To Outlaw 09 RE: Syria
RE: Russian Ceasefires
The problem is more than merely one of the Russians violating their own ceasefires. Their reliance upon disparate state and non-state actors as force multipliers – from allies of convenience such as Iran and the remnant of Syria, to local criminals, mercenaries and insurgents – has enabled Russia to project power, but at the expense of central control. Indeed, the approach that Moscow takes to expand and deepen its rule in Chechnya, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Crimea and Donbas, is the same approach that Putin uses to hold onto power in the Kremlin. The ceasefire violations at Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo were ordered directly from the Kremlin, which held escalation dominance over Ukraine. However, Moscow cannot fully control the insurgents in Donbas, let alone Teheran or Damascus, who have more skin in the game in Syria.
The issue with the “ceasefires” in Syria is less one of Russia violating them and more one of Syria and Iran ignoring them. Russian-sponsored ceasefires in Syria are about as impactful as the UN’s mediation efforts. Note that Russia appeared genuinely taken aback by the Sarin attack at Khan Shaykhun, and has not challenged Israeli strikes on IRGC and Hezbollah targets in Syria with Russian forces in the vicinity.
The discussions in Astana only serve to make Moscow appear more indispensable to peace in Syria than it actually is, and to regain the public relations initiative after the TLAM strike on Shayrat.
RE: Turkey and the “Safe Zones”
This is a signal of displeasure with the CJTF-OIR providing CAS to YPG forces, and to possibly help Ankara target the YPG more freely. Ankara worries that a conflict between the TAF/FSA with the YPG will lead to U.S. interference, as exemplified by the Marines attempting to establish a buffer between the YPG and the TAF/FSA.
Stay on topic please. There are numerous other soapbox threads for you.Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
According to U.S. sources, the SDF is comprised of 30% to 45% Arab fighters. Any ideas as to the demographics of the SDF?
Are you claiming that the YPG is comprised of 90% Turkish Kurds?
I have seen Kurds up to no good myself, but that does not mean that the Kurds in Turkey should have no self-determination.
The Turks have oppressed the Kurds for five centuries. This oppression includes Turkish ethnic supremacism, endemic corruption, authoritarian rule and disrespect for human rights in general. In particular, Turkey has used paramilitaries against the Kurds in a campaign of state terrorism. These Turkish paramilitaries are not dissimilar to the Loyalist/Unionist paramilitaries of Northern Ireland: they have overlapping memberships with the security services, they engage in narcotics trafficking, extortion and other crimes and they carry out extrajudicial killings, and they are protected by the state from prosecution.
As for the incident in Hanover, what exactly are you referring to? Can you be sure that it was the PKK as opposed to non-PKK Kurds in Germany?
I will reply on the Russo-Ukrainian War thread in the interests of staying on-topic.
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