and President Vladimir Putin, on the sidelines of the upcoming (July 7–8) G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany.

The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed displeasure over:

• The shooting down of the Syrian Su-22 on June 18
• The US base near al-Tanf, with special forces and HIMARS artillery
• The shooting down of two Iranian UAVs
• The bombing of pro-Assad armored columns (twice)

However, Russia has not attempted to hold U.S. aircraft operating around al-Tanf at risk...

[OUTLAW 09]

From the Jamestown Foundation: https://jamestown.org/program/bitter...rds-real-harm/

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 14 Issue: 84
By: Pavel Felgenhauer

Introduction:



The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed displeasure over:

• The shooting down of the Syrian Su-22 on June 18
• The US base near al-Tanf, with special forces and HIMARS artillery
• The shooting down of two Iranian UAVs
• The bombing of pro-Assad armored columns (twice)

However, Russia has not attempted to hold U.S. aircraft operating around al-Tanf at risk...

JUST a side comment...what we are actually seeing in Syria is not an Obama nor a Trump and his merry band FP....

We are seeing a SecDef Mattis FP backed up by AIM 9s.....and specific Iranian counter air strikes.....to enforce a red line policy.

The Mattis FP problem begins the exact day he attempts to take back under control those advanced weapon systems given to the PKK....after Raqqa...

[OUTLAW 09]

Rebels have killed an #Assad Brigadier General and many other #Assad fighters at #Madinat_al_Baath today.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=33...5469&z=14&m=b#

[OUTLAW 09]

Syria: Rebels launched the offensive "Road to #Damascus" in #Quneitra Province. #Israel has destroyed regime artillery and tanks today.

Rebel gains Ba'ath City #Quneitra:
• Bridge Detachment
• Mubashrat al-Hajar
• Fire Tower
• Quarries
• al-'Arbaein
• Governate Building

Israeli aircraft targeted two syrian tanks and other Syrian army Sites in Quneitra

IDF
✔
@IDFSpokesperson
In response to over 10 projectiles launched from Syria, IAF aircraft targeted origin of launches & 2 Syrian tanks

[Azor]

JUST a side comment...what we are actually seeing in Syria is not an Obama nor a Trump and his merry band FP....

We are seeing a SecDef Mattis FP backed up by AIM 9s.....and specific Iranian counter air strikes.....to enforce a red line policy.

The Mattis FP problem begins the exact day he attempts to take back under control those advanced weapon systems given to the PKK....after Raqqa...

I would disagree that Mattis has a specific foreign policy that he is executing. However, Mattis is an obviously good interlocutor with the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Combatant Commanders. What we are observing is a continuation of Obama's policies with regard to Syria, albeit with the military empowered tactically.

Where Trump and Obama differ is on Iran. I doubt that Trump will unilaterally abrogate the JCPOA, given the advice of the foreign policy, intelligence and defense communities, however, he will not kowtow to Iran's adventures in Iraq and Syria merely to ensure that Iran upholds it.

[OUTLAW 09]

I would disagree that Mattis has a specific foreign policy that he is executing. However, Mattis is an obviously good interlocutor with the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Combatant Commanders. What we are observing is a continuation of Obama's policies with regard to Syria, albeit with the military empowered tactically.

Where Trump and Obama differ is on Iran. I doubt that Trump will unilaterally abrogate the JCPOA, given the advice of the foreign policy, intelligence and defense communities, however, he will not kowtow to Iran's adventures in Iraq and Syria merely to ensure that Iran upholds it.

Mattis is effectively now driving Syrian FP tactically speaking just as Trump has given DoD the authority to drive the new changes in AFG...WHY because if it goes south he can claim DoD was the cause not Trump.....

Definitely not following the Obama model...